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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT Northeast Version – January 2014 Data Office of Enforcement Federal Energy Regulatory Commission February 2014
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OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

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Page 1: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

OE ENERGYMARKET SNAPSHOTNortheast Version – January 2014 Data

Office of EnforcementFederal Energy Regulatory Commission

February 2014

Page 2: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Natural Gas and Fuels Markets

Page 3: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Northeast Annual Average Day-Ahead Prices

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data 2026

Notes:

Average Day Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

Algonquin Citygates

Transco Zone 6 NY

Transco Zone 6 Non‐NY

Columbia Applachia

Henry Hub

Annual 5.01 5.01 4.69 4.07 3.98Summer  4.56 4.55 4.41 4.21 4.14Winter 2011/2012 4.00 3.59 3.09 2.77 2.74Annual 3.97 3.27 2.98 2.78 2.75Summer  3.25 2.86 2.83 2.71 2.69Winter 2012/2013 9.53 6.63 4.10 3.51 3.47Annual 6.97 5.07 4.03 3.70 3.70Summer  4.25 3.92 3.84 3.73 3.75Winter 2013/2014 15.13 12.73 11.11 4.15 4.14

Annual 24.66 27.21 23.27 4.72 4.69Summer 

Winter 2014/2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

 YTD

Updated 2/18/2014

Page 4: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Northeast Day-Ahead Prices

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data 2030

Notes:

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Spot

Day

-Ahe

ad P

rices

($/M

MBt

u)

Transco Zone 6 NYTransco Z6 Non-NYColumbia TCO PoolAlgonquin City Gates

$0$10$20$30$40$50

2011 2012 2013 20

30 Day Moving Avg

2/18/2014Updated

Page 5: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Northeast Monthly Average Basis Value To Henry Hub

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Average Basis to Henry Hub

Source: Derived from ICE data 2031

Notes:

Updated 2/18/2014

-$5.00

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

2012 2013 2014

Aver

age

Day-

Ahea

d Ba

sis(

$/M

MBt

u)

Avg Mthly Transco Zone 6 NY BasisAvg Mthly Transco Z6 Non-NY BasisAvg Mthly Columbia TCO Pool BasisAvg Mthly Algonquin Citygate Basis

Page 6: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Northeast Day-Ahead Basis

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Yearly Hub Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data 2032

Notes:

Updated 2/18/2014

-$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Day A

head

Bas

is ($

/MM

Btu)

Transco Zone 6 NY Basis Transco Z6 Non-NY BasisColumbia TCO Pool Basis Algonquin City Gates Basis

$0

$5

$10

$15

2011 2012 2013 20

30D Moving Avg

Page 7: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Daily Northeast Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

Northeast Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

Note: Data derived from interstate natural gas pipeline flows.22050Updated: February 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Volu

me

(Bcf

d)

2009-2013 Range 2014

Page 8: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Northeast Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

Northeast Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024Updated: February 2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

MM

cf/m

onth

2009-13 Range

2014

Page 9: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Electricity Markets

Page 10: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Extreme Weather Causes Record Gas and Power Prices in Jan.

Northeast Electricity Market Overview: Record Gas and Power Prices

Updated February 18, 2014

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800 Gas D

ay Ahead Index IC

E ($/MM

Btu)

Pow

er A

vera

ge R

eal T

ime

Peak

Pric

e ($

/MW

h)

PJM Western Hub

Transco Z6 non-NY

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Page 11: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

Fuel Oil and Natural Gas Prices Invert

Northeast Electricity Market: Fuel Oil Viability

Updated February 18, 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

12/2

/13

12/9

/13

12/1

6/13

12/2

3/13

12/3

0/13

1/6/

14

1/13

/14

1/20

/14

1/27

/14

$/M

MB

tu

New York Harbor No. 2 Fuel Oil

Transco Z6 NY Natural Gas

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Page 12: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

PJM Transmission Congestion Rises Sharply

Northeast Electricity Market: Day Ahead Congestion

Updated February 18, 2014

-$300

-$200

-$100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400D

ay-A

head

Con

gest

ion

($/M

Wh)

MID-ATL/APS AECO BGEDPL JCPL METEDPECO PEPCO PPLPENELEC PSEG RECOAPS AEP COMEDDAY DOM DUQATSI DEOK EKPC

Source: Derived from PJM Data

Page 13: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

PJM Real Time Prices—Two Year History

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Real Time Prices

Updated February 18, 2014

Page 14: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

PJM System Daily Average Load —Two Year History

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Average Daily Load

Updated February 18, 2014

Page 15: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

NYISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Real Time Prices

Updated February 18, 2014

Page 16: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

NYISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year History

Northeast Electricity Market: NYISO Average Daily Load

Updated February 18, 2014

Page 17: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

ISO-NE Real Time Prices—Two Year History

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Real Time Prices

Updated February 18, 2014

Page 18: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

ISO-NE System Daily Average Load —Two Year History

Northeast Electricity Market: ISO-NE Average Daily Load

Updated February 18, 2014

Page 19: OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2012 2013 2014 Average Day-Ahead Basis($/MMBtu) Avg

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

PJM Western Hub Forward Prices Move Up

Northeast Electricity Market: PJM Forward Prices

Updated February 18, 2014