Norwegian presentation at the in- session workshop at AWG 2 Harald Dovland Ministry of the Environment.

Norwegian presentation at the in-session workshop at AWG 2

Harald DovlandMinistry of the Environment

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Content

• Long-term goal• Effect on emissions of existing policy instruments• Results a Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions

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Important input for defining long-term goal

• IPCC’s third assessment report (TAR)• Report from the Exeter Conference “Avoiding

Dangerous Climate Change” (1-3 February 2005)

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How to formulate a long term objective?

• Concentration of GHG in the atmosphere? • Global Emissions of GHG?• Temperature increase? • Sea level rise?• …….

• The Norwegian Government has chosen to use global temperature increase. A main reason is that this objective is relatively easy to communicate.

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Long term goal – “aspirational goal”

• The global mean temperature should not increase more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial level.

• BUT:– This goal is not completely “safe” – it does not

prevent negative effects– It is a goal that will require significant reductions

in GHG emissions in coming decades, thus being difficult to fulfil

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Long term goal (continued)

• Jim Hansen et al quoted in New Scientist 30 September 2006: “Further global warming of 1ºCdefines a critical threshold. Beyond that we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know.”

• Ref: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 103, p14288

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Effect of policy instruments on Norwegian GHG emissions in 2005 (55 Mt) compared to 1990 (50 Mt)Policy instrument Effect (Mt CO2)

2005

CO2 tax 3.8

Requirement to collect landfill gas 0.5

Other measures in the waste sector 0.25

Tax and recycling schemes on HFC 0.3

Agreement with aluminium sector 1.4 - 4.0

VOC regulations 0.22

Voluntary reductions SF6 and N2O 0.96

Emission trading scheme 2005-07 0-0.5

Total 7.43 – 10.03(15-20%)

Greenhouse gas emissions in the past and in the Commission’s reference path, 1990–2050

Electricity production

Oil and gas activities

Process industry

Transportation

Heating

Agriculture, waste

MtCO2-eq. per year

Greenhouse gas emissions in the past, in the reference path, and in the proposed low-

emission path 1990–2050MtCO2-eq. per year

-CO2 capture and storage from gas- or coal fired power plants, new renewable energy

-Electrification of offshore activities -CO2 capture and storage from industry, process improvements

-Biofuels, low- and zero-emission vehicles and ships

-Improved energy efficiency and biomass-Methane capture

Reference path

Low-emission path

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Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions

• Transportation

– Phasing in of low- and zero-emission vehicles, such as hybrid cars, light diesel cars, electric cars, and fuel-cell cars.

– Phasing in of CO2-neutral fuels, such as bioethanol, biodiesel, biogas and hydrogen.

– Reduction of transportation demands through improved logistics and urban planning.

– Development and phasing in of low-emission ships.

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Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions

• Electricity production

– Expansion of “new renewable” energy through construction of wind and small hydro-electric power stations.

– Implementation of carbon capture and storage from gas-fired and coal-fired power plants.

– Upgrading and improved efficiency of the electricity grid to reduce loss in the grid and give smaller power plants better access.

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Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions

• Process industry– Implementation of carbon capture and storage

from industries with large pulse emissions. – Implementation of process improvements in

energy-intensive industries.

• Oil and gas activities

– Electrification of the continental shelf and more facilities located on land.

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Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions

• How much will the general solution cost?

– The Commission’s calculations show that the national costs need not be exorbitant, given that the measures are implemented when the need for renovation arises and as long as climate-friendly solutions are chosen systematically in new investments.

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Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions

• Basic measures

– Implementation of long-term national investment in climate information – a long-lasting climate awareness campaign. Dissemination of accurate and relevant facts about the climate problem and what can be done.

– Investment in the development of climate-friendly technologies through long-term and stable support for the Commission’s technology package. This technology package emphasizes technologies for carbon capture and storage, wind power (especially at sea), pellet and clean-burning woodstoves and fireplaces, biofuels, solar cells, hydrogen technologies, heat pumps, and low-emission ships