Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute.

NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććTechnische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx

[email protected]@iiasa.ac.at

IIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research InstituteIIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research Institute

Polish Academy of Sciences, WarsawPolish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw – 10 June 2008– 10 June 2008

Energy Perspectives and Energy Perspectives and Climate ChangeClimate Change

mailto:[email protected]

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##22 20082008

Global Energy ChallengesGlobal Energy Challenges

Sustainable access to energy servicesSustainable access to energy services(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)

Deep CODeep CO22 and other GHGs reductions and other GHGs reductions

Energy systems security and reliabilityEnergy systems security and reliability

Investment in RD&D and in diffusionInvestment in RD&D and in diffusion


World Primary EnergyWorld Primary Energy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1850 1900 1950 2000

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy

(E

J)

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Renewable

NuclearMicrochip

Steammotor

Gasolinetube

CommercialNuclear

Television

aviation

engine

engineElectric

Vacuum

energy

s

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Global Mean Temperatures are RisingGlobal Mean Temperatures are Rising

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200

0

Period Rate

Years /decade


Night LightsNight Lights

2000

Source: After SRES, 2000Source: After SRES, 2000


Night LightsNight LightsIIASA A2r ScenarioIIASA A2r Scenario

SRES A2

2070

Source: After SRES, 2000Source: After SRES, 2000


Δ Δ TemperatureTemperature

2070

Source: TAR-WGI, 2001Source: TAR-WGI, 2001

2070


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

EJ

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Global Primary Energy – A2rGlobal Primary Energy – A2r


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

EJ

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Global Primary Energy – B1Global Primary Energy – B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles

A2A2

B1B1



~$100/tCO~$100/tCO22

A2A2

B1B1



<$25/tCO<$25/tCO22

~$100/tCO~$100/tCO22

The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go

down

peak in

10yrs

peak in

25yrs


Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight

Telegraph Steam Locomotive

Coal Coal mine Coal fields

Interntet, Mobile Phone

ICE Automobile

Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil

Convergence Energy, Mobility

InformationHydrogen

Natural gas / fossils

SMR, decarbonization

Electrolysis

Sunlight

Wind

Uranium

1770s

1870s

1970s

2070s

Energy Services and Sources Through Time

Biomass

Electricity

Electricity

Electricity

Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004


Technology LearningTechnology Learning Costs and Benefits Costs and Benefits

Future learning benefits

Level of present competitivenessLearning

costs

Cumulative investments $Sp

ecif

ic in

vest

men

t co

sts

($/k

W)

Cumulative MW experience

Time

Learning benefits


100

1,000

10,000

100,000

0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000

Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen

PV

cos

ts (

198

5) Y

en p

er W

1973: 30,000

y = 10 4.0 – 0.54x

R 2 = 0.989

1995: 640

Applied R&D InvestmentBasic R&D

1976: 16,300

1980: 4,900

1985: 1,200

Data source:Watanabe, 1995 &1997

Japan - PV Costs vs. ExpendituresJapan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures

GrGrübler, 2002übler, 2002

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

0 0.1 1 10 100 1,000

Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen

PV

cos

ts (

198

5) Y

en p

er W

1973: 30,000

y = 10 4.0 – 0.54x

R 2 = 0.989

1995: 640

Applied R&D InvestmentBasic R&D

1976: 16,300

1980: 4,900

1985: 1,200

Data Source: Watanabe, 1997 ~ $1 109

Cost reduction~ $100 109


Technology Learning in SRESTechnology Learning in SRES

100,00010,0001,000100101

Cumulative Installed Capacity [GW]

10,000

1,000

100

Inve

stm

ent

Cos

ts p

er k

W

in U

S$90

100,00010,0001,000100101

Cumulative Installed Capacity [GW]

10,000

1,000

100

Inve

stm

ent

Cos

ts p

er k

W

in U

S$90

Source: RiahiSource: Riahi

%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ

solarwindhydrobiomassnucleargas.unconvgas.convoil.unconvoil.convcoal

%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


%

0

1

2

3

4

5

f 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

EJ


earlier investmentsearlier investments

diversificationdiversification

Total Primary EnergyB2 baseline, f are hedging costs


Total Energy-related Investments(World, short & long-term)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Tri

llio

n U

S$

20

00

A2 B1 A2 B1

2000-21002000-2030

Long-termInvestment

Savings(~40 trillion)

“Upfront” Investments(~2 trillion)


Global Energy AssessmentGlobal Energy AssessmentTowards a more Sustainable FutureTowards a more Sustainable Future

• The The magnitudemagnitude of the change required is of the change required is hugehuge

• The challenge is to find a way forward The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues that addresses all the issues simultaneouslysimultaneously

• A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage.and storage.

Source: Johansson, 2005Source: Johansson, 2005

Some Research Areasfor future collaboration

(1) Integrated Assessment Framework:Modeling of long-term global and regional transitions

(2) Decision Making under Uncertainty

(3) Energy services: Understanding heterogeneity of energy consumers

(4) Global Energy Assessment (GEA)

IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Confronting the Challenges of Energy forConfronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development:

The Role of Scientific and Technical AnalysisThe Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis

and its international partners present theand its international partners present the

www.www.GlobalEnergyAssessmentGlobalEnergyAssessment.org.org

GEA Knowledge Clusters

● Cluster I: Major Global Issues and Energy– assessment of the Challenges

● Cluster II: Energy Resources and Technological Options – assessment of the Components available to build future energy systems

● Cluster III: Possible Sustainable Futures– assessment of how to combine the Components to create Systems that

address the Challenges – Scenario development

● Cluster IV: Policies Advancing Energy for Sustainable Development

– assessment of the Policies needed to address the Challenges and realize the Systems

Organizations Supporting GEA

International OrganizationsUNDP UNEPUNIDOWorld BankIEA Country Governments/AgenciesAustriaBrazilItalyKoreaSwedenUSA

CorporationsPetrobrasTEPCO Industry groupsWECWBCSD

FoundationsUN FoundationHeinz Foundation

IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Confronting the Challenges of Energy forConfronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development:

The Role of Scientific and Technical AnalysisThe Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis

and its international partners presentand its international partners present

www.www.GlobalEnergyAssessmentGlobalEnergyAssessment.org.org

Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute.

Documents

energy day

challenges of energy

energy perspectives

energy servicesa prerequisite

energy enduse efficiency

climate changenakicenovic

data source

climate change ipccglobal