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Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan- [email protected]
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Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment [email protected].

Dec 17, 2015

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Page 1: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

Military applications of ocean models

Jan Kristian JensenNorwegian Defence Research

Establishment

[email protected]

Page 2: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Forsvarets Forskningsinstitutt (FFI)

Ongoing projects on military meteorological & oceanographic services− Previous projects: Metoc (2002-2006), METOC II (2006-2011)

− Current project: GEOMETOC (2011-2015) − Main focus: Operational infrastructure, products and services

for meteorological and oceanographic data− In close cooperation with met.no and the Norwegian Defence,

the Navy in particular

Page 3: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

The Royal Norwegian Navy: Heavy demand for operational services

METOC = Meteorology and Oceanography

Dedicated METOC department at naval base of Håkonsvern, Bergen– Education and training – Formulating user demands for services– Close and informal cooperation with met.no and FFI – Led by Lt. Commander Jon Tore Johnsen

Page 4: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

Some crucial, but often overlooked aspects

The Navy is not interested in oceanography per se – but:How does conditions affect the planning and execution of

naval operations? Important distinction!

Infrastructure plays a vital role Information not on some web site somewhere – but at my fingertips

Met.no is an important partner for building today’s and tomorrows military (and civilian) infrastructure for METOC services– Norge Digitalt and EU’s INSPIRE directive for

information services– Automatic data transfer from met.no to classified

military networks– Re-using existing internet services when

implementing services at classified military network

Page 5: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

what products should the ocean modellers provide to the navy?

• Current

• Sound speed

• Density

• Value-added services

Page 6: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

Current speed & direction from ocean models

• It doesn’t need to be accurate in every detail – but it must be good enough to be of value in planning and execution of operations

• Very high resolution modelling is needed to replicate conditions in Norway’s complicated coastal topography

• Is this beyond the capabilities of today’s state of the art ocean modelling?

• Use in value added products (see later slide)

Page 7: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

Sound speed

Sound speed important in submarine & anti-submarine operations

Vertical position of the strongest sound speed gradients is of particular interest

– Errors in ∂/∂z are very significant– Absolute errors are not important

as long as the gradients are replicated

– The thermocline and halocline must be adequately represented

– Variability due to mesoscala dynamics must be replicated

Calculated sonar performance (transmission loss) for a given set of sonar configurations and oceanographic conditions

Page 8: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

Density

Density important in submarine operations – though not as crucial as sound speed gradient

Requirements similar to sound speed: Absolute errors aren’t that crucial, but location and strength of gradients are important.

Ula-class submarine

Page 9: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

Value added servicesLeeway drift model

Probabilistic drift calculations of objects (persons, vessels, mines, containers) or substances (oil)

A large number of particles (N=500) are injected with start points that are pertubated in space&time relative to last known location.

NEW: Also backtracking capability You find something, where does it come from?

Currents, wind and waves are crucial input to this service

LEEWAY drift model GUI at kilden.met.no

Page 10: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

LEEWAY model part of search and rescue module implemented in Teleplan Maria map system

(Maritime command and control system)

Page 11: Military applications of ocean models Jan Kristian Jensen Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Jan-Kristian.Jensen@ffi.no.

what products should the ocean modellers provide to the navy?

• Current – is state of the art modelling good enough to provide services of value??

• Sound speed

• Density

• Value-added services – like the LEEWAY model and the search and rescue module.

Focus on vertical gradients