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New York’s Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM www.megaenergy.org April 16, 2010
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New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM April 16, 2010.

Mar 31, 2015

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Page 1: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

New York’s Energy Challenges 2010

Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For

Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSMwww.megaenergy.org

April 16, 2010

Page 2: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Good News and Bad News

1. Historic low energy prices…today.2. Regional differentials penalize consumers3. Cap and Trade: upside for NY.4. Energy infrastructure agenda.5. Energy market trends.6. Consumers have the responsibility to

choose.

Page 3: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Why are prices low?

Demand destruction: The Great Recession (Bad news)

Speculators out of market (Good news)

Natural gas supplies are up. Unconventional, shale gas. (Good news)

Page 4: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Wholesale Power Prices at Historic Low in 2009 (NYISO)

Load Av.Electric Av.NatGas

GWh $/MWh $/MMBtu2000 428 $58.26 $5.522001 430 $51.22 $4.542002 435 $49.90 $3.852003 433 $62.58 $6.482004 438 $62.80 $6.802005 458 $93.83 $10.012006 444 $76.45 $7.362007 458 $80.29 $8.502008 452 $95.31 $10.132009 435 $48.63 $4.87

Page 5: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Wholesale Electricity Price Trend 2000-2009 (Average, NYS)

Average Wholesale Electric prices $/MWh (NYISO 2010)

$-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Price $/MWh

Page 6: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Wholesale Natural Gas Price Trends 2000-2009 (Average, NYS)

Average NatGas Prices $/MMBtu

$-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NatGas$/MMBtu

Page 7: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Total Electric DemandNYS 2000-2009

Load GWh (NYISO 2010)

410

415

420

425

430

435

440

445

450

455

460

465

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Load GWh

Page 8: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

NYMEX Natural Gas Prices

Page 9: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Natural gas storage trend, last 24 months (USEIA) ((CAUSE))

Page 10: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Another form of NGas storage ((Cause))

Page 11: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Growth of Unconventional NGas((Cause))

Page 12: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

US shale activity picks up (www.rigzone.com) Index to 100 Jan08

Page 13: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Electric fixed price trend 4/15/2010 ((Effect))

Page 14: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

January 3, 2010, 1 p.m.

Page 15: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

January 6, 2010, 9 a.m.

Page 16: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Upstate NY Pricing Factors

Transmission congestion, East-West Supply: Adequacy of nearby

generation Demand: Stability, growth or decline

Page 17: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

3 Congestion Points

Projected cost: 2009 - 2018 Leeds-Pleasant Valley Zones F-G:

$1,307,000,000 Mohawk Valley Zones E-F

$567,000,000 West-Central Zones B-C

$230,000,000

Page 18: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Historic Cost of Congestion (NYISO)

2004: $833,000,000

2008: $2,613,000,000

2009 (1Q): $233,000,000

Page 19: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Recent projects November 2009

Linden transmission, GE developer, 300 MW between PJM and NYISO

Dover, 1,000 MW nat gas. Advance Power AG

345KV underwater connection Bayonne, NJ to Gowanus-Brooklyn

Stephentown 20MW flywheel, Beacon Power. “Smart Grid Tech.”

Page 20: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Champlain-Hudson Power Express

2,000 Megawatts Under water,

underground 355 miles to

NYC/NE Hydropower and

wind sources Outside existing

energy routes

Page 21: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Cap and Trade: Impact on New York ratepayers

Carbon tax will raise price of coal-fired generation.

Other states are more dependent on coal than New York.

Electric prices will normalize.

Page 22: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

New York vs U.S.

New York State 15.27 cents/kwh U.S. average 8.90 cents/kwh

Page 23: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Pennsylvania Electric generation fuel mix, Nov. 2009

Coal

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Renewables

Page 24: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Ohio Electric generation fuel mix Nov. 2009

Coal

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Renewables

Page 25: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

NY State Electric generation by fuel source Nov. 2009

Coal

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Renewables

Page 26: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

New York wind resources

Page 27: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Renewables by 2015 (NYS Energy Plan)

Wind (1,280MW as of 2009): On shore 7,993 MW Off shore 534 MW

Solar PV: 100 MW (14.6MW as of 2006)

Total NYS peak electric demand 2008: +/- 38,720 MW (USEIA)

Page 28: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Wind Power Challenges

Balancing, storage and ramping Need for energy storage technologies Coordination among regional grid

operators to manage variable flow

Page 29: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Private Investment in renewables

Energy price hedge On-site, behind the meter, PPAs Bi-lateral deals between consumers

and developers

Green marketing Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)

Page 30: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

…What’s next?

NYS Energy Plan encourages

1. New capacity, both Generation and Transmission.

2. Fuel diversity, especially renewables. 3. Clear signals to consumers from

energy markets to induce efficiency.

Page 31: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Other policy initiatives under way

Smart metering – Installations began 2008. Net metering – Customer sited generation

banking. Article 10 - One-stop permitting expired

2002. Is renewed effort in store? Federal ARRA funding, block grants

Page 32: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

Consumer Choices and Responsibilities

Shop for energy supplies, price, rate, tax savings. Pay less.

Energy efficiency, SCR, NYSERDA programs. Use less.

Federal incentives, tax credits for efficiency and renewables

Page 33: New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM  April 16, 2010.

Energy Priorities 2010

QUESTIONS?

www.megaenergy.org