Maxime Jal - Master's Thesis

ACADEMIE DE MONTPELLIER

UNIVERSITE MONTPELLIER II

INSTITUT D’ADMINISTRATION DES ENTREPRISES

Master Sciences et Technologies

Chargé d’Affaires International

Master’s Thesis

Presented by: Mr. Maxime Jal

Mentor: Mr. Gilles Séré de Lanauze

Company Tutor: Mr. Jérôme Mouterde

University Year:

M2 - CAI 2013/2014

The Energy’s Power Towards a Third Industrial Era led by Solar Energy

Master’s Thesis: The Energy’s Power

AUTHOR’S EMAIL: [email protected]

DATE OF PRESENTATION: September 9th

2014

JURY: Mr. Gilles Séré de Lanauze and Mr. Victor Mejia

INSTITUT D’ADMINISTRATION DES ENTREPRISES

UNIVERSITE MONTPELLIER II

Place Eugène Bataillon

34095 Montpellier cedex 5

Tél. : 04 67 14 38 65

Summary:

The Energy’s Power is an invitation to look for a new economic model, where

progress and economic growth are reconciled.

This thesis gives all the keys to understand the actual Global Energy Context. It

shows the impact of oil’s dependency on our modern society. The Energy’s Power

describes how we can reach a new Industrial Era and its benefits. It takes us on a

journey into a new Industrial Era led by Solar Energy where every roofs and

windows are a micro power plant, an Era where districts are energy self-sufficient.

The thesis gives an overview of the future of solar energy and explains it actual

downturn. The manager of a solar energy company will have a comprehensive

view of the market and its evolution. He will get the key information to know how

to compete with conventional energy company of our Second Industrial Age.

Key words:

Solar Energy – Third Industrial Era – Energy Transition – Renewable Energy –

Economic Model – Economic Growth – Climate Change – Progress – Industrial

Revolution – Energy Security of Supply – Solar Industry – Solar Technology –

Second Industrial Age – Solar Panel – Hybrid Solar Panel – CSP Technology –

Transparent Panel – Post carbon Era – Fossil Fuels – Thermo-industrial

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"Eventually industry will no longer find in Europe the

resources to satisfy its prodigious expansion... Coal will

undoubtedly be used up. What will industry do then?"

— Augustin Bernard Mouchot, after demonstrating an

early industrial application of solar thermal energy (1880).

IAE Montpellier does not intend to give any endorsement or approval of the opinions

expressed in this paper; Views expressed in this document are the author's own.

Table of Contents

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................... 7

FOREWORD .......................................................................................................................... 8

LIST OF ABREVATIONS .................................................................................................. 10

INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 11

I. Last Breaths for the Second Industrial Era ....................................................................... 13

1. Energy sources: An Engine of Economic Growth ........................................................ 13

2. The Impact of Fossil Fuels Dependency ....................................................................... 17

3. The Beginning of a Third Industrial Era ....................................................................... 20

II. The Solution of Solar Power ......................................................................................... 25

4. The different applications of solar energy ..................................................................... 25

5. The Recent History of Solar Energy ............................................................................. 27

6. Towards a Sustainable Model for Solar Energy ............................................................ 30

III. The Role of Solar Energy in the Upcoming Third Industrial Era ................................. 33

7. The Energy Transitions ................................................................................................. 33

8. The Consequences for Solar Energy Industry ............................................................... 35

9. The Future of Solar Energy ........................................................................................... 37

CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................ 40

Annexes ................................................................................................................................ 41

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to acknowledge the support I received from my co-workers, friends and family

during the pursuing of a master’s degree, especially while completing this work placement

and Master thesis.

The internship opportunity I had with DualSun’s company was a great chance for my

professional development. Therefore, I consider myself to be a very lucky individual as I was

provided with an opportunity to be a part of it.

First and foremost I would like to express my deep gratitude to Mr. Jérôme Mouterde, my

supervisor during this work placement and C.E.O. of DualSun’s company. In spite of being

extraordinarily busy with his duties, he dedicated time out to hear, guide and keep me on the

correct path and allowing me to carry out my project at their esteemed organization. My

completion of this Master thesis could not have been accomplished without him and his

accurate vision of the solar energy industry.

Furthermore, I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor Mr. Gilles Séré De

Lanauze, Head of the Master in International Business and Management at the IAE

Montpellier, for the useful comments, remarks and engagement through the learning process

of this Master thesis and more generally during this Master’s Degree.

I express my deepest thanks to Mrs. Gaëlle Terrom and Mr. Rémi Heutte, Design Manager

and Production Manager at DualSun’s company, for their valuable and constructive

suggestions during the planning and development of my work. I appreciated very much their

willingness to give their time so generously.

I am very grateful to Mr. Viktor Veeser, Chief Technical Adviser for taking part in useful

decisions and giving necessary advices and guidance.

Special thanks also to Mrs. Alki Delichatsios for sharing the literature and her invaluable

assistance.

Last but not least, I would like to thank everyone around the world I have been in contact with

during this internship, and who believe and share the same passion, as I have for developing

solar energy as a main source of power. I could learn a lot from them about the current

situation of world solar industry.

FOREWORD

Since my previous studies in energy engineering I have been fascinated by solar energy. Then

I decided to incorporate a Business School not to only understand how solar energy works and

to improve the technology but also to be available to promote it which in my opinion an

import point to implement this new energy solution.

Those previous studies and work experiences in France, Denmark, and Brazil revealed my

vocation to be a main actor in the Energy Transition1 we are going through. My motivations

are several:

1. Build a smarter and sustainable world to improve our quality of life and security

2. Working in a pioneer field promoting a new industrial age

3. Passion for physics and new technologies

Those are the reasons why I chose to participate at the European Master in Renewable Energy

at the “Ecole des Mines ParisTech” next year.

My practical placement to complete my Master Degree in International Business confirmed

my passion for solar energy.

I had the privileged to work in a very innovative company, called DualSun. The company's

hybrid solar technology is based on two principles regarding photovoltaic panels (PV):

1. PV panels generate much more heat (85%) than electricity (15%) when exposed to the

sun.

2. The efficiency of PV panels decreases as temperature increases.

DualSun's innovative hybrid solar panel recovers the wasted heat from the photovoltaic cells

to produce hot water. In the process, the water circulation cools the PV cells, increasing

efficiency up to 15%. Thus, a DualSun installation can produce 2 - 4 times more energy than

a standard photovoltaic installation2.

1 Energy Transition is the shift by several countries to sustainable economies by means of renewable energy,

energy efficiency and sustainable development. The final goal is the abolishment of coal and other non-

renewable energy sources (Federal Ministry for the Environment, 29 March 2012). 2 http://dualsun.com/product/2-in-1-solar/

DualSun’s hybrid solar panel production comparing to a standard PV panel Today the company is selling its hybrid solar panel in France and Switzerland. The main task

of my work placement was to do an international marketing analysis to identify the mains

markets for DualSun. This international development will allow the company to increase its

volumes and realize an economy of scale. Above all it will increase the use of solar energy

worldwide.

The internship allowed me to be in touch with global players in solar power and understand

the current state of solar industry and its evolution. The problem faced by companies in this

pioneering sector, is their dependence on government policy concerning alternative energy,

which makes it a very fragile sector.

The second and more scientific task was to develop a new energy system, easier to export

than the one sold in France. This one does not need a special qualification to be installed and

it uses the basic local elements.

I perceive this opportunity as a big milestone in my career development. I will strive to use

gained skills and knowledge in the best way, and I will continue to work on their

improvement, in order to attain desired career objectives.

LIST OF ABREVATIONS

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

IEA: International Energy Agency

OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

CGES: Centre for Global Energy Studies

TIR: Third Industrial Revolution

DHW: Domestic Hot Water

PV: Photovoltaic

T: Thermal

LCOE: Levelized Cost of Energy

IRENA: International Agency for Renewable Energies

PV-T: Hybrid Solar Panel

INTRODUCTION

At the end of the eighteenth century, the Industrial Revolution led to a major change in

agriculture, manufacturing, the mining sector, transport, and technology. Since then the rate of

scientific discovery and technical innovation has increased dramatically. It had a profound

socioeconomic effect on the standard of living.

At first, all of this has been possible by the use of coal, lifeblood of this First Industrial Era.

Then, at the beginning of the twentieth century, oil became the primary source of energy; it

was the beginning of the Second Industrial Era, the one where we still are today. We can then

wonder what happens when oil production reaches its peak and starts to fall?

Thirty years after the publication of the first study following the first oil crisis beginning in

1971, which suggested, arguments in support, the exponential growth of industrial and food

production, energy consumption, human population and pollution, lead us into a crisis and can

only lead to a more or less abrupt collapse of our society in the first decades of the twenty-

first century; nothing serious has been done globally to turn the tide. In December 2009, at

Copenhagen, the United Nations Climate Change Conference has been a new example. No

final agreement had been found.

Since a short time, economic growth and progress do not go along anymore. The world is

severely dependent of oil, which represents 7% of the World Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

according to the Centre for Global Studies. Therefore, an increase of the economic growth

leads to an increase of oil consumption which creates an increasement of the oil price and this

fact creates a reduction of the GDP. Our economic model is not sustainable any more.

However, despite a lack of a global decision, some governments have taken the initiative to

use alternative energy resources in order to enter in a Sustainable Era. Some countries already

understood than a change is not only necessary to response to Climate Change but that the

benefits are several: security of energy supply, sustainable economy, competitiveness,

creation of new jobs, air quality improvement, etc...

It is still possible to come back to a model which allows both: Economic Growth and

Progress. According to the International Energy Agency, by 2050, the sun will be the main

source of energy on earth.

What role will solar industry plays in

the upcoming Third Industrial Age?

13

I. Last Breaths for the Second Industrial Era

1. Energy sources: An Engine of Economic Growth

There is no economy, progress and thus evolution of the human species without energy. Since

the dawn of time we need a source of energy to meet our basic needs. For centuries, wood

was the most important source to assure cooking and heating. We have never needed as much

energy as in recent decades but therefore technological innovation and progress have never

been as rapid.

An economy based on fossil resources

In the first century of the Christian era Heron of Alexandria built the Éolipyle, a kind of toy

using steam to run a turbine. We had to wait for Denis Papin, to show that the vapor pressure

could drive a piston in a cylinder. The work of Nicolas Léonard Sadi Carnot and the birth of

thermodynamics allowed formalizing this concept. It is precisely this notion, attached to

machines developed during the industrial revolution, in parallel with the use of fossil energy

that tipped the technical system to the thermo-industrial civilization.

The discovery of the steam engine will change the world by creating a sudden acceleration of

progress that impacts lifestyles.

The first utilization of this new system was for the textile industry and was quickly used in

metallurgy and transport. Each discovery or development resulting or enabling another

technological breakthrough, is leading to a snowball effect which accelerates more and more

new technology inventions. And the Industrial Revolution, particularly in its first period

began in the late eighteenth century, relies on coal for generating steam to operate boats and a

little later locomotives. The new transport will allows an increasement of trade on larger

distances. Another source of energy will be exploited during this period, gas. It served to

illuminate the first factories before the widespread use of electricity in the late nineteenth

century.

Since that time, all our economy is based on fossil resources.

A modification of the model operated between the end of the 19th century and early 20th

century from coal as an energy source to oil with the invention of the internal combustion

14

engine (see annex 1). We call it the second industrial revolution.

Today the oil still has a significant impact on our economy, but we are getting into a new

transition.

It seems than we are going through a new transition phase and moving towards a Third Era

which will be based not on fossil fuels but on renewable energy. And in Europe, continent at

the forefront of this transition, for the first time, renewable energy - including hydro and

biomass - have dominated the energy mix in 20133, beyond very little coal and nuclear (see

annex 2). That is why many scientists agree to say that the Third Industrial Revolution4 had

already started in Europe. And we will see its impact on the different industries and more

especially the one on the solar industry.

As we can see in Annex 1, each transition phase took at least 30 years. There is no technology

which is working well immediately. It took time to develop the steam engine as it took time to

develop the oil engine and it is the same for renewable energy technologies now.

Image 1: Illustration of the different industrial eras in the automobile sector: Photos of a

steam car, an oil car and an electric car

Image 1, we can see the impact of changes in primary energy sources on the automobile

industry. On the left, the car barrel of Dr. Jacquot 1878 using coal. In the centre, A Ford T

(1908), that uses oil is the second industrial age, while the Renault ZOE, an electric car output

in 2013, heralds the beginning of the Third Industrial Era. The latter fueled by electricity,

batteries can be driven by any source of primary energy such as renewable energy.

Still today, the entire world economy is based on oil and an increasement of its price can

3http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2014/05/27/sept-graphiques-pour-comprendre-la-nouvelle-donne-energetique-

mondiale_4426865_3244.html

4 The Third Industrial Revolution by Jeremy Rifkin

15

wobble the entire global economy. There are different reasons, presented further, why we

want to accelerate the transition process to reach the Third Industrial Revolution.

The Global Energy Mix

In every regions of the world energy supply depends on the economic and political situation,

but also the availability of different resources. Therefore, the distribution of consumption of

energy sources is not quite the same from one point to another of the world: the energy mix

can differ. There are more installed solar farms in California than in northern Europe for

instance.

World Global Energy Mix in 20085

Easy to carry and very energetic, oil occupies a prominent place in the global energy mix as

previously mentioned. But today, humanity is faced with new economic, demographic and

environmental challenges. That is why this model will evolve to a more diverse energy mix,

making a greater emphasis on alternative energy. If renewable energy is still struggling to

establish itself, experiencing ups and downs, we can analyze that the global demand for

energy worldwide will continue to increase the cost of fossil fuels, making them more

competitive alternative energy.

According to the International Energy Agency6, global primary energy demand, mainly driven

by non-OECD countries, will increase by about a third until 2035. And renewable energy in

5 World Primary Fuel Mix, 2008. Chart by Dave Waldorf. Data source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2008 (released June 2009)

6 http://www.planete-energies.com/MEDIAS/MEDIAS_INFOS/1021/FR/LR18-VF.pdf

16

all its forms appears as the key to accommodate this growth while preserving natural

resources and the environment.

The Financial Burden of Energy

We are not use to see energy from an economical point of view but much more as a need

whereas it has an important impact on GDP and on the world economy.

According to the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), Oil costs represent 5% of the

World GDP. Transportation costs, refining and marketing, as well as taxes on petroleum

products, bear this share to 7%. This level had not been reached since 2008. For the CGES,

the global economy is struggling to bear a cost of more than 5% of global GDP gross7.

The fossil fuel industry has a very important role in the global economy. The oil and gas

companies represent the fourth largest volume of the turnover with 2.150 billion dollars in

2014 (see Annex 5). Today, three of the four largest companies in the world are oil

companies: Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil, and BG. Five hundred companies dependent on

fossil fuels for their very survival, combined a revenue of $22.5 trillion, which is the

equivalent of one-third of the world’s $62 trillion GDP8.

According to the French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Research (INSEE),

France needs today, a third of a barrel of oil to produce thousand euros of GDP9. Even if, this

raw material is the engine of growth, it has an high cost to the French economy, as it has a

cost for all countries which do not have this black gold. Thus, the energy bill of France has

shown in 2012, € 68.7 billion (80% consists of oil) thus represents the equivalent of 3.4% of

French GDP10

. We see that without deficit in the energy bill, the growth of France would be at

least of 3.4 percentage points higher.

The EU spends 2.5% of its annual GDP on energy imports (petroleum: € 270 billion and gas:

€ 40 billion)11

. The European continent is the largest energy importer in the world. GDP’s

Growth would be at least 2.5% higher than the current level if we were not counting on

7 http://www.agenceecofin.com/hydrocarbures/2408-994-le-petrole-pese-7-du-pib-mondial-trop-pour-sortir-de-

la-crise 8 Broder, J.M. (2010, October 20). Climate Change Doubt Is Tea Party Article of Faith. New York Times.

9http://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/cercle-88362-limpact-de-la-hausse-du-prix-du-petrole-sur-la-

croissance-francaise-1001655.php?ApETad9eqxZyxs31.99

10

http://www.developpementdurable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/08__Les_importations_exportations_facture_nergtique.pd

f 11

Présentation of J.M. Barroso at the European Council of 4 February 2011

17

imported fossil fuels by producing this energy locally. The economy of Europe, even more

than other continents, is thus intimately linked to changes in the price of fossil fuels for its

economic growth. This is one reason why Europe seeks to get out of this position and is at the

forefront of the transition to the Third Industrial Era. The desire is to boost growth through

energy transition12

.

This allows us to understand the usefulness of heading rapidly towards this Third Industrial

Era that unlike the first two that were based on non-renewable energy, uses inexhaustible

energy produced locally.

2. The Impact of Fossil Fuels Dependency

Fossil fuels are unfair; it is an elite energy13

for the simple reason that we do not find it

everywhere. During the first industrial era, that of coal, the countries which possessed it, such

as England, France, Germany and Belgium developed quickly. Then with the arrival of oil

and the Second Industrial Revolution, it is the United States who have taken advantage of this

"Energy's power" and developed strongly, becoming the world's leading economic power.

Some countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar became important country, interesting for

all the "big" governments around the world. They developed in a few decades simply because

their land possesses black gold sources in large quantities. They became powerful because

they had precious energy. If Economic, political and military power is due to the possession

of an energy source, we can speak of “Energy’s Power”.

Responsible for Global Economic Crisis

For over a century, oil is one of the fundamental drivers of global economic growth, hence its

nickname "black gold." The oil is used directly or indirectly in many industrial production

processes and transport. Changes in the price therefore have a significant impact on the

economy. The impact is much more important because there is no alternative to replace oil in

a short-term. The oil shocks affected very deeply the worldwide economies.

We can clearly see in Annex 3 the correlation between oil prices, unemployment and GDP.

Economic crises of the second industrial revolution have always been preceded by a spike in

the price of fossil fuels and particularly oil, the mainstay of our second industrial era.

12

http://www.liberation.fr/monde/2014/02/17/relancer-l-europe-par-la-transition-energetique_980844

13

The Third Industrial Revolution by Jeremy Rifkin, p. 107.

18

2008: The third oil shock?

The origin of the 2008 crisis is usually associated with subprime. According to Annex 4, we

can see that the subprime mortgage is a consequence of the evolution of oil prices.

Some journalists, scholars and politicians speak of "third oil shock" to describe the pick of the

price in the first half of 200814

.

Global Warming: another argument to accelerate the Energy Transition?

The White House released a new report on July 29, 2014 from the Council of Economic

Advisers that examines the economic consequences of delaying action to stem climate

change. The report finds that delaying policy actions by a decade increases total mitigation

costs by approximately 40 percent, and failing to take any action would risk substantial

economic damage. These findings emphasize the need for policy action today.15

The climate system is a very "unstable" system, and a small change somewhere can have a

very important later and further effect. It will never be possible to make detailed local

forecasts. This is part of normal limits of climate modeling, because the system itself is not

predictable in detail at the local level (impossible to say what the temperature will be in New

York July 4, 2036). The uncertainty of the data at the scale of a small area should not lead us

to the conclusion that there is no danger.

9GAG Publication

14

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crise_des_subprimes 15

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/29/white-house-report-cost-delaying-action-stem-climate-

change

19

As most of the world's energy consists of fossil fuels as we have seen previously (Chapter 1:

The Global energy mix), as soon as there is economic growth there is an increasement of

greenhouse gas emissions, with the model the Second Industrial Era.

The scientific community is now very confident in the main qualitative conclusions of the

models, and in particular that the average temperature at ground level will increase in

response to our emissions of greenhouse gas and also causing a rising sea level16

.

Influence on Economic Policy

Today the wealth of a country does not depend on what it produces but also of its treasures of

the soil. There are many examples, such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Russia,

Australia, Brazil, which are mainly based on raw material economy. This has a political

impact on the decisions of the national budget. A country with a wealth from its soil resources

will be less interested in having innovative companies and it will tend to invest less in

education and research (e.g.) because the country does not financially depend on these

sectors.

The Ukrainian’s crisis and the rise of tensions with Russia show us how Europe is dependent

on Russia’s gas which represents one-fourth of European gas consumption. Proponents of

shale gas have the opportunity to make believe that it is essential, but that argument is

fallacious. The real way to reduce dependence is to turn to a new model based on locally

produced renewable energy.

We can wonder about the reaction of the European governments against Russia if Europe

would not depend on Russia’s gas? In a difficult economic environment in Europe, leaders are

to prioritize economic interests. We can also ask ourselves the same question about the war in

Iraq and the Gulf War: would the U.S. government have made the same decisions if these

countries had no oil?

The problem is, as we have already seen in Chapter 1, that oil is essential to economic growth

in our Second Industrial Era.

THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMY IS UNDERWAY

As mentioned in this chapter, disadvantages of using this elite fossil fuel energy are

numerous. It is causing or accentuating many economic and political crises around the world,

highlighting the climate changes of the planet and altering the quality of life of its inhabitants.

16

http://www.manicore.com/documentation/serre/index.html#Predire_l_avenir

20

This is why governments attempt quickly to reach a new industrial era based on an energy

that can be accessed at any time (security of supply), an energy that does not undergo rapid

and global fluctuation entraining economic crisis.

3. The Beginning of a Third Industrial Era

As we have shown in the previous chapter, countries are seeking for climate saving,

competitiveness and energy security.

Three Drivers

To achieve these objectives, countries have three levers they can use to decrease excessive

dependence on fossil fuel.

These three drivers are:

1. Sobriety

2. Efficiency

3. Renewable Energy

It leads to « Negawatt », a term introduced by Amory Lovins in 198917

. It is the power we are

going to save by taking care of the 3 drivers comparing to the actual solution.

17

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negawatt_power

21

Three drivers to the Third Industrial Era

For example, sobriety (1) is the use of a small car instead of a large (a Smart rather than

driving a Hummer). This can also be living in a house of 100 m² rather than a house of 300 m²

which must be heated just for a family of 4 or 5 people.

Regarding efficiency (2), this will be to use a system that has a greater efficiency. For

example Jeeps used during the Second World War had an engine output of around 7%

whereas today engines gasoline cars have a yield of 35%. While an electric motor has an

efficiency of over 90%. That's how you win in efficiency over the years and the advancement

of technology!

Then the third point is to use renewable energy (3), by rolling for example electric cars with

energy from the sun.

It is with these 3 levers that some countries already try to reach a new era to embark on a new

economic journey.

22

5 Pillars of the T.I.R.

Concerning the third level, which is switching to renewable energy, we will see in this section

what it necessitates in order to see what it needs to be done in the future to reach a Third

Industrial Era.

According to Jeremy Rifkin, there are 5 pillars which are needed for a Third Industrial

Revolution18

:

1. Shifting to renewable energy

2. Transforming the building stock into micro-power plants to collect

renewable energy on site

3. Deploying hydrogen and other storage technologies in every building and

throughout the infrastructure to store intermittent energies

4. Using Internet technology to transform the power grid into an energy-

sharing intergrid that acts just like internet

5. Transitioning the transport fleet to electric plug-in and fuel cell vehicles

SHIFTING TO RENEWABLE ENERGY

The first pillar is obvious, but what we still don’t know is which source of Renewable Energy

will be dominant. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that solar energy will be

the primary source of global power by 205019

.

TRANSFORMING BUILDING INTO MICRO-POWER PLANTS

The second point is to use every building to create energy locally. For example by putting

solar panels on every roofs or/and a wind turbine.

DEPLOYING HYDROGEN AND OTHER STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES

The third one is to adapt to the intermittent production of renewable energy. For example

solar energy produces only during the day so then we need to stock some of this energy to use

it at night. To do so, one of the solutions is to transform the excess of electricity into

hydrogen, using an electrolysis process. Then this hydrogen created is used at night to

generate electricity.

18

The Third Industrial Revolution by Jeremy Rifkin (p.36) 19

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/iea_predict_solar_will_be_dominant_energy_source_by_2050_genr_22_may

23

USING INTERNET TECHNOLOGY TO TRANSFORM THE POWER GRID

The fourth pillar is concerning the fact that instead of having main power plants we will have

a very important number of power plants. Every micro power plant has to be interconnected.

By doing so, it will allow for example you neighbor who has an excess of electricity

production to sell it directly to you. There is a need for what we call a “smart grid” which will

use digital information and communication technology20

.

TRANSITIONING THE TRANSPORT FLEET

The last one is to switch all transport systems from an oil to an electric system. This has

already been realized for most trains around the world. It is happening to cars thanks to

companies as Tesla. Now more and more car companies started to sell electric car: Nissan,

Renault, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Chevrolet, Citroen etc… It will take a little more time for

trucks and planes to use electric energy but the change will also happen for them.

An European Initiative

In May 2007, the European Parliament passed a formal declaration21

, committing the

legislative body of the twenty-seven member states of the European Union to a Third

Industrial Era. The Europe was deciding to accelerate its Energy Transition for the benefit of

the world and its own.

The objectives to accelerate the transition phase were summarized by the following formula:

20-20-20 by 202022

.

20 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020

20 percent increase in energy efficiency by the same age

20 percent increase in the deployment of renewable energies, again by 2020

If we analyze the decision the European Parliament took, we can see that they decided to use

two of the three levers presented at the beginning of the chapter to accelerate the Energy

transition: Efficiency and Renewable Energy. We can understand this choice of not using the

first lever by the fact that politicians probably wouldn’t affect the quality of life of Europeans

by asking them sobriety.

20

http://www.smartgrids.eu/ 21

European Parliamant. (2007, May 2014). Written declaration Pursuant to Rule 116 22

The Third Industrial Revolution by Jeremy Rifkin (p.64)

24

This decision would put the world’s leading economy far ahead of other nations. It will allow

industries in the field to increase their R&D and sales, creative a competitive advantage for

European companies and news jobs.

European countries would have to use the 5 pillars of Jeremy Rifkin to achieve the 20-20-20

goal by 2020.

For example, the French government has to respect the European objective for its own benefit

creating special laws as the following:

To allow access to more load points of all types of rechargeable electric and hybrid

vehicles, France's objective is the installation, by 2030, of at least seven million charge

points installed in parking lots of all houses and other types of buildings or public

parking space23

(Fifth pillar: transitioning the transport fleet).

Tax reduction for individuals who install solar panels on their roof24

(First and second

pillars).

CONCLUSION PART I:

Numerous countries have seen the advantages of expanding renewable energy use over an

increased use of conventional power plants. The national economic benefits are clear;

conventional plants are often dependent on fossil fuel imports, but if these are replaced by

renewable energy produced locally, then the trade balance and the home economy are less

strained, not to mention the creation of jobs.

Now we understood the economic context and direction that governments are taking and we

will see the impact for the solar energy sector and how the sun can lead this Third Industrial

Era.

23

http://tecsol.blogs.com/files/0_projet_de_loi_relatif_a_la_transition_energetique_pour_la_croissance_verte.pdf 24

http://tecsol.blogs.com/files/0_projet_de_loi_relatif_a_la_transition_energetique_pour_la_croissance_verte.pdf

25

II. The Solution of Solar Power

"Within an hour our planet receives as much solar energy as men consume in coal, oil, gas,

timber, uranium, waterfalls and various other sources in 365 days. A simple observation

derived from this calculation can only leave one dreamer: collecting 0.01% of this solar

energy could dispense the use of fossil or fissile energy" according to Jean-Marc

JANCOVICI, consulting engineer.

In France for example, even if it is a country with a dense population (103,4

inhabitants/km²)25

it would need 1% of the land area for the French electricity generation26

.

In annex 6, you can see the surface of solar collectors needed to provide EU energy

consumption and World Energy consumption. The map of this annex comes from a serious

project of building large scale solar power plant in Sub-Saharan Africa to supply Europe on

electricity.27

To assure better efficiency and security of supply, it would be likely to have local power plant

instead of using sources coming from other continents. We will see how it is possible in this

chapter.

4. The different applications of solar energy

The Different Solar Technologies Applications

There are four main areas for the use of solar energy:

1. Passive solar: by directly exploiting solar radiation through the architecture or the

direction of houses to limit lighting and heating needs. This principle is now widely

used in home design.

2. Active solar: it is mainly the production of low-temperature heat (<100 °) providing

domestic hot water, heat (solar floor heating) or pools and collective solar

applications. Different technologies like solar thermal low temperature can be

considered technologically and industrially mature and close to profitability.

3. The Photovoltaic Solar: Photovoltaic cells exploit the photoelectric effect to produce

current by absorbing solar radiation. This effect allows the cells to directly convert

25

http://economiepolitique.org/densite-de-la-population-des-27-pays-deurope-dont-la-france-3/ 26

http://www.manicore.com/documentation/solaire.html 27

http://www.desertec.org/concept/

26

sunlight (photons) into electricity through a semiconductor material carrying electric

charges.

4. The concentrated solar power (CSP): Provides high temperature by concentrating the

radiation heat. This is generating steam for industrial or power generation with a

turbine.

Utility-scale Solar Power Systems

There are two technologies mentioned above who can produce electricity on a large power

plant: (3) The Photovoltaic Solar and (4) the concentrated Solar Power (CSP).

PV and CSP Power plants

The utility scale of PV is more adapted for cloudy regions (North of Europe e.g.) as it can

produce electricity with indirect irradiance (when it is cloudy). The arrays can be fixed-tilt,

single-axis tracking, or dual-axis tracking. Tracking adds cost but increases overall energy

output.

The CSP needs direct irradiation, it is then more adapted to dry climate as deserts. It has today

the main advantage to produce also energy in the evening. The steam that it produces to make

electricity can been stocked and used few hours later the sun set.

One disadvantage of utility with this scale power plant is that it needs a lot of space which can

be a problem in regions with high density for instance.

Residential and Commercial Building

In order to avoid the waste of space and during the transport of electricity we can use areas to

produce electricity which are today useless: roofs. It has the advantage to produce energy

locally and then avoid losses during the transportation.

The main technologies we saw previously, can be used on roofs but not the CSP technology,

for the moment (some companies are trying to miniaturize the CSP to put it on roofs or next

to the buildings).

27

The main idea is to develop construction materials which produce thermal or electric energy

to replace conventional types as roof tiles for example. Cost analysis should consider: the use

of the components in producing the unit, operation and maintenance costs versus the

production of energy.

It will also allow householders to be self-sufficient by having their own micro power plant at

home. Then when they would not use all the energy they are producing they could sell it to

their neighbors via a “smart grid”.

5. The Recent History of Solar Energy

We are going to analyze in this chapter how the sun, large source of energy, has been used in

the past to understand its actual fast evolution.

A Distant Origin, but a Recent Use

The very first traceable use of the sun was back in the 7th century BC, when man used

crystals to magnify the Sun's rays for starting fires.

Around 300 BC, the Egyptians used mirrors to reflect the light from the Sun into their tombs

to illuminate the way. The reflecting of the Sun's rays with mirrors was also used to light

torches. They also used the sun to dry mummified bodies after they had died, and built houses

which trapped the Sun's heat, allow for lower day time and higher night time temperatures. It

is believed that the Egyptians also used a form of passive solar power to heat water.

It is believed that the Greeks, led by Archimedes, used large bronze shields to set Roman

ships alight in the battle at Syracuse in 212 BC, although there is no solid proof.

Between 1000 AD and 1400 AD, Native Americans were known to build houses on cliffs,

positioned and designed to allow trapping of heat during the day and release at night.

The very first recorded Solar Collector was made in 1767 by Swiss inventor Horace de

Soussare. He made a rectangular box, which he insulated and covered with glass. He placed

two smaller boxes inside and put it out in the sun. The bottom box heated up over 100 degrees

C. This is now known as a hotbox and was used throughout the 18th and 19th centuries to test

how much of the sun's heat could be trapped.

28

The first person to observe the Photovoltaic Effect, in 1839, was French physicist Edmond

Becquerei, although he did not fully understand the principle. In 1861, Auguste Mouchet

manufactured the first solar powered motor, which ran on steam.

The first solar PV cells were made in the 1880's and had an efficiency of around 2%. In 1891,

the first commercially viable Solar Geyser was patented. It comprised of a copper tank

painted black, and was set at an angle to obtain the optimal heat.

Aubrey Eneas opened the first solar company in Boston, US, in 1900 and called it The Solar

Motor Co. William J. Bailley invented a solar collector in 1908, which comprised of copper

coils feeding an insulated box. This is very similar to the ones used today.

Though John Ericsson invented the parabolic trough in the 1870's, the first traceable use of

them was in 1912, when Frank Schuman set up a farm of troughs for a small community in

Meadi, Egypt. They were used to create steam which powered a steam generator, which in

turn powered a water pump, providing the community with 6000 gallons of water per minute.

Following his success with the invention, Schuman planned to build 20,250 square miles of

parabolic troughs, enough to provide 270 million horse-powers; enough power to provide the

whole planet at that time. He had much support, and was granted 200 000 Deutschmarks to

support his venture. World War 1 broke out, though, and changed everything. Schuman died

before the war ended, and Germany lost its African colonies, leaving no chance of going on

with the project. The basic design of parabolic troughs has not changed since its invention,

and it remains one of the most efficient forms of solar energy today.

A process used to make very pure crystalline silicon, known as the Czochralski meter, was

developed in the early 1950's. In 1954, Bell Telephone Laboratories invented a 4% efficient

photovoltaic solar panel, later improving it to 11% efficiency. A small US satellite was

powered by a cell producing less than one watt in 1958. In 1970, Elliot Burman developed

solar cells which were significantly less costly, reducing the price from $100 to $20 per watt,

and then in 1973/4 the oil embargo allowed the solar industry to grow, with the US

Department of Energy funding the Federal Photovoltaic Utilization Program, allowing the

testing and installation of over 3000 PV systems.

In 1976, David Carlson and Christopher Wronski manufactured the first amorphous solar

panel. Approximately 1.2 billion homes were using Solar Geysers by the 1990's; it was

becoming more and more popular. In 2005, thin film solar modules were invented by

Professor Vivian Alberts from South Africa.

29

Today the solar industry is flourishing, and is rapidly becoming a part of everyday life. With

the effects of global warming becoming more noticeable and the depleting of oil wells and

coal mines, we are becoming more and more dependent on renewable energy. It will certainly

play a huge role in the future as people look to become more self-sustainable28

.

Development Actors of Solar Energies

Despite a long history of the solar energy it is in the last decades that this source of energy

started to be used in a large scale.

It started in the 80s with the use of thermal solar collectors for Domestic Hot Water (DHW).

Flat-plate and evacuated-tube solar collectors are used to collect heat for space heating, DHW

or cooling with an absorption chiller.

In 2011, there were 333 Million squares meters of solar collectors worldwide mainly installed

on roof tops. It is the equivalent in term of surface of 45,830 football stadiums. It produces

233 GW, the equivalent of 155 nuclear power plants29

.

65,3% of the solar thermal collectors are used in China, as you can see in annex 7. For

households, it is sometimes the only solution to have warm water, due to the fact that the sun

is a free source of energy that everybody can get on the top of their roof.

Despite a low level of irradiation Germany has also developed a lot solar energy and is also

one of the main actors in the development of solar technologies. They installed mainly PV

and solar thermal technology.

Spain and USA are also using much this free energy, with PV, solar thermal and also CSP.

Then others countries as Turkey, Portugal, Greece and France have developed the use of these

technologies.

Some other countries are today doing the same as Chili, Brazil, Morocco etc…

A Downturn

With the influx of PV around 2005, the installation of solar thermal has tended to stagnate.

PV was a great success due to the feed in tariff. Many governments have decided to put high

price redemption to encourage the development of this technology.

28

Extracted from this section: http://www.solarpowerstore.co.za/articles/history-of-solar-energy.html 29

http://futura24.voila.net/nucle/react_france.htm

30

However in recent years the tariffs have fallen sharply which greatly slowed the massive

development of this technology (in Europe, Australia etc..). This decision is due to the

economic crisis in Europe and also to the fact that the panels were more and more made in

China which no longer promoted local economic development in Europe.

With the arrival of PV, Solar thermal started to be seen as an old technology, whereas these

two are complementary: one producing hot water and the other one electricity. The aesthetic

factor has also worked against solar thermal because PV has better visual appearance.

The economic crisis that began in 2008 has generally slowed the process of transition to the

Third Industrial Era but it only delayed it. Today, the solar industry has to overcome new

challenges to adapt to today's problems and become competitive to conventional energies.

To do so, it will have to find a model more sustainable than it was. We will see in the next

chapter how it can overcome the obstacles, difficulties and problems that are being

encountered.

6. Towards a Sustainable Model for Solar Energy

The most obvious advantage is that solar energy is free. Sunshine is free and equally available

for everyone in a given location. There is no fuel cost to cover, no price volatility or supply

shortage issues.

The Second advantage of solar energy is its predictability. The generation of solar energy is

reliable and predictable. Based on weather data the production can be accurately planned.

Also, most of energy consumption occurs during daytime, when solar energy is generated30

.

The Levelized Cost of Energy

Sunshine is free and available everywhere but the system to collect it has a cost. Then you

have a fixed price of energy during all the life time of the system. It can only be alerted by the

maintenance but it may also be possible to contract maintenance.

In some countries around the world solar energy has reached grid parity. It occurs when an

alternative energy source can generate electricity at a cost that is less or equal to the price of

purchasing power from the electricity grid. We call it the Levelized Cost Of Energy

(LCOE)31

.

30

http://www.hienergypeople.com/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-solar-energy/ 31

http://www.renewable-energy-advisors.com/learn-more-2/what-is-grid-parity/

31

The LCOE includes all the costs over the system lifetime: initial investment, operations and

maintenance, cost of fuel, cost of capital and the production of the energy system:

LCOE (€/kWh) = System lifetime costs (Capital + Finance + Operation and Maintenance)

System lifetime benefits (kilowatt hours)

Typically LCOE is calculated to have a lifetime of 20 to 40 years, and is given in the units of

currency per kilowatt-hour, for example $/kWh or EUR/kWh or per megawatt-hour32

The “system lifetime benefits” in the units of kWh will be the production of the system. It is

calculated by multiplying the local solar irradiation (in kWh/m²/year) by the surface of the

collector by the system efficiency.

In annex 8, you can have an overview of the LCOE of PV in Europe until 2020. You have

different curves to consider the different levels of irradiation between European countries.

Some regions are more privileged than others, but globally there are no big differences as you

can see in the annex.

In order to be competitive to convince more and more people, the LCOE has to be as low as

possible. To do so, companies have two levers based on the formula we saw previously:

1. Decrease the cost of their solar product

2. Increase the efficiency.

Lower the Cost of the Energy System

Companies need to get the lower LCOE to be competitive and convince investors. To do this

they can decrease theirs products prices and/or the installation cost.

The first solution is to use cheaper materials for instance. They can also think about an

evolution of their system to make it more simple or to use standard material made in a large

scale. Another solution is to produce it in a country with a low labor cost.

The second one is also very important because it represents generally the most important cost

for the customer and therefore has an important impact on the LCOE.

Solar panels account for only 20 percent of the overall cost of a system. The rest includes the

cost of electricians to install the panels and hardware to connect the systems to the grid. That

is the reason why companies are always looking for the easiest and fastest system. Let has

take the example of Easy Roof’s company. They create a new system to install PV panels on

32

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source

32

the roof which really revolutionize the installation of solar panel in France by making it really

simple.

Increase of efficiency

As we saw in the LCOE formula the second lever to increase the competitiveness of solar

systems is by increasing efficiency, to increase the system lifetime production.

However, by doing so it is important to keep in mind than an increase of efficiency is useless

if it will higher the cost of the energy system. Therefore, there are two approaches possible:

• To pursue the high-efficiency route while reducing the module cost;

• To produce a solar cell as cheaply as possible, because even if it has a low conversion

efficiency, it will still be a low-cost way to produce electricity.

CONCLUSION PART II:

Despite a necessary readjustment of the energy solar industry which will have to make it more

and more without the feed in tariff, companies are likely to propose solar solutions more

competitive to convince more and more customers. In this way they are going towards a

sustainable model for the solar industry.

With the end of feed in tariffs the PV shifted to a new model. It will now flourish under the

principle of a closer consumption, in the territories and local loop neighborhoods or even on

roofs or in gardens.

Technologies are now mature but there is still a lot to do before replacing every roof titles by

solar panels. However, in a few decades we will probably see more solar panels on roofs well

exposed to the sun, than the passive roofing element we have today.

33

III. The Role of Solar Energy in the Upcoming Third

Industrial Era

7. The Energy Transitions

There is not "A model for Energy Transition" that each country will follow at different times

and different rates. There are and there will be several models of Energy Transitions,

following political choices of society, and geography. Each country will create and implement

its own transition.

Unlike the first and second industrial revolution, every country in the world will not be based

on a single energy source. There will be a high energy mix. When the IEA predicts that solar

energy will be the primary source of global power by 2050, they specify that it will be

“globally”.

For example, a country like Denmark which has chosen a high use of wind power because the

climate was much more likely for such a use. So this is definitely the energy that will

dominate the Danish energy mix.

Each government serves different purposes: economic, political, competitive, safety of the

population, security of supply etc...

The German transition guided by a rejection of nuclear and pro-renewable conviction, accepts

(or allows) a period of heavy use of coal to not penalize its industry. Therefore, the expenses

for net imports of fossil energy sources to Germany have increased by 400% between 1998

und 2013 as you can see in annex 9. With more than 90 billion €, Germany spends more on

fossil energy imports than on the market introduction of renewable energy or energy saving

programs33

.

There Saudi transition, based on the economy, investing in nuclear and solar to reduce

domestic use of oil (where it is sold at a loss)...

Brazilian transition started several decades ago with a widespread use of biofuels to power

cars and a high proportion of hydropower which are also renewable energies.

33

http://www.volker-quaschning.de/graphs/2014-05_Energieimporte/index.php

34

China is already the world’s largest oil importer34

, and energy demand continues to increase

rapidly. As a result, energy security has become a serious issue. In this context, China is now

the world’s largest investor in clean energy, with a record $68 billion channelled towards

renewable energy development in 2012 and another $54 billion last year35

. They chose to

invest in solar energy. The $ 147 billion mobilized in 2011 were up 52% over 2010, and are

nearly the double of investments in wind power36

.

France rather designed a diversified transition which includes solar, wind and hydro sources

of energy. This allows spreading productions facilitating storage, and avoiding shortages.

The examples are endless.

The Enerdata study on the global energy mix in 2013 shows the divergent points of view.

While in the European Union renewables energies became the primary source of electricity

generation in 2013, the G20 had a growth of coal in its energy mix. Between 2000 and 2013,

the part of carbon-free energy sources (renewable and nuclear) of the top 20 world economies

decreased from 18 to 17%. At the same time, the European Union outperformed in the

reduction of CO2 emissions37

.

The choice of a radical change, accelerated towards renewable energy is expensive for a

country; in terms of financial investment to install the new structures that will produce

carbon-free electricity. This will increase the price of electricity; renewable energies are

generally not competitive compared to the facilities of the second industrial revolution that

needed one century to be improved. The technological development of renewable energy to

improve efficiency and the price, will take time. As any technology it cannot be ready

overnight. Countries, however, which choose to accelerate the energy transition will lead to

an industry that it will then have a major competitive advantage over other countries. They

will export their know-how to all the countries that are doing the transition to a Third

Industrial Age, later.

We can see that energy transitions are very diverse, but there is also a shared desire to get out

of the age of oil to keep its economy afloat. These transitions, as is the case of Germany and

many other countries, may not be radical to 100% renewable energy because it would cost too

much for the moment.

34

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15531 35

http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/how-china-became-climate-leader/ 36

http://www.latribune.fr/green-business/l-actualite/20120611trib000703289/la-chine-premier-investisseur-

mondial-en-energie-renouvelable.html 37

http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/la-transition-energetique-ca-n-existe-pas.N265877

35

Just as the sun cannot be the best solution for all countries of the world, still it will certainly

be the energy source that best matches with most countries need.

8. The Consequences for Solar Energy Industry

The solar energy market

There are three generic market opportunities for solar in coming years:

1. Replacement of diesel and kerosene consumption used for power generation, heat or

light. This is largely an off-grid opportunity where solar can displace trucked diesel in

for example Chilean copper mines or isolated islands with Resorts, in Philippines

(e.g.), or diesel or kerosene used for heating, power and cooking throughout India,

Africa and much of the developing world. With the decline in installed cost for solar

power energy in recent years, this is now a stand-alone unsubsidized end market of

considerable scale. Compared to kerosene at a price of about 0.30 €/kWh, solar is

already very competitive with a price of about 3 or 4 times less.

2. There is also a mass market, in countries with a high price of electricity, which already

have a grid parity. You can see them in green in the Annex 10.

Without subsidies, solar PV is cheaper than other sources of electricity for more than 4

billion people worldwide38

(it represents the two markets described above)39

.

3. Countries without grid parity but with a high policy intention to develop through

subsidies or regulations for buildings. France is an example, with a very low price of

electricity solar is not competitive. However, there are very strict rules for the

constructions. Therefore new buildings need to have a very low impact on the

environment for example.

Large Amount of New Jobs

In front of the energy ministers from 23 countries in Seoul, the International Agency for

Renewable Energies (IRENA) announced, in May 2014, the renewable energy sector “is not

only a Niche but became a significant employer in the world”. According to the 2014 report

38

http://tecsol.blogs.com/mon_weblog/2014/08/dans-les-echos-daujourdhui-pour-la-moiti%C3%A9-de-

lhumanit%C3%A9-le-solaire-est-l%C3%A9nergie-la-moins-

ch%C3%A8re.html?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_campaign=0&utm_content=19

3437

36

of the institution, this sector accounted for the end of 2013 nearly 6.5 million jobs in the

world.

"While renewable energies (wind, solar, biomass, hydro ...) are growing around the world,

most jobs are concentrated in a very small number of countries," after the IRENA. Among

them is China (2.6 million), which is ahead of Brazil (0.89 million) and the United States

(0.62 million). Europe has a total of 1.24 million jobs in the sector: 0.37 million in Germany

and 0.11 million in Spain. The Agency estimates that 7,000 jobs have not been staffed in

2013, in Europe.

The solar sector represents the largest amount of jobs in 2013 as you can see on the image

below.

Number of jobs in the Renewable Energy Sector in 2013 (Source: IRENA)

Therefore, today the idea that addressing climate change is bad for business is buried

37

9. The Future of Solar Energy

News solar technologies are going to be developed in order to harness as much sun as

possible. In this chapter some new technologies which are currently developing are

mentioned. They will help to collect the 0.01% of the total solar energy we need to dispense

the use of fossil fuel energy, according to Jean-Marc JANCOVICI.

Developing solar construction materials to replace conventional types

The construction market will have a main role to play in the development of solar energy and

it has several advantages:

1. Use a surface which was unused

2. Become not only country independent regarding their supply of energy but also

individual person: everyone is able to have its own power plant at home.

3. Produce energy locally and then decrease transport losses

Classical PV and Thermal will continue to have a main role on the construction market.

Financially speaking, It will soon be more interesting to cover a roof with solar panels than

with roof titles (it is already the case in some countries). A thermal solar collector all over the

roof surface can almost assure all the heat a house needs in winter.

SRS Energy’s company has developed a PV roof title to cover your roof with PV panels

which look like roof titles. It allows homeowners to go solar without sacrificing style.

PV Roof titles developed by SRS Energy

New solution will start to be installed and we will try to convert as much sunlight as we can,

for example by putting solar panels on car parks. We can then plug directly an electric car on

it.

38

« CLIPS'ABRI » of CLIPSOL’s company with an Electric car

A new solution is the mix of PV and T solar panels: a hybrid solar panel PV-T. It produces

simultaneously electricity (photovoltaic) and hot water (solar thermal) for homes and

buildings.

As a matter of fact, PVT products suit a wide range of applications and market sectors.

Customers may include not only homeowners (for small-scale family applications), but also

for larger scale, the property developers, housing authorities, companies, owners of recreation

and sports centers, public swimming pools, camping sites, hospitals and hotels. For large

buildings a heat pump can be added to the hybrid panel system and increase notably the

efficiency of all the system.

The high energy output per unit collector area is definitely an advantage coming to low-

energy building design in which the sun-facing areas should be fully made use of.

In order to go in this direction there are new technologies which are currently developing. Let

us take the example of a Transparent Panel.

A succession of thin layers, including a clear coating that enables windows to safely carry

electricity and a semi transparent layer of chemicals that absorb light and create electricity,

are applied to glass. The electricity generated is then used to help power the building and

appliances. Wysips® Glass technology currently produces a transparent, rigid, photovoltaic

component with a yield of 30 Watt/m² and 70-90% transparency. These components are then

integrated into the glass panes. The processes used depend on their end-use in construction or

renovation.

39

It still has a low efficiency (about 3%) and a high price but a technology cannot be ready

overnight.

A micro CSP

Another technology to produce power locally is to miniaturize CSP. With a small turbine or

steam engine it can produce electricity but at the same time also producing hot water. The

CSP requires a tracker to follow the sun. It can have a very high efficiency. We can imagine

putting this system on the flat roof of a building or in house’s gardens. It is also possible to

put few of them in a field next to a district to provide electricity and DHW.

Offshore Photovoltaic system

Solar panels floating on water surface, lake or sea can provides cheaper electricity and better

use of the land area.

Solar panels located on water surfaces have the advantage that they can be easily moved

according to the sun’s movements and also prevent the water cells from getting too hot. A

third advantage is that the water temperature is more constant than air temperature. A

prototype of one hundred meters is already being tested in Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf.

New Economic Models

In order to help at the development of new infrastructures, new economic models have being

developed and new ones are expected to appear. It will help to finance new renewable energy

power plant.

One of the solutions is to let people invest in solar energy and become providers of electricity.

It was mainly used by the companies’ energy in countries with feed in tariff. With this model

companies will not have to support the investment and the risk for a new power plant, it will

be assumed by the owner of the roof.

Another solution has been implemented by the American company SolarCity. It is a new

approach to financing solar panels. SolarCity designs, installs, and maintains solar-energy

systems fitted to homeowners’ roofs. Instead of asking for a big upfront payment, it leases the

systems. As the panels produce power, surplus electricity is sold back to the local utility.

Combined with the savings that come from using less power from the grid, this will typically

reduce the homeowner’s electric bill enough to offset the lease payments. The company will

assume total cost of the investment, meaning that the homeowner’s roof does not have to

invest any amount of money to put solar panel on its roof.

40

CONCLUSION

There is no one solution, but a mix of solutions to move on a new economic model which

allows economic growth and progress to go along. Today technological advances give us the

opportunity to reconcile the two.

Nowadays, most of Governments took into consideration that we must pass through an

Industrial Revolution which will brings us in a new economic paradigm and a post-carbon era.

The real question is: Are we going to make it on time?

The difficult task is to increase the awareness of the public, and to lead them in this direction.

They will benefit from it: economic growth, creation of new jobs, air quality improvement,

sustainable economy, energy independence etc...

The move towards a Third Industrial Era does not depend on political, but it is the policy that

will accelerate or not the transitions that every country is going to pass through.

Transitions will take time, as coal and oil became slowly one of the dominant energy.

The solar energy still accounts for barely 1% of global production capacity of world

electricity (wind turbine weighs about 2%). The potential development of the Solar Industry is

immense. The installation of solar energy continues to accelerate, but only 5% of the total

electricity generated in ten years is predicted to come from the sun.

If the storage of electricity is increasing, it would encourage more photovoltaic. However it is

much the awareness of people and their capacity to change that will accelerate the entry into a

post Carbon era. The technology is already set.

The giant companies of tomorrow are still unknown, but they are emerging slowly.

Fossil fuels are not going to be exploited until they are no longer available but until they

become too expensive compared to renewable energies.

41

Annexes

42

Annex 1: The composition of US energy (Source : CHE Energy)

Annex 2: Composition of the European Electricity Mix

43

Annex 3: Link between Oil Price (bleu), Unemployment OECD (green) and

OECD Growth (Source : Jean-Marc JANCOVICI blog)

Annex 4: Variation of Oil’s Price

Sources: Energy Information Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics

44

Annex 5 : Industry Comparison (source : PwC)

Annex 6: Surface needed to provide EU and World Energy consumption (Source:

Desertec.org)

45

Annex 7: Worldwide Distribution of Solar Thermal Collector

Annex 8: European PV LCOE range projection from 2010 to 2020

46

Annex 9: Import expenses for fossil energy sources in Germany

Annex 10 : Countries where solar is competitive versus Fossil Fuels