Neboj Neboj š š a Naki a Naki ć ć enovi enovi ć ć Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Analysis xx [email protected][email protected]IIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research Institute IIASA Energy Day in Poland, Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw – 10 June 2008 – 10 June 2008 Energy Perspectives and Energy Perspectives and Climate Change Climate Change
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Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute.
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NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććTechnische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Total Primary EnergyB2 baseline, f are hedging costs
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1919 20072007
Total Energy-related Investments(World, short & long-term)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Tri
llio
n U
S$
20
00
A2 B1 A2 B1
2000-21002000-2030
Long-termInvestment
Savings(~40 trillion)
“Upfront” Investments(~2 trillion)
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2020 20082008
Global Energy AssessmentGlobal Energy AssessmentTowards a more Sustainable FutureTowards a more Sustainable Future
• The The magnitudemagnitude of the change required is of the change required is hugehuge
• The challenge is to find a way forward The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues that addresses all the issues simultaneouslysimultaneously
• A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage.and storage.
Source: Johansson, 2005Source: Johansson, 2005
Some Research Areasfor future collaboration
(1) Integrated Assessment Framework:Modeling of long-term global and regional transitions
(2) Decision Making under Uncertainty
(3) Energy services: Understanding heterogeneity of energy consumers
(4) Global Energy Assessment (GEA)
IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Confronting the Challenges of Energy forConfronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development:
The Role of Scientific and Technical AnalysisThe Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis
and its international partners present theand its international partners present the