Migration: Insights from the Labour Force Survey Gareth Clancy Labour Market Analysis Household Labour Market and Social Wellbeing Gareth.Clancy@ons.gsi.gov.uk.

Migration: Insights from the Labour Force Survey

Gareth ClancyLabour Market AnalysisHousehold Labour Market and Social Wellbeing

Gareth.Clancy@ons.gsi.gov.uk

15th December 2009

Content

• LFS in Relation to Other Sources

• Overview of Foreign PopulationDefining the migrant population in the LFSDemographicsReasons for coming to the UK

• Foreign Workers in the Labour Market Male and Female ParticipationIndustry and OccupationEarnings

• Foreign Workers in the Recession

• Published Analysis

LFS in relation to other sources

• Registrations – WRS, NINo’s

• Flows - IPS, LTIM

• Stocks – LFS, APS

Commentary on the differences between the IPS/LTIM and LFS/APS can be found atwww.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/International_migration_data_differences.pdf

Overview of Foreign PopulationDefining the migrant population in the LFS

Population (Male 16-64, Female 16-59): by parents country of birth, April to June 2008, not seasonally adjusted

Both UK Born parents (79%)

Both Foreign born parents (15%)

Only one Foreign born parent (6%)

Source: Labour Force Survey

Overview of Foreign PopulationDefining the migrant population in the LFS

Non UK born People by Parents country of birth, April to June 2008, not seasonally adjusted

UK Nationals - Both UK born parents (6 %)

UK Nationals No answer (6.9%)

Non UK Nationals (61.9%)

UK nationals Both Foreign Born Parents (21.9%)

UK Nationals One UK born parent (3.3 %)

Source: Labour Force Survey

Overview of Foreign Population Demographics

• In AJ 1999 there were 4.3 million Foreign born people resident in the UK. This increased to reach 6.9 million in AJ 2009.

• Despite the changes in origins of migrants in the past ten years the age structure is similar to that of AJ 1999.

• The majority of the foreign born population was female in AJ 1999 (53 per cent) and this was still the case in 2009 (52 per cent).

• In AJ 1999 75 per cent of the foreign born population were of working age. In AJ 2009 the equivalent figure was 78 per cent.

• In both periods 60 per cent of the UK born population were of working age.

Age Profile by country of birth April to June 2009

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

0-4

5-9

10-15

16-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70+

Ag

e G

rou

p

Per Cent

UK Non UK

Age Profile by Country of Birth April to June 1999

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

0-4

5-9

10-15

16-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70+

Ag

e G

rou

p

Per Cent

UK Non UK

Overview of Foreign Population Demographics

Thousands, not seasonally adjustedApril to June each year

1999 2009

By Country of BirthIndia 313 India 479Pakistan 206 Poland 459Bangladesh 157 Pakistan 354Germany 154 Germany 230Kenya 124 Ireland 212

By nationalityIreland 282 Poland 446India 114 India 228United States 84 Ireland 206Pakistan 62 Pakistan 140France 61 France 109

Source: Labour Force Survey

Five Largest Population Groups Aged between 16-59(f)/64 (m) by Country of birth and Nationality

•Similarities between 1999 and 2009 by country of birth and nationality, e.g. India and Pakistan remain in Top 5.

•Impact of EU enlargement seen by number of Polish born of working age in 2009.

•The estimates of Ireland in past have required writing specific code to prevent results as shown in 1999. LFS now accounts for this in 2009.

A simple cross tab using one variable did not produce the most accurate estimates for Irish country of birth and nationality in the LFS.

Overview of Foreign PopulationReasons for Coming to the UK

Main reason for coming to the UK for foreign born people by country of birthApril to June 2008, not seasonally adjusted Per cent

EU141 EUA82 U.S.AAfrica ex

SASouth Africa

Australia & New Zealand India

Bangladesh & Pakistan Americas

Other Europe

Middle East & Asia Non-UK3

Employment 45 68 34 15 33 33 28 9 23 25 18 31Study 20 10 13 26 6 5 14 10 25 16 31 19International protection 0 1 0 13 2 0 1 3 1 16 17 6Accompanying family/family reunification 13 11 25 24 24 12 32 45 27 19 20 22Family formation 8 2 15 5 2 6 18 26 10 11 8 9Other 13 7 12 16 32 44 7 6 14 13 6 12

Source:Labour Force Survey

1 Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Spain (including the Canary Islands), Sweden. 2 Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia.3 Non-UK does not include those who did not state their country of birth.Note:This applies to all people who were of working age at time of last arrival in the United Kingdom

Overview of Foreign Workers in the Labour Market

Employment Levels (16+) by Country of Birth and Nationality

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Jan - Mar1997

Apr - Jun1998

Jul - Sep1999

Oct - Dec2000

Jan - Mar2002

Apr - Jun2003

Jul - Sep2004

Oct - Dec2005

Jan - Mar2007

Apr - Jun2008

Jul - Sep2009

Non UK By nationality

ThousandsDifference between two measures accounted for by non-UK born who have obtained UK nationality and children of UK nationals born abroad.

1999 2009

Country of Birth 8.0 14.2

Nationality 3.8 8.0

Source: Labour Force Survey1. Those aged 16 and over.

Non UK Levels as Per Cent of Total Employment, Apr to Jun each year, not seasonally adjusted

•Non-UK born as per cent of total employment is higher than non-UK nationality as per cent of employment.

•Non UK born levels were double non-UK nationality levels in 1999.

thousands1999 2009

Country of Birth 2,100 3,728

Nationality 1,021 2,310

Source: Labour Force Survey Source: Labour Force Survey1. Those aged 16 and over.

Non UK Levels Employment, Apr to Jun each year, not seasonally adjusted

Overview of Foreign Workers in the Labour Market

Proportion of foreign born people who came to the UK for employment, by country of birth, April to June 2008, not seasonally adjusted

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

EU14

EUA8

U.S.A

Africa ex SA

South Africa

Australia & New Zealand

India

Bangladesh & Pakistan

Americas

Middle East & Asia

Non-UK totalEmployment, intra-corporate transfer

Employment, job found before migrating

Employment, no job found beforemigrating

Per cent

Source: Labour Force Survey

Overview of Foreign Workers in the Labour MarketMale and Female Participation

•UK born has always had higher total employment rates compared to all Non-UK born workers.•However, there are large differences according to individual countries. E.g. EUA8 and Indian Sub-continent.

Working age Male and Female Employment Rate by Country of Birth April to June 2009, not seasonally adjusted

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Male Female Totals

UK Non UK SubTotalPer Cent

Overview of Foreign Workers in the Labour MarketIndustry

Per Cent of Employees in Sector by Country of Birth Apr-Jun 09

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Agriculture,forestry and

fishing

Energy andwater

Manufacturing Construction Distribution,hotels andrestaurants

Transport andcommunication

Banking andfinance

Public admin,education and

health

Other services

UK EUA8 Other non-UKPer Cent

•Almost a third of UK born employment is categorised as Public admin, education and health (note this includes the private sector as well)•There is a marked difference between A8 born workers and other foreign born workers. The A8 born have the highest per cent of their workforce in Manufacturing, Construction and Distribution, hotels and restaurants. Whereas, other foreign born workers are more similar to UK born workers.

Overview of Foreign Workers in the Labour MarketOccupation

•Employed people born in the EUA8 countries have different occupations to both UK born and ‘other non-UK born’ employed people.

•In Apr-Jun 09 – 34 per cent of EUA8 employment was in ‘elementary occupations’•In Apr-Jun 09 – 48 per cent of ‘other non-UK born’ were employed in Categories 1 to 3 compared to 44 per cent of UK born.

Per Cent of Employment by Occupation, Apr - Jun 09

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

UK EUA8 Other Non-UK

9 Elementary Occupations

8 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

7 Sales and Customer ServiceOccupations

6 Personal Service Occupations

5 Skilled Trades Occupations

4 Administrative and Secretarial

3 Associate Professional and Technical

2 Professional occupations

1 Managers and Senior Officials

Per Cent of Employment by Occupation, Apr - Jun 09

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

UK EUA8 Other Non-UK

9 Elementary Occupations

8 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

7 Sales and Customer ServiceOccupations

6 Personal Service Occupations

5 Skilled Trades Occupations

4 Administrative and Secretarial

3 Associate Professional and Technical

2 Professional occupations

1 Managers and Senior Officials

Per Cent of Employment by Occupation, Apr - Jun 09

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

UK EUA8 Other Non-UK

9 Elementary Occupations

8 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

7 Sales and Customer ServiceOccupations

6 Personal Service Occupations

5 Skilled Trades Occupations

4 Administrative and Secretarial

3 Associate Professional and Technical

2 Professional occupations

1 Managers and Senior Officials

Overview of Foreign Workers in the Labour MarketEarnings

•Between 1998 and 2005, the earnings for all non-UK born employees were higher than UK born.•Since 2005 median earnings for non-UK born workers have been lower than median UK born earnings.

Median Earnings by country of birth, Jul to Sept each year

250

300

350

400

450

500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

UK Non UK

All

£

Overview of Foreign Workers in the Labour MarketEarnings

Median gross weekly earnings1 for full-time employees, by country of birth for country groups.

United Kingdom, July to September(£s - not seasonally adjusted)

Total2 UK EU143 EUA84Africa ex

SASouth Africa

Australia & New Zealand India

Pakistan & Bangladesh

1998 300 298 290 279 346 323 392 298 2002003 360 356 392 420 404 430 529 400 250

2006 404 404 480 250 400 404 625 392 2602007 416 421 481 277 403 442 538 385 3382008 436 438 510 290 415 485 577 423 2922009 444 450 529 300 404 554 536 469 330

Per Cent Change on year 1.8 2.7 3.7 3.4 -2.7 14.2 -7.1 10.9 13.0

Source:Labour Force SurveyNotes:1Earnings estimates are provided using the GRSSWK variable, which provides estimates of gross weekly earnings including overtime2 Includes people who did not state their country of birth.

4Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia.

Gross weekly earnings data are known to be underestimated in the LFS. This is principally because of proxy responses.

3Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Spain (including the Canary Islands), Sweden.

Foreign Workers in the Recession

• First contraction in output (gross domestic product) was in Apr-Jun 2008.

• Employment levels and rates lagged output.

• The picture for employment levels by nationality or country of birth is similar.

Year on Year Per Cent Change in Employment by Nationality

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Apr - Jun2007

Jul - Sep2007

Oct - Dec2007

Jan - Mar2008

Apr - Jun2008

Jul - Sep2008

Oct - Dec2008

Jan - Mar2009

Apr - Jun2009

Jul - Sep2009

UK NationalityNon-UK Nationality

Year on Year Per Cent Change in Employment by Country of Birth

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Apr - Jun2007

Jul - Sep2007

Oct - Dec2007

Jan - Mar2008

Apr - Jun2008

Jul - Sep2008

Oct - Dec2008

Jan - Mar2009

Apr - Jun2009

Jul - Sep2009

UK BornNon-UK Born

Per Cent

Foreign Workers in the Recession

Employment Change on Year by Country of Birth, Apr-Jun 2008 to 2009

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

D: Manufacturing G-H: Distribution, hotels &restaurants

I: Transport &communication

J-K: Banking, finance &insurance etc

L-N: Public admin,education & health

UK EUA8 Other non-UK

Per Cent

Foreign Workers in the Recession

Unemployment Rate by Country of Birth

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-Mar 07 Apr-Jun 07 Jul-Sep 07 Oct-Dec 07 Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09

Total UK Non-UK

Per Cent

Published Analysis

• Labour Market Statistics – Table 8 and Table *8(1)

www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdtables1.asp?vlnk=lms

• Migrant Worker Articles

Employment of Foreign Workers in the UKEmployment of Foreign Workers: Focus on Earnings

Employment of Foreign Workers: Male and Female Labour Market Participation

Employment of Foreign Workers: Focus on Eurostat Ad Hoc Module

Employment of Foreign Workers: Period of Arrival

www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=15137