MEDFORD VISION

Medford, Oregon | Community Profile

COMMUNITY PROFILEMEDFORD VISION Medford, Oregon

L E L A N D C O N S U L T IN G G R O U PJ a n u a r y 2 0 2 1

2Medford, Oregon | Community Profile

MEDFORD VISIONCOMMUNITY PROFILE

The following community profile provides an overview of demographic, economic, and market conditions in Medford as of December 2020. The document is intended to provide a brief summary of current socio-demographic and market trends that can be consulted throughout the process of developing the 2040 Community Vision Project.

Data for the analyses contained within this profile came from multiple sources, including the U.S. Census, ESRI (a vendor of U.S. Census and other data), the City of Medford Planning Department, Costar (a database of commercial building information), and interviews with community stakeholders involved in housing and workforce development, education, and major employers.

PART I DEMOGRAPHICS


DEMOGRAPHICSINTRODUCTION + POPULATION

N O R TH S U B A R EAP O P . 2 3 , 6 0 0C E N TR A L

S U B A R EAP O P . 4 , 8 0 0

W E S T S U B A R EAP O P . 2 4 , 2 0 0

32%6%

29%

33%

POPUL AT ION DENS ITY BY SUBAREAE S R I , 2 0 2 0

POPUL AT ION BY SUBAREAE S R I , 2 0 2 0

E A S T S U B A R E AP O P . 2 7 , 8 0 0

The City of Medford was home to an estimated 83,115 people in 2020, accounting for about 37 percent of the Jackson County population.

For the purpose of analysis, the city of Medford was divided into four subareas – Central, North, East, and West – shown on the map at right. Each subarea has distinct characteristics that will be described in the following pages.

The smallest subarea is the Central Subarea, which is home to Medford’s downtown and about six percent of its total population. It is also the least dense, at 1,000 residents per square mile.

The West Subarea is home to 24,200 residents, and is largely residential, with a small concentration of industrial development in the north. It is the most densely populated, at 5,200 residents per square mile.

The East Subarea has a population of 27,800 residents, with 3,000 residents per square mile. This subarea is primarily residential and is home to the Providence Medford Medical Center, Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center and the Rogue Valley Country Club.

The North Subarea is the largest geographically, and is home to 23,600 residents, with 2,700 residents per square mile. The North Subarea is also residential and is the site of the Rogue Valley International-Medford Airport and Rogue Valley Mall.


DEMOGRAPHICSPOPULATION TRENDS

POPUL AT ION ANNUAL GROW TH RATE2000 - 2020E S R I , 2 0 2 0

Between 2000 and 2020, the City of Medford grew by 23 percent, adding nearly 15,500 new residents, or approximately 770 new residents annually. During the same time period, Jackson County added nearly 44,000 residents, or about 2,200 new residents each year. Therefore, approximately one third of the county’s population growth took place in Medford.

Each of the four subareas grew in population between 2000 and 2020. The Central Subarea grew by the largest percentage, at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, but had a relatively low population in 2000 compared to the other subareas, making the difference more pronounced. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of the Central Subarea increased by 26 percent.

The other three subareas grew in population by between 1.0 percent and 1.1 percent annually, for total growth of between 21 and 24 percent. The East Subarea gained the greatest number of residents, with an increase of nearly 5,000 residents between 2000 and 2020.


MEDFORD URBAN GROW TH AREA POPUL AT ION PROJECT IONSP O R T L A N D S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y , 2 0 2 0

DEMOGRAPHICSPOPULATION PROJECTIONS

Portland State University (PSU) prepares population projects for Oregon cities, counties, and unincorporated areas on an annual basis. PSU’s population projection for the Medford Urban Growth Area is shown in the graph at right.

According to PSU’s projection, the Medford Urban Growth Area is expected to add 31,100 new residents between 2020 and 2050 at an annualized growth rate of 1.04 percent. This is equivalent to an average of 1,035 new residents per year.

With an average household size of 2.5 residents, this equates to approximately 415 new households per year. Assuming a healthy housing vacancy rate of five percent, this growth in population will create demand for about 435 housing units annually. ANNUAL NE W RES IDENTS , HOUSEHOLDS +

HOUSING DEMANDP O R T L A N D S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y , L E L A N D C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P , 2 0 2 0

31,100 new residents between 2020 and 2050

1,035 new residents annually

415 new households annually

Demand for 435 additional housing units annually


DEMOGRAPHICSPOPULATION BY AGE

POPUL AT ION BY AGE GROUPE S R I , 2 0 2 0

Each of the subareas differs slightly in the composition of population by age group. Children under the age of eighteen accounti for 22 percent of the total population. There is a slightly higher proportion of children in the West Subarea (25 percent) and a slightly lower proportion in the East Subarea (20 percent). College-aged residents (ages 19-24) account for nine percent of Medford’s population and the variation by subarea is minimal.

Younger adults (ages 25 to 44) make up 26 percent of Medford’s population, with a slightly greater concentration in the Central and West subareas (29 and 28 percent, respectively) than elsewhere.

Middle-aged adults (ages 45 to 64) make up 23 percent of Medford’s population, and are evenly distributed between all the subareas.

Finally, older adults (ages 65 and older) make up 21 percent of Medford’s population. There is a larger concentration of older adults in the East Subarea, where they make up 28 percent of the population. There are notably fewer residents in this age group in the Central and West subareas, where they make up 15 and 14 percent of the population, respectively.


GROW TH IN POPUL AT ION BY AGE GROUPJACKSON COUNTY 2020 - 2040P O R T L A N D S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y , 2 0 2 0

DEMOGRAPHICSPOPULATION BY AGE

Because of differences in the size of generations, the proportion of the population in different age groups will evolve over time. One major trend has been the aging of the large Baby Boomer cohort (defined by Gallup as residents born between 1946 and 1964), which will cause a significant increase in the proportion of the retiree and senior population. According to the PSU projections, the population of residents over age 75 will increase by 15,600 between 2020 and 2040. This is expected to lead to increased demand for housing that meets the diverse needs of this age group. For example, while some older adults plan to downsize and/or relocate to be closer to their children and grandchildren, others plan to “age in place” and remain in their home.

Another age group that will increase dramatically is the population between 45 and 54, which correlates with the aging Millennial generation. This group is predicted to grow by 8,300 people over the next two decades. Finally, the under-20 age group will also grow, many of whom will be the children of today’s Millennials. This population is expected to grow by 5,300 people by 2040. This growth also has implications for housing needs. New families are expected to drive demand for family-friendly housing with adequate indoor and outdoor space, and residents of all ages are showing a growing preference for walkable and safe environments. Additionally, affordability is a concern, especially for families and residents affected by the economic downturns of the past two decades.

CURRENT AGE D ISTR IBUTIONJACKSON COUNTY 2018U S C E N S U S , 2 0 2 0


POPUL AT ION BY RACEE S R I , 2 0 2 0

DEMOGRAPHICSPOPULATION BY RACE + ETHNICITY

POPUL AT ION WITH L AT INX/H ISPANIC ETHNICITYE S R I , 2 0 2 0

One notable characteristic within Medford is the relatively high number of residents who self-report race using the response “Some Other Race.” In Medford, these respondents make up eight percent of the total population and are the second largest group after white residents (83 percent). This Central Subarea and West Subareas have the largest percentages of “Some Other Race” residents, with 18 and 12 percent, respectively.

It is likely that a number of the residents who report “Some Other Race” are of Latinx or Hispanic ethnicity. Seventeen percent of Medford residents report Latinx or Hispanic ethnicity in addition to one of seven race categories included on the census. The Central and West Subareas also have the highest proportion of Latinx residents, with 31 percent in the Central Subarea, and 24 percent in the West Subarea.

Residents reporting more than one race make up five percent of the City’s population and are evenly distributed throughout the City. Two percent of the city’s residents are Asian, and Black, American Indian, and Pacific Islander residents each make up one percent of the City’s population.

According to the American Community Survey (ACS), nearly eight percent of Medford’s population was born in another country. Latin America was the most common region of origin (five percent of Medford residents), followed by Asia (one percent of Medford residents).


DEMOGRAPHICSEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT + INCOME

EDUCATIONAL AT TA INMENTE S R I , 2 0 2 0

Educational attainment is an important metric because it closely correlates to income and earning potential. Household earnings have implications for housing affordability, transportation, and access to resources such as medical care and childcare.

Within Medford, 35 percent of the population over the age of 25 has a college degree (associate, bachelor’s or graduate degree), while 65 percent do not have a college credential. Within this category, 12 percent of Medford residents did not complete high school, 26 percent earned a high school diploma or equivalent, and 28 percent completed some college coursework but did not graduate.

Within the city, there are differences in educational attainment by subarea. In the Central Subarea, 20 percent of residents over 25 have a college degree, compared to 28 percent in the West Subarea, 31 percent in the North Subarea, and 48 percent in the East Subarea. The proportion of residents without a high school diploma is the highest in the Central Subarea (23 percent) and lowest in the East Subarea (6 percent).

The chart at right shows median household income by subarea. The Central Subarea has the lowest median household income, at $28,900, which the East Subarea has the highest median household income, at $65,000. A more in-depth discussion of household income is found on the following page.

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMEE S R I , 2 0 2 0


DEMOGRAPHICSINCOME (CONT.)

HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME BRACKETE S R I , 2 0 2 0

HOUSEHOLDS BELOW POVERTY LEVELE S R I , 2 0 2 0

Within Medford, 21 percent of households have annual income of less than $25,000, and 25 percent have incomes between $25,000 and $50,000, for a total of 46 percent of households earning $50,000 or less. However, within the Central Subarea, households earning $50,000 or less make up a greater proportion of the population, accounting for 73 percent of Central Subarea households. In other subareas, the proportion of households at the lower end of the income spectrum is closer to the city average, with 52 percent in the West Subarea, 44 percent in the North Subarea, and 39 percent in the East Subarea.

At the opposite end of the income spectrum, 21 percent of households in Medford have annual earnings of $100,000 or more. The East Subarea is home to the highest concentration of higher-earning households. Thirty percent of East Subarea households earn $100,000 or more annually, compared to 20 percent in the North Subarea, 14 percent in the West Subarea, and 7 percent in the Central Subarea.

According to 2019 ACS data (five-year estimates; table B25119), the average income of renter-occupied households was $35,911 per year, while owner-occupied households earned an average of $70,686. These are important distinctions that highlight the different needs of renters and owners.

Because poverty status is determined based on income and family size, it is not surprising that the Central Subarea has the highest proportion (30 percent) of households below the poverty level. Other subareas have significantly lower proportions of households below the poverty level, ranging from 14 to 17 percent.


DEMOGRAPHICSEMPLOYMENT

JOBS BY SUBAREAL E H D O N T H E M A P ( U S C E N S U S ) , 2 0 1 7

The map at right shows job locations according to LEHD on the Map, which provides employment data collected by various government entities. In some cases, precise locations are hidden to avoid giving data for specific employers.

Overall, job locations are relatively distributed throughout Medford, with notable concentrations downtown and along Route 99, in and around Providence Medford Medical Center, the Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center, and the airport.

Overall, in Medford, there were about 51,300 jobs in 2017 (the most recent year available). The greatest number of jobs (16,000 jobs, or 31 percent of the city total) were in the North Subarea, followed by the East Subarea (15,400 jobs, or 30 percent of the city total), the Central Subarea (13,200, or 26 percent of the city total), and the West Subarea (6,700, or 13 percent of the city total).

About half of all the jobs in Medford are held by residents from other communities (26,900 of a total 51,300), reflecting the City’s economic importance in the greater region.

For employed Medford residents, 15,900 remain in Medford to work, while 12,500 leave Medford to work elsewhere.

JOBS LOCATIONSL E H D O N T H E M A P ( U S C E N S U S ) , 2 0 1 7


DEMOGRAPHICSEMPLOYMENT TRENDS – PRE-COVID

JOBS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR2002 – 2017L E H D O N T H E M A P ( U S C E N S U S ) , 2 0 2 0

JOBS BY MONTHLY PAY 2002 – 2017L E H D O N T H E M A P ( U S C E N S U S ) , 2 0 2 0

The graphs below show employment trends in Medford from 2002 to 2017. The total number of jobs in Medford has fluctuated over time, increasing from 2002 to 2008 and then (mostly) decreasing from 2008 to 2012, due at least in part to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. From 2012 to 2017, the number of jobs increased, and likely continued to grow until early 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced many workplaces to permanently close.

Over time, the number of jobs paying more than $40,000 annually has increased in Medford, while the number of lower-paying jobs ($15,000 or less) has decreased, although this may be in part due to inflation.

Since 2002, Medford has seen increases in the number of jobs in health care, retail, wholesale trade, manufacturing, construction, accommodation and food services, and professional services. At the same time, employment has decreased in public administration and other administrative jobs and educational services.


DEMOGRAPHICSEMPLOYMENT TRENDS –NOVEMBER 2020The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented effect on employment, especially service-sector employment. Though the situation continues to evolve, data is emerging to understand the magnitude and duration of impacts.

The two graphs at right were taken from the Oregon Employment Department in November 2020 and show the impact of job loss and unemployment as a result of the pandemic.

For the most part, the most vulnerable workers are those employed in the leisure and hospitality sectors. Because these jobs are typically hourly service-sector jobs, these workers are also more vulnerable to issues of housing and health care affordability even when the economy is strong.

The timeframe for economic recovery is still unknown, but the graph at right shows the effects of the 2007-2009 recession. Following this recession, unemployment reached pre-recession levels after a period of recovery from 2009 to 2015. Though the current recession is caused by a different set of factors, it should be anticipated that recovery will take place over a period of years.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://oregonemployment.blogspot.com/2020/11/disparate-impact-covid-19-job-losses-by.html


DEMOGRAPHICSHOUSEHOLDS

A V E RA GE H O U S E H OL D S I Z E

F A M IL Y H O U S E H OL D S

H O U S E H OL D S W I T H C H I L D R E N

S I N G L E P E R S ON H O U S E H OL D S

The graphs at right give a snapshot of how household composition varies within Medford’s subareas. The average household in Medford has 2.5 residents. Average household size is smaller in the Central and East Subareas and larger in the West Subarea.

The difference in average household size is largely explained by differences in household composition across areas. The Central Subarea has the lowest proportion of family households (households made up of related family members, who make up 50 percent of households in the subarea) and households with children (28 percent), as well as the highest percentage of single person households (40 percent). The largest average household size is found in the West Subarea, where there is the highest proportion of family households (67 percent), households with children (37 percent), and lowest proportion of single person households (24 percent).

Elsewhere in the city, family households make up about two-thirds of all households, while households with children account for about one-third of all households in the West and North Subareas (indicating that about half of family households have children under eighteen, while the other half are couples or family members without children or with grown children). In the East Subarea, children are present in about one-fourth of households.

Overall, single-member households make up 29 percent of Medford households. Household composition is an important factor in understanding what types of housing are needed most. Likewise, the size, type, and price of available housing is an important determination of where different households choose to live and may in part drive the differences in household type seen in different parts of the city.

E S R I , 2 0 2 0


DEMOGRAPHICSHOUSING

T O T A L H O U S I N G U N I T S

M E D IA N Y E A R B U I L T

There were an estimated 35,800 housing units in Medford in 2020. Since 2000, the number of housing units has grown by 27 percent.

The greatest number of housing units is found in the East Subarea (11,700), followed by the North Subarea (10,230), and West Subarea (8,690). The Central Subarea has a relatively low number of housing units (1,830), which is in part due to its smaller size, but also because of its primary function as a central business district, rather than a residential neighborhood.

In general, the oldest housing stock is found in the Central Subarea, where the median age of housing units is more than 60 years old. In the West Subarea, median housing age is about 50 years old, and in the East Subarea, median housing age is about 40 years old. The newest housing stock is found in the North Subarea, where the median age of housing is about 35 years old.

Rental and vacant housing is more prevalent in the Central Subarea, while the West, East, and North Subareas are relatively uniform and consistent with citywide averages.

Within Medford, rented housing units account for approximately 45 percent of all occupied housing units.

HOUS ING BY OCCUPANCY TYPEE S R I , 2 0 2 0

E S R I , 2 0 2 0


DEMOGRAPHICSHOUSING

HOUSING UNITS BY STRUCTURE TYPEE S R I , 2 0 2 0

HOUSING UNITS BY VALUEE S R I , 2 0 2 0

Housing varies by price and mix of structure type throughout Medford.

The Central Subarea is characterized by low housing values, with a median home value of $70,100. More than half of the housing units are valued below $100,000. It is also characterized by a higher proportion of units in apartment buildings (38 percent) and mobile homes (17 percent) than other subareas.

The West Subarea is characterized by a high proportion of detached single-family homes (67 percent), units in smaller multifamily buildings between two and nine units (22 percent), and mobile homes (10 percent). Housing in the West Subarea is the most affordable outside of the Central Subarea, with nearly 75 percent of homes valued at $300,000 or less.

The East Subarea has a mix of housing types. Single-family homes make up 61 percent of units and multifamily structures make up 39 percent of units. More than half of the housing units are valued in the $300,000 to $500,000 range, with about 25 percent valued at less than $300,000 and 25 percent valued at more than $500,000. Housing valued at $750,000 or more makes up about six percent of housing.

The North Subarea’s mix of housing is similar to that of the East Subarea, with 62 percent of units within single family housing, 33 percent of units within multi family housing, and five percent of units within mobile homes. Housing units valued at between $200,000 and $500,000 make up 75 percent of the housing stock.

PART II MARKET TRENDS


MARKET ANALYSISSINGLE FAMILY HOUSING

S I N G L E F A M I L Y B U I L D I N G P E R M I T L O C A T I O N S 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 0C I T Y O F M E D F O R D P L A N N I N G D E P A R T M E N T , 2 0 2 0

Building Permits by Subarea Total Number of Permits Average Value of PermitsCentral Subarea 4 $246,100West Subarea 390 $215,200East Subarea 659 $275,800North Subarea 384 $270,100Grand Total 1,437 $257,700Building Permits by Type Total Number of Permits Percent of Total Permits1 Story 952 66%1.5 Story 6 0%2 Story 281 20%3 Story 12 1%Townhome 35 2%None Listed or Other 151 11%

S I N G L E F A M I L Y B U I L D I N G P E R M I T V A L U E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 0C I T Y O F M E D F O R D P L A N N I N G D E P A R T M E N T , 2 0 2 0

Since 2015, the City of Medford has issued about 1,400 building permits for single-family housing. Notable new single-family developments include Summerfield at Southeast Park (about 200 units, East Subarea), Delta Estates (72 units, North Subarea), and Forest Ridge at Vista (64 units, East Subarea).

As shown in the graph below, the East Subarea has seen the greatest value of housing permit development since 2015, with over $181 million in housing development. Very little single-family development has taken place in the Central Subarea.

Throughout the City, the average value of a building permit is about $258,000, and the most common building type is single-story housing, which accounts for 66 percent of permits. Two story housing makes up an additional 20 percent.

S I N G L E F A M I L Y B U I L D I N G P E R M I T V A L U E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 0C I T Y O F M E D F O R D P L A N N I N G D E P A R T M E N T , 2 0 2 0


MARKET ANALYSISHOUSING TRENDS + NEEDThe graph below shows housing permit activity by month from January 2015 through September 2020 as well as estimated housing need by month, which is based on the growth in the number of households during the same time period. From 2015 to 2020, Medford grew by about 4,000 households, which, accounting for vacant housing units, generated demand for about 4,200 housing units.

During this same time, just over 1,400 housing permits were issued, and 90 units of multifamily were built, for a total of almost 1,500 units. Compared to the housing demand generated by new households, this left a 2,700-unit gap between supply and demand during this time.

H O U S I N G P E R M I T A C T I V I T Y A N D E S T I M A T E D H O U S I N G N E E D2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 0C I T Y O F M E D F O R D P L A N N I N G D E P A R T M E N T , L E L A N D C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P , 2 0 2 0

57 - Estimated units needed each month to meet demand

Building permit applications

As shown in the graph below, housing demand increased by an average of 57 units per month, while the number of permits issued averaged 21 units per month. Moreover, the total number of permits has trended downward over time, creating a larger housing gap.

The Almeda fire that took place in September 2020 further compounded this problem, causing an estimated loss of between 2,400 and 2,700 housing units in the adjacent communities of Talent and Phoenix. This loss of housing units, including more affordable housing options, such as mobile homes and manufactured housing, will create an even more urgent need to develop housing in the community.

An average of 21 housing permits were issued each month


MARKET ANALYSISMULTIFAMILY

M U L T IFA MILY U N IT S B Y S U B A R EAC O S T A R , 2 0 2 0

The map at right shows the location of multifamily housing within Medford. Blue circles indicate properties developed in 2000 or later.

Since 2000, the City of Medford has added about 1,570 units of multifamily housing, representing an increase of 61 percent. Major recently-developed multifamily developments include Charles Point (600 units, Central Subarea), San George Estates (175 units, Central Subarea), and Ish Ranch Estates (104 units, West Subarea).

Overall, the greatest number of multifamily units is found in the East Subarea, where there are over 1,500 units. The fewest multifamily units are found in the West Subarea, which has fewer than 500 apartment units. The Central Subarea added the greatest number of multifamily units over the past two decades, increasing by over 500 new units during this time.

M U L T I F A M I L Y H O U S I N G L O C A T I O N S C O S T A R , 2 0 2 0

Built 2000 or later


MARKET ANALYSISMULTIFAMILY

M U L T IFA MILY U N IT A V E R A G E E F F E CT IVE R E N T B Y S U B A RE AC O S T A R , 2 0 2 0

M U L T IFA MILY O C CUPA NCY B Y S U B A R EAC O S T A R , 2 0 2 0

Average effective rent is highest in the North Subarea, at $1,195 per month during the first half of 2020. The Central Subarea has the second-highest average effective rent of the subareas, at $1,025 per month. The average monthly rents in the East and West subareas are lower, at $955 and $925, respectively.

Since 2009, multifamily occupancy has been very high, between 96 and 97 percent in all subareas. This, combined with rising rents, indicates that there is demand for additional multifamily housing within the community.


MARKET ANALYSISCOMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT

C O M MERCIA L D E V E L OPMEN T B Y S U B A R EAC O S T A R , 2 0 2 0

The map at the right shows the location of commercial development within Medford. For the most part, commercial development is clustered in central areas and along major corridors, including Interstate 5, Route 99, between the Rouge Valley Expressway and Crater Lake Highway, and West Main Street.

All commercial development types in Medford show a tendency to cluster. Retail tends to cluster in and around major arterial roads, and stores and restaurants tend to group along corridors or within shopping centers. Office development is clustered in and around downtown, as well as Navigator’s Landing Business Park (just west of the airport), Crater Lake Business Center, and around the two medical centers. Hospitality is mostly found in the Central Subarea and along Interstate 5, while industrial development is largely restricted to areas around the airport and the Parsons Industrial Complex in the northern portion of the West Subarea.

Most commercial development is in the North Subarea, with 6.5 million square feet, over half of which is retail (56 percent). The Central Subarea comes in second, at 4.4 million square feet, also largely retail (49 percent). The East Subarea has 3 million square feet, with office making up the largest proportion (35 percent). Finally, the West Subarea has the smallest amount of commercial square footage, at 1.5 million square feet. The predominant type in the West Subarea is industrial (61 percent).

Within the City of Medford, 46 percent of commercial development by square foot is retail space, followed by industrial (20 percent), office (18 percent), hospitality (10 percent) and privately-developed health care (6 percent).

M E D F ORD C O M MER CIA L D E V E LOPMEN T C O S T A R , 2 0 2 0


MARKET ANALYSISDEVELOPMENT SINCE 2000

C O M MERCIA L D E V E L OPMEN T S Q . F T . S IN C E 2 0 00C O S T A R , 2 0 2 0

The map at the right shows the areas of the City that have seen new construction (included planned and proposed developments) in the past two decades. These locations are indicated using larger markers, while pre-2000 development is shown with smaller, faded markers.

The North Subarea has seen the greatest concentration of new commercial development with 1.6 million square feet. Retail accounted for 46 percent of new square footage, followed by industrial (23 percent) and office (22 percent).

The Central Subarea saw 635,000 square feet constructed since 2000. Major categories were retail (40 percent) and office (31 percent)

The West Subarea grew by about 515,000 square feet since 2000. Industrial space made up 76 percent of this total, and office accounted for 13 percent.

The East Subarea experienced the least development activity during this time. The subarea grew by nearly 530,000 square feet. The largest growth categories were office (40 percent) and hospitality (31 percent).

C O M MERCIA L D E V E L OPMEN T S IN C E 2 0 00C O S T A R , 2 0 2 0


MARKET ANALYSISRETAIL

R E T A I L S Q . F T . B Y S U B A R EA

R E T A I L R E N T P E R S Q . F T . B Y S U B AR E A

R E T A I L O C CUPA NCY B Y S U B A R EA

Since 2000, the City of Medford has added about 1.1 million square feet of retail space, representing an increase of 18 percent. Major recently-developed retail areas include Northgate Marketplace, the Delta Center and other sites along Crater Lake Highway and the Rogue Valley Expressway, Jackson Creek Center, and the South Riverside Avenue / Barnett Road intersection.

The average year built for retail space in the North Subarea is 1994, while in the East and West subareas it is 1981 and 1980, respectively. Retail in the Central Subarea was built, on average, in 1963, reflecting the City’s historical downtown hub.

Overall, rent per square foot for retail space is highest in the East Subarea, where the average rent since 2009 has been about $16 per square foot per year (triple-net). This is followed by the North Subarea, at an average of $14 per square foot, the Central Subarea, at an average of $11 per square foot, and then the West Subarea, where retail rents averaged $8 per square foot. Rent for newer properties (built since 2000) tend to be slightly higher, in the $16 -$20+ range. In general, rents of $24 or higher signify that there is a strong market for new speculative retail development.

Since 2009, retail occupancy has been the highest in the North Subarea (98 percent), followed by the Central Subarea (96 percent), East Subarea (93 percent), and then the West Subarea (89 percent). This variation in retail occupancy within the subareas indicates that some areas of Medford have strong market demand for additional retail, while other locations are not as competitive.


MARKET ANALYSISOFFICE

O F F ICE S Q . F T . B Y S U B AR E A

O F F ICE R E N T P E R S Q . F T . B Y S U B A R EA

O F F ICE O C C UPA NCY B Y S U B A RE A

Since 2000, the City of Medford has added about 835,000 square feet of office space, representing an increase of 43 percent. Major recently-developed office parks include the Crater Lake Business Center, Navigator’s Landing Office Park, Airport Commerce Park, The Commons, and Tower Business Park. One major addition was the Lithia Motors Headquarters, which added 70,000 square feet to the Central Subarea in 2013, accounting for eight percent of new office development during this time period.

The average year built for office space in the North Subarea is 2001, while in the East Subarea it is 1978. In the West Subarea, the average office year built is 1966, and in the Central Subarea, it is 1950.

Overall, annual rent per square foot for office space is fairly similar in the North Subarea ($15), East Subarea ($14) and Central Subarea ($14). In the West Subarea, office rents were slightly lower, at $12 per square foot. Rent for newer properties (built since 2000) tend to be slightly higher, in the $16 - $20 range. In general, office rents of $28 or higher signify that there is a strong market for new speculative office development.

Since 2009, office occupancy has been the highest in the West Subarea (95 percent), followed by the East Subarea (94 percent), North Subarea (93 percent), and then the Central Subarea (91 percent).

Fluctuating office rent and occupancy indicates that demand for office space varies by subarea and over time. However, a substantial amount of office space has been added in recent years. The current occupancy of office space (95 percent) indicates that there is some equilibrium in supply and demand at present, though demand may be stronger for some office users or in certain locations.


MARKET ANALYSISINDUSTRIAL

IN D U ST R IA L S Q . F T . B Y S U B A R EA

IN D U ST R IA L R E N T P E R S Q . F T . B Y S U B A R EA

IN D U ST R IA L O C C UPA NCY B Y S U B A R EA

Since 2000, the City of Medford has added about 850,000 square feet of industrial space, representing an increase of 39 percent. Major recently-developed industrial areas include the Parsons Industrial Complex in the West Subarea and the areas to the north, east, and west of the airport in the North Subarea. Development has concentrated mostly in these two areas, with some limited small-scale development in the south of the Central Subarea, and none in the East Subarea.

There is less information about industrial rent than other commercial land use types, but overall, industrial rent has averaged $6 per square foot per year since 2009, though it has trended upward in recent years, and is now between $8 and $9 per square foot. Industrial occupancy has been high, averaging between 95 and 99 percent in the Central, West, and North subareas.

The high occupancy and increasing rents for industrial spaces indicates a strong market for additional industrial development in the Medford area.

MEDFORD VISION

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