New Orleans Housing Market Assessment Overview and Major Conclusions Presented to State Bond Commission March 17, 2011
Mar 26, 2015
New Orleans Housing Market Assessment
Overview and Major Conclusions
New Orleans Housing Market Assessment
Overview and Major Conclusions
Presented to
State Bond Commission
March 17, 2011
Purpose and Outcomes
• Comprehensive supply/demand analysis• Extensive primary data collection• Forecasts of future demand• Geographically nuanced data:– Planning Districts in
Orleans Parish– Census “places” in
St. Bernard Parish
Orleans Parish
St. BernardParish
Major Conclusions
• Small oversupply of rental housing– Minor by historical standards
• Occupancy rates are improving• Surplus of for-sale housing• Forecasts suggest a healthy rental market
Small Oversupply of Rentals
Recent “boomlet” is small by historical standards.
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1893
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Permits Occupancy
REITs& FHA
DEREG,S&Ls, &1981TAX ACT
1986 TAXREFORM
Post-KGO ZoneLIHTCs
Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Permits; Occupancy Figures from UNO Real Estate Center Surveys
Small Oversupply of Rentals
Construction activity has dramatically slowed.
Small Oversupply of Rentals
Rents have stabilized – small increase from 2009 to 2010
Affordable Housing Needs
• 28% of pre-storm units had rents under $500 – current total is 12%
• Nearly 50% of pre-storm units had rents between $500 - $800– current total is 17%
• Acutely felt in deeply affordable category:– 70% of those under 50% AMI have excessive housing costs
• Contributing factor – loss of affordable market rate housing
Occupancy Rates Improving
Occupancy rates have stabilized since 2008.
Surplus of For-Sale Units
• Owner occupied units in 2005 that no longer have a homestead exemption• Highlights increase
in single family rentals
Surplus of For-Sale Units
Listings increased by 14% Rents per square foot declined by 8%
Surplus of For-Sale Units
Units sales have decreased Days on the market have increased
Surplus of For-Sale Units
Prices increased from 2009 to 2010 but remain below their 2006 peak
2006 Peak
Demand Forecasts
Surplus of 2,062 units
Deficit of 5,401 units
New Orleans:Planning District ProfilesNew Orleans:Planning District Profiles
District 1CBD, Warehouse District, French Quarter
• Highest sales prices in the city• Strong appreciation in sales prices• Highest median rents in the city• Largest concentration of jobs and amenities• Post-Katrina recovery largely complete
District 2Garden District, Central City
• High sales prices• “Middle of the pack” along several measures:
– Appreciation in sales prices– Median rent
• Strong post-storm recovery• Second largest concentration of amenities
District 3Uptown, Broadmoor, Hollygrove
• High sales prices• Relatively high median rents• Moderate appreciation in sales prices• Third highest concentration of jobs and amenities• Second strongest recovery among Eastbank districts
• Relatively affordable sales prices• Rents are characteristic of city overall• Strong appreciation in sales prices• Moderate pace of recovery• Major concentration of employment and amenities• Major locus of public investment - over $3 billion
District 4Mid-City, Gerttown, Esplanade
District 5Lakeview
• Substantial decline in sales prices• High priced area nonetheless• Second highest in median rent• Strong recovery in light of flooding• Primarily residential area
Photo by Infrogmation (flickr)
District 6Gentilly
• Extremely affordable area• Little appreciation in sales prices• Moderate pace of recovery• Primarily residential:
– Limited commercial amenities– Some major employers but fewer jobs than other districts
District 7Bywater, St. Claude, St. Roch
• High values sales prices for homes in excellent condition• Highest sales price appreciation in the city• Extremely affordable rents• Recovery varies by sub-area• Moderate concentration of amenities and employment
District 8Lower 9th Ward, Holy Cross
• Slow pace of recovery• Most affordable for-sale market in city• Extremely affordable rents• Few jobs and fewer amenities• Tremendous appreciation in sales
prices:– Make It Right homes– Renovated homes in Holy Cross
District 9New Orleans East
• Strong recovery in light of flooding• Extremely affordable for-sale market• Low to moderate appreciation in sales prices• Extremely affordable rents• Significant public investment - Road Home grants• Moderate concentration of jobs and commercial activity
– Lacking basic retail
District 10 and 11Village De L’Est, Viavant/Venetian Isles
• Strong recovery in light of flooding • Most affordable rental market• Strong sales price appreciation:
– Small inventory– May reflect major renovations/updates
• District 10 is major employment center
• Few amenities in either District
District 12Algiers
• Affordable for-sale market• Little appreciation in sales prices• Relatively affordable rents• Strong post-Katrina recovery• Moderate concentration of jobs
and amenities• Significant public investment -
Federal City
District 13English Turn
• High real estate values• Significant decline in sales prices• Strong post-Katrina recovery• Uniformly residential community
www.gcrconsulting.com
504.304.2500 800.259.6192 fax 504.304.2525
2021 Lakeshore Drive New Orleans, LA 70122
UNO Research & Technology ParkAdvanced Technology Center
Ivan J. Miestchovich, Ph.D.UNO Institute for Economic Development and Real Estate Research
504.280.6904 fax 504.280.3952
405 Kirschman Hall2000 Lakeshore Drive
New Orleans, LA 70148