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Page 1 | © Catalyze 2015 Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR, Decision Analysis, Public Policy Design and Defence SIGs 16 th Oct 2015, Dstl Portsdown West
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Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Page 1: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

Page 1 | © Catalyze 2015

Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation

Peter Miles, Catalyze

The OR Society: Behavioural OR, Decision Analysis, Public Policy Design and Defence SIGs

16th Oct 2015, Dstl Portsdown West

Page 2: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

Page 3 | © Catalyze 2015

Catalyze is a strategy consultancy, helping clients to prioritise and make robust sustainable decisions

Founded in 2001 in association with the London School of Economics

Catalyze

Page 3: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

Page 4 | © Catalyze 2015

Decision Analysis Howard Raiffa, Robert Schlaifer

(Harvard); Ron Howard (Stanford) Established the principles and

mathematics of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)

1960s and 70s

Interactive Management John Warfield and Alexander

Christakis (George Mason) Developed consensus

methodologies, including Interpretive Structural Modelling

Enabling groups to tackle complex problems

1970s and 80s

Decision Conferencing Cameron Peterson; Larry Phillips

(LSE) Tackled the multi-stakeholder

sensemaking issue Using work from the Tavistock

Institute of Human Relations Incorporated MCDA into a socio-

technical process 1970s and 80s

The origins of the techniques we apply

Page 4: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Where do gaps appear?

Analysis → Application

Recommendation → Decision

Decision → Implementation

Policy → Delivery

Strategy → Operations

Project plan → Implementation

Requirements → Results

Software design → Software

What do they have in common?

Assumption of an interface A barrier (a gap, in other words…)

Different people on either side With individual objectives,

motivations & perspectives

Theory vs. reality Testing assumptions Discovery; unknowns

How are these gaps typically resolved? Prototyping Iteration Feedback - ‘Closing the loop’ User involvement (co-creation) Collaborative sense-making Cross-functional teaming ‘Meet the customer’

Minding the Gaps

Page 5: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Some personal theories…

We build them into our processes The gaps are instigated by us, in

the way we divide the work e.g. AQUA Book roles of

Commissioner & Analyst

Cognitive biases and weaknesses e.g. blindness to ‘unknown

unknowns’

We don’t like ambiguity Problems tend to get labelled as

lack of information, where often there is ambiguity or confusion

https://medium.com/@EskoKilpi/the-reason-why-we-need-to-talk-262c8740c225

Everyone has a different perspective But we tend to forget that

Our default way of thinking does not match our complex world

Why do these gaps arise?

Page 6: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Our default mindset (paradigm) is predominantly ‘linear’ Reductionist Newton and Descartes Presumption of being ‘in control’ Cause and effect distinct The world as a clock (mechanical)

But the world is predominantly ‘complex’ Interactions Feedback loops Emergent properties Coevolution The world as an ecosystem

Complexity

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Cynefin Framework

Coevolution

So what else coevolves?

The two sides of the Gap?

Complexity & Coevolution

Page 8: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Approaches, Methods, Opportunities

What do we know already? What have we already tried? What works, what doesn’t?

Where does further exploration look promising? Research opportunities?

“The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed” William Gibson

Page 9: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Stratified Systems Theory Elliot Jaques

The concept of differing perspectives through a hierarchy Levels of Work Cognitive complexity Time-span of control

Soft Systems Modelling Peter Checkland

Rich Pictures Simply as pictures...

Multiple Perspectives

BAE Systems, Paul Shorrock (illustrator)

Page 10: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Agile “characterized by the division of

tasks into short phases of work and frequent reassessment and adaptation of plans”

GitHub A platform for hosting and

collaborating on projects A repository with revision control

Software Development

http://www.business-software.com/blog/waterfall-vs-agile-development-differ-matters/

Page 11: Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and … · Mind the Gap - bridging the gap between analysis and implementation Peter Miles, Catalyze The OR Society: Behavioural OR,

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Software model as a repository of collective meaning

More effective than documents

Holds the ‘complexity’ of the system under development

Incrementally improving, adapting, learning

Acts as a translation tool between domains

Collaborative Modelling

Naval Command

Project Management

Naval Users

Cost Modellers

Operations Analysts

Platform Engineering

Options Engineering

MoD Scrutiny

Customer

Case Study: BAE Systems and MoD specify the Royal Navy’s next generation of warships

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Evidence Framework Approach (EFA) Paul Pearce et al, Dstl Cynefin Backcasting Team Sensemaking Assessment

Method (TSAM)

Cynefin as a categorisation framework for OA tools Simon French, Warwick

Collaborative Sensemaking

• Dstl EFA Wiki • Review of Proposed Approach for a Land Force Development Operational Analysis Evidence Framework, DSTL Ref: FTS4/RED/TA0001 • French, S. (2013a). “Cynefin, Statistics and Decision Analysis”, Journal of the Operational Research Society 64(4), p547-561

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Thank You

www.catalyzeconsulting.com

[email protected]