New York’s Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM www.megaenergy.org April 16, 2010
Mar 31, 2015
New York’s Energy Challenges 2010
Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For
Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSMwww.megaenergy.org
April 16, 2010
Energy Priorities 2010
Good News and Bad News
1. Historic low energy prices…today.2. Regional differentials penalize consumers3. Cap and Trade: upside for NY.4. Energy infrastructure agenda.5. Energy market trends.6. Consumers have the responsibility to
choose.
Energy Priorities 2010
Why are prices low?
Demand destruction: The Great Recession (Bad news)
Speculators out of market (Good news)
Natural gas supplies are up. Unconventional, shale gas. (Good news)
Energy Priorities 2010
Wholesale Power Prices at Historic Low in 2009 (NYISO)
Load Av.Electric Av.NatGas
GWh $/MWh $/MMBtu2000 428 $58.26 $5.522001 430 $51.22 $4.542002 435 $49.90 $3.852003 433 $62.58 $6.482004 438 $62.80 $6.802005 458 $93.83 $10.012006 444 $76.45 $7.362007 458 $80.29 $8.502008 452 $95.31 $10.132009 435 $48.63 $4.87
Energy Priorities 2010
Wholesale Electricity Price Trend 2000-2009 (Average, NYS)
Average Wholesale Electric prices $/MWh (NYISO 2010)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Price $/MWh
Energy Priorities 2010
Wholesale Natural Gas Price Trends 2000-2009 (Average, NYS)
Average NatGas Prices $/MMBtu
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NatGas$/MMBtu
Energy Priorities 2010
Total Electric DemandNYS 2000-2009
Load GWh (NYISO 2010)
410
415
420
425
430
435
440
445
450
455
460
465
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Load GWh
NYMEX Natural Gas Prices
Energy Priorities 2010
Natural gas storage trend, last 24 months (USEIA) ((CAUSE))
Energy Priorities 2010
Another form of NGas storage ((Cause))
Energy Priorities 2010
Growth of Unconventional NGas((Cause))
Energy Priorities 2010
US shale activity picks up (www.rigzone.com) Index to 100 Jan08
Energy Priorities 2010
Electric fixed price trend 4/15/2010 ((Effect))
Energy Priorities 2010
January 3, 2010, 1 p.m.
Energy Priorities 2010
January 6, 2010, 9 a.m.
Energy Priorities 2010
Upstate NY Pricing Factors
Transmission congestion, East-West Supply: Adequacy of nearby
generation Demand: Stability, growth or decline
Energy Priorities 2010
3 Congestion Points
Projected cost: 2009 - 2018 Leeds-Pleasant Valley Zones F-G:
$1,307,000,000 Mohawk Valley Zones E-F
$567,000,000 West-Central Zones B-C
$230,000,000
Energy Priorities 2010
Historic Cost of Congestion (NYISO)
2004: $833,000,000
2008: $2,613,000,000
2009 (1Q): $233,000,000
Energy Priorities 2010
Recent projects November 2009
Linden transmission, GE developer, 300 MW between PJM and NYISO
Dover, 1,000 MW nat gas. Advance Power AG
345KV underwater connection Bayonne, NJ to Gowanus-Brooklyn
Stephentown 20MW flywheel, Beacon Power. “Smart Grid Tech.”
Energy Priorities 2010
Champlain-Hudson Power Express
2,000 Megawatts Under water,
underground 355 miles to
NYC/NE Hydropower and
wind sources Outside existing
energy routes
Energy Priorities 2010
Cap and Trade: Impact on New York ratepayers
Carbon tax will raise price of coal-fired generation.
Other states are more dependent on coal than New York.
Electric prices will normalize.
Energy Priorities 2010
New York vs U.S.
New York State 15.27 cents/kwh U.S. average 8.90 cents/kwh
Energy Priorities 2010
Pennsylvania Electric generation fuel mix, Nov. 2009
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energy Priorities 2010
Ohio Electric generation fuel mix Nov. 2009
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energy Priorities 2010
NY State Electric generation by fuel source Nov. 2009
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energy Priorities 2010
New York wind resources
Energy Priorities 2010
Renewables by 2015 (NYS Energy Plan)
Wind (1,280MW as of 2009): On shore 7,993 MW Off shore 534 MW
Solar PV: 100 MW (14.6MW as of 2006)
Total NYS peak electric demand 2008: +/- 38,720 MW (USEIA)
Energy Priorities 2010
Wind Power Challenges
Balancing, storage and ramping Need for energy storage technologies Coordination among regional grid
operators to manage variable flow
Energy Priorities 2010
Private Investment in renewables
Energy price hedge On-site, behind the meter, PPAs Bi-lateral deals between consumers
and developers
Green marketing Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
Energy Priorities 2010
…What’s next?
NYS Energy Plan encourages
1. New capacity, both Generation and Transmission.
2. Fuel diversity, especially renewables. 3. Clear signals to consumers from
energy markets to induce efficiency.
Energy Priorities 2010
Other policy initiatives under way
Smart metering – Installations began 2008. Net metering – Customer sited generation
banking. Article 10 - One-stop permitting expired
2002. Is renewed effort in store? Federal ARRA funding, block grants
Energy Priorities 2010
Consumer Choices and Responsibilities
Shop for energy supplies, price, rate, tax savings. Pay less.
Energy efficiency, SCR, NYSERDA programs. Use less.
Federal incentives, tax credits for efficiency and renewables
Energy Priorities 2010
QUESTIONS?
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