National Crime Prevention Council 2005 Crime Prevention Trends 2005.

National Crime Prevention Council 2005National Crime Prevention Council 2005

Crime Prevention Trends Crime Prevention Trends 20052005

22National Crime Prevention Council 2005National Crime Prevention Council 2005

ObjectivesObjectives

Current trends in crime and prevention Current trends in crime and prevention Five major, emerging trends and challenges Five major, emerging trends and challenges

over the next 20 years over the next 20 years How to meet these challengesHow to meet these challenges Crime prevention as a strong foundationCrime prevention as a strong foundation Going forwardGoing forward


Understanding Crime Trends Understanding Crime Trends Helps Us…Helps Us…

Anticipate prevention needs in new contextsAnticipate prevention needs in new contexts Learn from the past about how to implement Learn from the past about how to implement

prevention strategies for the futureprevention strategies for the future Reap the benefits of crime prevention Reap the benefits of crime prevention Serve as effective advocates for crime Serve as effective advocates for crime

prevention prevention


Where Are We Now? Where Are We Now?

The “nontraditional” community has become The “nontraditional” community has become the norm, with people operating in numerous the norm, with people operating in numerous communities that overlap only slightly.communities that overlap only slightly.

WorkWork HomeHome Extended familyExtended family ShoppingShopping RecreationRecreation FaithFaith ProfessionalProfessional Special interests (hobbies, civicSpecial interests (hobbies, civic, , fraternal, etc.)fraternal, etc.)


Crime Trends andCrime Trends andHow We Count CrimeHow We Count Crime

Currently…Currently… National Crime Victimization SurveyNational Crime Victimization Survey by the by the

Bureau of Justice Statistics includes what Bureau of Justice Statistics includes what happened, victims, and circumstances, but is happened, victims, and circumstances, but is not useful at state or local level.not useful at state or local level.

FBI Uniform Crime ReportsFBI Uniform Crime Reports tell only what has tell only what has been reported to the system. It provides no been reported to the system. It provides no details about the victim or circumstances.details about the victim or circumstances.


Crime Trends andCrime Trends andHow We Count Crime (cont.)How We Count Crime (cont.)

Emerging systemsEmerging systems FBI National Incident-Based Reporting FBI National Incident-Based Reporting

System provides key information about the System provides key information about the victim and circumstances in reported crime.victim and circumstances in reported crime.Local Crime Victimization SurveysLocal Crime Victimization Surveys are now are now possible through use of off-the-shelf software possible through use of off-the-shelf software from the National Institute of Justice and the from the National Institute of Justice and the Bureau of Justice Statistics.Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Results: better localized state and national Results: better localized state and national datadata


Current Crime TrendsCurrent Crime Trends

In 2003, U.S. residents (12 years and older) In 2003, U.S. residents (12 years and older) experienced 24.2 million violent and property experienced 24.2 million violent and property crimes. There were 18.6 million property crimes. There were 18.6 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft). There were 5.4 million violent crimes theft). There were 5.4 million violent crimes (rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, (rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and homicide).and homicide).


Current Crime Trends (cont.)Current Crime Trends (cont.)

■■ Personal and household victimizations are at Personal and household victimizations are at 30-year lows, according to 2003 data. 30-year lows, according to 2003 data.

Source - BJS - National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization, 2003)Source - BJS - National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization, 2003)



Almost 60 percent of crimes are reported to Almost 60 percent of crimes are reported to police, a substantial increase from the 35 police, a substantial increase from the 35 percent to 40 percent of crimes reported in the percent to 40 percent of crimes reported in the 1970s. 1970s. Source – BJS, National Crime Victimization Survey (Source – BJS, National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization 1973-75Criminal Victimization 1973-75, , Criminal Victimization, 2003Criminal Victimization, 2003))




Current Crime Prevention Current Crime Prevention IssuesIssues

Methamphetamine, identity theft, fraud against Methamphetamine, identity theft, fraud against seniors, gangs, and homeland security are seniors, gangs, and homeland security are among the hot issues.among the hot issues.

There is a general view that serious crime is There is a general view that serious crime is isolated in communities.isolated in communities.

Computers as personal and economic crime Computers as personal and economic crime tools are a well-established fact. tools are a well-established fact.


Current Crime Prevention Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)Issues (cont.)

Emphasis on fact-based, research-based Emphasis on fact-based, research-based programming is emerging.programming is emerging.

Pressure to demonstrate program outcomes – Pressure to demonstrate program outcomes – not how much was done but what has changed not how much was done but what has changed because of it – is beginning to emerge.because of it – is beginning to emerge.


Current Crime Prevention Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.)Issues (cont.)

Federal and state financial cuts are reducing Federal and state financial cuts are reducing prevention (and other) funding.prevention (and other) funding.

New tools (crime mapping, crime analysis, New tools (crime mapping, crime analysis, email, web, etc.) have become available, email, web, etc.) have become available,

though they are underused.though they are underused.


What Is the Outlook for the What Is the Outlook for the Future?Future?

Five major predictionsFive major predictions– The United States is significantly more diverse.The United States is significantly more diverse.– Communications technology is evolving Communications technology is evolving

dramatically.dramatically.– Data technology is expanding dramatically. Data technology is expanding dramatically. – People live longer, are more active longer.People live longer, are more active longer.– The need to educate each new wave of children, The need to educate each new wave of children,

adolescents, and adults continues.adolescents, and adults continues.


U.S. Demographics and DiversityU.S. Demographics and DiversityPredictionsPredictions

The United States is becoming more diverse – The United States is becoming more diverse – racially, linguistically, culturally, ethnically. racially, linguistically, culturally, ethnically.

Estimates are that by 2050, people of color Estimates are that by 2050, people of color (predominantly African Americans and (predominantly African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos) will be close to the Hispanics/Latinos) will be close to the majority.majority.


Projected Population of the United States, by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000

to 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

% of TOTALTOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0White alone 81.0 79.3 77.6 75.8 73.9 72.1Black alone 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6Asian Alone 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.2 7.1 8.0All other races *2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.3Hispanic 12.6 15.5 17.8 20.1 22.3 24.4(of any race) White alone 69.4 65.1 61.3 57.5 53.7 50.1(not Hispanic)

* Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More Races

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,“ <www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/>


U.S. Demographics and U.S. Demographics and Diversity ChallengesDiversity Challenges

We will have more diverse languages, We will have more diverse languages, cultures, norms, issues of personal and group cultures, norms, issues of personal and group behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and activity.activity.

Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in place may conflict with the customs and place may conflict with the customs and experiences of diverse populations. experiences of diverse populations.

One size will not fit all in crime prevention.One size will not fit all in crime prevention.


U.S. Demographics and Diversity U.S. Demographics and Diversity RecommendationsRecommendations

Develop ways to explain legal and Develop ways to explain legal and enforcement systems so they can be enforcement systems so they can be understood by diverse populations.understood by diverse populations.

Develop crime prevention strategies to reach Develop crime prevention strategies to reach radically different populations and their radically different populations and their perspectives. perspectives.

Find and build bridges between law Find and build bridges between law enforcement and these cultures. enforcement and these cultures.


Communications Technology Communications Technology PredictionsPredictions

Communications capabilities are growing Communications capabilities are growing exponentially. exponentially.

The youth of today are used to being The youth of today are used to being connected routinely by picture as well as voice connected routinely by picture as well as voice with people living thousands of miles away. with people living thousands of miles away. This will increase. This will increase.

Technology will allow for faster Technology will allow for faster communication, closer and closer to “real communication, closer and closer to “real time” exchanges.time” exchanges.


Communications ChallengesCommunications Challenges

People may not be able to tell the true People may not be able to tell the true intentions of all those they communicate with. intentions of all those they communicate with.

Links between criminals across national Links between criminals across national borders will grow. Networks of criminals will borders will grow. Networks of criminals will become larger, less detectable, and harder to become larger, less detectable, and harder to stop. stop.


Communications Challenges Communications Challenges (cont.)(cont.)

Technology – whether used for productive or Technology – whether used for productive or destructive purposes – crosses national borders destructive purposes – crosses national borders while our law enforcement and legal systems while our law enforcement and legal systems are largely restricted by national borders.are largely restricted by national borders.


Communications Technology Communications Technology RecommendationsRecommendations

Develop strategies that help youth understand Develop strategies that help youth understand the risks and apply a healthy level of the risks and apply a healthy level of skepticism when instantaneously skepticism when instantaneously communicating. communicating.

Identify and teach youth, adults, and seniors Identify and teach youth, adults, and seniors preventive strategies against stalking, bullying, preventive strategies against stalking, bullying, and other predatory behaviors that are and other predatory behaviors that are increasingly found in the use of increasingly found in the use of communications technology.communications technology.


Data TechnologyData TechnologyPredictionsPredictions

More Information More Information – FinancialFinancial– Identification Identification – MedicalMedical– EmploymentEmployment

More links across information sources More links across information sources More economic resources electronically More economic resources electronically

accessibleaccessible


Data TechnologyData TechnologyPredictions (cont.)Predictions (cont.)

Less direct personal contact in business, Less direct personal contact in business, finance – more room for deceptionfinance – more room for deception

Technological race between criminals and law Technological race between criminals and law enforcementenforcement


Data Technology ChallengesData Technology Challenges

Innovations will expand faster than people can Innovations will expand faster than people can learn about and master the changes. learn about and master the changes.

Increased innovation creates room for criminal Increased innovation creates room for criminal creativity, thus changing and increasing the risk creativity, thus changing and increasing the risk of crime.of crime.

Generations will differ in their degree of Generations will differ in their degree of comfort with technological change and comfort with technological change and innovation. They will thus experience different innovation. They will thus experience different risks and need different prevention strategies. risks and need different prevention strategies.


Data Technology Data Technology Recommendations Recommendations

Tailor approaches based on the vulnerabilities Tailor approaches based on the vulnerabilities facing different groups – older, younger, more facing different groups – older, younger, more and less experienced, etc.and less experienced, etc.

Educate people on how to protect themselves Educate people on how to protect themselves using a combination of technology-based using a combination of technology-based safeguards and behavior. safeguards and behavior.

Encourage industry to help bridge technology Encourage industry to help bridge technology and behavior in prevention strategies – and behavior in prevention strategies – building prevention into the innovation.building prevention into the innovation.


Older PopulationsOlder PopulationsPredictionsPredictions

People will live longer.People will live longer. There will be a larger population of older There will be a larger population of older

people – the baby boomers. people – the baby boomers. People will be productive into older ages, People will be productive into older ages,

whether traveling or with “hobby jobs.”whether traveling or with “hobby jobs.” Wealth will be concentrated in older age Wealth will be concentrated in older age

groups. groups. Individual retirees, not employer pension Individual retirees, not employer pension

funds, will be responsible for managing funds, will be responsible for managing retirement assets. retirement assets.


Male and Female Population of Male and Female Population of 2050 Higher Concentrations of 2050 Higher Concentrations of

People 65+ People 65+


Older PopulationsOlder PopulationsChallengesChallenges

Older people are less likely to stay in touch Older people are less likely to stay in touch with innovations in technology.with innovations in technology.

Older people are more vulnerable to electronic Older people are more vulnerable to electronic crime. They control their own retirement crime. They control their own retirement assets, yet may be less technologically savvy.assets, yet may be less technologically savvy.

A larger group will benefit from crime A larger group will benefit from crime prevention strategies that take into account prevention strategies that take into account cognitive or physical impairments. cognitive or physical impairments.


Older Populations Older Populations RecommendationsRecommendations

Develop crime prevention strategies that make Develop crime prevention strategies that make effective links between older persons’ effective links between older persons’ experiences and prevention strategies experiences and prevention strategies necessary in new technology and necessary in new technology and communications settings. communications settings.

Develop behavior and hardware strategies that Develop behavior and hardware strategies that interlink to help reduce vulnerabilities in interlink to help reduce vulnerabilities in general, with special attention to the needs of general, with special attention to the needs of those with impairments. those with impairments.

Because travel and activity are likely to be part Because travel and activity are likely to be part of older people’s lifestyles, teach accordingly.of older people’s lifestyles, teach accordingly.


Generation Gaps in KnowledgeGeneration Gaps in KnowledgePredictionsPredictions

Crime prevention differs for children, youth, Crime prevention differs for children, youth, and adults.and adults.

People frequently don’t teach these skills to People frequently don’t teach these skills to their children or bring them to their new life their children or bring them to their new life situations. situations.

Each generation needs to be taught anew at Each generation needs to be taught anew at each stage. each stage.

Reteaching of crime prevention strategies is Reteaching of crime prevention strategies is necessary.necessary.


Generation Gaps in KnowledgeGeneration Gaps in KnowledgeChallengesChallenges

It is hard to predict precisely how future trends It is hard to predict precisely how future trends will affect crime prevention strategies for will affect crime prevention strategies for different life stages – but we can be sure that different life stages – but we can be sure that they will. they will.

It is not clear how often people need to be It is not clear how often people need to be reminded or reeducated about different reminded or reeducated about different prevention strategies. prevention strategies.


Generation Gaps in KnowledgeGeneration Gaps in KnowledgeRecommendationsRecommendations

We must persist in renewing crime prevention We must persist in renewing crime prevention education for each age group. education for each age group.

We need to assess new crime and crime We need to assess new crime and crime prevention trends as they apply to each age prevention trends as they apply to each age group. group.

We should create intergenerational crime We should create intergenerational crime prevention strategies that engage people in prevention strategies that engage people in teaching each other.teaching each other.


Crime Prevention ToolsCrime Prevention Toolsand Benefitsand Benefits

The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of America America –Power of Prevention–Power of Prevention, 2005, 2005–– are a are a solid guide as we develop and sustain new solid guide as we develop and sustain new crime prevention strategies while sustaining crime prevention strategies while sustaining the relevant existing ones. the relevant existing ones.


The 10 Principles of Crime The 10 Principles of Crime PreventionPrevention

Preventing crime is everyone's businessPreventing crime is everyone's business Preventing crime is more than securityPreventing crime is more than security Preventing crime is a responsibility of all Preventing crime is a responsibility of all

levels of government and agencies of levels of government and agencies of governmentgovernment

Preventing crime is linked with solving social Preventing crime is linked with solving social problemsproblems

Preventing crime is cost-effectivePreventing crime is cost-effective


10 Principles Continued…10 Principles Continued…

Preventing crimePreventing crime Requires a central role in law enforcementRequires a central role in law enforcement Requires an active cooperation and collaboration Requires an active cooperation and collaboration

by all elements of the communityby all elements of the community Requires educationRequires education Requires tailoring to local needs and conditionsRequires tailoring to local needs and conditions Requires continual testing and improvementRequires continual testing and improvement


Crime Prevention ImprovesCrime Prevention Improves

The Quality of Life for EveryThe Quality of Life for Every

CommunityCommunity


Building on ExperienceBuilding on Experience

A look at achievements of crime prevention A look at achievements of crime prevention will help us update crime prevention will help us update crime prevention strategies for the future. strategies for the future.

““We can chart our future clearly and wisely We can chart our future clearly and wisely only when we know the path only when we know the path which has led to the present.”which has led to the present.”

- Adlai Stevenson- Adlai Stevenson


The 1970s The 1970s

Crime prevention is seen by the public as the Crime prevention is seen by the public as the responsibility of police. responsibility of police.

The concept of citizen action to reduce crime The concept of citizen action to reduce crime emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance Administration-sponsored programs.Administration-sponsored programs.

Neighborhood Watch is born.Neighborhood Watch is born.


The 1980sThe 1980s

Major DevelopmentsMajor Developments– Crime Prevention Coalition of AmericaCrime Prevention Coalition of America

– McGruff the Crime Dog®McGruff the Crime Dog®

– National Citizens’ Crime Prevention CampaignNational Citizens’ Crime Prevention Campaign

The role of youth in crime prevention is The role of youth in crime prevention is recognized and engaged.recognized and engaged.

Comprehensive action-focused community Comprehensive action-focused community planning emerges.planning emerges.


The 1990sThe 1990s

Crime Prevention Coalition of America Crime Prevention Coalition of America publishes 11 Principles of Crime Prevention.publishes 11 Principles of Crime Prevention.

Violence prevention programs proliferate in Violence prevention programs proliferate in response to a rise in youth crime.response to a rise in youth crime.

The costs of crime are more thoroughly The costs of crime are more thoroughly documented.documented.


The 1990sThe 1990s (cont.)(cont.)

Comprehensive fact-based prevention Comprehensive fact-based prevention approaches gain momentum.approaches gain momentum.

School safety becomes a major issue.School safety becomes a major issue.


Today, Our Base is StrongToday, Our Base is Strong

Communities are safer than in the 1970s.Communities are safer than in the 1970s. People see themselves as having a role in People see themselves as having a role in

making their communities safer.making their communities safer. Crime prevention has a wider foundation than Crime prevention has a wider foundation than

just law enforcement.just law enforcement. The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruff continue The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruff continue

to provide focus and resources.to provide focus and resources.


Opportunities for Crime Opportunities for Crime PreventionPrevention

Make new communication technology Make new communication technology effective in teaching crime prevention. effective in teaching crime prevention.

Build worldwide links to strengthen Build worldwide links to strengthen prevention. prevention.

Incorporate prevention in new technologies.Incorporate prevention in new technologies. Enlist new generation in crime prevention. Enlist new generation in crime prevention. Strengthen and institutionalize crime Strengthen and institutionalize crime

prevention.prevention.


The Future Just ChangedThe Future Just Changed

We can predict but not promise.We can predict but not promise. Prediction helps us think about the future, Prediction helps us think about the future,

which helps us prepare for change.which helps us prepare for change. The best advice is to stay alert, stay up-to-date, The best advice is to stay alert, stay up-to-date,

stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe!stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe!


National Crime Prevention National Crime Prevention CouncilCouncil

1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW

Thirteenth FloorThirteenth Floor

Washington, DC 20036Washington, DC 20036

202-466-6272202-466-6272

www.ncpc.orgwww.ncpc.org

National Crime Prevention Council 2005 Crime Prevention Trends 2005.

Documents

crime prevention trends

crime prevention slide

reported crime

challenges crime prevention

benefits of crime prevention

serious crime

current crime trends

understanding crime