Nielsen Global Media - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE · 2019-05-29 · QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT. NOT ALL CONCERNS ARE EQUAL AROUND THE WORLD. BIGGEST AND SECOND BIGGEST

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD

QUARTER 2, 2015

2015 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 2ND EDITION

2 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2

• ConfidenceroseinEuropetoanindexscoreof79—itshighestlevelinfiveyears.

• NorthAmericanconfidenceremainedoptimisticat101butdeclinedfivepointsfromthefirstquarter.

• Asia-Pacificconfidenceheldsteadyat107,thehighestlevelofallregions.

• LatinAmericanconfidencecontinuedtodecline,droppingthreepointsto83—thelowestlevelsince2009.

• MiddleEast/Africaconfidencedeclinedtwopointsto94,asspendingandpersonalfinancesentimentdropped.

• Recessionarysentimentimprovedin78%ofEuropeanmarketsmeasuredbutworsenedthroughoutallotherregions.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVED IN EUROPE IN THE SECOND QUARTER, WHILE IT DECLINED OR REMAINED FLAT IN OTHER REGIONS

Globalconsumerconfidencedeclinedoneindexpointinthesecond

quartertoascoreof96,asoverallsentimentaboutjobprospectsand

personalfinancesdroppedtwoandonepercentagepoint(s),respectively

fromthefirstquarter.Thisnear-baselinescore,whichhasstayed

relativelyconsistentformorethanayear,reflectsanoverallstable

outlook,butunevenperformanceatthecountrylevelincreasedwithin

regions—especiallyinLatinAmericaandtheMiddleEast.

3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Thefindingsinthissurveyare

basedonrespondentswith

onlineaccessin60countries

(unlessotherwisenoted).While

anonlinesurveymethodology

allowsfortremendousscale

andglobalreach,itprovidesa

perspectiveonlyonthehabits

ofexistingInternetusers,not

totalpopulations.Indeveloping

marketswhereonlinepenetration

isstillgrowing,audiencesmay

beyoungerandmoreaffluent

thanthegeneralpopulationof

thatcountry.Inaddition,survey

responsesarebasedonclaimed

behaviorratherthanactual

metereddata.

Regionally,confidencecontinuedtoriseinEurope,increasingtwopointsto

79—itshighestscoresince2010,as65%ofmarketsshowedimprovement

fromthefirstquarter.InAsia-Pacific,confidenceheldsteadyat107,andit

declinedfivepointsinNorthAmerica(101),twopointsintheMiddleEast/

Africa(94)andthreepointsinLatinAmerica(83).

Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,confidenceremainedatnear-and

above-the-baselinelevelsinGermany(97)andtheU.S.(101)despite

quarterlyindexdeclinesofthreeandsixpoints,respectively.InChina(107)

andtheU.K.(99),consumerconfidenceincreasedoneandtwopoints,

respectively,anditincreasedonepointinJapan(83)fromthefirstquarter.

“Contrastswithinandacrossmarketscontinuetobeadominantfeature

oftheglobaleconomy,”saidLouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,

andpresident,TheDemandInstitute.“ConsumerconfidenceinEurozone

marketshasbeenrelativelystable,withthenotableexceptionofGreece.

Whilequantitativeeasingislargelyviewedasdoingasintended,Europe

isnowmovingthroughtheGreekdebtcrisis.Arelativelystrongstarting

pointforconfidencewillsupportconsumerspendingasthecrisisunfolds.

InChina,slowingGDPgrowthsitsalongsideastockmarketthathasbeen

soaring.Confidencehasnotfalteredthereeither,whichbodeswellfor

consumerspendinginthenearterm.Meanwhile,Brazil,withitsunusual

combinationofrecessionandinflation,sawconsumerconfidencedecline

toarecordlowlevelthisquarter.Weexpectthesituationtheretocontinue

toimpactspendingbehavior.”

Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedMay11-29,2015,consumer

confidenceincreasedin27of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(45%).

India’sscoreof131wasthehighestlevelamong60markets,followedby

thePhilippines(122),Indonesia(120)andDenmark(112).ThePhilippines

showedthebiggestquarterlyimprovement,asconfidencethereroseseven

points,andGreeceshowedthebiggestquarterlydeclineof12pointsfrom

thefirstquarter.SouthKoreareportedthelowestscoreof45.

TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal

SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established

in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending

intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin

60countries.

4 QUARTER 2 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.

+7-3

+6-3

-7+1

-2

-1

-8

0

-6

-3

-1

+2

+2

+4

-3

-4

-1

+4

+1

-6-5

-4+3

+5+1+10+3-5-2-4

-1+1

+4-1

+6

-7

-1

+4

+6

+2

+1

+5

-3

+3

+6

-3

+4

+1

-2-2

-4-12

-3

87 SO

UTH

AFRICA 87 TU

RKEY 88

SWED

EN 88

CZECH REPUBLIC

88 NO

RWAY

88 IRELAND

GREECE 53

89 MALAYSIA

ITALY 53

89 AUSTRALIA

HUNGARY 55

PORTUGAL 57

90 NETHERLANDS

CROATIA 59

92 ISRAEL

SLOVENIA

61

93 COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA 62

95 PERU

FRANCE 66

97 GERMANY

FINLAND 66

98 SWITZERLAND

POLAND 70

98 CANADA

SPAIN 72 99 UNITED KINGDOMBULGARIA 73 99 SINGAPORE

SLOVAKIA 75

99 NEW ZEALAND

RUSSIA 78

101 UNITED STATES

ROMANIA 78

102 PAKISTAN

LATVIA 79

104 VIETNAM

BRAZIL 81

105 HONG KONG

ARGENTINA 81

105 SAUDI ARABIA

ESTONIA 82

107 CHIN

A

BELGIUM

83

108 U

NITED ARAB EMIRATES

JAPAN

83

111

THAILA

ND

LITHUANIA

83

112

DENM

ARK

CHIL

E

84

120

INDO

NESIA

TAIW

AN

84

122

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

MEX

ICO

8

4EG

YPT

85

AUST

RIA

8

5

0

SERBIA 53

+1

131

IN

DIA

IND

EX

COU

NTR

Y

LESS

CONFIDENT

MORE CONFIDENT

+7

UKRAINE

48

-1

SOUTH

KOREA

45

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

96 ( -1 change from Q1-2015 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ2-2015 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

GLOBALAVERAGE

5Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

5

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS LINKED TO RETAIL ACTIONSConsumerassessmentsoftheireconomyandtheirownfinancialsituationscanhaveadirectimpactontheirwillingnesstospendandtheirproclivitiestosave.Assuch,thereisarelationshipbetweenchangesinconsumerconfidenceandtheactionsconsumerssaytheytaketosaveonhouseholdexpenses.

“Evenassentimentaboutconsumers’ownpersonalsituationshasriseninrecentyears,thereisstillawidespreadconcernamongconsumersaboutrecession,”saidKeely.“Infact,sixyearsaftertheofficialendoftheGreatRecession,morethanhalf(54%)ofglobalrespondentsstillbelievetheircountryisinrecession.Sowhileglobalconsumerconfidencehasbeenrisingslowlytoreachnearoptimisticlevelsinthepastyear,thereisstillevidencethatconsumersfeeluncertainabouttheircountries’futures.Retailsalesactivityhasbeenslowertorespond,reflectingthatlingeringuncertainty.”

Anemicconsumerspendinglevelsarereflectiveofthefactthatnearlytwo-thirds(65%)ofconsumersaroundtheworldareinasaving—ratherthanaspending—mindset.ThiscautionaryoutlookismostprevalentinLatinAmerica(79%),followedbyMiddleEast/Africa(69%),Asia-Pacific(66%),NorthAmerica(59%)andEurope(58%),asmorethanhalfofrespondentsintheseregionssaytheyareactivelytakingactiontosaveonhouseholdexpensescomparedtoayearago.

Prioritiesonsavingstrategiesdifferacrossregions.

Amongthosewhosaytheyaretakingactionstosave,thetoptwoareasearmarkedforreductionarespendingonclothingandout-of-homeentertainmentcosts.Cuttingbackongasandelectricitycosts,alongwithspendinglessontake-outmealsandswitchingtocheapergrocerybrandsareothertopsavingpriorities.Somewhatmoreprotectedareexpensesthataffecttransportation,annualholidays/vacations,at-homeentertainmentandthereplacementofmajorhouseholdappliances.


Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22015

TOP 5 SAVING STRATEGIES BY REGIONCOMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING ACTIONS

HAVE YOU TAKEN IN ORDER TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES?

ASIA-PACIFIC EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA LATIN AMERICA

NORTH AMERICA

SPEND LESS ON NEW CLOTHES

SAVE ON GAS AND ELECTRICITY

CUT DOWN ON OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT

SWITCH TO CHEAPER GROCERY BRANDS

CUT DOWN ON TAKE-AWAY MEALS

46% 57%

52%

43%

50%

38%

41%

38%

27%

31%

49%

41%

40%

28%

48%

53%

48%

50%

46%

46%

32%

44%

48%

51%

49%


CONCERNS WEIGHING MOST HEAVILY ON CONSUMERS DIFFER AROUND THE WORLDCertainconcernsareuniversal.Worriesaboutthestateoftheeconomy,fearoflosingajoboranxietiesabouthealthissuesaretopconcernsinallregionsoftheworld.Butotherconcernstakeongreatersignificancedependingonwhereyoulive.Understandingtheemotionalburdensthatweighheavilyonconsumersprovideinsightintothefactorsthatcandrivebehavior.

Forexample,debtandincreasingfoodpricesaretopconcernsamongNorthAmericans.Crimeandwork/lifebalancetopthelistofanxietiesinLatinAmerica.Parents’welfareandhappinessisakeyissueforthoseinAsia-PacificandMiddleEast/Africa,andrisingutilitybillsisamajorworryforEuropeans.


NOT ALL CONCERNS ARE EQUAL AROUND THE WORLD

BIGGEST AND SECOND BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS Countries with the highest level for each concern

Q22015 2009

JOBSECURITY Colombia 42%UnitedArabEmirates

50%

WAR Ukraine 56% Israel 9%

THEECONOMY Venezuela 46% Turkey 56%

HEALTH Lithuania 42% Romania 28%

WORK/LIFEBALANCE Portugal 38% Indonesia 33%

CRIME Venezuela 37% Argentina 35%

INCREASINGFOODPRICE Venezuela 33% France 29%

CHILDREN’SEDUCATIONANDWELFARE

Lithuania 31% Hungary 24%

DEBT Greece 30% Romania 29%

INCREASINGUTILITYBILLS Ireland 27% Poland 37%

PARENTS’WELFAREANDHAPPINESS

UnitedArabEmirates

24% Indonesia 25%

TERRORISM France 22% Pakistan 18%

POLITICALSTABILITY Turkey 22% Venezuela 24%

GLOBALWARMING India 19% Norway 11%

INCREASINGFUELPRICES Vietnam 18% U.S. 11%

IMMIGRATION U.K. 16% U.K. 10%

“Demand-drivengrowthstrategiesofconsumer-facingbusinessesarevitalforconnectingtherightproductsandrightcommunicationwiththerightconsumers,”saidKeely.“Strategiesshouldbedevelopedwithanunderstandingofwhatconsumers’concernsandworriesare,whichcaninformbothunmetneedsandproductinnovationopportunities,aswellasdirectionsforbettermessagingtoconsumers.”

Levelsofconcernvarybycountry,andtherelativesignificanceofeachillustratesthemyriadofworriesthataffectconsumersinthegloballandscape.


28%

22%

17%

15%

22%

31%

25%

22%

21%

20%

19%

17%

NOT ALL CONCERNS ARE EQUAL AROUND THE WORLD


BIGGEST AND SECOND BIGGEST CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

ECONOMY 29%

29%

19%

17%

15%

27%

26%

22%

JOB SECURITY ECONOMY

ECONOMY

JOB SECURITY

HEALTH

ECONOMY JOB SECURITY

DEBT

ECONOMY

WORK/LIFE BALANCE

PARENTS’ WELFARE & HAPPINESS CRIME

INCREASING FOOD PRICES

= CONCERN IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN IN OTHER REGIONS.

HEALTH

JOB SECURITY

TERRORISM HEALTH

HEALTH & JOB SECURITY

INCREASING UTILITY BILLS

ASIA-PACIFIC EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA


THE FUTURE IS LOOKING BRIGHTER THROUGHOUT EUROPE Whilerecessionarysentimentlingersformorethanhalfofglobal

respondents(54%),levelsimprovedin31of60countriesfromthefirst

quarter.ThebiggestimprovementscamefromEuropeancountries,with

Russia’srecessionarysentimentdropping16percentagepointsto65%.

WhilerecessionarysentimentlevelsarestillhighthroughoutEurope,

significantquarterlyimprovementsareevidentinAustria,Belgium,

Romania,U.K.,IsraelandSlovenia.

ThesameisnottrueinLatinAmerica,whererecessionarysentimentishigh

inVenezuela(94%),Brazil(90%)andMexico(82%),anditcontinuesto

growinPeru,ChileandColombia.

RecessionarysentimentalsogrewintheU.S.(57%),India(50%)andNew

Zealand(35%)byseven,sixandfivepercentagepoints,respectively,from

thefirstquarter.

RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVES IN EUROPE AND WORSENS IN LATIN AMERICA

BIGGEST RECESSIONARY IMPROVEMENT

GROWING RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT

Q1 2015

Q2 2015 Change

Russia 81% 65% -16%

Austria 69% 61% -8%

Belgium 71% 63% -8%

Romania 54% 48% -6%

U.K. 51% 45% -6%

Israel 59% 53% -6%

Slovenia 83% 77% -6%

Q1 2015

Q2 2015 Change

Peru 46% 56% 10%

Chile 47% 55% 8%

Colombia 59% 66% 7%

Estonia 42% 49% 7%

U.S. 50% 57% 7%

India 44% 50% 6%

Brazil 85% 90% 5%

NewZealand

30% 35% 5%


SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT ARE EVIDENT IN EUROPE ConsumerconfidencegrewthroughouttheEuropeanregioninthe

secondquarter,as21of32markets(65%)weremoreoptimisticthan

atthestartoftheyear.ConfidenceinGermany,theregion’slargest

economy,declinedthreeindexpointsto97—thefirstdeclineinayear.In

theU.K.,confidenceincreasedtwopointsto99—thesixthconsecutive

quarterofincreases.

“Germanconsumerconfidenceshowedaslightsetbackinthesecond

quarter,butpersistentlylowinterestratesandstableeconomicoutput

areindicativeofaconsumerclimatethatisgenerallypositive,”said

IngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Positivelabor

marketdevelopmentscontinueinthecountry,andsentimenttowardjob

prospectsremainsstrong.Whileconcernsaboutterrorismdeclinedin

thelastthreemonths,itremainsatopanxietyforconsumers,aswellas

worriesabouthealthandincreasingutilityprices.”

“IntheU.K.,wageinflationisstartingtooutstrippriceinflationfor

thefirsttimeinyears,inflationandmortgageratesareathistorically

lowlevelsandunemploymentisfallingsteadily,whichallcombinefor

amorepositiveconsumeroutlook,”saidSteveSmith,marketleader,

NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Whiledisposableincomeandjobsecurityare

recovering,theconsumerhasnotyetreturnedtospendthriftways.The

volumeoffast-movingconsumergoodssoldbythemajorsupermarkets

salesaregrowingslightly,andsomebrandsarenowseeingsmall

volumeuplift.Theyarestillunderpressure,however,asdiscounters

arealsoincreasingmarketshare.Nowisagoodtimetoembarkon

innovation,whichwillhelptodrivefuturebusinessgrowth.”

Regionally,confidenceincreasedmostintheUkraine(48),risingseven

indexpointsfromthefirstquarter,butstillleavingthecountryfarbelow

100,theequilibriumpointofpessimism/optimism.Denmark’sscoreof

112—anincreaseofsixpoints—isthecountry’shighestlevelsincethird-

quarter2009.Russiaalsoincreasedsixpointsto78,asjobprospects

andimmediatespendingintentionsgrewsevenandfourpercentage

points,respectively.France’sscoreof66,ariseofsixpoints,isthe

country’shighestscoresincesecond-quarter2011.


“IntheUkraine,agovernmentceasefiretruceinFebruaryandamore

stablecurrencybudgetratelikelycontributedtotheriseinoptimismin

thesecondquarter,butconsumerconfidencelevelsarehistoricallylow,”

saidTatianaBessmertnaya,marketleader,NielsenUkraineandBelarus.

“Whilesalesoffast-movingconsumergoodsincreased19.3%in2015,

volumehasdeclinedby13.5%,asconsumersarebuyinglessandpaying

moreduetoinflationandcurrencydevaluation.”

“InDenmark,thereisashiftinretailpurchasingpatternsacross

thegrocerytradetowardspremiumproducts,whichmayindicate

consumersarereadytoopentheirwalletsandspendmoneyonmore

expensivegroceriesthanbefore,”saidCecilieWesth,marketleader,

NielsenNordics.“TherearemanysignsthatrecoveryinDenmarkis

ontherighttrack:Factoryproductionhasincreased,labormarketsare

improving,andpersonalfinanceperceptionshaveincreased.”

“Russianconsumersarestartingtorecover,asslowinginflationand

stablecurrencyexchangeratesareprovidingabetterenvironmentfor

spending,”saidKyriakosKyriakou,regionaldirector,NielsenEastern

Europe.“While2015retailsalesthroughMaydeclined7.2%,therate

ofdeclineoverthelastfewmonthshasslowed,asRussiansaremore

confidentintheirjobprospectsandarebecomingmoredaringintheir

spendingaftermonthsofbeinginsaving-mode.”

“InFrance,thedropintheEuroconversationrate,morefavorableoil

pricesandanimprovementinmanufacturingexportsarepositivesigns

thattheFrencheconomyisimproving,”saidLaurentZeller,managing

director,NielsenFrance.“Fast-movingconsumergoodstrendsshow

thatsalesvolumeisgrowing,aslowerfoodpricesaredrivingarisein

consumptionandanupgradetomorepremiumpurchasesinFrench

baskets.”

NotallcountriesinEuropereportedpositiveperformanceinthesecond

quarter,andseveralcountriesreversedtheirfirstquarterconfidence

gains.ConfidenceinGreecedeclinedby12indexpointstoascoreof

53—thelargestquarterlydecreaseofthe60countriesinthesurvey.

ConfidencealsodeclinedbyfourpointsinbothIreland(88)andItaly

(53).


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN 65% OF EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q2

Denmark

U.K.

Switzerland

Germany

Israel

Netherlands

Norway

Ireland

Sweden

CzechRepublic

Turkey

Austria

Lithuania

Belgium

Estonia

Latvia

Russia

Romania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Spain

Poland

Finland

France

Slovenia

Croatia

Portugal

Hungary

Greece

Serbia

Italy

Ukraine

INDEX Q2 2015

CHANGE FROM Q1 2015

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

+6

+2

+4

-3

+4

+1

+3

-4

+1

+5

+1

+3

-1

+4

-1

-1

+6

+4

+2

+1

+5

-3

+3

+6

+4

+1

-2

-2

-12

0

-4

+7

112 |

99 |

98 |

97 |

92 |

90 |

88 |

88 |

88 |

88 |

87 |

85 |

83 |

83 |

82 |

79 |

78 |

78 |

75 |

73 |

72 |

70 |

66 |

66 |

61 |

59 |

57 |

55 |

53 |

53 |

53 |

48 |


U.S. CONFIDENCE DECLINES, BUT STAYS AT AN OPTIMISTIC LEVEL U.S.consumerconfidencedecreasedsixindexpointsinthesecond

quartertoascoreof101,butremainedatanabove-the-baseline

optimisticlevel.ConsumerconfidenceinCanadaincreasedtwopoints

to98,afterdecliningsixpointsinthefirstquarter.

IntheU.S.,theallthreeconfidenceindicatorsdecreasedinthesecond

quarterwithimmediatespendingintentionsdecliningthemostat

sixpercentagepointsto44%.Jobprospectssentimentdroppedfive

percentagepointsto50%andpersonalfinancesentimentdeclinedone

percentagepointto61%fromthefirstquarter.

“ConfidenceintheU.S.remainsatelevatedlevels,butit’sanuneven

recovery,asmorethanhalfofAmericansstillfeeltheeffectsofthe

recession,andnearly40%arelivingpaychecktopaycheck,”saidJames

Russo,seniorvicepresident,NielsenGlobalConsumerInsights.“While

fast-movingconsumergoodsdollarsaleswereup2.6%throughMay

2015,drivenbyinflationandperimeterstoregrowthforhealthcareand

personalcareproducts,weexpectthefive-yearunitsalestrendtobe

flat.”

InCanada,immediatespendingintentionsincreasedfourpercentage

pointsinthesecondquarterto41%,reversingthedeclinefromthefirst

quarter.Jobprospectsentimentalsoincreased,risingonepercentage

pointto45%.Meanwhile,personalfinancesentimentdeclinedone

percentagepointto54%,thethirdconsecutivequarterofdeclines.



PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT

U.S. CONFIDENCE DECLINES IN Q2; CANADA IMPROVES

JOB PROSPECTS

PERSONAL FINANCES

IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS

-5

-1

-6

+1

-1

+4

45%

44% 41%

Q2 2015 Q2 2015CHANGE

FROM Q1 2015

CHANGE FROM

Q1 2015

CANADAUNITED STATES

50%

61% 54%


LATIN AMERICA FALLS DEEPER INTO A RECESSIONARY MINDSET ConsumerconfidencedeclinedinsixofsevenLatinAmericanmarkets

measuredinthesecondquarter,withBrazil(81)reportingthesteepest

dropofsevenindexpointsfromthefirstquarter.Thedeclinerepresents

thethirdconsecutivequarterofdeclinesfortheregion’slargest

economy,andthescoreisthelowestNielsenhaseverrecorded(the

NielsenConsumerConfidenceIndexwasestablishedin2005).

InBrazil,sentimentforthethreeeconomicindicatorshitnewlows,as

futurejobprospectsdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto23%,personal

financessentimentdecreasedfourpercentagepointsto56%,and

immediatespendingintentionsdeclinedninepercentagepointsto

32%.NearlyallBrazilianrespondentsbelievetheyareinrecession,as

thesentimentincreasedfivepercentagepointsto90%fromthefirst

quarter.

“InBrazil,overallconsumerperceptionscontinuetoworsenasdifficult

economicconditionsremaininplace,”saidLuisArjona,country

manager,NielsenBrazil.“Risingunemploymentandahighinflationrate

arecompoundedbyaslightGDPdecline.Whilegovernmentauthorities

haveadoptedfiscaldisciplinemeasures,itwilltaketimebefore

economicgrowthisreignited.Consumersarerespondingbylowering

levelsofdebt,seekingpromotionsandshoppingatretailformatsthat

offermostcompetitiveprices.”

Peru’sindex(95)declinedfourpoints,followedbydeclinesofthree

pointseachinChile(84)andVenezuela(62).Consumerconfidencein

Mexico(84)andColombia(93)declinedtwoandonepoint,respectively,

fromthefirstquarter.Argentinawastheonlycountrymeasuredinthe

regionwithaconfidenceboost,risingsixpointsto81inthesecond

quarter.

Regionally,the12-monthoutlookforgood/excellentjobprospects

declinedonepercentagepointto26%,personalfinancessentiment

fellonepercentagepointto55%,andimmediatespendingintentions

decreasedfourpercentagepointsto32%.Recessionarysentimentgrew

intheregion,risingfrom78%to81%inthesecondquarter—thehighest

ofalltheregions.

ARGENTINA POSTS THE ONLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVEMENT IN Q2


PERU

VENEZUELA

BRAZIL

95

81

62

-4

-7

-3

CHILE

84-3

ARGENTINA

816

COLOMBIA

93-1

MEXICO

84-2

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE

INDEX Q2 2015

CHANGE FROMQ1 2015


CONFIDENCE RISES IN CHINA, INDIA, JAPAN AND THE PHILIPPINES, BUT DECLINES IN 10 OTHER ASIA-PACIFIC COUNTRIES Reversingtheperformanceatthestartoftheyear,consumerconfidence

intheAsia-Pacificregionimprovedinonlyfourcountriesinthesecond

quarter,whileitdeclinedintenothers.ThePhilippinesshowedthe

biggestquarterlyconfidenceincreaseofsevenindexpoints,risingto

ascoreof122—thecountry’shighestlevelonrecord.Confidencealso

increasedonepointeachinIndia(131),China(107)andJapan(83)from

thefirstquarter.

“InthePhilippines,anupsurgeofrevenuesfromthestrongbusiness

processoutsourcingindustry,anupswingintheconstructionsector,

andstrongconsumptionspendinglevelsarefuelinggrowthinthe

country,”saidStuartJamieson,managingdirector,NielsenPhilippines.

“Fast-movingconsumergoodssalesareup9.5%Jan-April2015from

lastyear,withgrowthacrossallretailchannels.Consumershavemore

discretionarycash,andtheyareusingittotakevacationswithfamily

andfriendsanddiningout.”

India

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

China

HongKong

Vietnam

NewZealand

Singapore

Australia

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

131

122

120

111

107

105

104

99

99

89

89

84

83

45

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES MOST IN THE PHILIPPINES IN Q2


INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE

1

7

-3

-3

1

-1

-8

-3

-1

-6

-5

-4

1

-1

INDEXQ2 2015

CHANGE FROMQ1 2015


“InIndia,consumeroptimismisatitshighestlevelsince2011,which

ispositivenews,butdiscretionaryspendinglevelsareyettoseeahuge

transformation,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndiaRegion.

“Therearesignsofpositivegrowthinconsumerspendingonconsumer

packagedgoods,indicatedbyaslightincreaseingrowthcompared

tothepreviousquarters.Therehasalsobeenagradualdecreasein

concernsaboutjobsecurityoverthelastfewquartersalongwith

interestratecuts,andanincreaseinintentionforhomeloans—thus

enhancingthesentimentontheeconomyandportrayinganoptimistic

pictureforthefuture.”

“InChina,consumers’desiretospendisgrowing,especiallyinthe

lower-tiercitiesandintheruralpartsofthecountry,”saidYanXuan,

president,NielsenGreaterChina.“Higherincomelevelsandgrowing

e-commercepenetrationintheseareasinparticularrepresentimportant

stepsforincreasingdomesticconsumption.TheEastChinaregion

isleadingthecountry’seconomictransformationwiththehighest

confidenceandspendingintentionlevelsandwhereonline,offline,

traditionalandspecialtychannelsareconverginganddrivingupgraded

productchoices.”

Regionally,Vietnam(104)reportedthebiggestquarterlydeclinein

confidenceofeightpoints,followedbyAustralia(89)andMalaysia(89),

whichdroppedsixandfivepoints,respectively,fromthefirstquarter.

“TheVietnamretailenvironmenthasevolvedfromoneofthefastest

growingmarketsin2012toonethat’sstrugglingtoremainingrowth,

withsaleslevelsbetween2%-3%formostofthelast12months,”said

VaughanRyan,managingdirector,NielsenVietnam.“Forthefirsttime

inwelloveradecade,VietnamexperiencedanegativeConsumerPrice

IndexinFebruary,andforeigndirectinvestmentwasdownover20%in

thefirstquarterfromlastyear.Consumersarefeelinglessoptimistic

abouttheirimmediatefuture,buttheyareconfidentinthelongerterm,

asmostexpecttheeconomywillimproveintheyearahead.”

“InAustralia,therearemultiplefactorscontributingtoconsumers’

economicconfidencedeclines,andhistoricalmovementsneedtobe

considered,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,NielsenPacific.“Weak

incomegrowth,aslumpintheAustraliandollarandrisingcostof

livingisleavingmoreAustralianswithnosparecash.Thatbeingsaid,

seasonalityisalsoacontributor,asthewintermonthstypicallydeliver

belowaverageresults,andwhilethequarterisnotablydowncompared

tothestartoftheyear,consumerconfidenceisupfourpointscompared

tothesameperiodlastyear.”


CONFIDENCE DECLINES IN THE UAE, SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPTConsumerconfidencedecreasedinthreeoffivecountriesmeasured

intheMiddleEast/Africaregionandheldsteadyintwointhesecond

quarter.At108,theUnitedArabEmirates(UAE)hadthehighestindex

intheregion,butitdecreasedsevenpointsfromthefirstquarter—the

biggestquarterlydeclineinsixyears.Confidencedeclinedfivepoints

inEgyptto85andtwopointsinSaudiArabiato105.Confidencelevels

inPakistan(102)andSouthAfrica(87)wereunchangedfromthefirst

quarter.

“IntheUnitedArabEmirates,jobsecurityconcernsareamplifyingas

loweroilpricescanfuelexpectationsofgovernmentspendingcuts,”

saidArslanAshraf,managingdirector,NielsenArabianPeninsula.

“Additionally,twokeysectorsoftheeconomy—realestateandtourism—

areshowingsignsofsoftening.Assuch,consumersaresavingmore

andspendingless,intendingtopullbackspendingonnewclothes,out-

of-homeentertainmentandhomeimprovementsexpenses.”

Regionally,whilesentimentaboutjobprospectsedgedupone

percentagepointto45%,personalfinancessentimentdeclinedtwo

percentagepointsto58%,andimmediatespendingintentionsdeclined

threepercentagepointsto36%fromthefirstquarter.Recessionary

sentimentincreasedinfouroffiveMiddleEast/Africamarkets:Egypt

andSouthAfricaeachincreasedthreepercentagepointsto82%and

73%,respectively,andSaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirates

increasedtwopercentagepointsto45%and41%,respectively.

Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingandsaving

intentionschangedmarginallyacrossmostlifestylecategories.

Intentionstosavedeclinedtwopercentagepointsto37%,butplansto

investincreasedtwopercentagepointsto12%.Payingdebtswasthe

priorityfor22%ofrespondents,anincreaseofthreepercentagepoints,

andspendingonnewclothes(27%)andholidays/vacations(19%)

increasedonepercentagepointeachfromthefirstquarter.

INDEXQ2 2015

CHANGE FROM Q1 2015

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINES MOST IN UAE IN Q2


-7

-2

0

-5

0

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

SAUDI ARABIA

PAKISTAN

EGYPT

SOUTH AFRICA

108

105

102

85

87

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


CONFIDENCE RISES IN KENYA AND NIGERIA, BUT DECLINES IN GHANAConsumerconfidenceincreasedeightindexpointsinKenya(112)

andthreepointsinNigeria(132)inthesecondquarter.Conversely,

confidencedecreasedfivepointsinGhana(94),thesecondconsecutive

quarterofdeclines.

ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof

consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey

methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport

consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries

outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets

arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed

throughoutthisreport.

TheoutlookforjobsincreasedsignificantlyinNigeriaandKenya,rising

11andeightpercentagepoints,respectivelyfromthefirstquarter.

Likewise,sentimentforpersonalfinancesandimmediatespending

intentionsalsoincreasedinbothcountries.Eighty-fivepercentof

Nigerianrespondentsand67%ofKenyarespondentsbelievethestateof

theirpersonalfinancesaregood/excellent,uptwoandthreepercentage

points,respectively.Conversely,sentimentforallthreeindicators

declinedinGhana.

Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(70%inGhana,

64%inKenyaand58%inNigeria)saidtheydidnothavesparecash,

levelsthatincreasedinGhanabutdeclinedinKenyaandNigeriafrom

firstquarter.Amongthosewhodidclaimdiscretionaryfunds,saving

continuedtobeapriorityforthemajority:82%inGhana,83%in

Kenyaand79%inNigeriaplantoputmoneyintosavingsaccounts.

Discretionaryspendingintentionsforhomeimprovementprojectswere

thesecond-biggestpriorityamongrespondentsinallthreecountries.


OPTIMISM IS HIGH IN NIGERIA AND KENYA

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015


Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy

GHANA

KENYA

NIGERIA

10397

10299

94

111

121

105

123

113

127

104

129

112

132

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX


Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2014

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION

Australia 94%

China 47%

HongKong 81%

India 20%

Indonesia 28%

Japan 86%

Malaysia 67%

NewZealand 95%

Philippines 41%

Singapore 80%

South Korea 92%

Taiwan 80%

Thailand 30%

Vietnam 44%

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET

PENETRATION


Austria 87%

Belgium 90%

Bulgaria 59%

Croatia 71%

CzechRepublic 78%

Denmark 97%

Estonia 83%


Egypt 53%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 67%

SouthAfrica 52%

UnitedArabEmirates

96%


Canada 95%

UnitedStates 87%

MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 68%

Nigeria 64%

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

LATIN AMERICAEUROPE

Finland 97%

France 83%

Germany 87%

Greece 60%

Hungary 75%

Ireland 79%

Israel 76%

Italy 59%

Latvia 75%

Lithuania 69%

Netherlands 96%

Norway 95%

Poland 67%

Portugal 65%

Romania 51%

Russia 61%

Serbia 65%

Slovakia 82%

Slovenia 76%

Spain 75%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 89%

Turkey 57%

U.K 90%

Ukraine 42%

Argentina 75%

Brazil 54%

Chile 67%

Colombia 62%

Mexico 49%

Peru 42%

Venezuela 50%

*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX


ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

IntentionswasconductedMay11-29,2015andpolledmorethan30,000

onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,Europe,

LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.Thesample

hasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybasedonitsInternet

usersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternetconsumers.Ithas

amarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyisbasedonlyonthe

behaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internetpenetrationrates

varybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreportingstandardof60%

Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10millionforsurvey

inclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfroma

separatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.

Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfrom

aseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsin

Ghana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludesthe

GlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.

ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagement

companythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhat

consumersWatchandBuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaand

advertisingclientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesacrossall

deviceswherecontent—video,audioandtext—isconsumed.TheBuy

segmentoffersconsumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailers

theindustry’sonlyglobalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.By

integratinginformationfromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdata

sources,Nielsenprovidesitsclientswithbothworld-classmeasurement

aswellasanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,anS&P500

company,hasoperationsinover100countriesthatcovermorethan90

percentoftheworld’spopulation.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2015TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand

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