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Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute

Jan 01, 2016

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  • Neboja NakienoviTechnische Universitt Wien xxInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [email protected] Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research InstitutePolish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw 10 June 2008Energy Perspectives and Climate Change

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Global Energy ChallengesSustainable access to energy services(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)Deep CO2 and other GHGs reductionsEnergy systems security and reliabilityInvestment in RD&D and in diffusion

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    World Primary Energy0501001502002503003504004501850190019502000Primary Energy (EJ) BiomassCoalOilGas RenewableNuclearMicrochipSteammotorGasolinetubeCommercialNuclearTelevisionaviationengineengineElectricVacuumenergy

    sINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

    Global Mean Temperatures are RisingPeriod Rate

    Years /decade

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Night Lights2000Source: After SRES, 2000

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Night LightsIIASA A2r ScenarioSRES A22070Source: After SRES, 2000

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Temperature2070Source: TAR-WGI, 20012070

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Global Primary Energy A2r

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Global Primary Energy B1

    INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

    Long-Term Stabilization ProfilesA2 B1

    INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

    Long-Term Stabilization ProfilesA2 B1

    INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

    Long-Term Stabilization Profiles

  • The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go downpeak in 10yrs

    peak in 25yrs

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004

  • Letter

    Horse

    Hay

    Agriculture

    Sunlight

    Telegraph

    Steam Locomotive

    Coal

    Coal mine

    Coal fields

    Interntet, Mobile Phone

    ICE Automobile

    Gasoline

    Oil refinery

    Crude oil

    Convergence

    Energy, MobilityInformation

    Hydrogen

    Natural gas / fossils

    SMR, decarbonization

    Electrolysis

    Sunlight

    Wind

    Uranium

    1770s

    1870s

    1970s

    2070s

    Energy Services and Sources Through Time

    Biomass

    Electricity

    Electricity

    Electricity

    :

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Technology Learning Costs and BenefitsFuture learning benefits Level of present competitivenessLearning costsCumulative investments $Specific investment costs ($/kW)Cumulative MW experienceTimeLearning benefits

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures1985: 1,200Data source:Watanabe, 1995 &1997Grbler, 20021985: 1,200Data Source: Watanabe, 1997

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Technology Learning in SRESSource: Riahi

  • Total Primary EnergyB2 baseline, f are hedging costs

    Nakicenovic#* 2007

    Total Energy-related Investments(World, short & long-term)0255075100125150175200Trillion US$2000A2B1A2B12000-21002000-2030Long-termInvestmentSavings(~40 trillion)UpfrontInvestments(~2 trillion)

    Nakicenovic#* 2008

    Global Energy AssessmentTowards a more Sustainable FutureThe magnitude of the change required is huge The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneouslyA paradigm shift is needed: energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

    Source: Johansson, 2005

  • Some Research Areasfor future collaborationIntegrated Assessment Framework: Modeling of long-term global and regional transitionsDecision Making under UncertaintyEnergy services: Understanding heterogeneity of energy consumersGlobal Energy Assessment (GEA)

  • Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysisand its international partners present the www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

  • GEA Knowledge ClustersCluster I: Major Global Issues and Energyassessment of the Challenges

    Cluster II: Energy Resources and Technological Options assessment of the Components available to build future energy systems

    Cluster III: Possible Sustainable Futuresassessment of how to combine the Components to create Systems that address the Challenges Scenario development

    Cluster IV: Policies Advancing Energy for Sustainable Development assessment of the Policies needed to address the Challenges and realize the Systems

  • Organizations Supporting GEA

    International OrganizationsUNDP UNEPUNIDOWorld BankIEACountry Governments/AgenciesAustriaBrazilItalyKoreaSwedenUSA

    CorporationsPetrobrasTEPCOIndustry groupsWECWBCSD

    FoundationsUN FoundationHeinz Foundation

  • Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

    Emphasize difference between baseline and deterministic caseEarlier diffusion of new technologies, i.e. upfront investmentsDiversification of Technology Portfolio within and across sectorsSignificant emission reductions as a result of uncertain carbon price (policy uncertainty)

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