Top Banner
1 130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx 5t h International Forum ATOMEXPO, St. Petersburg, June 26, 2013 Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for SMR Technology
17

Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for SMR Technology

Dec 31, 2015

Download

Documents

Cora Briggs

Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for SMR Technology. 5t h International Forum ATOMEXPO , St. Petersburg, June 26, 2013. Worldwide nuclear capacity is concentrated in 4 locations: US, France / Europe, Japan, and Russia. World mapping of nuclear installed base – May 2013. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

1130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

5th International Forum ATOMEXPO, St. Petersburg, June 26, 2013

Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for SMR Technology

Page 2: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

2130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

Worldwide nuclear capacity is concentrated in 4 locations: US, France / Europe, Japan, and Russia

Nuclear Plants

> 384 operating reactors in 30 countries if excluding Japan (vs 444 reactors in 30 countries before the Fukushima disaster)

> 322 GWe net capacity if excluding Japan (vs 373 pre-Fukushima )

> 58% of reactors located in the USA and Western Europe

> Nuclear reactors in Japan still idled as of now (last operating one put in maintenance early May 2012)

KEY FIGURES

World mapping of nuclear installed base – May 2013

Nuclear Countries

Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis

Page 3: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

3130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

10 (9,101)Ukraine 15 (13,168)United Kingdom 16 (10,058)Canada 18 (12,569)India 20 (4,281)China (incl.Taiwan) 21 (16,671)Korea RO (South) 23 (19,921)Russian Federation 33 (23,917)Japan 37 (32,970)France 58 (63,110)United States 104 (98,658)

Slovenia1 (452)Netherlands

Iran 1 (915)

1 (676)Armenia 1 (376)Argentina 2 (935)Bulgaria 2 (1,906)Brazil 2 (1,896)South Africa 2 (1,842)Romania 2 (1,305)Mexico 2 (1,600)Pakistan 3 (725)Hungary 4 (1,889)Finland 4 (2,676)Slovak Republic 4 (1,656)Switzerland 5 (3,220)Czech Republic 6 (3,707)Belgium 7 (5,755)Spain 8 (7,442)Germany 9 (12,008)Sweden

MAJORNUCLEAR COUNTRIES

SMALLNUCLEAR COUNTRIES

More than 80 per cent of installed nuclear capacity is concentrated in 10 countries

∑ = 384 reactors322 GWe

(if excl. Japan)

∑ = 421 reactors355 GWe

Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis

Country breakdown of installed base – May 2012 view [# units ; MWe net]

Page 4: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

4130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

Since Fukushima, the operating nuclear base has decreased by 5% - restarts of idled reactors in Japan is on Abe´s political agenda

> Including Japanese reactors damaged by the tsunami or shutdown on a long term basis by government request, we observe a net substraction of 24 GW (29 reactors) to the operating base

> Shutdowns are concentrated in Japan (14.6 GW, 18 reactors), Germany (8.3 GW, 8 reactors) and the UK (0.9 GW, 3 reactors)

> Additions are in China (1.6 GW, 2 reactors), Iran (0.9 GW, 1 reactor), Russia (0.5 GW, 1 reactor) and South Korea (1.9 GW, 2 reactors)

421629444

Operating reactors in May 2012

CommissionningShutdowns / long term suspensions

Operating reactors pre Fukushima

Operating reactors in May 2012

355 GW

Commissionning

373 GW

Operating reactors pre Fukushima

5 GW24 GW

Shutdowns / long term suspensions

Number and capacity of nuclear reactors worldwide

Source: WNA, WNN, IAEA, Roland Berger analysis

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

# reactors GWe

Page 5: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

5130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

Overall, the Fukushima impact will remain small on installed base, but more significant on new build– over 60% delays in "low" scenario

29

66

29

No impact

Life span extensionnot granted

Early shutdown

Low

444

349(79%)

High

444

414(93%)

1

[# reactors]

62Underconstruction

Announced or planned

2010projects

310

248

50

351

No impact

Delayed> 2 years

Delayed> 5 years

Frozenover 2030

Cancelled

Low

310

57(18%)

142

10

High

310

145(47%)

143

9 10

[# reactors]

Operating in 2010

444

Impact on NEW BUILD

Typical life span: 40 years. Typical extension: 20 additional years

Impact on INSTALLED BASE

Source: Roland Berger nuclear database

Page 6: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

6130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

The Nuclear market is still expanding. 60 GW under construction worldwide, thereof 75% in BRIC countries

France

1 (1,245)

1 (1,650)

2 (630)

Iran

1 (1,600)

Brazil

1 (915)

Finland

Argentina 1 (692)

Pakistan

Slovak Republic 2 (840)

Ukraine 2 (1,900)

United States 3 (3,565)

Korea RO (South) 4 (5,050)

India 7 (5,074)

Russian Federation 10 (8,714)

China (incl. Taiwan) 28 (29,234)

∑ = 62 reactors60 GWe

Country breakdown of the NPP under construction – May 2012 [# units ; MWe net]

> Most of NPPs under construction are located in Asia and Eastern Europe – China (mainland and Taiwan) is the main

country for reactors under construction– Significant activity in Russia, South

Korea and India– Very few projects in developed countries

> All NPP under construction should be in operation by 2020

COMMENTS

Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis

Page 7: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

7130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

China is expected to rely strongly on nuclear energy in the future – 40 reactors in construction at the end of 2012

Scenario considered for Greater China

100

0

60

20

80

40

93

27

93

26

93

25

93

24

93

23

93

22

94

21

94

20

95

19

95

18

96

17

97

16

97

15

96

2030

88

13

822)

2012 14

93

29

93

28

611)

OperatingUnder constructionLOW

HIGH

100

0

80

40

60

20

99

27

99

26

99

25

99

24

99

23

99

22

99

21

99

20

99

19

99

18

99

17

99

16

99

15

98

2030

90

13

84

2012 14

99

29

99

28

611)

Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database

CHANGES IN GREATER CHINA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]

Recent development > Stress tests following Fukushima: small impact on

projects under construction, delay on planned reactors

> Taiwan announced a progressive phase out> 2 new reactors completed in mainland since

Fukushima, adding 1650 MWe to the total capacity

Roland Berger scenarios> Reactors under construction: delay assumed vs

WNA expected date of completion (2 years in low scenario, 1 year in high scenario)

> Reactors planned or announced: new estimated starting date for construction (based on WNA if available, RB estimates otherwise) + 6 years estimated to complete construction + delay due to potential post-Fukushima potential measures (2 years in low scenario, 1 year in high scenario)

OVERVIEW ON GREATER CHINA CURRENT STATUS

1) 28 reactors already in construction in May, 12 more started by the end of 2012. 21 reactors operating 2) 2 reactors under construction in Taiwan expected to be cancelled in RB low scenario

Page 8: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

8130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

Russia is systematically pursuing its nuclear agenda with a dual focus on domestic and export markets

Scenario considered for the Russia

100

80

60

40

20

0

2030

85

29

85

28

85

27

83

26

74

25

65

24

63

23

61

22

60

21

59

20

59

19

51

18

51

17

51

16

50

15

50

14

46

13

45

2012

43

OperatingUnder construction

100

0

40

60

80

20

20

59

19

51

18

51

17

51

16

50

15

50

14

46

13

45

2012

43

8383

28

61 65

29 2030

83

22

6374

26 2725

83

60

21 24

59

23

1) Ukraine, Belarus, India, China, Turkey, VIetnam, Bangladesh

Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database

LOW

HIGH

Recent development > Following Fukushima, authorities announced their

intention to improve security – back-up power and water supply as main concerns – and to extend the life of the existing reactors

> Kalinin 4 is operating since November 2011> Russia is strongly pushing exports in nuclear

energy, with plans in 7 countries at least1)

Roland Berger scenarios> No delays for reactors under construction> 2 years delays in low scenario for "planned" or

"announced" reactors

OVERVIEW ON RUSSIA CURRENT STATUS CHANGES IN RUSSIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]

Page 9: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

9130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

India sees strong nuclear development activity with installed capacity expected to double until 2030

Scenario considered for India

80

60

40

20

0

24

49

23

49

22

49

21

49

20

49

19

49

18

50

17

44

16

39

15

36

14

31

13

30

2012

27

49

26

49

25

49

2030

49

29

49

28

49

27

OperatingUnder construction

80

60

40

20

0

2030

62

29

62

28

62

27

62

26

62

25

62

24

62

23

62

22

62

21

62

20

62

19

49

18

50

17

44

16

39

15

36

14

31

13

30

2012

27

Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database

LOW

HIGH

Recent development > India has affirmed plans to boost nuclear capacity to

63 GW by 2032, doubling current capacity in service by 2015

> 2 reactors entered recently into construction: Kakrapar 4 and Rajasthan 7 (630 MW each)

> Some delays are expected for reactors under construction due to public protests (Kudankalam 1&2). All reactors being built in India are potentially concerned by such delays as India is a democratic country with strong power given to local authorities

Roland Berger scenarios> High: considering delays, about a half of the

reactors under construction or planned enter service by 2030

> Low: all reactors are somehow delayed

OVERVIEW ON INDIA CURRENT STATUS CHANGES IN INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]

Page 10: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

10130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

BRICs are also at the forefront regarding SMRs; global market promises ~40 GW potential for SMRs in 2020-2030

14,0

8,4

5,5

2,9

41,1

0,9

0,8

0,7

1,6

14,7

9,2

1,5

2,52,3

Market potential1)2)3) – selected top markets [GW]

Desalination Electricity, heat

1) Market share in most countries – 10-15% (Russia & Kazakhstan – 50%)2) Based on opinions of 3 independent experts, IEA, specialized national institutions, UxC, WNA3) USA, Canada, Saudi Arabia – are also large markets, however were not studied in detail due to "Russian" focus

Source: Roland Berger

Page 11: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

11130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

North, North-east and South are most likely areas for SMR in China

Geography of SMR – China

Source: Roland Berger

COMMENTS

> North, North-east and South of China have the largest potential for SMR

> These regions have– A number of large urban centers –

concentration of consumers– Lower density of infrastructure

(electric networks, gas pipelines, railroads, desalination facilities, cogeneration facilities) – demand for small / medium capacity units

– Locations with energy tariffs above average (71 USD / MWh – blue dots) – SMR can be competitive

– Acceptable seismic and other requirements

Harbin

Beijing

TianjinTaiyuan

Jiangsu

Shanghai

Changchun

Changsha

Chongqing

Dalian

Fuzhou

Guangzhou

Guiyang

Haikou

HangzhouHefei

Hohhot

Jinan

Kunming

Lanzhou

Nangchan

LinxiaNanjing

Nanning

Ningbo

Qingdao

Shenyang

Shijiazhuang

Shenzhen

Wuhan

Xi'an

Xining

Yinchuan

Xiamen

Page 12: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

12130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

North-west, Urals, Siberia have the highest potential for SMR in Russia

Geography of SMR – Russia

Source: Roland Berger

COMMENTS

> Most likely areas in Russia– North-west– Urals– Siberia

> Prerequisites– Vast areas and distance

of industrial centers from main grid – conductive for SMR

– Locations with energy tariffs above average (58 USD / MWh – green areas) – SMR can be competitive

– Acceptable seismic and other requirements

Astrakhan' Oblast'

BelgorodOblast'

Murmansk Oblast'

Republic of Karelia

Dagestan Republic

North Ossetia

Orenburg Oblast'

Republic of Bashkortostan

YaNAO

KhMAO

Sverdlovsk Oblast'

Irkutsk Oblast'

Krasnoyarskiy Krai

Kemerovo Oblast'

Novosibirsk Oblast'Republic of Buryatia

Republic of Khakassia

MOSCOW

Page 13: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

13130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

There is a number of major industrial projects which could be clear clients for SMR in Russia

PRO

JEC

TS

2015

-203

0A

DD

ITIO

NA

L

Russia – Selected project as potential clients for SMR 2015-2030

Source: Roland Berger

> In Russia demand is expected from– New industrial clusters

– large power demand, often away from main grid, a number of projects already in the pipeline

– Large transport infrastructure projects – large power demand

– Deficit regions – such as Belgorod, Kaluga

COMMENTS

Example Industry

Diamond field (Yakutiya, Krasnoyarsky region Mining

Uranium mine, Elkonsky GMK (Yakutiya) Mining

Iron ore mining (Buryaniya) Mining

Gold mine "Peschanka" (Chukotsky region) Mining

Compensation for power deficit in Belgorod region Energy

Compensation for power deficit in Kaluga region Energy

Page 14: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

14130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

There is a number players currently trying to develop an SMR technology

14

Various SMR technologies under development [for SMR <350 MW]

1) Light Water Reactors with Water Under Pressure 2) Heavy Water Reactors 3) High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors 4) Fast Neutron Reactor with lead-bismuth coolant 5) Fast Neutron Reactor with natrium coolant 6) At the exit of active zone 7) CG – cogeneration; DS - desalination; H – production of hydrogen

SMR

CNP-300

SMART

SMR 200

nuScale

mPower

HI-SMUR

AHWR

HTR-PM

GTHTR-300

EM2

SVBR-100

Hyperion

PRISM

4S

CAREM-25

Type

LWR WUP1)

LWR WUP

LWR WUP

LWR WUP

LWR WUP

LWR WUP

LWR WUP

HWR2)

HTGCR3)

HTGCR

HTGCR

FNR LB4)

FNR LB

FNR N5)

FNR N

Electric capacity

25 MW

325 MW

100 MW

225 MW

45 MW

125 MW

145 MW

300 MW

105 MW

285 MW

240 MW

100 MW

25 MW

310 MW

10 MW

Efficiency

23%

33%

30%

28%

28%

31%

31%

31%

42%

48%

48%

36%

36%

37%

33%

Coolant temperature6)

325 °C

315 °C

325 °C

n.a.

290 °C

320 °C

305 °C

285 °C

750 °C

850 °C

850 °C

480 °C

500 °C

500 °C

355 °C

Useful life

60 years

40 years

60 years

60 years

60 years

60 years

60 years

100 years

40 years

60 years

60 years

60 years

60 years

60 years

30 years

Fuel cycle

Open

Open

Open

Open

Open

Open

Open

Open / closed

Open

Open / closed

Open

Open / closed

Open

Closed

Open

Refuelling

11 months

14 months

36 months

24 months

24 months

60 months

36 months

n.a.

n.a.

24 months

360 months

84 months

120 months

24 months

360 months

Non-electric application7)

DS

-

DS

-

DS + CG

-

-

DS

-

DS + CG + H

CG

DS + CG + H

DS + CG + H

-

DS + CG + H

Construction time

60 months

72 months

36 months

36 months

36 months

36 months

36 months

72 months

48 months

48 months

60 months

36-48 mnths

48 months

48 months

36 months

$3500 / kW

Investments

$2800 / kW

$5500 / kW

n.a.

$4000 / kW

$5200 / kW

$4700 / kW

$3500 / kW

$2500 / kW

n.a.

n.a.

$4500 / kW

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Page 15: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

15

15130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

Russian SMR is likely to be among the first on the market – reference project scheduled for 2016-2018

SMR projects

PRISM (USA), 4S (Japan)FNR with N5)

Hyperion (USA)SVBR-100 (Russia)FNR with LB4)

GTHTR-300 (Japan), EM2 (USA)HTR-PM (China)HTGCR3)

GENERATION IVAHWR (India)HWR2)

HI-SMUR (USA)SMR 200, nuScale, mPower (USA)SMART (S. Korea)CAREM-25 (Argentina)CNP-300 (China)LWR with WUP1)

GENERATION III

SMR development plans [for SMR <350 MW]

Source: Roland Berger

1) Light Water Reactors with Water Under Pressure 2) Heavy Water Reactors 3) High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors 4) Fast Neutron Reactor with lead-bismuth coolant 5) Fast Neutron Reactor with natrium coolant 6) Exceptions – CNP-300 (2 units in Pakistan) and HTR-PM (up to 18 units х 210 MW in China)

COMMENTS

> Advantages of Generation SMR IV– High passive safety– Advanced technical/economic

parameters (Gen III show only minor improvement against their "large brothers")

> Most Generation IV are not expected until 2020 – except Russian project

> Russian project could be interested to find a partner for joint promotion on the international markets

Project startConstruction of reference project

LicensingCommercial orders / projects

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Page 16: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

16130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx

Financing risks and requirements are substantial; solutions need to include a wide spectre of instruments and contributions

Nuclear projects carry a unique financial risk profile – sheer project volume, long investment periods, widespread overruns of time and financial budgets, market uncertainty, political discontinuity, financial capacity and solidity of host countries

Financial risks are particularly severe for private sector nuclear players (financing capacity, credit rating), and for all investments "abroad"

Financing solutions 1 – project volume and long investment periods: building of consortia (one operator, 4-6 co-investors – strategic and financial), mergers & acquisitions, government incentives during construction phase or upon commissioning (example: US renewables): tax credits, free CO2 certificate allocation, capacity payments

Financing solutions 2 – market uncertainty and political discontinuity: capacity payments, fixed power tariffs, debt/mezzanine financing with success-based interest rates, substantial financial commitment of host countries (state, institutions, private investors)

Financial solutions 3 – financial capacity and solidity of host countries: nuclear portfolio diversification, guarantees by international institutions, limited liability constructs

Source: Roland Berger

Page 17: Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for  SMR  Technology

17130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx