NATO Partnership for PeaceTrust Fund - Evaluation on the economic, security and social impact of the project

Authors:

IOM/NTF team in collaboration with Questlab, Prof. Dr Ljubisa S. Adamovic from Florida State University and Mr. Slobodan Spasic from Singidunum University, Serbia

Program Management:

LtC Terje Haaverstad – NATO/PfP Trust Fund, Leading Nation Representative Embassy of the Kingdom of Norway – Belgrade, Serbia

Gianluca Rocco – NATO/PfP Trust Fund, Program Manager International Organization for Migration – Belgrade, Serbia

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmit in any form or any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of the publisher.

NATO Partnership for Peace Trust Fund Project for Assistance to

Discharged Defence Personnel in the Republic of Serbia

Evaluation on the economic, security and social impact of the project

June 2009

NATO – Partnership for Peace Trust Fund for Serbia 2

ABSTRACT

The Republic of Serbia is a large recipient of international financial aid. In 2009 alone, 400 million EUR has been requested as assistance from the European Commission to alleviate the effects of the global economic crisis. However, the availability of foreign assistance greatly depends on the efficiency of the use of such funds by a particular recipient country. It is therefore very important to examine and determine how successfully foreign assistance funds have been used so far in Serbia. The publication before you deals with this critical issue by examining the efficiency of foreign assistance use in the specific case of the NATO Partnership for Peace Trust Fund (NFT). NTF is a project financed by the NATO/PfP countries in support of the Serbian Programme for Resettlement in the Serbian Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces (PRISMA program); it is implemented by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and provides financial support to former Serbian military personnel who have been discharged in the course of Serbia’s Defence Sector Reform as. The IOM implemented project is finishing its third year of operations in July 2009 and a donor evaluation is expected. This timeline makes it an appropriate subject of the study because the final results of the project may be ascertained with great accuracy, while remaining current enough to demand present attention. The publication analyzes a wide array of input and output parameters and delves deeper to determine both short term and long term effects of the implemented project. The parameters used in this publication to determine the efficiency of the project are not only financial and quantitative, but are also based on surveys, interviews, and other methods of qualitative feedback which were calibrated to determine the true effect of the project on its beneficiaries and other stakeholders. The development of this publication was done with the help of Questlab Research - Statistics Company from Italy which has extensive experience in program and policy evaluations. This publication in essence has a limited direct audience. It is intended for those in NATO/PfP and the Serbian Ministry of Defence who will analyze the achievements of the project. Additionally, it is intended for IOM officials in their internal analysis of the implemented project. However, the publication may also be useful as a comparison and reference tool for companies planning or in the process of laying-off workers and for government officials or international organizations planning or evaluating the effects of social programs for laid off workers.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................2

TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................3

DEFINITIONS OF TERMS..................................................................................................................4

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS...............................................................................................5

1. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................6

2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ..................................................................................................7

2.1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................8 2.2. OVERALL OBJECTIVE OF THE NTF PROJECT...............................................................................11 2.3. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES OF THE NTF PROJECT ..............................................................................11

3. APPLIED METHODOLOGY.........................................................................................................13

3.1. RESEARCH METHOD IN BRIEF.....................................................................................................13 3.2. RESEARCH TEAM........................................................................................................................13 3.3. DATA COLLECTION.....................................................................................................................14 3.4. EVALUATION CRITERIA......................................................................................................................15

4. IMPACT OF THE PROJECT ........................................................................................................16

4.1. NTF PROJECT EFFICIENCY - OUTPUTS AGAINST SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES AND LEVEL OF

BENEFICIARY SATISFACTION ......................................................................................................16 4.2. NTF PROJECT EFFICIENCY - CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES .........................................................22 4.2.1. CUSTOMERS’ SATISFACTION WITH THE NTF ASSISTANCE..........................................................22 4.3. NTF PROJECT EFFECTIVENESS - SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ..............................................27 4.4. NTF PROJECT EFFECTIVENESS - ECONOMIC EFFECTS ........................................................35

5. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................50

BIBLIOGRAFY....................................................................................................................................52

■■■ APPENDIX 1 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS ..........................................................54

A). TYPES OF RESEARCH...........................................................................................................................55 B) SELECTED RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS .....................................................................................58 C). DATA COLLECTION .............................................................................................................................58

■■■ APPENDIX 2 SAMPLE SIZE SELECTION CHART .............................................................65

■■■ APPENDIX 3 QUESTIONNAIRE AND INTERVIEW RESULTS ........................................67

■■■ APPENDIX 4. MONTHLY STATISTICAL REVIEW 3/2009 ................................................74


DEFINITIONS OF TERMS The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) {French: Organisation du Traité de l'Atlantique Nord (OTAN)}, also called the (North) Atlantic Alliance, is a military alliance established by the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April 1949. Partnership for Peace (PfP) is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) program aimed at creating trust between NATO and other states in Europe and the former Soviet Union. Partnership for Peace Trust Funds promote security and defence reform. Individual Allies and Partners support practical demilitarization projects and defence reform projects in Partner countries through individual Partnership for Peace Trust Funds. International Organization for Migration (IOM), established in 1951, is the leading inter-governmental organization in the field of migration and works closely with governmental, inter-governmental and non-governmental partners. Micro Credit is the extension of small loans to entrepreneurs too poor to qualify for traditional bank loans. It has proven an effective and popular measure in the ongoing struggle against poverty, enabling those without access to lending institutions to borrow at bank rates, and start small businesses. Grants are funds dispersed by one party (Grantmakers) - often a Government Department, Corporation, Foundation or Trust - to a recipient - usually a non profit entity, educational institution or business. The application process for a grant generally requires some form of Grantwriting often referred to as either a proposal or a submission. Nordic Initiative is an organization that provides coordinated and combined approaches to the defence cooperation activities of the five Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to the Western Balkan countries. The Nordic Initiative is administered on behalf of the Nordic countries by the Nordic Initiative Steering Group that is made up of representatives from the Ministries of Defence of each Nordic country. PRISMA. Within the framework of the Serbian Defence Reform a rather significant downsizing had to be carried out. In order to complete this task efficiently and without causing major social-economic turmoil, the creation and development of an adequate resettlement programme was devised and launched by the Ministry of Defence under the name of PRISMA.


ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

BC : Business Creation

BE : Business Expansion (loans)

ECA : Europe and Central Asia

FC : Financing Courses

HQ : Headquarters

IOM : International Organisation for Migration

JRP : Joint Review Panel

NATO : North Atlantic Treaty Organisation

NAMSA : NATO Maintenance and Supply Agency

NCO : Non-Commissioned Officer

NTF : NATO Trust Fund

MoD : Ministry of Defence

NES : National Employment Service

PfP : Partnership for Peace

PMU : Project Management Unit

PRISMA : Programme for Resettlement in the Serbian Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces

RRC : Regional Resettlement Centres

SBRA : Serbian Business Registers Agency

SC : Steering Committee

SME : Small and Medium Enterprises

SS : Salary Support

TF : Trust Fund

TOR : Terms of Reference


1. INTRODUCTION The NATO Partnership for Peace Trust Fund (NTF) is a project providing support to the Serbian Ministry of Defence in managing the downsizing of military personnel who have been laid off in the process of Serbia’s Defence Sector Reform. The project started in July 2006 and is now entering its fourth year of implementation. The project, financed by NATO/PfP countries and managed by IOM in close cooperation with the Serbian Ministry of Defence, has, after three years of implementation, produced results that go beyond the original scope having a favorable impact on the overall Serbian socio-economic situation. In addition to the defence and security related goals originally set by the project, the effects of the NATO Partnership for Peace Trust Fund have been substantial in terms of job creation, income generation and producing other significant benefits to the state economy. To date, several million EUR have been invested through the NTF into the Serbian economy, contributing to the creation of new businesses, supporting the growth of existing ones, enhancing access to employment, and financing re-training. The results are very encouraging and show both the cost effectiveness and the positive effects of these interventions. Although the global financial crisis is the cause of further layoffs in Serbia and is creating a slump in consumer spending, the effects of NTF assistance are still relevant and the assistance provided continues to make a positive impact on Serbia’s micro-economic development. An analysis of the NTF project from a perspective outside of its impact on the defence and security structures demonstrates the role the Ministry of Defence is playing in public administration reform and the socio-economic development of the country. NTF assistance has certainly contributed to the security sector reform process in Serbia, but the socio-economic impact of the NTF has further allowed a rationalization of the MoD without increasing the burden on Serbia’s welfare system or the already high levels of unemployment. The aim of this publication is to focus the attention of different NTF stakeholders on the socio-economic aspects of the project to completely evaluate the impact of a project that is primarily designed for security and defence purposes. The aim is also to build on that experience and better define the goals and objectives that can be achieved in different sectors with such interventions. This publication is the result of a research activity organized by the NTF team in collaboration with Questlab, an Italian company specialized in statistical research. The reviewers of the publication were Professor Dr. Ljubisa Adamovic of the European Centre for Peace and Development (ECPD) of United Nations University for Peace and Assistant Professor Slobodan Spasic of Sociology Department at Singidunum University.


2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION Under the defence reform process started in 2003, the Republic of Serbia has committed itself to comprehensive defence reform and the development of smaller-sized, professional and modernized Armed Forces. It is envisaged that the overall downsizing process during 2005 to 2010 should affect some 20,000 - 25,000 personnel1. In 2005 and 2006, the MoD discharged over 13,700 personnel. From 2007 to 2010, the plans are to dismiss an additional 8,500 people, of whom 25% are officers, 25% non-commissioned officers (NCOs) and contract soldiers and 50% civilians. In line with its commitment and with the aim to facilitate management of the downsizing process, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) of Serbia initiated the Program PRISMA in 2003. This initiative, which is part of a wider defence reform effort outlined in the MoD’s White Publication on Defence, was formally adopted by the MoD in May 2004. Since then, PRISMA has become a permanent feature of the MoD’s human resources management system. PRISMA is founded on a two-pronged approach targeted to discharged defence personnel that provides reintegration assistance through the establishment of Regional Resettlement Centres (RRCs) and retraining assistance through external providers. Three RRCs have been established to provide personalized guidance on adjusting to civilian life. RRCs have developed an ‘interim’ database containing details of every project beneficiary receiving support and have developed links with a number of employers’ associations, SME development agencies, chambers of commerce and the national employment service. Concerning retraining, assistance agreements2 have been signed with two Universities - the Faculty of Organizational Science3 in Belgrade (with UK funding), and the Mechanical Engineering Faculty in Nis (with Dutch funding) - and recently with the Belgrade Chamber of Commerce4 in Belgrade and few other educational institutions in Nis (Nordic Initiative funding). Officers are offered specialized training through the two universities while NCOs are able to receive training through the above mentioned institutions while the NCO Training Centre is in the process of being established. In the recent years, NATO has supported the defence reform efforts of Serbia, through a variety Cooperation Programs5, including PfP trust funds. Most of these projects were established to assist with the destruction of military hardware such as weapons and ammunition through the NATO Maintenance and Supply Agency (NAMSA). For the reintegration of former military personnel into civilian life, NATO/PfP countries decided to turn to the International Organization for Migration (IOM)6, a partner with significant experience and expertise in dealing with the socio-economic consequences of defence reform.

1 According to the Ministry of Defence data 2 with UK, Dutch and Nordic Initiative funding 3 http://prisma.fon.bg.ac.yu/prismaportal/ 4 http://www.kombeg.org.rs/komora/centri/obrazovanje/prizma/prizma.htm 5 http://www.nato.int/docu/sec-partnership/html_en/nato_secur07.html 6 IOM has world-wide experience in the field of assisting in the process of downsizing military personnel and contributing to their reintegration into civilian life, having assisted over 270,000 former combatants and other military personnel in countries such as Afghanistan, Angola, Guatemala, Haiti, Mali, Mozambique, the Philippines, Tajikistan, East Timor, Columbia and of particular relevance to this project, Croatia and Bosnia Herzegovina.


In an attempt to identify solutions that could enhance the potential for success of PRISMA, IOM completed an assessment mission in Belgrade in May 2005 with funding from the Norwegian Government. The mission involved bilateral discussions with the MoD, the Faculty of Organizational Sciences, visits to the RRCs, one-to-one discussions with redundant military personnel, briefings on current and future developments regarding PRISMA, and presentations of IOM’s experience with defence reform and reintegration in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and elsewhere. Among its findings, the assessment mission determined that, although the PRISMA concept of operations is well designed, the project is inadequately funded and lacks certain key components - manpower capacity, technical expertise, prior project experience, and micro enterprise funding mechanisms - thereby substantially limiting the possibilities of success. In this context, the specific sectors/areas where NATO/PfP and IOM expertise could greatly enhance the PRISMA program were identified and subsequently included as the key components of a NATO/PfP Trust Fund project proposal. On April 2006, IOM and the Kingdom of Norway, as the lead country of the NATO/PfP Trust Fund, signed an executive agreement for the implementation of the NATO/PfP Trust Fund project entitled Assistance to Discharged Defence Personnel within the Scope of Defence Sector Reform in Serbia7. The project was designed to last for five years and complement the defence reform process. However, due to the lack of stability in the region, funds were committed for the initial two years with the opportunity for annual renewal for the following three years.

2.1. Project Description Within the scope of Defence Sector Reform in Serbia, the Ministry of Defence and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) have been implementing the Assistance to Discharged Defence Personnel project (NTF project) providing support to their reintegration to civilian life. This project aims to complement the activities of the PRISMA Program and increase the opportunities for the target groups to successfully integrate into civilian life. The five-year project is comprised of several phases. During the first phase (July 2006 – June 2008), the target group consisted of approximately 1,850 redundant military persons. During the second phase (July 2008 – June 2009), a new target group of 1,250 people has been identified. The NTF project is financed by a range of NATO/PfP Member States (Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Luxemburg, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, The Netherlands and United Kingdom) through the NATO/PfP Trust Fund and under the lead of the Kingdom of Norway. The NTF project targets redundant military personnel, as well as their families and dependants, who are categorized as “high risk”8 by the Ministry of Defence for integration into civilian life. Former military personnel from the Republic of Serbia (excluding the province of Kosovo and Metohija) that have been dismissed after January 1, 2005 and have registered with PRISMA are offered the opportunity to access grants in the amount up to €1,500 and/or micro-loans with no interest in the amount up to €3,000. During the third year of activity, the NTF Steering Committee has decided to include in the project the opportunity to have flexible grants expanding the upper limit of the currently applied grant from 1,500 to 3,000 EUR. The flexible grant shall be issued to

7 Executive Agreement between Norway (NTF Lead Country) and IOM, 2006 8 Based on vulnerability criteria decided by the Ministry of Defence


applications to support businesses that show a potential for rapid expansion and creation of new jobs, a characteristic shared by businesses in the manufacturing sector. The Joint Review Panel is responsible for making decisions related to this new flexible grant. The project is designed to provide business development assistance through counselling and financial support. Personalized consulting services help beneficiaries develop business plans, weed out problems, find additional capital, brainstorm strategies and propel businesses to a profitable future. Project experts continue to be available to give one-on-one counselling to help business become more profitable. NTF consulting services are confidential and offered free of charge. The Information Counselling and Referral Services (ICRS) model that IOM has developed through its worldwide operations over the past 20 years is the basis of the NTF project methodology. The ICRS model is consequently a general instrument adaptable to the local environment to adequately respond to the needs of the target group as well as the local socio-economic and security conditions. Within the Serbian context, the ICRS mechanics were organised according the following scheme9:

a) Information for Beneficiaries: Pre-Counselling Information – Via the NFT project’s outreach and information dissemination strategy, information is provided to potential beneficiaries and other relevant stakeholders about the project and the realistic benefits and limitations of project participation.

Beneficiary Information / Registration – Potential beneficiaries provide their biographical data, information on their education and skills, as well as their expectations and goals for generating a sound and stable income.

b) Information for Stakeholders: The outreach and information dissemination strategy is a key tool to disseminate information about the project and promote awareness within the MoD, among potential candidates already made redundant, as well as local government and business communities. Information is also disseminated by NTF project staff directly through informative events and periodic presentations to project partners and potential stakeholders. Among the key information dissemination tools developed by the NTF are a monthly newsletter, a fact sheet and a website. Regular briefings with national and local media as well as strategic promotion using posters, leaflets and other visibility material aid in delivering information to stakeholders.

c) Counselling to Support a Change in Mindset: One-on-one counselling is offered to project beneficiaries to discuss issues related to their economic reintegration into a productive civilian life, as well as to conduct a psychological and problem analysis related to the social/security aspects of their reintegration and to support a change from their military mindset to a civilian one. During the personalised and professional counselling sessions, the beneficiary is advised regarding the existing options and reintegration opportunities (employment, training, business creation, joint ventures, etc.). Because the transition to civilian life is a difficult process for most discharged defence personnel, even after the pre-counselling, a large number remain undecided as to what sort of activity is best suited to their needs. In subsequent counselling sessions, NTF counsellors provide individual counselling to each beneficiary on a fit-for-purpose basis helping them to identify the best possible reintegration option.

d) Counselling to Manage Expectations: NTF project staff gathers basic, detailed and specific information on trainings, local economy, labour market, SME

9 Data as of 30 April 2009


regulations, business registration, and other information of possible interest to the beneficiary, including local economic initiatives and incentives on SME development. These services are then mapped by sector and by geographic location are provided to the beneficiary during initial counselling sessions. This data serves as the basis for developing the beneficiary’s re-integration plan and for preparation of their application for NTF assistance.

e) Referral Services: In light of the information gathered at the field level, and after identifying individual reintegration expectations during the counselling session(s), NTF project staff move towards the delivery of concrete assistance by referring the beneficiary to the optimal and most sustainable reintegration options. In spite of the established referral mechanism, it has to be noted that the NTF project always seeks to support the efforts of its beneficiaries rather than act on their behalf. The main principle of this approach is to empower individuals so that they can take the future into their own hands and achieve sustainable reintegration into civilian life without relying only on the external assistance.

f) Reintegration Fund: This fund is used to financially support and strengthen the reintegration opportunities and support services identified by the NTF project staff for the individual beneficiary’s respective socio-economic reintegration projects. The RF may cover the costs for any of the following:

• purchase of tools, equipment, farming machinery, livestock and/or raw material;

• upgrade an existing business;

• pay for registration and tuition fees for trainings or adult education courses;

• serve as a stipend/salary subsidy during on-the-job training.

At no time during the life cycle of any RF activity is cash handed out to the beneficiary. Even in the instance of salary subsidies, funds are channelled to the

Examples of Socio-Economic Reintegration Options Available Through the NTF Project

� Education: Beneficiaries may wish to attain a formal education, continue a previously interrupted education or pursue a specialization in a specific field of interest. The RF pays for registration fees and other education-related costs at formally recognized schools. Beneficiaries are encouraged to choose part-time enrolment in order to allow them time for part-time income generating activities, unless the beneficiary is able to economically sustain him/herself until the completion of the degree or course.

� Job Placement or Direct Employment: Employment opportunities identified by the NTF during the information gathering component are recorded in a database and shared with the beneficiaries interested in employment as their preferred reintegration option. This service is free of charge as is a good way of matching demand with supply in instances where beneficiaries have a skill required by the employer.

� Vocational Training: Vocational Training is offered to beneficiaries wishing to either build a skill or develop an existing one, further improving their chances to secure a sustainable employment. Similar to formal education, NTF ensures that the vocational training to which the beneficiaries are being referred to is recognised by the Ministry of Education. The NTF, in coordination with MoD, allows applicants to access vocational training courses offered by local providers in vocations different from those already covered by the MoD.

� Micro and Small Enterprise Start-Up and/or Expansion: The NTF RF can be used to purchase tools and equipment, raw material, finance a marketing campaign for the venture, pay business-related establishment/registration costs, or any combination of the above. NTF support the establishment of newly developed enterprises as well as the expansion of existing ones. The best tool to finance such an option is a loan.


beneficiary through the employer. As mentioned above, the NTF approach to reintegration focuses on the support to the ideas and solutions identified by the beneficiary. The NTF project serves as a tool that the beneficiary can use to achieve the goal s/he has identified during the counselling via financial assistance, operational support and qualified advice.

All NTF reintegration activities may be financed with either a grant or a loan in the amount of up to €1,500 (up to €3,000 for loans) and no cash is provided to the applicant (All payments are made by IOM directly to suppliers for goods or service providers for other services). A requirement of NTF assistance is a matching in-kind or cash contributions from the beneficiary. This practice is aimed at maximizing beneficiary ownership and commitment to his/her business endeavour. Feasibility and sustainability checks of the proposed activity, as well as an evaluation of skills and expertise of the applicant, are conducted before approving the application. NTF client advisors in the three Regional Resettlement Centres (RRCs) are responsible for providing assistance and counselling to all project beneficiaries in the process of accessing the NTF assistance. Applications are prepared at the RRCs and include an outline of the assistance requested including business ideas, business plans and/or cash flow projections. The approval of each application is determined by the Joint Review Panel (JRP), which is comprised of experts from IOM, the Ministry of Defence, and educational/training institutions, according to a set of established criteria. The JRP is the forum where the activities to be financed are analysed and discussed and the field activities are reviewed. Through the JRP meetings, MoD counterparts not only have direct control of the implementation of the project, but also directly participate in managing its activities.

2.2. Overall Objective of the NTF Project The NTF project’s aim is to contribute to the implementation of defence sector reform carried out by the Ministry of Defence, thereby creating the conditions for a more stable and dignified civilian life for the discharged personnel. However, this project should be seen in the context of strengthening the stability of civilian society, and not as a purely military or defence-related project. The role of IOM is highly important in ensuring that the focus of this project is on social and economic development. The project provides needed support to MoD PRISMA for assisting discharged defence personnel in the process of their socio-economic reintegration to civilian life by creating economic opportunities to start new businesses and increasing their employment opportunities. It not only helps to ensure the sustainable reintegration of redundant military personnel but reaches into the communities of return/resettlement and further promotes stabilization through the improvement of economic conditions. The provision of alternative livelihoods for redundant military personnel based on individual needs and expectations is achieved by creating a sustainable reintegration structure capable of assisting redundant military personnel in becoming active and productive members of their communities

2.3. Specific Objectives of the NTF Project The specific objectives originally set for the NATO/PfP Trust Fund project were very limited and did not allow the evaluation of all aspects of project implementation.


Specifically, the results framework did not include parameters for measuring the social and community impact of the project, focusing instead only on the number of beneficiaries directly assisted by the project During the second year of project implementation, a new results framework was developed to better capture the impact of the project on Serbia’s social and economic development. The new framework provides for three strategic objectives to be measured by the monitoring and evaluation system of the project: SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE 1

Assisted discharged defence personnel integrated into civilian life

Outcomes include:

o Social integration of beneficiaries through social-economic participation

o Project information and reintegration counselling to discharged defence personnel through the implementation of the ICRS approach

o organization of informational sessions with local employers, institutions and suppliers;

o Support to the establishment of new businesses;

o Support to job creation SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE 2

Increased economic self-sustainability of the assisted discharged defence personnel

Outcomes include:

o Support to the reintegration of redundant defence personnel into civilian life through the Reintegration Fund

o At the end of five years, 5,100 discharged defence personnel are integrated into civilian life as a result of strengthening and reinforcing reintegration initiatives through employment generation, capacity building and business support initiatives resulting in sustainable income generating activities

o At the end of five years, 5,100 discharged defence personnel have increased their economic self-sustainability due to the assistance received through NTF/PRISMA projects

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE 3

Increased capacity of PRISMA/MoD in providing reintegration assistance to the discharged defence personnel

Outcomes include:

o Increased capacity of MoD to manage downsizing processes related to defence reforms as well as contracted soldiers


3. APPLIED METHODOLOGY

3.1. Research Method in Brief As a general principle, the research has been conducted with an evaluation purpose using quantitative methods to give precise and testable expressions to qualitative ideas. The appliance of such a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods is known as mixed method research. The research uses primary survey as the research design with data collected at one point in time from a stratified sample selected to represent a larger population. Descriptive analysis is used to produce a situation analysis. The evaluation research methodology was selected in order to provide objective assessments of past and present effects of the NTF project and, to provide more accurate results, it was combined with other research techniques like survey, interviews, observation and secondary data analysis. All statistical data utilized for this research are from the period from 1 July 2006 to 28 February 2009.

3.2. Research Team Research was done by IOM/NTF team in collaboration with Questlab.

IOM/NTF Team: The entire team collaborated in the development of the research. However, Mr. Gianluca Rocco and Mr. Rade Glomazic are those that have been the most directly involved in the collection and consolidation of data.

Questlab: Questlab is an Italian company that is specialized in statistical projects, economic and social research, data analysis, database and ICT development, training and other services. The company has been operational since 2000 with a client list that includes the Bank of Italy, several Chambers of Commerce, Associations of Entrepreneurs (Confindustria, API, etc.), regional administrations, universities, research centres, private companies and media10.

Prof. Dr Ljubisa S. Adamovic: Professor Adamovic graduated from the School of Journalism and Diplomacy, University of Belgrade in 1952. He received his MBA degree at the College of International Economics of Ohio University in 1958, and his PhD degree in Economics at the University of Belgrade in 1961. He was elected Assistant Professor at the School of Economics of University of Belgrade in 1963, Associate Professor in 1967 and Professor in 1972. He was Chairman of the Department of International Economics from 1971 to 1992.

He has been Professor of Economics at Florida State University since 1992. Prof. Adamovic has published more than 300 titles in Yugoslavia and abroad. His main research topics have included: institutionalization of international economic relations, international economic integration, and position of Yugoslavia in international

10 Questlab’s main areas of expertise are: poll and opinion panel surveys; observatory for the survey, classification,

and data elaboration of specific events; Surveys to analyze economic data to define a real economic situation as regards one productive sector, or one particular geographic area; Socio-economic surveys (Customer Satisfaction, Organization and internal environment, Sales and post-sales, etc.); Socio economic research (Questionnaires, Samples, Data analysis, Research Reports); Marketing research (Quantitative marketing, GIS and geo-marketing). For more info please visit: www.questlab.it


economic relations. He has submitted papers at numerous domestic and international conventions and symposia. Prof. Adamovic has lectured in various countries at more than fifty universities.

Mr. Slobodan Spasic: He works as a teaching assistant at Faculty of Applied Ecology Futura, Singidunum University, field Humanistic Sciences. He holds Master of Business Administration, awarded by Lincoln University in the U.S. He is an editor of Published Teaching Books section and Chief Coordinator of Multimedia Centre of the Faculty. He is a principal of Green Limes Foundation, and a founder and managing board president of the NGO Centre for Environment Development in Belgrade.

3.3. Data Collection

As mentioned above, much of the research is based on the collection and analysis of different data. The collection of this data was conducted through the implementation of several tools and applying a methodology that is suggested by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) when analysing the outcomes of economic, social and governance projects. The tools used are:

a) Stratified sample survey of 187 direct interviews or 10% of the 1870 active NTF clients at the beginning of the third year (June 2008)

b) Individual interviews

c) Data from the IOM-NTF database

d) Observation of the project implementation process

e) Review of project-related documents including the reports from the external evaluations conducted by the company Subur Consulting S.L

Stratified sampling has been applied looking at the full representation of each sub group according to the following criteria:

• Area of residence

• Type of assistance received

• Male vs. female

• Age

• Status (ex-military vs. civilian) The stratified sample included a number of 187 people which represents 10% of all active clients at the beginning of the third year. Out of this sample, 126 of all active clients participated in the survey, providing for a 92% confidence level. The margin of error with this confidence level is 8%, which provides for solid reliability of the data gathered. In order to a high reliability of data, information collected through those tools have been assessed through a triangulation mechanism so that data were included only when confirmed by three separate sources. Moreover, the research team (hereinafter referred as “the team”) has been responsible for the analysis of the data collected also in order to identify abnormal data, inconsistencies and/or missing values in the content of individual responses. The team carried out some analysis on the frequency distributions of responses in order to identify and correct ex-post any non-normal values. Non-normal values were corrected whenever possible by contacting the involved beneficiaries or were cancelled in the event that re-contact was not possible.


IOM-NTF DATABASE

As a main source of information for this research, a specific note must be made in relation of the IOM-NTF Database. The database is an essential tool that has been developed within the NTF project to facilitate the processing of the applications as well as to collect data that can be used to analyse the progress of the project and to adjust the activities to the real needs of the beneficiaries.

The Database has been operational since January 2007 and been updated on an ongoing basis to respond to the changing needs of different stakeholders as well as to accommodate changes in the project decided by donors. Within that system, the RRC offices are linked via internet to allow timely and secure exchange of information/data. The Database also includes records from the monitoring system of the financed projects to allow the NTF team to monitor the progress of each case from the day it is approved. Data and information related to the implementation of the results framework are recorded through the Database and used for reporting purposes to measure the level of socio-economic reintegration achieved by the assisted beneficiaries.

Within the Database, mechanisms signal when the implementation is not proceeding according to plan and raise the need for more intensive monitoring and possible additional counselling support.

3.4. Evaluation Criteria Evaluation makes use of the Methodological Framework for Project Evaluation (MFE) that was introduced in 2002 as a common framework for systematic use across all international development project evaluations. The MFE aims to promote a more systematic assessment of impact, facilitate the production of a consolidated picture of the results, impact and performance of development projects and to help consolidate insights and learning from each evaluation. The MFE consists of a set of criteria to be applied to all project evaluations, which are assessed by asking a number of key questions. This criteria is consistent with the consensus of international financial institutions and the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The evaluation focuses on the following criteria:

a) Efficiency: Evaluate the process and implementation of the NTF project by looking at NTF project outputs and beneficiary satisfaction.

b) Effectiveness: Evaluate the social impact and economic effects of the project

o Social Impact: Assess how effectively the different actions contribute to achieving the project objective of reintegration of military personnel into civilian life.

o Economic Effects: Measure the economic impact of the project by indicating the: impact on the financial independence of beneficiaries, number of new businesses registered, number of new jobs created, and how the project benefited state revenues.

Considering that advanced econometric analytical tools are costly and do not take into consideration all development related aspects of a project, the team decided to replace those tools and analyze the accomplishments and outcomes of the NTF project through spreadsheets, graphs and charts from the NTF database.


4. IMPACT OF THE PROJECT

4.1. NTF PROJECT EFFICIENCY - Outputs against Specific Objectives and Level of Beneficiary Satisfaction

The aim of this sub-section is to present the results achieved by the project and measure them against the level of beneficiary satisfaction with the project. For easier reference this analysis is conducted following the specific objectives as they are listed below.


Assisted discharged defence personnel integrated into civilian life

As of the end of February 2009, a total of 4,22511 beneficiaries received one-to-one counselling and expressed their interest to access the available assistance by deciding to register. As indicated in the external evaluation of the NTF, the counselling process is one of the most relevant elements of the project even when it does not lead to an application. Through the counselling process, discharged military personnel engage themselves in a dialogue with people that are ready to help and assist them. This helps to lowers the tension and the resentment that very often accompanies being discharged, limiting the opportunities for those people to get involved into problems that would most likely affect the security situation both at the local and regional levels. Since one of the goals of the project is to provide counselling and assistance to 5,100 individuals within five years (or 3,100 within a three-year period), it can be concluded that the project has achieved more than expected towards this goal. Regarding the quality of counselling, there is no specific feedback from the beneficiaries on the level of satisfaction related to that specific assistance; however, there is a general appreciation for the assistance received and we can assume that counselling is also seen by beneficiaries as an important element of that support. Additionally, a general link can be made with the high number of requests received by the NTF project from potential beneficiaries for organizing an information session. This element certainly indicates the positive image that this kind of assistance has gained over the years of implementation among beneficiaries.

Number of Registered Beneficiaries by RRC (Source: NTF Database)

REGIONAL RESETTLEMENT CENTRE Total

BELGRADE 1,773

NIŠ 1,611

NOVI SAD 841

TOTAL 4,225

Another indicator of the good quality of the counselling is that the vast majority of the people that have decided to submit an application with the assistance of the counsellors have been granted the NTF grant/loan assistance by the JRP. The majority of those who have submitted an application have general ideas about business plans and through the counselling provided at the PRISMA/IOM

11 IOM/NTF - Statistical data an analysis of registration, counselling and disbursement activities NATO-PFP Trust

Fund Project, 28 February 2009


offices they refine their plans also drafting the required documentation (business plans, cash flows etc.). The same assistance is offered to those that have limited ideas on how to utilise the NTF assistance. This element shows how the counsellors were able to assist beneficiaries in developing applications that were more consistent with the skills and expertise of those people also looking at the market opportunities in their areas of reintegration. In order to further support the re-integration of the beneficiaries in their local communities, the NTF has been organizing a series of events aimed at increasing the knowledge of the project among potential beneficiaries and general public. Some of those events were targeting local authorities as well as institutions operating in those communities while others were more specifically looking at opportunities for employment targeting potential employers and local offices of the National Employment Service in areas where large groups of beneficiaries are residing to raise the awareness about the project opportunities (especially in relation to NTF subsidies to employment) and facilitate the beneficiaries’ access to the labour market. The first type of events included presentations of the project, detailed explanations of the rules and criteria, examples of tangible assistance, beneficiaries’ questions and answers, and the opportunity to register within the project. The second type of events included participation in job fairs, seminars and workshops as well as meetings with employers and their associations. A network of contacts with employers potentially interested in cooperating with the NTF beneficiaries has been established and it is regularly fed with updates on the proceeding of the project. As of 28 February 2009, the IOM-NTF team organized 118 promotion activities, including job fairs, for a total of 1,613 participants in over 24 municipalities in Serbia.


Increased economic self-sustainability of the assisted discharged defence personnel

The Joint Review Panel has been in operation since November 2006 and 102 meetings have been held as of 28 February 2009. A total of 2,578 cases have been debated as of the end of February 2009. Of that total number, 2,536 projects have been approved, 10 are on hold and pending further assessment, and 32 are rejected. Concerning the rejected applications, the absence of vulnerability as well as the lack of evidence of the sustainability of the businesses were two of the main reasons together with extremely low impact on the applicant’s family budget. In spite of the increasing number of applications submitted to the JRP by the NTF counsellors, the rate remains extremely low. This data show the good quality of the assistance provided to the beneficiaries in setting up their own businesses. 132 activities have been cancelled. These were cases that have been stopped before their completion according to an NTF decision (when the activities are not conducted in accordance to the rules and principles of the

Busines

sExp. 5

0%

Busines

s

Creation

73%

Salary

Support

15%

Financ.

courses

12%


project) and cases where the beneficiary decided to stop the activity by himself. An average of 77 disbursements per month was the target set by the project document. Considering the time when the referrals were made available to the project, the results achieved so far are exceeding that initial goal reaching an average of 92 cases per month, 15 more than initially planned. As it relates to the type of assistance requested by the applicants, the majority of them request support in business creation (73% of the total). Requests for salary support represent 15% of the total while financing courses represent 12%. The low level of interest for financing business expansion (around 0.4% of the total) needs to be analyzed in relation to the project methodology as well as the procedures for the disbursement of loans. Out of all 1,857 micro-businesses supported through the NTF grants, 1,150 are in the agriculture sector; this is not surprising, considering that, especially in the south of the country, a large number of beneficiaries live in rural areas and own plots of land. The service sector represents 31% of the total businesses financed and is considered as a priority by all NTF counsellors as it represents a growing sector in the Serbian economy with a good potential for rapid success. To complete the picture about the different type of businesses established, a relatively small number of activities were established in both the production (4%) and trade (3%) sectors. The relatively low interest in production activities is not only related to the difficulties in establishing this kind of business but also to the amount of the grant assistance which sometimes is not sufficient to establish this type of enterprise. In order to solve this issue and try to further support activities of that kind that can have a greater impact on the local economy and potentially create new jobs some new measures have been introduced. The NTF Steering Committee has decided to include in the project the opportunity to have flexible grants expanding the upper limit of the currently applied grant from € 1,500 to € 3,000. The flexible grant shall be issued to applications concerning businesses that show a potential for rapid expansion and possible creation of new jobs as those related to production usually are.

The Steering Committee has also introduced a new instrument named “self-sustainability grant” in order to increase the opportunities for the long term reintegration of project beneficiaries through the further enhancement of well established business that offer good prospects for further development. The main condition for accessing this kind of NTF grants is that the project beneficiary must meet at least one of several defined conditions, either that his/her business presented good

prospects for the employment of other discharged defence personnel or that he/she posses the skills/qualifications learned through the PRISMA training program. Self-sustainability assistance can be granted in the amount of up to €1,500 and its disbursement is combined with a training course aiming at further increasing the capacities of those project beneficiaries. Looking more closely at the 1,150 projects in the agriculture sector, the fruit and vegetable production represents the majority of the cases with around 65% of the total. There are several local

Security

60%

Trade

12%

Service

18%Product.

10%


fruit and vegetable processing companies such as Nektar that need a permanent source of fresh fruits and vegetables and are ready to make contracts with beneficiaries starting such businesses. Moreover, fruit and vegetables are at the top of the export list and, especially for some products like berries, the marked demand is much higher than the available offer. In the services sector, there is a wide range of businesses financed. Although there is no predominant activity, patterns can be identified in the different areas of the country such as the establishing of taxi services in the Novi Sad area. In that sense those businesses represent an answer to specific needs of the local markets and are different from case to case. As indicated in the chart here above, the majority of the salary support assistance (i.e. job placement) is to be found in the security sector, where the skills of a former defence are seen as a major asset, with around 60% of the total applications. It can also be noted that such assistance is mostly requested by beneficiaries residing in the more developed areas of the countries like Belgrade and Novi Sad where the labour market is more dynamic and the number of potential employers is higher. Typical vocational training courses financed through the NTF assistance include accountancy, foreign language, or a combination of the two (nearly 41% of the cases). After completing the course, some of the beneficiaries can also apply for business creation grants/loans to start an accountancy office or establish an activity where they can use the acquired skills. Each beneficiary is entitled to combine different types of NTF assistance as long as the total amount of the grant does not exceed €1,500 (or 3,000 in the case of a flexible grant). By the end of the reporting period, 2% of the applicants decided to combine the NTF retraining with other types of available NTF assistance: 42 beneficiaries combined business creation and financing courses assistance, while 11 combined financing courses with salary support assistance). Management training has emerged as a new category of requests for financing courses and has started to be in demand especially in the area of Belgrade. An increasing number of beneficiaries, to date almost 6%, are requesting to attend these kind of courses. The reasons behind that trend are mainly related to the fact that more and more companies are asking for this type of certificate when hiring new employees. Synergies have been built by the NTF project with other existing programmes supporting discharged defence personnel. This study showed that 734 NTF assisted beneficiaries (29% of the total) also went through one of the PRISMA retraining programs:

o 70% went through the three-month retraining curricula for officers, being organised at the Faculty of the Organisational Sciences in Belgrade - FON (financed by the Netherlands) or at the Mechanical Engineering Faculty in Niš - MF (financed by the UK);

o 11% took the motivation course; and

o 19% took the NCO courses (financed by the Nordic Initiative) The statistical data indicates that the vast majority of the officers who attended the PRISMA three-month retraining curricula decided to combine both non-financial and financial assistance. Considering that the majority of these officers were referred to the NTF project in 2006 and 2007, the quite high response of this group seems to be linked to them having had enough time to make decisions about their future.

In order to better analyse the impact of NTF assistance on the self-sustainability and reintegration of the assisted beneficiaries, an analysis of the NTF financed small and medium enterprises (SMEs) - excluding agricultural households - was conducted at the end of May 2009. This assessment involved a search of all business records with the national Registrar of Commercial Entities to


establish the status of each beneficiary business after having received NTF assistance. Of the 754 NTF assisted small entrepreneurs, 129 businesses were closed as of the end of May 2009. This represents a success rate of 83% in SME survival. The national success rate in financing start-up business is 70%, as announced by the Ministry of Economy in May 2009.

Trends in SME Closure per Calendar Year (Source: NTF Database)

YEAR ASSISTED SMEs CLOSED SMEs %

2007 213 5 2 %

2008 420 78 19 %

200912 121 46 38 %

Of the businesses that closed, 73% have faced problems in their business operations and closed during the first year of their existence. This is not surprising, since the initial months of any new activity are the most crucial and require a high level of dedication and resources. Looking at all three years of activity, it is clear that the failure rate has drastically increased in 2009 to 38%. This sharp increase is best explained not as an internal issue but rather as being connected with the general economic crisis and its impact on the Serbian social-economic environment. Looking at the SME survival rate in a different way (see table below) reveals that the majority of the financed SMEs managed to survive the first year of activity. If we couple this information with the data related to the closure rate per year and the general economic crisis, it appears that the support provided by the NTF had a very relevant impact on promoting self-sustainable reintegration.

Trends in SME Sustainability per Calendar Year (Source: NTF Database)

YEAR ASSISTED SMES EXIST IN 2009 % SUSTAINBILITY

2007 213 166 78%

2008 420 353 84%

2009 121 104 86%

TOTAL 754 623 83%

NTF has developed cooperation with a number of existing business incubators. By linking NTF beneficiaries with already existing and self-sustainable business incubators, the most successful entrepreneurs financed by the NTF project can drastically increase their opportunities for successfully reintegrating into civilian life. Business incubators enable a business environment for start-ups by providing premises, infrastructure and a comprehensive range of services and convenience that can improve their ability to run their operation during the early developmental period. Business incubation is a process that

73%

27%

SMEs

closed in 1

year or

less

SMEs

closed in

more than

1 year


provides critical assistance to start-up companies and entrepreneurs to develop their businesses. Experience in other countries indicates that start-up companies developed in the business incubators operate with a lower failure rate than enterprises established outside the incubator. Tenants are given additional financial support, competence development, access to new concepts and methods, technology transfer and business through networking. Some of the NTF supported entrepreneurs with the best business ideas and the highest growth potential were selected as tenants and placed in existing incubators where they will remain for two to three years. During the incubation process, it is expected that those new enterprises will grow into stable and dynamic companies able to successfully compete on the free market.


Increased capacity of PRISMA/MoD in providing reintegration assistance to the discharged defence personnel

In order to strengthen the capacity of MoD counterparts to conduct downsizing activities in the future, a wide range of tools have been developed. These tools help share know-how in the organization, logistics, outreach and beneficiary selection activities that result in the successful re-integration of discharged military personnel into civilian life. These tools assist in establishing structures and mechanisms while others build skills and expertise of the MoD staff. The capacity building of MoD staff has been carried out using a mixed approach that combines formal training with learning by doing and coaching. MoD staff are involved in the implementation of all NTF activities and this exposing them to a wide range of situations, resulting in a sort of continuous training setting with IOM staff serving as a support and resource person when needed. Specific mechanisms like the JRP and the PMU have been set up to enhance the opportunities for cooperation among all stakeholders as well as for capacity building purposes. The JRP is a forum where the activities to be financed are analysed and discussed and the field activities are reviewed. Through the JRP meetings, MoD counterparts have direct control over the implementation of the NTF project and directly participate in managing of its activities. Similarly, the PMU is a mechanism established to discuss policy and management issues with donors. This co-management gives MoD staff the opportunity to further increase their familiarity with all aspects of the reintegration process and to gain direct experience on operational and policy issues. The NTF project has organised training courses for the MoD-PRISMA staff with the aim of further increasing MoD capacities to conduct similar supporting activities targeting discharged defence personnel in future downsizing and reintegration activities once the NTF project ends. The identification of the curricula was jointly defined by the MoD, IOM and an external consultant. This process has allowed the project to reach a high level of commitment among the participants as well as a self-evaluation of the individual strengths and weaknesses. The selected curricula included regular teaching sessions as well as learning by doing modules. In order to build synergies with local existing initiatives, most of the training was implemented through local providers. Assistance in building structures within the MoD to make sure that they are adequately set up and equipped has been provided with NTF project funds resulting in the refurbishment of already existing facilities with interventions that have included painting of walls and provision of desks, tables and other pieces of furniture. The NTF project has also provided the MoD with some needed IT equipment. An important element of the capacity building component was the upgrade of the IT system of the PRISMA and its field offices, to ensure that the required technical support for the implementation of the project activities is available in a format that would allow its long term use as well as through the


use of modern software and hardware. At the starting of the NTF project, software was installed on the PRISMA IT system to allow the creation of a network for the exchange and processing of data. At the end of the first year of the project, a database system was developed to interface and be interoperable with the one developed by the NTF project so that MoD could take over the processing of the NTF data at the end of the project. During the third year of activities, the Steering Committee has agreed to further invest in the development/upgrade of the PRISMA IT system to further expand its capacity and better respond to the needs of interacting with other departments within MoD. As mentioned above, business incubators are a well-known and excellent tool for developing new businesses and reducing the major problems and constraints that lead many new businesses to fail. The NTF project did not originally include the opportunity to establish or develop links with business incubators. However, as activities were developed in that field, it was decided to also intervene to build the capacity of PRISMA to deal with business incubators. The NTF project contracted a Norwegian company already working with the government of Serbia on the development of business incubation to organise a training course targeting two PRISMA staff for a period of 9 months.

4.2. NTF PROJECT EFFICIENCY - Cross-Cutting Issues In addition to the specific objectives, there are some other aspects of the NTF project that should be analysed to fully measure its impact and achieved goals.

4.2.1. Customers’ Satisfaction with the NTF Assistance In terms of customer satisfaction, the feedback received through the questionnaires and interviews with the assisted beneficiaries is extremely positive. The vast majority of beneficiaries surveyed were very pleased, and sometimes surprised (“unexpected” was the term used), by the support they received from the NTF client advisors, the manner in which they were treated, advised and counselled, and the very caring and committed attitude of the NTF staff.

Beneficiaries expressed their particular appreciation for the manner in which NTF field staffs have gone out of their way to facilitate their business development. Below are some quotes from beneficiaries that demonstrate their satisfaction with the overall support received from the NTF project.

QUOTES FROM THE BENEFICIARIES TARGETED BY THE SURVEY

(Source: External Independent Evaluation of the Project by Christian Bugnion, Director, Subur Consulting S.L)

� “I'm very grateful for the IOM/NTF support"

� "I started as a small business for survival and got so big now!"

� "The staff is really welcoming and attentive to issues, you really feel welcome“

� "Excellent counselling and support services. Without this process, the company would probably not have been registered"

� "I'm really satisfied with the highest marks for the assistance, nothing wrong or negative. All my friends, neighbours and relatives saw the situation I was in and the assistance received, they were so thrilled I could get it"

� "I'm more than satisfied, the relationship with people and the equipment I got is more than I ever expected".

� “They were great (advisors), all of them... I don't think a better team could have been


made. They have a team approach and are compatible, don't change them!“

� "At the beginning I was sceptical and I didn't even want to come here.... the contact with the people here (RRC) was so incredible I have never seen anything like it"

� "The cooperation was really great"

� "I don't see how they could do more than they've already done"

� "They were really persistent and I even told them to stop calling me (but of course they won't!)"

4.2.2. Customers’ Evaluation of the Quality of the Assistance

The overall picture given by the stratified sample of NTF beneficiaries targeted by the survey is that they are very satisfied with the assistance received by PRISMA/NTF. The data collected from the interviews relate to the support offered by the PRISMA/NTF through counselling and other services and provided feedback on the impact of the capacity building component of the NTF project. Considering the close cooperation and synergies built

between the NTF and PRISMA, it is not possible to have a good sense of beneficiary satisfaction without looking at by both components. Table 1 shows that the 81.7% of the NTF beneficiaries found the counselling useful, while some 18.3% did not have an opinion or did not use the counselling services. The general feedback

from those who did not use the counselling services is not negative on the service itself. The vast majority of those people are, in fact, reporting that they had very clear ideas about their path towards reintegration and they felt they did not need counselling support like that offered by the NTF project.

Apart from counselling services, additional support is provided to all beneficiaries through regular monitoring activities. Among those who received counselling, 83.3% reported satisfaction, while 16.7% did not provide any evaluation for the quality of assistance.

Positive

81,7%

No opinion

18,3%

Table 1 - Impact of the NTF Counseling Services (Source: Stratified Sample)

Positive

97,6%

No evaluation

2,4%

Table 2 – Level of satisfaction with the NTF assistance (Source:StratifiedSample)


As indicated in Table 2, the percentage of beneficiaries satisfied with NTF financial assistance is 97.6% while some 2.4% did not have any evaluation to share about the assistance. Although, it is clear that a positive response should be expected from people that received material assistance from the project, the very high level of appreciation shows that the support received goes beyond the simple delivering of goods.

The survey was designed to collect data on the efficiency of NTF assistance delivery. NTF operational effectiveness was in particular evaluated through a question on the time that was required to effectively access the NTF assistance. Table 3 shows the responses received disaggregated by RRC.

Table 3 shows that the

vast majority of beneficiaries were able to receive the approved support within a month from the submission of their request. However, an element that affects the calculation of the average time for delivering the assistance is the type of business chosen by the beneficiary for his/her reintegration. As a general rule, it takes about a month to disburse the assistance for the establishment of a business, since the beneficiary needs to register his/her company and fulfil all his/her obligations before receiving NTF support. Moreover, if the applicant is requesting the delivery of goods that are not immediately available on the market, additional time may be necessary.

The human factor may be responsible for some of the delays experienced in the Novi Sad region. This human factor relates to the need for the beneficiary, since action is required by the beneficiary once his/her application is approved by the JRP. In some cases, beneficiaries do not act quickly on those issues, wasting time, and de-facto blocking the entire process. The interviewed beneficiaries were asked to evaluate the overall impact of the NTF project on their process of reintegration into civilian life. They were in particular asked to decide which aspects of the NTF project have had the greatest impact in the transition process from military to civilian life. The question was designed in a way to determine which element is prevailing between a purely economic aspect and a social aspect.

Table 4 indicates that there is a fair balance between those who measured the relevance of the social (28.6%) and economic aspects (27.8%), demonstrating

that, in spite of the relatively low value of the NTF grant there is a significant economic impact of that assistance. However the percentage of those who

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

One month Two months More than 2 months

%

Novi Sad

Belgrade

Nis

Table 3 – Satisfaction with the delivery of NTF assistance (Source: Str.Sample)

o Economic self-sufficiency: 27.8 %

o Social networking: 28.6 %

o Overall socio-economic effects: 43.7 %

Table 4 - Most relevant effects of the NTF assistance (Source: Stratified Sample)


were not willing to distinguish between the two elements and believed that the positive impact of NTF assistance was due to a combination of socio-economic effects was 43.7%. The latter shows how much the assistance provided by the NTF is impacting the life of the assisted beneficiaries; the NTF counselling and financial assistance do not only provide economic support and cannot be considered as “one time” assistance. The NTF intervention is much more comprehensive and affects the entire life of the assisted beneficiary. This is even more important as it relates to one of the aims of the NTF project of enhancing stability in the region and ensuring that former defence personnel do not use their skills and expertise in activities that are a threat for the security. By getting fully involved in the NTF activities, it is most likely that those people will stay away from the above mentioned “troubles”.

4.2.3. Client Evaluation of the NTF/PRISMA Cooperation

The NTF/PRISMA cooperation in the distribution of the NTF assistance received very high rates by the interviewed clients. When asking beneficiaries to rate the performance of NTF/PRISMA on a scale from 1 (minimum) to 5 (maximum), the average result was 4.73. However, looking at the structure of the project this was somehow expected as the levels of cooperation achieved in this project are extremely high. The MoD is included in all stages of the different activities, sharing with IOM the management of all actions. Although this shared management can at times be a burden to the implementation of the project, the positive side of such an approach is that all key stakeholders are involved in the implementation of the project which ensures ownership and commitment to the process. Such mechanisms allow the further capacity building of the MoD staff through a combination of coaching and learning-by-doing approaches. In spite of the positive rating of the NTF/PRISMA cooperation, the results are lower than the levels of beneficiary satisfaction with the financial assistance provided for by NTF. Nevertheless, a deeper analysis of this shows that some of the discharged personnel do not feel very comfortable in directly approaching his/her former colleagues working for PRISMA and tend to consider as less relevant the services provided directly by the MoD. Some of the NTF beneficiaries look with different eyes at the services provided by an external institution like IOM and those offered by their former colleagues in the MoD. In this sense, the general environment of the NTF support is certainly more favourable for the IOM staff to the disadvantage of the activities that are jointly implemented. Within such a framework, beneficiaries are not willing to accept just any service provided by IOM but require a professional and effective approach.

4.2.4. MoD/PRISMA Appraisal of the IOM Role in the NTF As mentioned above, the level of cooperation achieved between IOM and PRISMA within the NTF project is very high to the full satisfaction of both sides.


Building on the already established PRISMA program, the NTF project was developed to focus on building the capacity of the MoD in dealing with any process related to the resettlement of personnel. The NTF intervention was not set as a separate action aimed at assisting MoD in dealing with the exceptional downsizing of large numbers of military personnel but rather as a complement to a process that was already started by the MoD, intervening in supporting the establishing of structures, mechanisms and procedures as well as providing financial support to stimulate the reintegration of the target group. That the project has not been designed as a specific response to a well defined and limited in time downsizing action but as a long term intervention has certainly contributed to this positive situation. Within such a positive framework, it is clear that the general opinion of the MoD staff about IOM would have been positive. When asking PRISMA staff (15 people) to rate the performance of the IOM on a scale from 1 (minimum) to 5 (maximum), the average result was an astonishing 4.83. It is interesting to note that the results of the survey conducted among the PRISMA staff at the operational level brings the same encouraging results showing that also at the practical level there is a positive opinion on the work of the IOM. Below are some of the quotes from that survey:

QUOTES FROM THE PRISMA STAFF TARGETED BY THE SURVEY


� “IOM is always open to new ideas and finding new ways”

� "NTF/PfP support has a great impact: the training component already impacted on our capacity building, the training was very relevant, including a range of issues that PRISMA needed".

� "PRISMA could only do a part; IOM/NTF brings the business side. Their greatest strength : flexibility and openness when dealing and talking to a client“

� "Very high efforts of the IOM staff to help clients"

� "IOM always willing to help and assist in any way they can"

4.2.5 Project’s Financial Status

At the end of the second year, the NTF was financially audited at the donor’s request. The audit was conducted by an internationally recognized company through an open bidding process. The audit report has established that the financial management of the project was appropriate and there were no financial mishandlings encountered. The financial audit report was shared and endorsed by the donors at the Seventh PMU and SC meetings and made available to donors through the NTF web site in September 2008. In the third year of project activities, the same financial mechanisms have continued to be implemented and expenditures continue to be in line with the set targets.


4.3. NTF PROJECT EFFECTIVENESS - Socio-Economic Impact

4.3.1 Sociological Aspects of the NTF From a sociological point of view, the reintegration of discharged military personnel in civilian life is having a profound impact on the overall Serbian society. After a decade of security-related crisis and a half decade of both economic and political turbulences, Serbian society faced a new problem related to several thousand discharged military personnel brought out from their almost life-long “group”. To exit a “group” means essentially to go out of one’s “comfort zone” and, in that sense, to be laid-off is a very painful drastic change for all concerned military personnel, exacerbated by the existing differences between military and civilian group settings. Those settings often stand as barriers difficult to overcome and, in the case of military staff, the barriers appear to be higher than for their civilian colleagues. Being excluded from a specific group and becoming part of a much wider group, which, in the eyes of the military personnel, often appear to be led by ambiguous principles, is undoubtedly a significant event in the lives of former military employees. Once discharged, a former member of the military unwillingly enters a serial of imposed socio and psychological relationships. High ranking officers were more affected than others by this alteration because they suddenly found themselves outside of a well established chain of command, typical of any military system, facing new surroundings populated by new sociological features. Accepting their new condition is the first step and leads to a sense of transformation. In that context, the following question is to be answered: Were those individuals able to realize again the basic human generic essence of being productive individuals at this time of transition in civilian life? Looking at the NTF project experience, it seems that the need for help and guidance in making that step was shown by the majority of those people. Group affiliation generates familiar concepts, a known workforce, suitable production relations, and the elimination of arbitrary decision-making. Above all, groups differ in value criteria. The interdependence of various factors is bigger in a civilian group rather than in a military one. Moving from one group to another requires an adaptation process that is often followed by individual personal crisis; furthermore, it is followed by lack of motivation to carry on in the difficult process of transition. Hence, a “humanization” of the reintegration process is an imperative and essential element. The “humanization” element was brought into the picture with the NTF project. In that sense, the rightness of the NTF project is to be seen in having avoided the widening and deepening of social differences between citizens with different backgrounds (i.e. military and civilians) that could also have a negative impact on the further development of Serbian society. An added value of the NTF project is its understanding of the individual approach and the importance of having a job for the well-being and self-perception of each person. Self affirmation through work is one of the oldest


human traits of civilized societies. The essence of work is not only to produce for society’s consumption, but to contribute to the self-recognition of each individual. The human sense of “belonging to” emerges from work; the sense of contributing to both private and social goals emerges from work. In that sense, the NTF project has offered to discharged military personnel the opportunity to be productive, to continue with intellectual and aesthetic enabling of their lives, and to feel they are equal with others in their surroundings. Any eventual lagging behind would have multiple negative impacts in all aspects of their life and work at later stages. It is of note that the civilian job market has profited from this military transition. In fact, former military personnel offer the civilian workforce market an ethic of discipline, sound technical skills and an analytical approach to work task fulfilment. Their new positioning in job market meant a quality transfer for the receiving employer. Nevertheless, adjustments to some extent have been necessary, and the need for the creation of new working habits was inevitable due to modern economic and social concepts. Another aspect of the successful reintegration of discharged military personnel in civilian life has been the support given by the beneficiaries’ families. The full understanding and support of their families has made it much easier for former military employees to meet their families’ expectations. Family cohesion has proven to be the foundation of the society cohesion mosaic. As it relates to gender mainstreaming, the empowerment of women is a new value gained by the downsizing process through the NTF project. In many instances, the family and, very often, the beneficiary’s wife is the real driving force in holding the family together and finding ingenious ways for each of the family members to contribute to the common social and economic project started by their husband. There is a clear gender dimension in the social component of transition into civilian life by which women, through their attitude and in line with the sort of support given from the reintegration fund, can be empowered to assist their husband’s soft landing into civilian life.

4.3.2 Economic Aspects of the NTF The process of reintegration into civilian life is very complex with different effects on each affected individual. Each former defence staff member has a different point of view to the downsizing and his/her reaction, as well as their capacity to successfully integrate into civilian life, depends on personal factors such as education, place of residence, access to pension, family composition, etc. As a result, it is difficult to set up a scheme that is able to provide the proper answer to all those individual needs, but it is possible is to define a general approach and provide sufficient flexibility in that approach so that the operators are able to design a specific reintegration process on the basis of the personal needs of each applicant. Within the NTF project, such an approach has been well articulated and the general satisfaction of project beneficiaries is the main proof of its efficacy. However, in spite of those who are satisfied with the assistance received, there are others that, independently from the mechanisms and the type of assistance received, will continue to be very unhappy to enter civilian life.


After living for years within a military system that takes care of all aspects of the life of its members, it is not easy to go back to a civilian system where, especially in countries in transition, services are much more limited and not always available. The transition from military to civilian life can be a complete change in the way of living and can expose those in transition to problems and situations they are not used to. For some discharged personnel, not only is social re-adaptation an issue, but gaining new skills and developing a base of experience to deal with the civilian world can also be challenges. Some people are simply not equipped to deal with the new challenges posed by the civilian life. This section looks at problems related to the social reintegration of discharged defence personnel focusing on how the NTF project was able to mitigate them and create a smoother transition into civilian life.

WHEN BUSINESS MEANS MORE THAN MONEY:

AN EXAMPLE OF THE SOCIAL DIMENSION OF REINTEGRATION SUPPORT


Mr. X is forty-five years old and has a wife and two sons of university age. He was a senior officer in the army where he served for 30 years. When he was sent into early retirement in 2005, it was the first time he found himself at home with his wife and family for a long period of time. In the army, he was in the field from March to November every year as an army engineer. He had to learn how to live in this new environment with a small pension and no employment, and said that it had been a difficult adjustment. Then his wife had an idea to set up a tailor shop. With the grant received, they purchased two machines and one cutter to start their business in September 2007. While it is still early to talk of economic success, there is a clear indication that the business means much more than just an income for the beneficiary’s family.

When asked about how the business was going in the middle of their living quarters where they have installed a tailor’s corner with all the machines, the wife answered with an exuberant 'Super!’ When asked about the level of income, it became apparent that the business was difficult, but that the tailors’ corner in the apartment 'means much more than just money'. For the wife, it was a chance to give her husband some work (he is in charge of the cutter and patterns) and keeping him at home with something constructive to do, while adapting to family life. The man claimed that he could have certainly found a job in civil engineering, but the wife wanted to keep the husband at home. In the words of the beneficiary 'it makes a huge difference from being an officer to starting a new life in the family with no savings, so even €500 can make a big difference'. In this case the IOM support did not only contribute to business creation, it also contributed to putting the family back together again.

4.3.3. Beneficiaries of the Project

The NTF project database includes all relevant data concerning beneficiaries and their household. The vast majority of this data was collected during beneficiary registration, but the database continues to be updated throughout the assistance and monitoring periods. The registration data includes biographical information, education level, skills sets, socio-economic data and information about each beneficiary’s reintegration plan. This information is used during counselling to identify economically sustainable income generating opportunities for the beneficiary.


Registration is the starting of a process that will bring beneficiaries to combine individual capacities, experience and expertise with the NTF assistance to achieve sustainable reintegration into civilian life. During the registration and initial counselling sessions, beneficiaries have the opportunity not only to discuss issues related to the economic reintegration into a productive civilian life, but also to the social security aspects of their reintegration. For a better understanding of the impact of the project on its beneficiaries and their families, it is important to note that the project rules allow family members of the direct beneficiaries to be co-owners of the financed business provided that the direct beneficiary owns the majority of it. The project database includes information about the family of the beneficiaries and therefore allows a calculation of both the direct and indirect beneficiaries of the project. Within the NTF, direct beneficiaries are those that submit an application and receive NTF assistance as well as those that are directly involved in the financed activity (co-owners, employees etc.). Indirect beneficiaries are considered the family members of the person that received the NTF assistance that are still living in the same household and do not have a job. As indicated in table 5, 4,309 direct beneficiaries have been tracked as of the end of February 2009, with a total of 10.590 people affected when including those who have indirectly benefited from the NTF project.

Table 5 - Direct and indirect beneficiaries assisted by the NTF (Source: NTF database)

Direct Indirect Direct Indirect Direct Indirect Direct Indirect Business Sector

2006 2007 2008 200913

TOTAL

Agriculture 0 0 674 881 1,734 2,150 176 252 5,867

Manufacturing 1 3 107 202 106 183 15 30 647

Services 6 6 400 731 844 1,401 67 107 3,562

Trade 0 0 69 144 105 184 5 7 514

Total 7 9 1,250 1,958 2,789 3,918 263 396 10,590

Nearly half of the beneficiaries are involved in non-agricultural sectors with more than 6% working in the manufacturing sector. These results are very important especially when considering the relatively low monetary value of the NTF grant. The very high number of beneficiaries that are involved in the agriculture sector is easily explained by the economic situation in certain parts of the country like the south where the scarcity of employment opportunities and the financial constraints make this kind of business the most viable option. However, agricultural businesses that focus on fruit production can be very profitable in Serbia and can offer good opportunities for long term self-sustainability. Looking at the year-by-year analysis, there is general uniformity in the ratio of indirect beneficiaries to direct beneficiary, averaging 2.4. Looking at this ration across the different business sectors, it is apparent that agricultural businesses are able to sustain/involve a lower number of indirect beneficiaries (2.3) than those in the other three sectors (3.0).


4.3.4. Impact of the Project on Social and Family Life When looking at the aspect of social reintegration, the flexibility of the support given by the project and the capability of the counsellors to adapt the assistance to the specific needs of the beneficiary proved to be a major positive factor. Flexibility does not only mean the capacity to adjust the monetary values and types of assistance, but also the possibility to develop businesses with family members. In some of the disbursed business development grants, it is clear that the reintegration process is driven by a family member (spouse and/or children) who has the drive and vision to help the primary beneficiary in their soft landing into civilian life. This can be explained as either a worried reaction of a family member that suddenly sees the major source of income ending and/or as a way to build the future of the beneficiary’s children by starting a joint family activity. Independent of the reasons for setting up a family business, it is clear that the NTF project has brought added value in terms of family cohesion and encourages family support for the challenges faced by the discharged person.

WHY BUSINESS CREATION HAS TO BE FIT FOR PURPOSE AND OPEN TO FAMILY MEMBERS IF THE PRIMARY BENEFICIARY IS NOT ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF

THE ASSISTANCE HIMSELF


Mr. Y is a fifty-two year old former Colonel who served in the army for 34 years. While he had no clear idea how he could personally take advantage of the reintegration fund assistance, he has two children, ages 20 and 25 years. The firstborn is a trained hairdresser and has the corresponding diploma. After discussions with IOM field advisors, Mr. Y requested a grant for the purchase of hairdressing salon equipment in September 2007. The son claims to have the best equipped salon in the area after having benefited from the €1,500 grant. The father says that this business could not have been launched without such a grant.

The father indicated he was not prepared to be a civilian, and sees no interesting opportunities for himself and therefore requested support for his son’s business. The business is going rather well – during the one hour interview, three customers came to have their hair cut. The entire family was also there to contribute to the discussion.

To evaluate the positive impact of NTF project assistance on direct and indirect beneficiaries, the feedback part of the survey can be referenced. The positive impact towards the beneficiaries’ immediate environment as well as the positive attitude towards the future of their NTF activities was evident from the received answers. A general impression from the beneficiary interviews is that the social impact of the received assistance is of greater importance than the economic benefit gained. Although many clients applied for the assistance to gain basic income for their household budget, many found that to stay socially active through the NTF engagement helps their reintegration to a greater extent. Access to the NTF assistance (considering both counselling and grant) has given beneficiaries the opportunity to have financial support but has also kept them active and having to move in the civilian world with a specific objective.


To think about their forthcoming business ideas or to register a new business has helped beneficiaries to take their future into their own hands and has motivated them despite the negative experience of being discharged from the Army. In that respect, the NTF grant has been also working as a therapeutic tool on the social reintegration process.

Tables 6 and 7 show the data collected from the stratified sample through the questionnaires on the NTF impact on the beneficiaries’ social and family lives. Concerning the impact on their social life, it is evident that two thirds of the assisted beneficiaries consider the NTF experience as positive.

The data on the impact of the NTF project on family life shows that 74.6 % of the sample consider the NTF experience as positive for his/her family. The positive impact on the social aspects of reintegration into civilian life is somehow linked to the level of family engagement. It appears that family support in during reintegration is vital for success and increasing the chances

for a full reintegration. On the other hand, the beneficiaries that lack the support of their families are more negative about their future social reintegration.

Beside the survey, anecdotal daily contacts with beneficiaries confirm that the vast majority of them consider family engagement in the NTF financed activity as the most positive impact of the project assistance.

4.3.5. Beneficiaries’ Self -Perception of the Reintegration Process

An important element to measure the effectiveness of the project and its impact on the social and family life of beneficiaries is their attitude towards the future and how they perceive their lives a few years after the implementation of the NTF-supported activities finish.

Table 6 - Impact of the NTF on the SOCIAL life (Source: Stratified sample survey)

Yes - Positive

74,6%

Non Positive

25,4%

Table 7 - Impact of the NTF on the FAMILY life (Source: Stratified sample) survey)

Yes -

Positive

73,0%

Non Positive

27,0%

Table 6 - Impact of the NTF on the SOCIAL life (Source: Stratified sample)


The information gathered on the self-perception of the beneficiaries provides a clear picture on how the beneficiaries see themselves within the civilian environment and in their interaction with the local civilian counterparts (looking at both social and economic aspects). When asked to make a comparison between the overall current situation and the period when they were still employed by the MoD, only 39.7% of the beneficiaries stated they were in a better socio-economic situation when in MoD. Considering the rather difficult social-economic conditions of a country in transition like Serbia this percentage remains low; and it is possibly even more limited when considering that for some categories of people that were discharged with an early retirement (officer with higher rank) the civilian conditions can hardly match the military system. The level of satisfaction of beneficiaries becomes higher when they are asked to compare their own reintegration process with that of their former colleagues. Most interviewed beneficiaries felt they had found a much more successful way to integrate than their discharged colleagues. Concerning integration into their local communities, most interviewees thought they were in more or less the same situation as their neighbours, regardless of whether they were civilians or military. An analysis of two elements reveals that NTF project beneficiaries see themselves no differently than any other individual in their community, confirming their positioning on the right path towards a full and sustainable reintegration in the civilian environment. Having said that, the next step in this process is to look into their own evaluation of the transition from military to civilian life. The set of questions related to this issue are important because they point out additional aspects of self-perception of the reintegration and can confirm the correctness of their answers to the previous questions. In fact, the provided responses show the reality of the transition process and the awareness of those who really went through that difficult path with all its problems and difficulties. The survey showed that 62.7% of the interviewed beneficiaries reported that, after being discharged, they required an adjustment to civilian life. This shows that the vast majority of beneficiaries are aware of the changes they went through and know the efforts they had to make to adapt to the civilian life. On the other hand, 96.8% of the same interviewees reported to have now

successfully adapted to the civilian life which gives a very positive picture of the NTF assisted transition into civilian life. This shows that beneficiaries not only see themselves at the same level of their civilian neighbours but also think they have passed the worst moments of the downsizing. An additional element in

Former

Military

46,8%

Civilian

46,1%

Military

7,1%

Table 8 – Self Perception of the Status (Source: Stratified sample survey)


assessing the real level of reintegration into civilian life is given by an analysis of the beneficiaries` perception of their status in the communities where they are reintegrating. By asking them how they would like to be considered by the people living in their immediate surroundings, the survey tried to define if the declaration of having completed a successful transition corresponds to a real feeling or it is more a wish expressed when answering the questionnaire.

The findings in Table 8 confirm the previous conclusion of NTF project assistance having contributed to reintegration into civilian life. Only a small minority of those surveyed consider themselves as military personnel, while 93% of those surveyed think about their military life as an experience of the past. Even more encouraging for the NTF, is that almost half of the caseload already look at themselves as civilians.

It can be concluded that the NTF target group is stable and active in the local community as the self-perception part of the survey showed. The majority of NTF project beneficiaries consider themselves as productive and not different from their neighbours living in the same civilian environment. Although it cannot be considered that the transition is complete, it is clear that

the NTF project has helped beneficiaries to at least take an important step on that path. Additional confirmation of this can be found in the data included in Table 9. Only 5% of beneficiaries feel that NTF support was not relevant for their reintegration while almost half consider that same assistance as having been very essential.

4.3.6 The Social Dimension of Reintegrating into Civilian Life

One of the project’s main goals is to provide reintegration support to a certain number of redundant military personnel within a certain period of time. As already mentioned, the quantifiable aspect of that support is measured through the number of disbursed grants and loans. However the NTF assistance goes well beyond financial support. Most NTF beneficiaries had been in the army during their entire adult life and to suddenly return to a civilian status is a new process which is not always easy. This transition includes, in many cases, a new social relationship with the family and children, as well as the local community. The times and rhythms of daily activity change and the beneficiary usually spends much more time at home. The feeling of being useless is a common occurrence at the beginning of such a transition.

Table 9 – Contribution of the NTF assistance to achieve private and professional goals (Source: Stratified sample survey)

Not

Signif icantly,

5.30%

Partially,

47.10%

Very Much,

47.60%


In this regard, an important component of the NTF project is the psychological support to the discharged redundant personnel. PRISMA has taken care of this aspect by making sure that one of the counsellors at the RRCs is a psychologist. This person works in close coordination with the other counsellors to make sure that the delivered assistance is a combination of psycho-social and economic assistance. Through this particular set up, the support of the NTF/PRISMA becomes relevant for the mental well-being of the beneficiaries and that of their family members.

Collective Advice and Lessons from the Transition into Civilian Life

(Source: External Independent Evaluation of the Project Subur Consulting S.L)

� The psycho-social dimension of having someone to follow up your transition into civilian life and support you through the process is crucial; showing they truly care, having an attentive care for your problems.

� Counselling before retirement is vital in order to allow them to prepare for the change. There is a huge potential for reintegration of former army workers that, with proper guidance, could use their skills in civilian life.

� Social reintegration is more difficult than economic reintegration. At the very beginning, I had some economic security, but the fact that I became an entrepreneur and found my place in society was the key.

� IDEAS are the primary element – everyone should think harder about what to do – the rest is taking the time and prioritizing your objectives – Initially I had 3 ideas, I never lack ideas.

� First you have to find your profession and place in civilian life – organize yourself and make plans in order to avoid sitting in front of the TV. You need to remain active.

� You never know when a new opportunity will be offered to you, but it will come at some stage. It’s important to remember that constraints (age, etc.) should not dominate your will to get things done.

4.4. NTF PROJECT EFFECTIVENESS - Economic Effects This section addresses the economic impact of the NTF project. Although designed to assist the Ministry of Defence, the NTF project’s activities are not limited only to the defence sector. Generally speaking, any intervention in support of defence reform has an impact in different sectors of society and the balance between those different effects usually depends on the priorities jointly set by the donors and the concerned government at the time of project design. Categorizing the priorities set for the NTF project, at least five key areas can be defined:

a) support to defence sector reform

b) support to the local economy

c) support to regional stabilization

d) support to the socio-economic transition of Serbia; and

e) response to a potential security threat.


This section primarily addresses the impacts made under the above-mentioned priority areas two and four, giving an overview on relevant aspects of the NTF project that may not be as well known. In addition to the impact on the general economic system, this section also looks at assessing to what extent the economic life of the beneficiaries has been improved. In order to assess the impact of the NTF project in the economic sphere, the following elements have been considered: Impact on the general economic system:

� Total value generated by the project

� Newly registered businesses

� Estimated productivity of new businesses

� New jobs created

� Contribution to state budget/funds

� Macro-economic effects Impact on the economy of the beneficiaries

� Financial independence

� Skills development

� Generated earnings

WHEN SUCCESS STORIES NEED TO BE KNOWN AND DISSEMINATED AS A PULL FACTOR – A NEW BAKER STARTS RECEIVING PUBLIC RECOGNITION IN HIS TOWN

(Source: External Independent Evaluation of the Project BY: CHRISTIAN BUGNION, Director, Subur Consulting S.L)

Mr. Z is a fifty one year old former NCO with three children, who served for 35 years. After discussion with his wife, they opted to open a bakery in a kiosk in a strategic part of town leading to the marketplace.

The company was registered in March 2008 and initially all products were handmade. The husband and wife work together from Tuesday to Sunday from 7h00 to 13h00. Their problem was to find/purchase baking machinery, but with the assistance of an IOM field advisor, who found the supplier and, with the amount of the grant, the machine was purchased and the foodstuffs (donuts and 'mekica') are now produced by machines. Another problem was to prepare a business plan for requesting the grant, as they had neither computer nor internet connection. Again, the IOM field advisor helped them preparing such document.

They have been so successful that a number of press articles have been written about their case, and during the evaluation there had also been coverage on national television. During the interview a former military officer came to the kiosk to congratulate him on his success (he had seen his former colleague on the television program) and pointed out he was a good example of transition into successful civilian life for the reconverted military staff.

The couple is now making more money than anticipated, and, if they can survive the difficult winter season, they expect to increase their business in 2009. With this business so far, they have increased their income and have been able to cover the additional year of schooling for one of their sons.

4.4.1. Impact on the General Economic System:

a) Total Value Generated by the Project

Although designed as a defence related project, the portion of the NTF project budget dedicated to economic interventions (i.e. grants and loans) is


significant and comparable to other development actions in Serbia directly dedicated to poverty reduction and economic development. The total budget allocated to NTF economic intervention has been nearly 3.5 million EUR as of February 2009. This represents nearly 73% of the overall NTF project budget. When adding in the costs of other operational activities of the NTF project, slightly more than 80% of the overall NTF project budget has been used in operational activities directly reaching the final beneficiaries (Table 10).

The amount allocated in grants and loans to the beneficiaries from the NTF Reintegration Fund represents only 50% of the assessed financial needs of their businesses. The cost share requirement o f the project requires that the beneficiary cover at least 50% of the costs of setting up or improving their business with cash or in-kind resources. This pre-condition is part of the business

application that the beneficiary and the NTF counsellor develop together and that is presented to the JRP for approval.

In-kind contributions may consist of the existing assets of the beneficiary such as machinery, equipment and/or vehicles that will be dedicated to the new activity financed by the NTF RF. For existing businesses, these assets are already included in the assets register of the company. Cash contributions may consist of amounts to be spent by the beneficiary for the business financed by the NTF. They are usually dedicated to administrative payments such as registration of the business and the purchase of the additional equipment.

In order to avoid false reporting from the beneficiaries, NTF counsellors assess the existence of these committed resources (i.e. whether the asset is directly related to the business to be set-up and really owned by the applicant) through their monitoring activities. No

application is approved before such verification.

Table 11 – Value generated by the project (Source: NTF database)

Value Generated by the Project

NTF Contribution € 3,504,653

Candidate Contribution

In kind € 4,020,811 (2,010,405)

In Cash € 5,935,367

TOTAL € 13,460,831 (11,450,425)

Operational

activities

80%

Structure

20%

Table 10 – Analysis of the NTF allocation of funds (Source: NTF database)


Table 11 calculates the amount invested by the NTF and the contributions of beneficiaries as part of the total value generated by the NTF project, which as of February 2009 stood at nearly € 13.5 million. Documented evidence on the matching contributions are on file with the NTF project staff. Since in kind contributions are evaluated using a value that does not always correspond to the market price (i.e. the nominal value of a two-year old tractor is likely greater than the real price the owner could get on the market, especially in conditions of global economic crisis), the research team has decided to reduce that estimation by 50%. Therefore, a more realistic in-kind contribution of just over € 2 million would bring the total value generated by the project to € 11.4 million. Table 11 also shows that the candidate contributions mobilized by the NTF are much higher than the 50% required by the project rules, confirming that in most of the cases, the NTF stimulates investments by beneficiaries in starting their business rather than pushing them to do something they do not want only to access the funds. b) Newly Registered Businesses The most evident economic impact of the disbursement of the project grants is the establishment of 1,847 newly registered businesses. The plans for these businesses were developed through a counselling process also aimed at developing long term self-sustainability. Moreover, NTF assistance is not designed to stop with the disbursement of the grants; through regular monitoring activities, NTF counsellors continue to be in contact with the beneficiaries providing support that goes from general advice to direct coaching according to individual needs. An additional positive element of NTF economic assistance is that all 1,857 businesses (1,847 new businesses and 10 existing businesses) financed by the NTF project are legally registered. From a general estimation based on the results of the counselling sessions, approximately 30% of the clients used NTF assistance to legalize a business they were previously running in the informal “grey” economy, while about 5% converted their hobby into a registered business. Beneficiaries that are involved in agriculture activities are required to register their households with the Ministry of Agriculture, while all others register their business within the Serbian Business Registers Agency (SBRA) as either a company or an entrepreneurial activity in accordance with Serbian law. Copies of all registration documents issued by the relevant institutions are on file with the NTF project.

As shown in Table 12, the vast majority of beneficiaries chose to create a business in the agricultural sector, while nearly 31% started a service-related activity. Slightly more than 4% of beneficiaries chose to develop a manufacturing-oriented enterprise and 3% are now involved with trade activities. The most frequent activities financed in the agriculture sector are fruit and vegetable growing, bee-keeping and animal breeding. As already mentioned, the selection of agricultural activities by such a large portion of beneficiaries can be explained in part by the general economic crisis, the lack of


opportunities to set up a viable service or manufacturing business in the poorer areas of the country, and the relatively low risk to lose the invested

funds. Within the services related sector, the most common activities are security services, IT services, accounting, project management, repair services, marketing and taxi companies. Manufacturing-oriented

enterprises focused mainly on the

manufacturing of souvenirs, handicrafts, furniture, clothes, and the processing / freezing of fruit and vegetables to be sold to companies that are exporting frozen / dry fruits. From a geographic point of view, it appears that services and production-related businesses were most often developed in and around cities, while agriculture was chosen as a business in both the south and north of the country. In order to encourage the launching of new production-related businesses, production businesses that have concrete perspectives for future development, have since the start of third year of the NTF project been eligible for a flexible grant. Any new applicants that are willing to start a business with the above mentioned characteristics can submit a request to the JRP to access a flexible grant up to 3,000 EUR. Although it is too early to define the results of this new initiative, the preliminary results are very encouraging with an increasing rate of success for those businesses assisted with the flexible grant. In order to fully evaluate the impact of the NTF project on the Serbian economy it is not sufficient to look only at how many companies have been established but rather at how many are able to continue to operate on the market for a sustained period of time. It is generally understood that, in order to measure the self sustainability of a business it is necessary to look at its performance after a minimum of two to three years. In the case of the NTF project, it is not possible to yet observe the performance after three years but, as indicated in section 3.4, more than 80% of the established businesses are still operative after two years of activity. c) Estimated Productivity of Newly Registered Businesses Net income is one of the elements that can help evaluate the productivity of the NTF financed businesses. Net income is calculated by taking the value of the total revenues of the company and deducting the costs related to the running/managing of the business, including the depreciation of assets, interest on loans, taxes and other expenses. Net income is included in the company's income statement and is generally used as indicator on how profitable the company is over a period of time (the same figure is also used to calculate earnings per share).

Table 12 – Newly registered businesses (Source: NTF database)

TOTAL New NTF Companies

2006 2007 2008 02/2009 TOTAL

Agriculture 0 298 762 89 1.149

Manufacturing 0 31 29 6 66

Services 2 180 351 38 571

Trade 0 26 33 2 61

TOTAL 2 535 1,175 135 1,847


According to the data provided by beneficiaries to the NTF project team, more than € 5 million in net income can be estimated in relation to all supported businesses within the period of one year after their establishment.

Another indicator that can be used to give a proper picture of the productivity of the new businesses is cash flow. Cash flow refers to the movement of cash into and out of a business, or project, or financial product and measures the level of trade performed by a certain activity within a specific period of time.

In the case of the NTF project, the research team has analyzed the cash flow documents as well as the evidence for payments made by the beneficiaries as registered in the NTF database to identify those elements that are necessary to evaluate the cash inflows and outflows. Below is a list of the elements used to determine the cash inflows:

o Payment for goods or services received from customers

o Receipt of a bank loan

o Interest on bank savings and/or financial investments

o Investments provided by shareholders

o Increase in bank overdrafts or line of credit

Below is a list of the elements used to determine the cash outflows:

o Purchase of stock, raw materials or tools

o Wages, rents and other day to day operational expenditures

o Purchase of fixed assets - PCs, machinery, office furniture, etc.

o Loan repayments

o Payments of dividends to shareholders

o Income tax, corporate tax, VAT and other taxes

o Reduced overdraft facilities Table 14 shows the results of the analysis conducted by the research team analyzing the cash flow expressed by the NTF businesses over the first year of their existence. As indicated in the table, the overall result is very positive with a positive cash flow of more than € 5.5 million.

Table 13 - Net income generated by the NTF project (Source: NTF database)

YEAR Total Net Income Generated by

NTF companies 2007 2008 02/2009 TOTAL€

Agriculture 485,833 2,114,594 327,039 2,927,465

Manufacturing 68,088 118,456 2,.621 212,165

Services 437,952 1,174,452 148,146 1,760,551

Trade 30,659 144,058 5,490 180,207

Total € 1,022,532 3,551,559 506,296 5,080,388

Table 14 – Inflows & outflows of companies created through the NTF project (Source: NTF database)

EURO YEAR

INFLOWS OUTFLOWS TOTAL

2007 3,494,420 2,471,888 € 5,966,309

2008 10,714,711 7,163,152 € 17,877,l863

2009 1,102,824 596,528 € 1,699,352

Total € 15,311,956 € 10,231,568 € 5,543,525

Average x 1,857 NTF businesses

€ 8,290 € 5,540


This figure should be viewed only as indicative data since NTF project staffs are unable to certify the accuracy of all submitted documents by beneficiaries. However, using this figure means that the average cash flow per newly registered business is estimated to be € 3,000 in their first year of operation. Another element emerging from the data in Table 14 is the annual turnover of NTF supported businesses. The average first year turnover (€ 13,830) of NTF companies is quite considerable and shows their real involvement in concrete business activities. Positive cash flow is an encouraging indicator for the future self-sustainability of the companies supported by the NTF project and shows that substantial economic activity has been generated by the project. d) New Jobs Created The creation of jobs is, together with the number of new businesses established, the most evident parameter for measuring the economic impact of the NTF project. For the purpose of calculating new employment opportunities generated by the project, the research team is looking at the jobs created by each active business during a period of time that goes from their establishment to one year of activity (not calculating further multiplier effects after the first year). A distinction is made between self-employed, those beneficiaries that are directly employed in their own business, and employed, referring to those that are working in a company set up by a person that is different from the beneficiary. However, considering that many of the NTF businesses are family-run, many of the people employed by those businesses are indeed family members of the beneficiary. Evidence of job creation is given by the copies of the official documents provided by the employers (NTF beneficiaries and non) on file with the NTF project14.

Analysis of the data included in the NTF database reveals that the NTF project has a significant impact on employment generation. Table 15 shows that project has managed to create a total of 4,309 jobs. Of that total, 3,938 (91%) jobs are created through the business creation support component while the other 371 positions were generated through the subsidized employment component.

Table 15 - New jobs created through the NTF Assistance (Source: NTF database)

Sel

f

emp

loye

d

Em

plo

yed

Sel

f

emp

loye

d

Em

plo

yed

Sel

f

emp

loye

d

Em

plo

yed

Sel

f

emp

loye

d

Em

plo

yed

NEW JOBS CREATED

2006 2007 2008 02/2009

TOTAL

Agriculture 0 0 298 376 762 972 89 87 2,584

Manufacturing 0 1 31 76 29 77 6 9 229

Services 2 4 180 220 351 493 38 29 1,317

Trade 0 0 26 43 33 72 2 3 179

2 5 535 715 1,175 1,614 135 128 TOTAL

7 1,250 2,789 263 4,309


Considering the amount of the grant/loan as well as the goal of assisting discharged defence personnel in their reintegration into civilian life, it would be expected that the vast majority of the NTF support would have produced only self employment. However, the statistical data shows the opposite. In the period ending February 2009, only 43% of the jobs created through the NTF are related to self employment. This percentage increases to 46% when looking only at those jobs that were created through the business grant and excluding the loans. Regarding the sectors where the employment was generated, agriculture is the most relevant for both employment and self-employment, while services and manufacturing are the sectors where the majority of the employment has been generated partly due to those being the sectors where the majority of jobs were created through subsidized employment. Regarding the long term sustainability of these jobs, for those self employed and employed in the businesses developed through the NTF RF, continued employment is clearly linked to the self sustainability of the businesses while a different analysis needs to be made for the jobs created through subsidized employment. As defined by the Agreement on Gross Salary Support, signed between IOM and the employer, the, employer is obliged to employ the project beneficiary full-time for a minimum period of 12 months, to regularly pay salaries and other taxes and contributions in accordance with Serbian law and to submit the relevant proofs to IOM every four months. Considering the amount of the subsidy is not enough to cover the entire cost of the employee, it is obvious that there is no interest in faking an employment only to receive the NTF funds. e) Contribution to State Budget/Funds By creating new companies and generating employment, the NTF project is also producing revenues for the state, especially in terms of taxes and social contributions. The income tax rate on employee salaries is 12%. According to the Law on Social Insurance Contributions in Republic of Serbia, the rates for mandatory social security contributions are 11% for pension and disability insurance, 6.15% for health insurance and 0.75% for unemployment insurance

Social security contributions are paid by both the employer and the employee. According to the law, the base for calculating the amount to be disbursed on social security contributions and personal income tax is the gross salary15. Considering that 4,309 jobs have been created and assuming a salary that corresponds to the minimum wage foreseen

Table 16 - Contribution to the State budget/funds (Source: NTF database)

Employment - Number of Jobs Created1 4,309

Gross Earnings Generated € 13,435,148

TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS AMOUNTS

Social Security Contributions Paid by the Employer € 2,404,891

Social Security Contributions Paid by the Employee € 2,404,891

Personal Income Tax Paid on Salaries € 1,612,217

TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO STATE BUDGET/FUNDS € 6,422,000


by the law, the cumulative gross earnings generated by the project amounts to € 13,435,148. Table 16 summarizes the data related to the contributions to the state budget/funds adding to the social contributions paid by the employer those disbursed by the employee and the personal income tax on salary. The resultant sum of € 6.4 million is extremely cautious and does not look at the salaries declared to be paid by employers/employees, but rather assumes t minimum wage for all newly created jobs. This sum also does not capture all of the additional taxes foreseen by the law for active businesses. To more clearly demonstrate the indirect impact of NTF project assistance on the budget/funds of the state, the research team has developed a simple calculation that depicts the total financial return to the state for each euro invested by the NTF donors in the project.

According to this calculation, for every euro invested by the NTF project for the development of new

businesses, the return to the Serbian state budget/funds is almost double. f) Macroeconomic Effects The data presented in previous sections show the significant impact on local communities and local labour markets of the NTF project. This section addresses the impact on the macroeconomic level.

Table 18

Employment Levels (in persons)

Official Statistics for the Republic of Serbia Source: Republican Statistical Office

TYPE SECTOR 2005 2006 2007 2008

Agriculture 58,336 58,336 54,090 48,505

Manufacturing 493,297 493,297 460,395 439,457

Services 317,527 317,527 313,414 322,081

Trade 197,808 197,808 196,216 199,495

EMPLOYED IN ENTERPRISES16

Total 1,066,968 1,066,968 1,024,115 1,009,538

SELF EMPLOYMENT

Total 553,877 553,877 569,494 571,019

As indicated in Tables 18 and 19, the period of 2006 to 2008 was marked by intense changes in the Serbian labour market as restructuring in many sectors of the Serbian economy led to severe employment cuts. Total employment in the economy (excluding administration, health and education) fell by 5.4%, 4.0% and 1.4% in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively (see Table 22). This trend was accompanied by a growing rate of self-employment which rose by 6%, 2.8% and 0.3% in the same period of time. Against that macro-economic background, the job creation figures of the NTF project are quite relevant. In cumulative terms, the project-related new

Table 17

Added-Value to the State Economy / NTF Contribution

6.422.000,74 / 3.504.653,30 = 1.83


employment generated in both the employment and self employment sectors are independent of the negative trends of the general market (Table 20).

Table 19

Yearly Change in Official Employment Data (in persons)

TYPE SECTOR 2006 2007 2008

Agriculture -5551 -4246 -5585

Manufacturing -42759 -32902 -20938

Services -5667 -4113 8667

Trade -6922 -1592 3279


Total - 60899 - 42853 - 14577

SELF EMPLOYMENT

Total 31384 15617 1525

Looking at the macroeconomic data as it relates to the agricultural sector (the most relevant in terms of new businesses and employment within the NTF project), it can be observed that, while the national employment rate fell by 4,000 – 5,000 per year during 2006 to 2008, the NTF project generated nearly 400 new jobs in 2007 and almost 1,000 in 2008.

Table 20

New Employment Generated by the NTF Project (in persons) Source: NTF database

TYPE SECTOR 2006 2007 2008

Agriculture 0 376 972

Manufacturing 1 76 77

Services 4 220 493

Trade 0 43 72


Total 5 715 1614

SELF EMPLOYMENT Total 2 535 1175

Likewise, the falling trend in the macroeconomic figures related to employment in the service sector was effectively countered by new NTF project-related positions with some 700 new jobs created during the period between 2006 and 2008.

Table 21 analyses the impact of the NTF project in direct relation to the general employment in Serbia. Although the available data does not allow a precise comparison, an interesting ratio can be

identified in relation to self-employment. The percent of new jobs created by the project in ratio to the countrywide figures for self-employment grew from 3.43% in 2006 to an impressive 77.05% in 2008.

Table 21

Employment Generated by the NTF Project as a Percentage of Official Employment Changes (only for positive employment changes)

TYPE SECTOR 2007 2008

Services - 5.69 EMPLOYED IN ENTERPRISES1 Trade - 2.20

SELF EMPLOYMENT Total 3.43 77.05


4.3.6. Impact on the Economy of the Beneficiaries

a) Financial Independence When analyzing the NTF project’s impact on its beneficiaries, one of the most important results is the economic impact of NTF assistance on the household budget. The household income of the majority of the beneficiaries is not sufficient for maintaining a level of living that is comparable to the one they

had in the military. In certain cases, discharged personnel are not entitled to a pension and find him/herself in the civilian labour market like any other unemployed person. For these individuals, NTF assistance is welcomed as the only option to “survive” the transition.

Looking at the figures related to the income levels as declared to the NTF project by the beneficiaries surveyed, it appears that 54.8% of claim to have an income

that is higher than before the intervention. Because this is a somewhat expectable result, the survey also looked at the beneficiary perception of their current income (with the NTF assistance) as compared to people living in their same local environment. More than 42% of the beneficiaries felt that their income is higher than that of those living in their environment, while only 19% expressed a belief that their incomes were lower (Table 22). Since it was not possible for NTF staff to precisely check the declarations made by beneficiaries about their previous income, the question on perception of income relative to their neighbours may be more relevant when trying to look at the income levels within the general framework of the integration process. It is clear that the majority of the people assisted by the NTF project perceive that their income as equal to or better than the income of his/her neighbours and consequently they are better off when dealing with the challenges of the civilian life.

As already mentioned, the survey has established that the NTF project has a more positive socio-economic effect on business start up in situations where the participation of the family

members is strong. Beneficiaries have also reported that the NTF supported activity provides for a substantial portion of household budget. Trying to quantify these two elements and translate them into a figure that shows the income levels pre and post NTF assistance, the research team has conducted a specific analysis of the NTF data (Table 23).

Higher

42%

Same

39%

Lower

19%

Table 22 – Perception on income level (Source: Stratified Sample)

Table 23 - Income level before/after the NTF assistance (Sour: NTF database)

Total Household Income before NTF Assistance € 14.197.354

Total Household Income after NTF Assistance € 18.769.703

Percentage Increase in Household Income 32 %


Because the data related to the household income before the NTF are based on the voluntary declaration of each beneficiary, the results of the analysis cannot be

taken as 100% reliable. However, this data certainly give an indication of the general trend. Looking at the results of the analysis in Table 26, the average family assisted by the NTF recorded an increase in income of 32% and a rise on his/her salary from € 461 to € 610 (Table 24).

The analysis of the average salary becomes even more relevant if the results are compared with the average consumer basket in Serbia calculated during the period of 2007 to 2008. The figures in Table 24 demonstrate that, prior to NTF assistance, beneficiaries were using almost all their salary to cover their living expenditures. With the intervention of the NTF project, their financial capacities have

drastically increased to almost double the average consumer basket. While the majority of beneficiaries, according to the survey, report having a better income after receiving NTF assistance, this question was posed in a moment in the reintegration process when they are just starting their productive civilian life and therefore may be favourably impressed by the support and assistance received by the project.

Understanding that, the research team chose to dig deeper and posed a second question that asked the beneficiaries about their perspectives on their future.

Table 25 reports the results of that query and shows that the vast majority of assisted clients (93.7%) are convinced that they will continue to engage in their respective activities.

Yes

93,7%

No

6,3%

Table 25 – Future engagement in the NTF activity (Source: Stratified Sample)

As expected

43%

Good

40%

Poor

12%

Above

expected

5%

Table 26 - Self Evaluation of Results Achieved (Source: Stratified Sample)

Table 24 – Average salary (Source: NTF database)

Average Salary Before NTF Assistance € 461

Average Salary After NTF Assistance € 610

Average Consumer Basket in Serbia (2007– 2008) € 390


To better analyze that data, they should be read together with Table 26 that reports on the level of personal satisfaction of the assisted beneficiaries. The results in Table 26 show that only 12% consider the results achieved in a negative way, while more than 83% are satisfied with the outcomes of their involvement with the NTF project. 43% stated that the results are “as expected”, an answer that is considered as a positive opinion of the project.

While these results should be taken only as a general trend, they show positive impact on the beneficiaries and on their morale, in particular. It is clear that the optimism showed by the vast majority of the beneficiaries constitute an essential element for their future success.

b) Skills Development

Skills development, as a component of personal development, has multiple benefits: it can help develop the entrepreneurial potential of a beneficiary, enhance productivity, stimulate economic competitiveness, contribute to the integration in the civilian job market by providing civilian job skills, and help mitigate vulnerable social conditions (poverty, isolation etc.).

Over the last three years, the NTF project has financed a total of 308 skills development courses. A breakdown of those courses shows that:

o 34% (105) were language courses;

o 22% (68) were bookkeeping courses;

o 19% (59) were computer related courses;

o 8% (24) were work safety administration courses;

o 8% (24) were management courses

o 9% (28) were related to other types of courses19. Comparing the above course statistics to the recent research about the employment opportunities conducted by the largest job search website in Serbia, infostud.com, several conclusions related to the impact of the NTF courses can be drawn. According to the data presented at www.infostud.com, the following are the most frequent positions being recruited for:

The NTF financed courses had the highest impact on beneficiary employment opportunities in the field of business administration, a category that represents 15% of all job opportunities listed on infostud.com. The NTF courses relevant for this employment field are basic or advanced language skills, computer skills and to some extent work safety administration competencies. In total, relevant courses for this employment field amount to 61% of all NTF financed courses. Survey showed that 11% of all announced job vacancies on infostud.com are in the field of economy. Language and computer skills courses are general skill sets for this field of employment and account for 53% of all NTF financed courses. Management and bookkeeping courses offer even more direct relevance to jobs in the field of economy and account for 27% of all NTF financed courses. More than 80% of NTF financed courses have either


general or direct relevance to responding to job market needs in the field of economy. Other correlations exist between the NTF offered courses and the job market demands as determined by listings on infostud.com. For example, IT and telecommunications represent 6% of the announced job vacancies while 19% of the NTF courses are relevant in this field. Employment opportunities in the field of management accounted for 10% of all vacancies, while 5% of the NTF courses directly built skill sets in this particular field. c) Generated Earnings Under the subsidized employment component of the project, salary support payments are made by IOM directly to the employer in quarterly instalments. A sustainability check of the proposed employment is conducted prior to approving the request. A contract for a minimum duration of 12 months is requested and proof of salary as well as taxes and contribution payments is asked to be documented quarterly by the employer before disbursement of the subsidy subvention. Due to this accountable and rigorous monitoring, we are able to present reliable data for the earnings generated by the beneficiaries that received NTF assistance. Regarding self employment salaries, the basis for calculation is the minimum salary required by the Serbian Labour Law. More than €13.4 Million is generated by NTF subsidized employment in the first year of employment (Table 28). Due to the nature of the one year project monitoring cycle, it is not possible to predict what the totals would be for subsequent years of employment.

Trade and marketing 20% Business administration 15% Economy (general) 11% Consulting 10% Electro-Technical 8% IT and Telecom 6% Construction 5.5% Law 3% Hospitality 3% Other areas that are less represented as job offers 18.5%

Table 27 – Most available jobs on the Serbian market (Source www.infostud.com )


Table 28 - Total earnings generated by the NTF activities (Source: NTF database)

Gross Salaries

Gross Wages

Gross Salaries

Gross Wages

Gross Salaries

Gross Wages

Gross Salaries

Gross Wages

Annual Earnings

Created by NTF Project 2006 2007 2008 02/2009

TOTAL

Agriculture 0 0 2.096.045 8.664 5.311.658 0 566.227 0 7.982.594

Manufacturing 0 5.291 224.243 127.896 226.680 112.844 38.606 7.388 742.948

Services 15.952 0 1.005.977 290.665 2.086.066 503.459 202.684 17.364 4.122.166

Trade 0 0 143.266 87.729 226.680 114.648 12.869 2.242 587.434

15.952 5.291 3.469.531 514.954 7.851.084 730.951 820.386 26.994 Total

€ 21.243 € 3.984.484 € 8.582.035 € 847.380 € 13.435.143


5. CONCLUSION In this publication, we have set out to determine whether NTF provided socio-economic assistance to the laid off military personnel through a close cooperation between MoD/PRISMA and IOM, as well as to set a reference guide on targets to be met by similar projects. The elaborate analysis detailed above presented us with the following conclusions.

a) The project surpassed its initially set goal in relation to its main scope. By the end of the project, more than 3,194 individuals will have received counselling and assistance.

b) The project had 118 activities aimed at promoting the integration of the beneficiaries into civilian life, including job fairs attended by a total of 1,613 participants, were organized in more than 24 municipalities in Serbia. The NTF project has financed a total of 308 skills development courses, directly increasing beneficiaries’ competitive advantage on the labour market and indirectly setting in motion an entrepreneurial way of thinking.

c) The average grant/loan approval rate has been 92 per month. 2,536 projects have been approved, 10 are on hold and pending further assessment, 32 have been rejected. These figures demonstrate strong project efficiency.

d) In terms of customer satisfaction, beneficiaries were extremely pleased with the support they had received. The majority of beneficiaries stated they received the expected outputs of the project and the entire range of services as foreseen:

o The counselling assistance satisfaction rate was 81.7%.

o The financial assistance satisfaction rate was 97.6%.

e) The satisfaction shown by the stakeholders was also outstanding.

f) 43.7% of the beneficiaries surveyed stated that the joint socio-economic impact of NTF assistance had the greatest importance in their civilian integration .

g) The number of people who indirectly benefited from the project is more than two times the number of those who received support, showing multiple impact of the project.

h) Many clients found that the activities they were involved in through the project were socially advantageous for them, apart from and beyond the financial assistance provided. This is because family support during the reintegration process showed to be of vital importance and the NTF strategy to include family members in business development was a sound and intelligent approach contributing to both the economic and social reintegration of the beneficiaries.

i) Less than 1% of the beneficiaries were negative about their socio-economic future, 71% were positive, and 28% were neutral.

j) 62.7% of the beneficiaries surveyed required an adjustment to civilian life after being discharged. 97% of them believe they have successfully reintegrated.

k) 39.7% of the clients surveyed stated that they were in a better socio-economic situation than their former colleagues who were not laid off.

l) As compared with the paths taken by other discharged colleagues, most beneficiaries surveyed considered the NTF project methodology a more successful way to reintegrate.


We can conclude the project accomplished its strategic objectives in the field of social reintegration of former military personnel. The data listed above clearly show an interconnection between the NTF project and successful social integration.

The project generated a number of positive economic effects for both beneficiaries and the state economy.

m) Following the receipt of NFT assistance, the average family recorded an increase in monthly household income of 32%, a rise from € 461 to € 610.

n) 42.1% of beneficiaries surveyed believe their income is higher than that of their fellow members in their community, 39% think it is the same, while 19% consider it to be lower. In this regard, the project showed multiple benefits: as the income of beneficiaries increased the self perception of their social status changed for the better thus giving them genuine financial benefit and independence, with an overall feeling of accomplishment.

o) 93.7% of the beneficiaries surveyed wish to continue their NTF-financed activities. This goes towards affirming the positive impact in motivating beneficiaries to continue to work, signifying dual advantages by inspiring a more progressive and entrepreneurial environment for sustainable economic growth.

p) The most immediate economic effects caused by NTF activities have been:

o 1,847 new businesses created

o 4,309 new jobs created

o Businesses generated more than € 5 million in first year net income

o Beneficiaries generated more than € 13 Million in first year earnings

q) All recipients of the business creation grant legally registered their businesses, and roughly 30% of the clients legalized their prior “grey” business activities as the result of the project.

r) It is estimated that the Republic of Serbia has collected over € 6 million in revenues as a direct result of the project. For every euro invested as an NTF project contribution, €1.83 returned to the Serbian state coffers.

s) Essentially, the project can be evaluated as very successful in generating new employment and contributing to countering the negative labour trends in the Serbian market. This positive effect was particularly felt in the agriculture sector and among the self-employed, where project-related jobs added considerably to the country-level labour flows.

The conclusions mentioned above are clear indicators of a very successful socio-economic project, meeting and surpassing all the goals set forth by the donor.

The project has fulfilled its purpose of helping beneficiaries to attain social integration, with a particular positive impact pertaining to the social and family aspects of their lives.

The NTF project has generated both short-term and long-term positive economic effects. It has addressed a number of collateral issues including skill development and setting in motion a more entrepreneurial way of thinking. The project is a perfect example of a successful socio-economic assistance program that can serve as a blue print for similar endeavours in public administration reform and public enterprise reconstruction.


BIBLIOGRAFY

Project related documentation

� IOM First Monitoring report, July – October 2008, IOM/NTF project

� PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Independent Auditor’s Report, 31 July 2008

� 6th PMU meeting minutes, 7 May 2008

� IOM project document 13.12.2007

� Individual beneficiary profiles for all interviewees (registration and support information)

� IOM/NTF Client monitoring form

� IOM/NTF fact sheet February 2009

� 1st and 2nd External Independent Evaluation of the Project by : CHRISTIAN BUGNION, Director, Subur Consulting S.L.

� 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Interim Report to the Ministry of Foreign affairs of Norway,

� IOM/NTF - Statistical data an analysis of registration, counselling and disbursement activities NATO-PFP Trust Fund Project, 28 February 2009

� General JRP rules, latest version

� Second donors meeting, NATO-PFP TF, 17 June 2008

� IOM, NATO TF charter of the Joint Review Panel (JRP)

� IOM, Proposal for a NTF/PFP Trust Fund Project for Assistance to Redundant Military Personnel within the scope of the defence sector reform in Serbia;

� IOM statistics of the entire target group and the total registered caseload

� MOU between IOM and MoD, 3.5.2006;

� Addendum to MOU, 5.3.2007;

� NTF Project organization chart;

� Minutes of the Steering Committee Meetings (2006-2008);

� Executive Agreement between Norway (NTF Lead Country) and IOM, 2.05.06;

� Minutes of PMU meetings (2006-2009);

� IOM 2nd Interim report to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway, 1.1.07-30.06.07;

� IOM Brief overview on the implementation of the NATO/PFP Trust Fund Assistance to Redundant Military Personnel, 3.09.2007;

� NATO Trust Fund for Bosnia and Herzegovina, power point presentation;

� NTF for Serbia, power point presentations of 5.12.06, 15.12.06, 10.5.07, 6.09.07;

� IOM Internal document, Main rules for receiving NTF assistance;

� IOM Original Program document;

� Financial management agreement between contributing nationals and the NATO office of financial control of the Trust Fund Project

� NATO official web site: “The Partnership for Peace”

� NATO official web site: “NATO/PfP Trust Fund Policy”

� IOM-NTF/PfP Serbia official web site: “The IOM- NATO Trust Fund for assistance to Discharged Defence Personnel”


Literature

� Corbetta, P. (2003). Social Research Theory, Methods and Techniques. London: SAGE Publications.

� DAC evaluation quality standards, Development Assistance Committee (DAC) at the OECD

� David, M. & Sutton C.D. (2004). Social Research the Basics. London: SAGE Publications

� Douglas A. Lind, William G. Marchal & Robert D. Mason, Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics, Eleventh Edition

� Glen Weisbrod, Measuring Economic Impacts of Projects and Programs, Economic Development Research Group

� Gray, D. E. (2004). Doing Research in the Real World. London: SAGE Publications.

� Gundlach E (1995). “The role of human capital in economic growth: New results and alternative interpretations. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive

� Isaac and Michael, Recommended sample sizes for two different precision levels , 1981; Smith, MF, 1983

� Judy L. Baker, Evaluating the Impact of Development Projects on Poverty, The World Bank

� Larry W. Kreuger, W. Lawrence Neuman, Social Work Research Methods, Allyn & Bacon, 2006.

� M. Q. Patton, Utilization-focused evaluation, 3rd edition, sage publications

� Milanović, Milan.2006.A country of trust: Economic effects of joining Partnership for Peace Defence, special addition No 12: Serbia and Partnership for Peace.

� O’Leary, A. (2004). The Essential Guide to Doing Research. London: SAGE Publications.

� Papić, Gorislav.12 April 2007. Serbia and NATO: seeking the ways to the West. NIN No.2937.

� UNEG norms for evaluation in the UN system

� UNEG standards for evaluation in the UN system

� Zorana Atanasović, Public Opinion of Serbia on Joining NATO, Central and Eastern European Online Library , 2007

� William G. Zikmund (2003), Business Research Method, 7th Edition, Oklahoma State University


■■■ Appendix 1 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS


A). Types of Research

There are tree types of research that are used in order to answer question why we want to do the research?

1. Exploratory Research - is a type of research conducted because a problem has not been clearly defined. Exploratory research helps determine the best research design, data collection method and selection of subjects. Given its fundamental nature, exploratory research often concludes that a perceived problem does not actually exist.

2. Descriptive Research - also known as statistical research, describes data and characteristics about the population or phenomenon being studied. Descriptive research answers the questions who, what, where, when and how.

3. Causal Research - experiments on causal relationships investigating the effect of one or more variables on one or more outcome variables. This type of research also determines if one variable causes another variable to occur or change.

Qualitative vs. Quantitative research

Two different forms of research that consider different data types are: qualitative and quantitative research. There are numerous differences between qualitative and quantitative measurement:

Quantitative Research

Quantitative research is research involving the use of structured questions where the response options have been predetermined and a large number of respondents are involved. By definition, measurement must be objective, quantitative and statistically valid. Simply put, it’s about numbers, objective hard data. The sample size for a survey is calculated by statisticians using formulas to determine how large a sample size will be needed from a given population in order to achieve findings with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Generally, researchers seek sample sizes which yield findings with at least 95% confidence interval (which means that if you repeat the survey 100 times, 95 times out of a hundred, you would get the same response) and plus/minus 5 percentage points margin error. Many surveys are designed to produce smaller margin of error.

Qualitative Research

Qualitative Research is collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data by observing what people do and say. Whereas, quantitative research refers to counts and measures of things, qualitative research refers to the meanings, concepts, definitions, characteristics, metaphors, symbols, and descriptions of things. Qualitative research is much more subjective than quantitative research and uses very different methods of collecting information, mainly individual, in-depth interviews and focus groups. The nature of this type of research is exploratory and open-ended. Small numbers of people are interviewed in-depth and/or a relatively small number of focus groups are conducted. Participants are asked to respond to general questions and the interviewer or group moderator probes and explores their responses to identify and define people’s perceptions, opinions and feelings about the topic or idea


being discussed and to determine the degree of agreement that exists in the group. The quality of the finding from qualitative research is directly dependent upon the skills, experience and sensitive of the interviewer or group moderator. This type of research is often less costly than surveys and is extremely effective in acquiring information about people’s communications needs and their responses to and views about specific communications. Basically, quantitative research is objective; qualitative is subjective. Quantitative research seeks explanatory laws; qualitative research aims at in-depth description. Qualitative research measures what it assumes to be a static reality in hopes of developing universal laws. Qualitative research is an exploration of what is assumed to be a dynamic reality. It does not claim that what is discovered in the process is universal, and thus, replicable. Common differences usually cited between these types of research include.

• In general, qualitative research generates rich, detailed and valid (process) data that contribute to in-depth understanding of the context. Quantitative research generates reliable population based and general data and is well suited to establishing cause-and-effect relationships.

• The decision of whether to choose a quantitative or a qualitative design is a philosophical question. Which methods to choose will depend on the nature of the project, the type of information needed the context of the study and the availability of recourses (time, money, and human).

It is important to keep in mind that these are two different philosophers, not necessarily polar opposites. In fact, elements of both designs can be used together in mixed-methods studies. Combining of qualitative and quantitative research is becoming more and more common20. Every method is different line of sight directed toward the same point, observing social and symbolic reality. The use of multiple lines of sight is called triangulation.

More Applied Research

Researches can be used to advance general knowledge trough basic or academic studies. Researches also can be used to addresses more practical concerns in applying knowledge gained from research for a particular purpose. Based on the purposes for which the researches are conducted, they may be divided into following categories:

1. Baseline/Bench-mark survey/Research.

2. Impact assessment/research

3. Feasibility studies

4. Evaluation Research

� Baseline Survey

A baseline survey is a research in which data on pre-project socio-economic and business aspects are generated in order to facilitate the assessment of future impact of project intervention. A baseline survey is conducted in the absence of available published data on various socio-economic and business aspects.


� Impact Assessment

The research, which is undertaken to measure the quantitative benefits derived out of project intervention and qualitative changes that occurred due to project intervention, is known as an impact assessment research. This type of research also provides information for identifying the negative impact of the project.

� Feasibility Studies

This type of research is undertaken prior to starting of any business enterprise or any business related project. This type of research is done to assess the technical, economic, market and financial viability of the project. The issue whether the project is desirable and environmentally acceptable is also taken into consideration.

� Evaluation Research

Evaluation is a methodological area that is closely related to, but distinguishable from more traditional research. Evaluation utilizes many of the same methodologies used in traditional research, but because evaluation takes place within a political and organizational context, it requires group skills, management ability, political dexterity, sensitivity to multiple stakeholders and other skills that traditional research in general does not rely on as much. - Definitions of Evaluation Probably the most frequently given definition is: Evaluation is the systematic assessment of the worth or merit of some object21 This definition is hardly perfect. There are many types of evaluations that do not necessarily result in an assessment of worth or merit – descriptive studies, implementation analyses, and formative evaluations, to name a few. Better perhaps is a definition that emphasizes the information-processing and feedback functions of evaluation. For instance, one might say: Evaluation is the systematic acquisition and assessment of information to provide useful feedback about some object Both definitions agree that evaluation is a systematic endeavour and both use the deliberately ambiguous term ‘object’ which could refer to a program, policy, technology, person, need, activity, and so on. The latter definition emphasizes acquiring and assessing information rather than assessing worth or merit because all evaluation work involves collecting and sifting through data, making judgments about the validity of the information and of inferences we derive from it, whether or not an assessment of worth or merit results. - The Goals of Evaluation The generic goal of most evaluations is to provide "useful feedback" to a variety of audiences including sponsors, donors, client-groups, administrators, staff, and other relevant constituencies. Most often, feedback is perceived as "useful" if it aids in decision-making. But the relationship between an evaluation and its impact is not a simple one -- studies that seem critical sometimes fail to influence short-term decisions, and studies that initially seem to have no influence can have a delayed impact when more congenial conditions arise. Despite this, there is broad consensus that the major goal of evaluation should be to influence decision-making or policy formulation through the provision of empirically-driven feedback.


- Techniques

• Experiments

• Surveys

• Many other types Potential problems in evaluation research

• Unrealistic expectations

• Potential pressure of vested interests

• Want to maintain objectivity during the research.

B) Selected Research Design and Methods

Research conducted is an applied in form with an evaluation purpose. It uses quantitative methods to give precise and testable expression to qualitative ideas. This combination of quantitative and qualitative methods is often referred to as mixed-methods research. The research uses primary survey as research design with data collected at one point in time from a stratified sample selected to represent a larger population. Descriptive analysis is used to produce a situation analysis. Descriptive statistics are used throughout data analysis in a number of different ways. We selected Evaluation research in order to provide objective assessments of past and present of the NTF project effects. In this research we used several research techniques like: survey, Interview, observation and secondary data analysis. We studied on what occurred over point in time - one time snapshot of what is occurring. Research used qualitative or quantitative methods to explain or interpret a current event, condition, or situation. In some cases, qualitative and quantitative research methods are combined or blended. Advantages of combining both types of research include:

• Research development (one approach is used to inform the other, such as using qualitative research to develop an instrument to be used in quantitative research)

• Increased validity (confirmation of results by means of different data sources)

• Complementarity (adding information, i.e. words to numbers and vice versa)

C). Data Collection

Data collection is an essential component to conducting research. Data collection is a complicated and hard task. By and large it is also very difficult to say which the best method of data collection is. O’Leary remarks: “Collecting credible data is a tough task, and it is worth remembering that one method of data collection is not inherently better than another22.” Therefore, which data collection method to use would depend upon the research goals and the advantages and disadvantages of each method. This research was conducted using multiple methods for information gathering:

1) Sample survey of 187 direct interviews of 10% of all active clients at the begging of third year was created


2) Individual interviews

3) IOM-NTF Database

4) Observation

5) Review of project related documents Findings were triangulated (confirmation by three separate sources) to augment the confidence level of data.

Types of Interview

Surveys can be divided into two broad categories: the questionnaire and the interview. As we chosen interviews as our main technique of data gathering we had to make selection from four types of interview designs — structured interviews, semi-structured interviews, unstructured interviews and non-directive interviews.

• Structured Interviews A structured interview is sometimes called a standardized interview. The same questions are asked of all respondents. Corbetta states structured interviews are “… interviews in which all respondents are asked the same questions with the same wording and in the same sequence.” 23 It would be ideal if questions can be read out in the same tone of voice so that the respondents would not be influenced by the tone of the interviewer24. The strengths of structured interviews are that the researcher has control over the topics and the format of the interview. Consequently, there is a common format, which makes it easier to analyze code and compare data.

• Semi-structured Interviews On the other hand, semi-structured interviews are non-standardized and are frequently used in qualitative analysis. The interviewer does not do the research to test a specific hypothesis25. The researcher has a list of key themes, issues, and questions to be covered. In this type of interview the order of the questions can be changed depending on the direction of the interview. An interview guide is also used, but additional questions can be asked. Corbetta explains semi-structured interviews as follows: “The order in which the various topics are dealt with and the wording of the questions are left to the interviewer’s discretion. Within each topic, the interviewer is free to conduct the conversation as he thinks fit, to ask the questions he deems appropriate in the words he considers best, to give explanation and ask for clarification if the answer is not clear, to prompt the respondent to elucidate further if necessary, and to establish his own style of conversation26”.

• Unstructured Interviews

This type of interview is non-directed and is a flexible method. It is more casual than the aforementioned interviews


• Non-directive Interviews

The structured and semi-structured interviews are somewhat controlled by the researcher who has set the issues and questions. In non-directive interviews there are no preset topics to pursue. Questions are usually not pre-planned. The interviewer listens and does not take the lead. The interviewer follows what the interviewee has to say. The interviewee leads the conversation.

Interview type selected

A structured type of interviews was selected for the Sample survey (also known as a standardized interview or a researcher-administered survey) because it is a quantitative research method commonly employed in survey research. The aim of this approach is to ensure that each interviewee is presented with exactly the same questions in the same order. This ensures that answers can be reliably aggregated and that comparisons can be made with confidence between sample subgroups or between different survey periods. Structured interviews are a means of collecting data for a statistical survey. Like in this case, the data is collected by an interviewer rather than through a self-administered questionnaire. Interviewers read the questions exactly as they appear on the survey questionnaire. The choice of answers to the questions is often fixed (close-ended) in advance, though open-ended questions can also be included within a structured interview. A structured interview also standardizes the order in which questions are asked of survey respondents, so the questions are always answered within the same context. This is important for minimizing the impact of context effects, where the answers given to a survey question can depend on the nature of preceding questions. Though context effects can never be avoided, it is often desirable to hold them constant across all respondents. Advantages:

• Response rate is good

• Interviewers can help to explain things

• This can result in more information

• Comparable data

• Quantitative data

• Reduced interviewer bias

The data collection of our structured interview was carried out in the period from September 2008 to February 2009 through direct interviews with beneficiaries. All beneficiary interviews lasted for about 30 to 60 minutes. In the collecting process the assistance was given by the advisors from the field offices. Wherever possible the interviews with the clients were taking place at their business location. There were a total of 35 interviews taking place at the client location. Other interviews were located at the most suitable location for the selected beneficiaries mainly in the Regional Resettlement Centres offices. For the interviews with MoD staff and NTF colleagues an Individual informant interviews were conducted.


Sampling Plan

The structured interview was conducted on a statistically defined representative sample of all active beneficiaries at the beginning of the third year of the projects implementation. It includes all types of NTF assistance delivered to beneficiaries and it covers all major profiling categories of the project beneficiaries. The method used for creating the sample was based on the so called stratified approach. In stratified sampling, the total population is divided into separate groups (strata) which differ along selected characteristics such as gender, age, size of operation, or geographical location. A random sample is drawn from each subgroup or stratum. For the sample size a recommended sample size table was used see27. Through stratified sampling, the total population was divided into separate groups which defer along selected characteristics. This choice was most appropriate for the NTF project as the regional differences between the North and South as well as between the civilian and military beneficiaries is significant. According to the statistics related to the beneficiaries` profile already available from the NTF database the sample was created by random, computerized selection based on region, type of assistance received, male vs. female, age and status (military vs. civilian). In this process 187 surveys were actually conducted according to the beneficiary availability and willingness to participate, which represents 10% of all active clients at the beginning of the third year or the 90% confidence level. The margin of error was 10%, which provides for a solid reliability of the data gathered. Stratified sampling – full representation of each sub group:

• Region

• Type of assistance received

• Male vs. female

• Age

• Status (military vs. civilian) The statistics on the population selected was as stated in the following table:

Table 1 - Stratified sampling table Region: BG: 57% NI: 26% NS: 17% Type of assistance: Business Creation: 69% Financed course: 13% Salary Support: 18% Gender: Male: 96% Female: 4% Age: <30: 1% 30-39: 4% 40-49: 49% 50-59: 44% 60+: 2% Status: Military: 84% Civilian: 16%

Sample numbers:


Table 2 - Beneficiaries divided by region table Regions total number 10% sample

Belgrade 1060 106

Nis 490 49

Novi Sad 320 32

Total 1870 187

Table 3 - Beneficiaries divided by type of assistance table Type of assistance total number 10% sample

Business Creation 1290 129

Financed Course 240 24

Salary support 340 34

Total 1870 187

Table 4 - Beneficiaries divided by gender table Gender total number 10% sample

Male 1790 179

Female 80 8

Total 1870 187

Table 5 - Beneficiaries divided by age table Age total number 10% sample

< 30 10 1

30-39 80 8

40-49 920 92

50-59 820 82

60+ 40 4

Total 1870 187

Table 6 - Beneficiaries divided by status table Status total number 10% sample

Military 1570 157

Civilian 300 30

Total 1870 187

We have made an analysis of data collected and checked the content of individual responses in order to highlight any abnormal data, inconsistencies and missing values. For this purpose we carried out some analysis in order to identify and correct any ex-post abnormal value found in the responses obtained. All the frequency distributions of responses given by respondents were examined. Any abnormal value was corrected whenever possible by contacting the involved beneficiaries, or cancelled. These operations provide overall high reliability of data collected. The interviews constituted of 30 questions covering assessment criteria and were related to:

� Social impact of the NTF assistance received � Economic impact of the assistance received � Perception of socio-economic impact on one self � Assessment of assistance quality


Individual Interviews

Key informant interview among IOM and MoD staff, both at headquarters and in the field in each RRC were undertaken.

Documentary Review of Project Related Information

Main data on documentary review are external evaluation and monitoring reports. The Monitoring report data are generated trough IOM/NTF Monitoring system that is connected to the database. All data from the received monitoring questionnaires are entered into the database by the responsible RRC. When information in the questionnaires is not complete the field offices are contacting each beneficiary individually to follow up on their NTF activity. On that occasion the monitoring questionnaire is filled in and accordingly recorded into the database. Through the monitoring the client advisors have the full insight into the state of affairs of their beneficiaries and are able to react to the issues reported by the beneficiaries. They maintain the link with the client and increase the beneficiaries` commitment to the project. The information from the regular monitoring activities is used for reporting purposes as well as project implementation. The main NTF office is combining all monitoring feedback through the joint database from all three RRCs. That information is then analyzed and used for regular monitoring reports that are scheduled every four months starting from October 2008. These reports are then shared with the relevant stakeholders to provide for both quantitative and qualitative information about the success in reaching the strategic objectives of the project.

Database Overview

IOM-NTF Database is used by three field offices (Belgrade, Niš and Novi Sad) as part of IOM-NTF Project document management system. It stores beneficiary registration information, applications, Joint Review Panel (JRP) decisions, monitoring data, beneficiary satisfaction surveys, and various attached documents (contracts, handover documents, business plans, cash-flow projections, etc.). Data collected in the field offices are replicated to central database located in IOM Main Office on weekly basis. The database is used both as operational database – supporting daily operations and as reporting database for data mining, performance tracking, statistical and other types of reporting:

Users Purpose

Client advisors in field offices

Data entry – Registrations, Applications, Printing of forms, contracts, handover documents...

Small business advisors Applications reviews, JRP decision entry, Monitoring

Finance & Logistics Payments tracking, Tax exemptions

Public relations Statistical data for Fact sheets, Press releases ...

Project management Performance tracking, Statistical data and Satisfaction surveys analysis

The database is designed on Microsoft SQL Server 2005, with client applications developed for Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0 using VB.NET and C#.


Observation

Observation is a data collection method that is used in Qualitative research. It is the selection and recording of behaviours of people in their environment. Observation is useful for generating in-depth descriptions of organizations or events, for obtaining information that is otherwise inaccessible, and for conducting research when other methods are inadequate. Observation is used extensively in studies by psychologists, anthropologists, sociologists, and program evaluators. In this research we used a form of direct observation. This is because direct observation reduces distortion between the observer and what is observed that can be produced by an instrument (e.g., questionnaire). It occurs in a natural setting, not a laboratory or controlled experiment. The context or background of behaviour is included in observations of both people and their environment. The observations were collected trough:

• Random visits to the Beneficiaries for the project preparation and monitoring purposes

• Observing the procedures and operations of the businesses the beneficiaries already developed or they are trying to develop

• Records of stories of people, circumstances, decisions and events Observations were recorded in the form of the field notes. The usage of the field notes means that observations were recorded in a narrative, descriptive style as something import was notice or heard.

Evaluation Criteria

Evaluation will focus on the following criteria/issues: a) Efficiency: Evaluate the process and implementation of the Program by looking at Program outputs and beneficiaries satisfaction with the Program. b) Effectiveness: Evaluating Social impact and Economic effects of the project

• Social Impact: Assessing on how effectively the different actions contribute to achieving the program objective – reintegration of Military personal in civilian life.

• Economic Effects: Measure the economic impact of a project by Indicating the: impact on the financial independence on the assisted beneficiaries, number of new business registered, number of new jobs created; and how the project benefited the state revenues.

Despite the absence of advanced econometric analytical tools, in this research we tried to report NTF project accomplishments and outcomes through the use of spreadsheets, graphs and charts.


■■■ Appendix 2 Sample Size Selection Chart


SAMPLE SIZE SELECTION CHART

Recommended sample sizes for two different precision levels

Source: Isaac and Michael, 1981; Smith, MF, 1983

Sample

Size

Sample Size

Population size +5% 10% Population size 5% 10%

10 10 275 163 74

15 14 300 172 76

20 19 325 180 77

25 24 350 187 78

30 28 375 194 80

35 32 400 201 81

40 36 425 207 82

45 40 450 212 82

50 44 475 218 83

55 48 500 222 83

60 52 1000 286 91

65 56 2000 333 95

70 59 3000 353 97

75 63 4000 364 98

80 66 5000 370 98

85 70 6000 375 98

90 73 7000 378 99

95 76 8000 381 99

100 81 51 9000 383 99

125 96 56 10000 385 99

150 110 61 15000 390 99

175 122 64 20000 392 100

200 134 67 25000 394 100

225 144 70 50000 397 100

250 154 72 100000 398 100


■■■ Appendix 3 Questionnaire and Interview Results


Type of assistance Number of answers %

Financing courses 34 18,2%

Salary support 21 11,2%

Business start up 132 70,6%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Reintegration Centres Number of answers %

Belgrade 92 49,2%

Nis 70 37,4%

Novi Sad 25 13,4%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Area Number of answers %

Rural 55 29,4%

Urban 132 70,6%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

What challenges are you expecting in the future in your social setting?

Number of answers %

Challenges of transition 107 57,2%

Migrations rural-urban 22 11,8%

No challenges 58 31,0%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Did your social life improved after receiving NTF assistance?

Number of answers %

Yes 137 73,0%

No 50 27,0%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Did your family life improved after receiving NTF assistance

Number of answers %

Yes 140 74,6%

No 47 25,4%

TOTAL 187 100,0%


What is your perception of social life next year? Number of answers %

Better 134 71,4%

Worse 1 0,8%

Same 52 27,8%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Did you invested in life space improvement last year?

Number of answers %

Yes 99 52,9%

No 88 47,1%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Do you have intention to invest in life space improvement next year?

Number of answers %

Yes 165 88,2%

No 22 11,8%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Do you have intention to live in the same home next year?

Number of answers %

Yes 168 89,8%

No 19 10,2%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Do you have higher income now then in the army? Number of answers %

Yes 102 54,8%

No 85 45,2%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How you camper your income level compared to the surroundings?

Number of answers %

Same 73 39,0%

Lower 35 18,9%

Higher 79 42,1%

TOTAL 187 100,0%


How you camper your income level compared to your colleagues redundant military personal?

Number of answers %

Same 71 38,0%

Lower 22 11,8%

Higher 94 50,3%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

What is your evaluation of the economic situation of your family in the future period?

Number of answers %

Better 132 70,6%

Worst 12 6,4%

Same 43 23,0%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Do now more of your family members generate income?

Number of answers %

Yes 96 51,3%

No 91 48,7%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Will you continue with this activity in the future period?

Number of answers %

Yes 175 93,7%

No 12 6,3%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

What other type of assistance would you desire for improving your current activity?

Number of answers %

Additional financial support for the extension of the current activity

30 16,0%

Additional financial support for starting a complementary activity

88 47,1%

Training 31 16,6%

Other 10 5,3%

Business development support 28 15,0%

TOTAL 187 100,0%


How would you evaluate your socio-economic status compare to the active military members?

Number of answers %

Better 74 39,7%

Worst 67 35,8%

Same 46 24,5%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How would you evaluate your socio-economic status compare to the civilians?

Number of answers %

Better 89 47,6%

Worst 30 16,0%

Same 68 36,4%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How would you evaluate your socio-economic status compare to your discharged colleagues?

Number of answers %

Better 103 55,1%

Worst 10 5,3%

Same 74 39,6%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How would you compare your situation now with two years ago?

Number of answers %

Better 117 62,6%

Worst 30 16,0%

Same 40 21,4%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Did required adjustment to civilian life after being discharged?

Number of answers %

Yes 70 37,3%

No 117 62,7%

TOTAL 187 100,0%


Did you manage to adjust? Number of answers %

Yes 181 96,8%

no 6 3,2%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How do you think your neighbours perceive you? Number of answers %

Discharged 120 64,2%

Civilian 43 23,0%

Military 24 12,8%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How would you like to be perceived? Number of answers %

Discharged 88 46,8%

Civilian 86 46,0%

Military 13 7,1%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Did you use PRISMA/NTF counselling services? Number of answers %

Yes 153 81,7%

No 34 18,3%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How would you evaluate PRISMA/NTF counselling? Number of answers %

No evaluation 31 16,7%

Positive 156 83,3%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How would you evaluate assistance received by NTF?

Number of answers %

No evaluation 4 2,4%

Positive 183 97,6%

TOTAL 187 100,0%


Time was needed for the distribution of the NTF assistance?

Number of answers %

Two months 39 20,9%

One month 117 62,6%

More then two months 31 16,6%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

How would you rank the success of your project? Number of answers %

Good 75 40.1%

As expected 81 43.3%

Above expected 9 4,8%

Poor 22 11.8%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

Main obstacles that you faced? Number of answers %

Financing amounts 68 36,4%

Lack of experience 25 13,4%

No obstacles 49 26,2%

Market forces 28 15,0%

Environmental issues 15 8,0%

Health problems 2 1,1%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

To which extent NTF assistance contributed to implementation of both your private and professional goals?

Number of answers %

Partially 88 47,1%

Not significant 10 5,3%

Very much 89 47,6%

TOTAL 187 100,0%

What is the most important effect of NTF assistance?

Number of answers %

Economic self-sufficiency 52 27,8%

Social networking 53 28,6%

Overall socio-economic effects 82 43,7%

TOTAL 187 100,0%


■■■ Appendix 4. MONTHLY STATISTICAL REVIEW 3/2009

STATISTICAL OFFICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA






NATO Partnership for PeaceTrust Fund - Evaluation on the economic, security and social impact of the project

Documents

implemented project

ntf project

project description

peace trust fund project

serbia program management

republic of serbia evaluation

peace trust fund nft

abstractthe republic