Modeling Sea Level Rise in the Hudson River Estuary

8/11/2019 Modeling Sea Level Rise in the Hudson River Estuary

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Goals for EffortGoals for Effort Allow public to see river stages over time that resultAllow public to see river stages over time that result

from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, seafrom different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sea Allow public to see river stages over time that resultAllow public to see river stages over time that result

from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, seafrom different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sealevel rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,and the relative contribution of each.and the relative contribution of each.

Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofProvide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withdifferent climatedifferent climate--change scenarios.change scenarios.

level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,and the relative contribution of each.and the relative contribution of each.

Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofProvide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withdifferent climatedifferent climate--change scenarios.change scenarios.

Allow investigation of value of improved data related toAllow investigation of value of improved data related tobathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channelbathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel

characteristics and tributary flows.characteristics and tributary flows.

Allow investigation of value of improved data related toAllow investigation of value of improved data related tobathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channelbathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel

characteristics and tributary flows.characteristics and tributary flows.

HudsonRiver

HudsonRiver

http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif

NWS Forecasts for AlbanyNWS Forecasts for Albany

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=aly&gage=albn6&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0

HistoricalStage and

Flow

HistoricalStage and

Flow

What would theseWhat would theselook like under

different climatechange scenarios?

look like under

different climatechange scenarios?


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Illustrative Model OutputIllustrative Model Output

Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 01 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 01 hr

Water Profile - Base Case, t = 02 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 02 hr



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Illustrative Model OutputIllustrative Model Output





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Water Profile - QuestionWater Profile - Question

How can a 5 foot t ideHow can a 5 foot t ide

at the Battery t ravel 150 miles

to Albany and still be

be a 5 foot tide, 6 hrs later,

at the Battery t ravel 150 miles

to Albany and still be

be a 5 foot tide, 6 hrs later,

to resistance?

to resistance?

HudsonRiver

HudsonRiver

Troy 600 ft 6 ft

N. Albany 900 ft 17 ft

S. Albany 1100 ft30 ft

PK 2,400 ft 50 ft

Battery 4,500 ft 35 ft

http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif

Water Prof ile - Max/MinWater Prof ile - Max/Min

Max&MinWaterSurface

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5

5

15

25

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000

35

25

Distance fromBattery,

lowestchannelelevationmaximumelevation minimumelevat

Profile - Max/Min High/Low FlowsProfile - Max/Min High/Low Flows

25

15

5

5

15

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000

35

25

DistancefromBattery,NY(f

lowflowmax lowflowmin highflowmax highflowmin channelbottomelevation


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Profile Upper Estuary -Max/Min High/Low FlowsProfile Upper Estuary -

Max/Min High/Low Flows

25

15

5

5

15

6 00 00 0 6 20 00 0 6 40 00 0 6 60 00 0 6 80 00 0 7 00 00 0 7 20 00 0 7 40 00 0 7 60 00 0 7 80 00 0 8 00 00 0

35

25

DistancefromBattery,N

lowflowmax lowflowmin highflowmax highflowm in c ha nn elbottomelevati

Castleton-on-Hudson

Flows only affect estuary stage above Castleton-on-Hudson.

Profile - Max/Min for SLR 0-2-4 ftProfile - Max/Min for SLR 0-2-4 ft

TidalSwingRange(maxminwatersurfaceelevatio

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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

D stancefromBattery,NY m l

channelbottom 0ftsealevelrisetidalswingran

2ftsealevelrisetidalswingr ange 4ftsealevelrisetidalswing

Tides have 12 hour period - amplitude varies over estuary.

Profile - Max/Min - Storm SurgeProfile - Max/Min - Storm Surge

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25

25

15

5

5

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

35

DistancefromBattery,

stormsurgem ax st or msurgem in c ha nn elbottomeleva

Storm surge is a long wave lasting 1-2 days - no variation.

Key FindingsKey Findings1. What information does one team need from another to complete

their work: NONE1. What information does one team need from another to complete

their work: NONE

2. What assumptions do we need to make explicit and to make surewe are in agreement as to those judgments/choices: Using currentgeometry of river as fixed, with same channel independent of SLR.

3. Remaining work to do: Model mostly running. Defining scenarios.Need to develop form of presentation vehicle, and see if it works forpublic.

4. What will your final product include in terms of content: Expect final

2. What assumptions do we need to make explicit and to make surewe are in agreement as to those judgments/choices: Using currentgeometry of river as fixed, with same channel independent of SLR.

3. Remaining work to do: Model mostly running. Defining scenarios.Need to develop form of presentation vehicle, and see if it works forpublic.

4. What will your final product include in terms of content: Expect finalproduct by end of the year. Web based tutorial showing how keyfactors (tides, flows, SLR) interact to determine Estuary stages.

5. Interactions needed in next 6 months to link work across projects:Look for feed back of effectiveness of presentation.

product by end of the year. Web based tutorial showing how keyfactors (tides, flows, SLR) interact to determine Estuary stages.

5. Interactions needed in next 6 months to link work across projects:Look for feed back of effectiveness of presentation.

Modeling Sea Level Rise in the Hudson River Estuary

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