Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute

Neboja NakienoviTechnische Universitt Wien xxInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [email protected] Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research InstitutePolish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw 10 June 2008Energy Perspectives and Climate Change

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Global Energy ChallengesSustainable access to energy services(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)Deep CO2 and other GHGs reductionsEnergy systems security and reliabilityInvestment in RD&D and in diffusion

Nakicenovic#* 2008

World Primary Energy0501001502002503003504004501850190019502000Primary Energy (EJ) BiomassCoalOilGas RenewableNuclearMicrochipSteammotorGasolinetubeCommercialNuclearTelevisionaviationengineengineElectricVacuumenergy

sINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Global Mean Temperatures are RisingPeriod Rate

Years /decade

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Night Lights2000Source: After SRES, 2000

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Night LightsIIASA A2r ScenarioSRES A22070Source: After SRES, 2000

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Temperature2070Source: TAR-WGI, 20012070

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Global Primary Energy A2r

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Global Primary Energy B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization ProfilesA2 B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization ProfilesA2 B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles

The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go downpeak in 10yrs

peak in 25yrs

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004

Letter

Horse

Hay

Agriculture

Sunlight

Telegraph

Steam Locomotive

Coal

Coal mine

Coal fields

Interntet, Mobile Phone

ICE Automobile

Gasoline

Oil refinery

Crude oil

Convergence

Energy, MobilityInformation

Hydrogen

Natural gas / fossils

SMR, decarbonization

Electrolysis

Sunlight

Wind

Uranium

1770s

1870s

1970s

2070s

Energy Services and Sources Through Time

Biomass

Electricity

Electricity

Electricity

:

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Technology Learning Costs and BenefitsFuture learning benefits Level of present competitivenessLearning costsCumulative investments $Specific investment costs ($/kW)Cumulative MW experienceTimeLearning benefits

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures1985: 1,200Data source:Watanabe, 1995 &1997Grbler, 20021985: 1,200Data Source: Watanabe, 1997

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Technology Learning in SRESSource: Riahi

Total Primary EnergyB2 baseline, f are hedging costs

Nakicenovic#* 2007

Total Energy-related Investments(World, short & long-term)0255075100125150175200Trillion US$2000A2B1A2B12000-21002000-2030Long-termInvestmentSavings(~40 trillion)UpfrontInvestments(~2 trillion)

Nakicenovic#* 2008

Global Energy AssessmentTowards a more Sustainable FutureThe magnitude of the change required is huge The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneouslyA paradigm shift is needed: energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

Source: Johansson, 2005

Some Research Areasfor future collaborationIntegrated Assessment Framework: Modeling of long-term global and regional transitionsDecision Making under UncertaintyEnergy services: Understanding heterogeneity of energy consumersGlobal Energy Assessment (GEA)

Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysisand its international partners present the www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

GEA Knowledge ClustersCluster I: Major Global Issues and Energyassessment of the Challenges

Cluster II: Energy Resources and Technological Options assessment of the Components available to build future energy systems

Cluster III: Possible Sustainable Futuresassessment of how to combine the Components to create Systems that address the Challenges Scenario development

Cluster IV: Policies Advancing Energy for Sustainable Development assessment of the Policies needed to address the Challenges and realize the Systems

Organizations Supporting GEA

International OrganizationsUNDP UNEPUNIDOWorld BankIEACountry Governments/AgenciesAustriaBrazilItalyKoreaSwedenUSA

CorporationsPetrobrasTEPCOIndustry groupsWECWBCSD

FoundationsUN FoundationHeinz Foundation

Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Emphasize difference between baseline and deterministic caseEarlier diffusion of new technologies, i.e. upfront investmentsDiversification of Technology Portfolio within and across sectorsSignificant emission reductions as a result of uncertain carbon price (policy uncertainty)