www.angelbroking.com Market Outlook June 29, 2016 Market Cues Indian markets are expected to open in green tracing SGX Nifty and Global cues. US markets closed more than 1.5% up yesterday, lifted by gains in oil prices, as investors looked for bargains post the Brexit sell-off. Analysts also pointed to improvement in sentiment after initial fears of significant negative spillover from the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. Energy gained over 2.6% and financials closed nearly 2.5% higher to lead all S&P sectors higher. After 2 days of turmoil in the wake of Brexit vote, European Markets eased as most of the indices rose by ~2% at yesterday’s close. Recovery at FTSE was seen mostly across sectors that had been hit the most in last 2 trading sessions, i.e. Banks, Property & Airline stocks. Shares of gold miners, which performed well on Monday were amongst the biggest losers as Gold prices weekened. Indian indices gained strength in last couple of hours of trade on Tuesday, as most of their European counterparts were up by ~2%. FMCG and HDFC Group stocks led the support to market. Broader markets also participated in the rally as BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were up 0.5-0.8%. News Analysis ITC to invest `4,000cr to set up to 9 plants Pay panel award likely today Detailed analysis on Pg2 Investor’s Ready Reckoner Key Domestic & Global Indicators Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks Refer Pg6 onwards Top Picks Company Sector Rating CMP (`) Target (`) Upside (%) Amara Raja Auto/Auto Ancillary Buy 862 1,076 24.9 HCL Tech IT Buy 713 1,000 40.2 LIC Housing Financials Buy 498 592 18.9 Bharat Electronics Capital Goods Accumulate 1,249 1,414 13.2 Navkar Corporation Others Buy 219 265 21.1 More Top Picks on Pg4 Key Upcoming Events Date Region Event Description Previous Reading Consensus Expectations June 29 US Initial Jobless claims 259.0 267.0 June 30 Euro zone Euro zone Consumer Confidence (7.3) (7.3) June 30 UK PMI Manufacturing 50.1 50.1 July 01 UK GDP (YoY) 2.1 2.0 6.( More Events on Pg5 Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) BSE Sensex 0.5 122 26,525 Nifty 0.4 33 8,128 Mid Cap 0.5 55 11,459 Small Cap 0.8 90 11,540 Bankex 0.3 61 20,090 Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close) Dow Jones 1.6 269 17,410 Nasdaq 2.1 97 4,692 FTSE 2.6 158 6,140 Nikkei 0.1 14 15,323 Hang Seng (0.3) (55) 20,172 Shanghai Com 0.6 17 2,913 Advances / Declines BSE NSE Advances 1,610 1,043 Declines 1,010 530 Unchanged 180 66 Volumes (` Cr) BSE 2,635 NSE 17,067 Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd FII (69) 3,763 18,132 MFs 298 633 10,064 Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%) Deltacorp 98 9.4 Adanient 81 7.9 Punjlloyd 21 7.3 Godrejprop 359 7.2 Gmdcltd 76 6.8 Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%) Mphasis 574 (3.9) Justdial 600 (3.8) Iifl 220 (3.4) Renuka 17 (3.4) Aloktext 4 (3.1) As on June 28, 2016
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Market Outlook
June 29, 2016
Market Cues
Indian markets are expected to open in green tracing SGX Nifty and Global cues.
US markets closed more than 1.5% up yesterday, lifted by gains in oil prices, as
investors looked for bargains post the Brexit sell-off. Analysts also pointed to
improvement in sentiment after initial fears of significant negative spillover from the
U.K. vote to leave the European Union. Energy gained over 2.6% and financials
closed nearly 2.5% higher to lead all S&P sectors higher.
After 2 days of turmoil in the wake of Brexit vote, European Markets eased as most
of the indices rose by ~2% at yesterday’s close. Recovery at FTSE was seen mostly
across sectors that had been hit the most in last 2 trading sessions, i.e. Banks,
Property & Airline stocks. Shares of gold miners, which performed well on Monday
were amongst the biggest losers as Gold prices weekened.
Indian indices gained strength in last couple of hours of trade on Tuesday, as most
of their European counterparts were up by ~2%. FMCG and HDFC Group stocks led
the support to market. Broader markets also participated in the rally as BSE Midcap
and Smallcap indices were up 0.5-0.8%.
News Analysis
ITC to invest `4,000cr to set up to 9 plants
Pay panel award likely today
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg6 onwards
Top Picks
Company Sector Rating CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%)
Amara Raja Auto/Auto Ancillary Buy 862 1,076 24.9
HCL Tech IT Buy 713 1,000 40.2
LIC Housing Financials Buy 498 592 18.9
Bharat Electronics Capital Goods Accumulate 1,249 1,414 13.2
Navkar Corporation Others Buy 219 265 21.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
Key Upcoming Events
Date Region Event Description
Previous
Reading
Consensus
Expectations
June 29 US Initial Jobless claims 259.0 267.0
June 30 Euro zone Euro zone Consumer Confidence (7.3) (7.3)
June 30 UK PMI Manufacturing 50.1 50.1
July 01 UK GDP (YoY) 2.1 2.0
6.(
More Events on Pg5
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.5 122 26,525
Nifty 0.4 33 8,128
Mid Cap 0.5 55 11,459
Small Cap 0.8 90 11,540
Bankex 0.3 61 20,090
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 1.6 269 17,410
Nasdaq 2.1 97 4,692
FTSE 2.6 158 6,140
Nikkei 0.1 14 15,323
Hang Seng (0.3) (55) 20,172
Shanghai Com 0.6 17 2,913
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,610 1,043
Declines 1,010 530
Unchanged 180 66
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE 2,635
NSE 17,067
Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd
FII (69) 3,763 18,132
MFs 298 633 10,064
Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%)
Deltacorp 98 9.4
Adanient 81 7.9
Punjlloyd 21 7.3
Godrejprop 359 7.2
Gmdcltd 76 6.8
Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%)
Mphasis 574 (3.9)
Justdial 600 (3.8)
Iifl 220 (3.4)
Renuka 17 (3.4)
Aloktext 4 (3.1)
As on June 28, 2016
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Market Outlook
June 29, 2016
ITC to invest `4,000cr to set up to 9 plants
ITC has announced that it will invest `4,000cr over the next 23 years to set up 89
factories across the country towards manufacture of Food Products. ITC's branded
packaged foods division grew by ~11% to clock sales of `7,097cr in FY2016.
Food is the second largest business for ITC after cigarettes. ITC recently expanded
its new Sunfeast Farmlite biscuits portfolio, which caters to the health conscious
consumers, and is looking to tap this fast growing consumer segment. Health
segment of the biscuit market is ~1% of industry now, but is the fastest growing
segment. Management highlighted that their approach is to have a full portfolio
across the segments, as they see this as a big play panning out within the segment,
going forward.
In order to avoid any product quality issues, management claims that the health
benefits are validated by their in-house labs and research centre based at
Bengaluru. The company had recently launched Sugar release control Aashirvaad
Atta for people who have sugar issue, where the claim is backed by in-house lab.
Sunfeast Farmlite biscuits also have multiple variants in Oats range (Oats with
Almonds, Oats with Raisins and Oats with Chocolate). The company entered into
dairy segment with Ghee in October last year and launched dairy whitener in
North East this month. The company is claiming to test waters with all the products
at the pan India level in the long-run.
The proposed capex, recent product launches when coupled with wide distribution
network augurs well for ITC’s long-term growth prospects. We maintain
ACCUMULATE rating on the stock with price target of `380.
Pay panel award likely today
Union Cabinet is expected to consider recommendations of 7th Pay Commission
today. 7th Pay Commission announced 23.55% increase in pay and allowances of
serving central government employees and 24% increase in pension of the retired
officers (over 1cr government employees and pensioners would get benefitted).
Pay panel in Nov-15 recommended 14.27% hike in Basic pay at junior levels,
lowest in last 70 years. The previous 6th Pay Commission recommended 20% hike
which the government doubled while implementing it in 2008. After considering
the increase proposed in allowances, the hike in remunerations comes to 23.55%.
Committee of Secretaries, which is tasked with reviewing the recommendations,
has given its report and post implementation of such hike from Jan 1, 2016, the
total outgo is pegged at `1.02lakh cr.
This announcement in the backdrop of expected strong monsoons, in our view
could boost consumer demand, thereby benefitting most of the consumption and
consumer discretionary related companies.
We expect companies like Bluestar, Voltas, Bajaj Electrical to be the key
beneficiaries from any such announcement. We continue to maintain BUY rating
on these 3 stocks.
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Market Outlook
June 29, 2016
Economic and Political News
Centre spends 22% more on MGNREGS in FY16
Govt procures 1.19 lakh tn of pulses to cool prices
Apparel export may fall 5% on global slowdown
Corporate News
SBI to sell non-core assets to raise `3k cr United Bank gets shareholders' nod to raise `1,000cr
Mumbai Metro faces financial crisis
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Market Outlook June 29, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap Company Market Cap
(` Cr) CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Amara Raja Batteries 14,717 862 1,076 24.9 To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological products leading to market share gains in both the automotive OEM and replacement segments.
Bharat Electronics 29,974 1,249 1,414 13.2 Uptick in defense capex by government, coupled with BELs strong market positioning, indicate good times ahead for BEL.
HCL Tech 1,00,643 713 1,000 40.2 Stock is trading at attractive valuations & factors all bad news.
HDFC Bank 2,95,669 1,168 1,262 8.1 Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Infosys 2,66,687 1,161 1,374 18.3 Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14% to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LIC Housing Finance 25,115 498 592 18.9 Continues to grow its retail loan book at healthy pace with improvement in asset quality. Expect LICHF to post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong earnings growth.
NBCC 11,550 193 220 14.3 Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
Voltas 10,378 314 407 29.8 Strong market positioning within the domestic AC markets to continue, EMP business set to revive
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap Company Market Cap
(` Cr) CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Bajaj Electricals 2,240 222 268 20.9 Among the top 4 players in the consumer durables segment. Improved profitability backed by turn around in E&P segment. Strong order book lends earnings visibility.
Blue Star 3,778 420 495 17.9 Favourable outlook for AC industry to augur well for Cooling products business. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once operating environment turns around.
Dewan Housing 5,897 202 270 33.6 With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI) consumer segment, the company has increased its presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth opportunity is immense.
Equitas Holdings 5,706 170 235 38.1 Strong loan growth backed by diversified loan portfolio and adequate CAR. ROE & ROA likely to remain decent as risk of dilution remains low. Attractive valuations considering growth.
IL&FS Transport 2,415 73 93 26.7 Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate cycle, to lead to stock re-rating
Jagran Prakashan 5,526 169 205 21.3
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising & circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue growth.
Mahindra Lifespace 1,857 453 554 22.4 Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibility in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Navkar Corporation 3,120 219 265 21.1 Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD as well CFS augurs well for the company
Radico Khaitan 1,218 92 125 36.5 Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers provides additional comfort
Siyaram Silk Mills 1,006 1,073 1,347 25.5 Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
June 29, 2016
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Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Jun 29, 2016 6:00 PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jun 25 259.00 267.00
Jun 30, 2016 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jun F -7.30 (7.30)
1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jun -11.00 (5.00)
2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 50.10 50.10
Jul 01, 2016 2:00 PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F 2.10 2.00
1:25 PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jun F 54.40 54.40
6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 50.10 12:00 AM
July 05, 2016 1:25 PM Germany PMI Services Value Jun F 53.20
July 07, 2016 2:00 PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change May 1.60
Jul 08, 2016
India Imports YoY% % Change Jun -13.20
India Exports YoY% % Change Jun -0.80
6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jun 38.00 180.00
6:00 PM US Unnemployment rate % Jun 4.70 4.80
Jul 10, 2016 7:00 AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jun 2.00 1.90
Jul 12, 2016 5:30 PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change May (0.80)
Jul 13, 2016 4:30 PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jul 14 0.50
Jul 14, 2016
China Exports YoY% % Change Jun (4.10)
US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Jun 0.50
12:00 PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jun 0.79
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 28, 2016
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June 29, 2016
Stock Watch
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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