Top Banner
An Analysis of MAGLEV as a prospective Primary Means of Inter-City Transport in India by 2030 Prateek Biswas Working Paper 01 Manipal Institute of Technology, Manipal [email protected] March 2014 ©2014 by Prateek Biswas. All rights reserved.
14

Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

May 14, 2015

Download

Technology

Prateek Biswas

An Analysis of MAGLEV as a prospective Primary Means of
Inter-City Transport in India by 2030

Working Paper 01
Prateek Biswas
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

An Analysis of MAGLEV as a prospective Primary Means of

Inter-City Transport in India by 2030

Prateek Biswas

Working Paper 01

Manipal Institute of Technology, Manipal

[email protected]

March 2014

©2014 by Prateek Biswas. All rights reserved.

Page 2: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

ABSTRACT

New technology has always been designed with a purpose of improving an existing system by

building a new system, with a new framework, on its own area of operation. But what if the new

yet fully-tested technology sets out to replace the previous technology on a scale never seen

before. Are the risks acceptable.

MAGLEV, with its radical engineering system utilizing conducting magnets as a means of train

levitation and propulsion at cruise speeds of 500 kmph is this new technology. The core

fundamental behind the adoption of the MAGLEV Transportation system onto the current Indian

Rail network is to bring a new age of a Fast, Environmentally Clean and Financially Lucrative

Train grid that will not only replace the current Indian Diesel/Electric Trains but also replace

Domestic Flights as the primary medium for Inter-City Commercial Travel.

In particular, this paper will analyze the improvements in MAGLEV in the last 30 years and

discuss its technical and more importantly, economic merits over Conventional High Speed Rail

as a viable option for a future upgrade of the Indian Rail network.

© 2014 by Prateek Biswas

All Rights Reserved

Page 3: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

I. A Basic Introduction to the MAGLEV Technology and its Present Development

MAGLEV or Magnetic Levitation is a method of propulsion, which differs from standard ground

methods of transportation in a manner that it does not use friction as its means of required

driving force.

A typical MAGLEV system consists of Guidance Magnets on the underside of the Train (that

may be super-cooled depending on the system) and a separate set of Guidance and Propulsion

Coils on the track itself used to propel the train forward. The Guidance Coils on the track repel

the magnets on the train, allowing it to levitate upto a height of 1-10cm. Once the train is

levitated, an alternating current is passed to subsequent Propulsion coils causing the train to be

pushed forward by backward coils by repulsion and pulled forward by the forward coils by

attraction at the same time.

Because of the non-reliance of traction for this system, and the fact that MAGLEV trains levitate

on a cushion of air, the trains are capable of accelerating and decelerating much faster.

Currently, the only tested and in use/planned for commercial use MAGLEV systems are the

EMS (Electromagnetic Suspension) and EDS (Electrodynamic Suspension). Let us discuss the

difference in core technologies as well the resulting commercial applications for each.

EMS

In the EMS system, electronically controlled electromagnets under the train attract and repel it to

the steel track underneath. The C-shape of the Train undercarriage and the T-shape of the track

complement each other perfectly to ensure a uniform levitation height. The EMS system can be

used to levitate the train at all speeds, even at standstill.

The inherent flaw with this system is that magnetic attraction theoretically varies inversely with

the cube of the distance. With small variations in the distance between the train and track due to

vibrations, the attraction forces vary by a large amount. This dynamic instability has been solved

by complex feedback systems which have managed to maintain very high tolerances for

operation.

This system has been commercially used in the Shanghai TransRapid network since 2004 and

has worked without a glitch for the last 8 years apart from a single fire incident in 2006 caused

by faulty electrical wiring.

Page 4: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

EDS

The EDS system as compared to EMS system, utilizes superconducting magnets, supercooled by

cryogenic coils. This requires a higher level of operational maintenance as compared to EMS. As

compared to EMS system, here both the guide way and the train exert magnetic fields, and the

combination of attraction and repulsion reactions cause the train to levitate, with a principle that

is free of dynamic instability, removing the need for complex feedback system. For propulsion,

the attractive and reactive forces generated by the sidewalls cause the train to accelerate.

The main differentiating factor in the EDS system is that the magnetic flux from its super-

conducting magnets is not strong enough to support the train at standstill and hence, a provision

for a secondary rubber wheel system for speeds less than 100kmph is made. In practical

applications, the development of advanced rubber compounds free of wear and tear has made

this added inconvenience insignificant.

The EDS system has been currently approved for construction in the Chuo-Shinkansen line in

Japan, connecting Tokyo and Osaka, Japan’s largest ports, by 2030. The economic savings for

the cities by this system is accounted to be around US$ 100 Billion for the first 50 years of its

operation, completely recompensing the Capital Cost.

The development and commercialization of the MAGLEV system has been for 2 purposes:

1. The replacement of Low Speed Rail as the Primary network for low-cost Inter-City travel

and the replacement of High Speed Rail (hereby designated as HS) such as TGV, as a

viable alternative for future upgrades to the same network.

2. The replacement of petroleum-depleting Domestic Airline Service as the most time-

competitive and clean-energy network for Inter-City travel.

This paper will discuss how the MAGLEV system and its present-day modifications are fully

capable of fulfilling this purpose in the next 50 years.

Page 5: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

II. Replacing the Current Indian Rail Network

At present our Indian Rail network comprises of 115,000 km of track spread over 7500 stations.

It transports over 25 million people daily. The annual revenue of the Indian Railways is approx.

US$ 18 billion, 70% is by freight transportation.

In actuality, the Indian Railways supplies passenger tickets at subsidized rates, and runs at a loss

which is more than compensated by the profits earned by freight transport. This in turn provides

an opportunity to implement a profitable system to generate revenue by passenger tickets from a

Super-Speed Rail network which would transport passengers between cities in a duration time

that will be cut down by more than 75%. Faster transport is always equivalent to larger growth in

national scale businesses.

The issue at present comprises the comparatively Larger Capital Cost of building a Super-

Speed Rail infrastructure from scratch, considering that the existing rail lines are incompatible

for such lines. This very important economic dilemma is solved not by comparing current Indian

Rail System to MAGLEV but by comparing High Speed Rail to Maglev.

While it is true that the Broad Gauge used in 91% of our current track is compatible with

proposed Steel on Steel HS Rail System, usage of HS Rail is considered very dangerous

in lines that currently also carry freight.

It is most likely that an HS System cannot be directly introduced by replacement of

current Passenger Trains on the same line, whose trains are already choked by the

relatively lower class population comprising of almost 60% of Rail passengers, who will

not be able to travel in the HS Rail due to the higher ticket costs.

Moreover, as we shall see further in this paper, an HS or MAGLEV Rail is also designed

to relieve the Air Traffic congestion and the accommodation of this new influx of

passengers will not be possible in the existing Rail Network.

This leads to the building of a separate dedicated line for any possible HS/MAGLEV Line. The

costs of implementing a separate dedicated HS Rail System are comparable to the construction of

a MAGLEV infrastructure. To support this inference, take a look at this data,

Railway Date Type of System Cost per km Distance Comments

Madrid - Albacete 2010 High Speed line €9.57 million 304 km

Seoul-Gimpo, Korea 2010 Airport line $98.1 million 20.4 km

Yichang-Wanzhou, China

2011 Main line $9.1 million 377 km Surface with 278km in tunnel or bridges

Page 6: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

Haikou-Sanya, China 2010 High Speed line $10 million 308 km

Copenhagen 2011-2018 New Metro line $247.5million 16 km All underground

In comparison, the Construction Cost of a standard EMS MAGLEV Transrapid track in

Shanghai on dedicated pillars every 25m accounted to approximately US$ 40 million per km for

a 30km track.

The Construction Cost of an EDS SCMAGLEV all-concrete modular guide way design track

developed by Germany and Japan, which is faster and cheaper to build, will drop down further to

US$ 20 million per km considering that the U-shaped EDS channel in comparison to a T shaped

EMS channel can theoretically be built at ground level, with provisions to prevent unwanted

interactions with the surrounding environment that may disturb the track.

Other further advantages of MAGLEV system over a conventional Rail System is:

1) MAGLEV being a non-contact type of transport between the train and the track is

capable of all-weather operations. Rain, snow, or dust does not hinder this frictionless

transport system. This leads to dramatically lower maintenance costs for the same track.

2) Sound levels will be far lower considering the only sound will be from the expulsion of

air, and not the engine or the steel wheel-on-steel track sounds. This allows for

MAGLEV lines to be built far closer to metropolitan areas.

3) A MAGLEV System is environmentally clean. At present, 70% of the Indian Railway

locomotives run on Diesel, a fossil fuel. Depletion of petroleum reserves has been a

concern for a while now, and it is time to stop the use of Petroleum as our primary fuel

for transportation. HS Rail Tracks require overhead electricity lines which can be

cumbersome and dangerous. MAGLEV eliminates this necessity by underground power

lines that supply electricity only to the track.

4) Power efficiency is far higher. The only resistance to be countered is Air Resistance

compared to friction. Saving power is a necessity at present.

5) Considering that there is no contact between the track and train, MAGLEV tracks can be

built in areas where the weight of the locomotive questions the structural stability of the

track. For example, rail tracks on multipurpose bridges can cause the bridge to fail if the

weight of the cars added to the weight of the train at the point of crossing is too high. In

such a case, MAGLEV system would be perfect.

Page 7: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

III. Replacing the Current Domestic Flight Service

At present, Indian airports handle almost 60 million passengers for the year 2013-2014, nearly a

400% rise from the 14 million domestic passengers 10 years back in 2003-2004. The rise is

growing exponentially, with slight dips occasionally owing to fluctuating fuel prices.

The Centre for Aviation has projected that by the year 2023, Indian Passenger Traffic will

increase to 90 million. This enormous load on existing airports, especially in metropolitan cities,

will lead to greater infrastructure difficulties, more number of runways required to accommodate

for greater number of flight departures and arrivals per hour and greater number of terminals to

accommodate these passengers. At a certain point in the future, the flight accident probability

will be far too high in a highly congested Indian airspace.

To relieve the load on existing airports, it is necessary to understand, why the MAGLEV system

is the best possible system to replace it. This paper in particular addresses replacing the primary

means of high speed travel from domestic flights to MAGLEV specifically between the

metropolitan Indian cities. The issue that questions why a MAGLEV system is favorable over

Airlines is the Speed Difference, especially considering how the most important merit of

MAGLEV is its unprecedented ground speed.

Theoretically yes, the average speed of a MAGLEV train system is 500 kmph, considerably less

than the average speed of 800 kmph speed of an airplane. But factoring in other aspects,

MAGLEV remains at par in terms of on-time serviceability.

While airlines are flexible, commercial air routes are not. Flight routes when highly

congested can cause delays upto 30min. In comparison, commercial MAGLEV lines as

implemented in Shanghai have an on-time arrival and departure accuracy of 99.98%.

The average distance between major Metropolitan cities of the India is approximately

1400km. Theoretical flight time is 1hr 45min. Theoretical MAGLEV time is 2hr 45min.

The difference is approximately an hour, which is more than compensated by cut down of

unnecessary time excesses such as a 2hr early arrival for domestic fights, baggage

handling time, aircraft taxiing delay etc.

MAGLEV is an all-weather transportation system that is unaffected by delays caused due

to rain, snow etc. that affect flights to a very large extent. Functional reliability for a

MAGLEV proves to be far more advantageous than the overall flight Time Delay.

Page 8: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

Apart from Time considerations, the other areas where MAGLEV line is at par/better than the

Domestic Airline System are:

1) After 80 years of commercial flying, airlines are still using petroleum as it primary

aviation fuel. As stated earlier as well, petroleum reserves are rapidly depleting, and with

this rate of consumption, petroleum will not even remain for International flights which

as yet does not have a feasible replacement for itself. Apart from that, as evidenced by the

2012 fuel price hike, the volatility of fuel prices affects customers considering private jet

companies are unwilling to fly their planes at losses with no backup revenue service in

place unlike the government controlled proposed MAGLEV line.

2) MAGLEV trains are far safer as compared to flights primarily because these trains are

unaffected by any scope of human error. Despite the fact that the trains are levitating at a

certain height above the ground, magnetic coils on the train itself will prevent it from

falling even in an instance of power outage of the track. Power to the track is supplied

purely for propelling the train forward. On the other hand, airplanes have no backup

system in place save for a secondary engine.

3) Though not specifically designed for it, MAGLEV lines are capable of transporting

freight domestically with at par or even better punctuality than domestic flights. The

studies done by port facilities in California over freight-handling capacities in Single-

Stack Fully Loaded and Double-Stack Partially Loaded by MAGLEV came to the

following conclusions.

Per Consist Per Hour Per Day Per Year

Single-stack 20 sections 20 400 8000 2,920,000

Double-stack 20 sections 40 800 16000 5,840,000

1) Capacity in each direction

2) Assume 20 hr per day operating period

Operating Configuration Consist Length

Containers

4) Passenger congestion. At present, average number of passengers travelling between Delhi

and Mumbai is 700. Currently the MAGLEV system allows trains with a passenger

capacity of 600 (4 times that of a domestic Airbus A-320) departing with a frequency of

30min, the entire day. Despite the presence of a single two-way track between 2 cities,

MAGLEV lines are more than capable of handling a passenger capacity of 7200 per day.

Page 9: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

IV. Other Areas of Uncertainty for Adoption of MAGLEV

Power Consumption

Considering the fact that the MAGLEV track is levitating an entire train of 600 passengers, it is

often incorrectly assumed that the power consumption for MAGLEV track would be incredibly

high. To counter this, let us look at the data, measuring Energy demand for the ICE 3 German

High Speed Rail vs the Shanghai Transrapid for the same load capacity.

Speed

(kilometers/hour)

Specific energy consumption

(Watts hours m-2

km-1

)

ICE 3 Transrapid

150 24 27

200 28 31

250 33 35

300 40 41

330 46 45

350 50* 47

400 - 56

430 - 64

( m2 refers to usable interior space)

Because of the elimination of a standard engine, wheels, bearings and other conventional rail

parts, a MAGLEV coach is much lighter and travels with a much higher power efficiency owing

to negligible friction. As the propulsion system is capable of working in reverse without the use

of standard frictional brakes, while decelerating, energy is transferred back to the track power

line. This phenomenon helps in saving power to a great extent.

Apart from this, it is estimated that EDS SCMAGLEV systems will use 30% less power than

standard EMS MAGLEV.

As it can be seen, power consumption for a

MAGLEV line is at par with the energy

consumption of any High Speed Rail of the world.

In fact, at speeds above 300 kmph, MAGLEV has

lower power consumption than HS Rail.

Page 10: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

Safety

Safeties for any experimental transportation system is imperative to kick start its commercial use.

A persistent query among critics of the MAGLEV system has been whether it is absolutely safe.

It is reasonable to question this considering a train is travelling at 500 kmph levitated by barely 1

cm from the track.

To address this, let us look into the safety records for the only commercial MAGLEV line. The

Shanghai Transrapid has a safety record of 99.98%, unparalleled by any other means of

transport. A MAGLEV train cannot be derailed by any means. The extensive feedback systems

incorporated into the Transrapid have made it certain that distance between the track and train

remains uniform at every elevation, bend, or distance.

In a case of power outage in the track, the onboard magnets would be unaffected and would keep

the train levitated in the center of the Guide way. The SCMAGLEV has a provision to lower its

rubber wheels powered by a battery as an auxiliary means of propulsion as well.

Ground Vibrations and Magnetic Fields affected Humans

By tests performed on both the Shanghai Transrapid and the upcoming Japanese SCMAGLEV, it

was determined that the actual ground vibrations are below the perception of humans.

Initial testing of SCMAGLEV indicated interference of magnetic fields with passengers’

pacemakers and hard drives, but now, magnetic fields have been optimized and meet all

magnetic field exposure guidelines set by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing

Radiation Protection.

Page 11: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

V. Proposal for Implementation of MAGLEV Phase 1 in India

Phase 1 Introduction:

Phase 1 of my plan is aimed at interconnecting the Top 5 Business Hub Cities in India, namely

Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, all of which are the only ones with presently 10

million+ flight passengers per year. Phase 1 of the MAGLEV system is designed to connect

these cities with the most time-competitive journey durations.

Page 12: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

Phase 1 Network:

Delhi to Mumbai: 1300 km Mumbai to Bangalore: 800 km

Delhi to Kolkata: 1300 km Bangalore to Kolkata: 1500 km

Delhi to Bangalore: 1700 km Bangalore to Chennai: 250 km

Mumbai to Kolkata: 1600 km

Phase 1 Finance:

Passenger Ticket Revenue:

Total number of passengers per day :

Number of passengers per direction * No. of directions = 1500 * 14 = 21000 passengers

Revenue per day : 21000 * 50 = US$ 1050000/- (Ticket Price INR 3000 = US$ 50)

Revenue per year : US$ 383.25 Million

Revenue from freight from Indian Railways:

Estimated revenue per year by 2020: US$ 15 Billion

Construction Cost:

Track Cost: Total Distance * Cost/km = 8450 km * US$ 20 Million = US$ 169 Billion

Total Cost including Stations and Trains: US$ 170 Billion

By the estimates provided based on approximate data, it would take Indian Railways

approximately 11 years to pay off the Construction Cost for MAGLEV system using Revenue

from Freight + Passenger tickets, which is substantially lucrative considering the system is

designed for an Operation Period for at least the next 75 years.

Page 13: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

VI. CONCLUSIONS

MAGLEV is a fully tested technology, capable of widespread commercial use, and

already in place in Shanghai and approved for construction in Japan.

An HS Rail Line cannot be incorporated into existing Indian Railway tracks, and the

construction costs for a new track for HS Rail are comparable to the construction costs of

a new track for MAGLEV.

Apart from that, MAGLEV is faster, smoother, safer, more capable of all-weather

applications and uses comparable amount of power compared to an High Speed Train

Line.

Compared to domestic airlines, despite its lower speed, MAGLEV has a better on-time

reliability and are actually trip-time competitive on 1500 km domestic routes, by

reducing unavoidable time excesses in airports.

MAGLEV is also capable of handling domestic freight effectively and of relieving Air

Traffic congestion with ease.

By constructing MAGLEV dual tracks between the 5 major cities of India, it would take

Indian Railways 11 years to pay off Total Costs for Maglev for a 75-year proposed

Operation Period.

Most importantly, MAGLEV uses clean energy for operation and is the best alternative

for a Fast transport system that does not rely on fossil fuels that will be depleted in the

next 50 years by current usage trends.

The merits of MAGLEV as the best way forward for an Inter-City Transport System have been

discussed thoroughly and it would be highly beneficial if the Indian Government could divert

even 5% of its resources from Oil Exploration and Drilling towards researching low-cost

methods for construction of a MAGLEV system.

Page 14: Maglev - Inter-City Travel in India by 2030

VII. References

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maglev#Power_and_energy_usage

2. http://science.howstuffworks.com/transport/engines-equipment/maglev-train2.htm

3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Maglev_Train

4. http://www.northeastmaglev.com/frequently-asked-questions-about-scmaglev

5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_in_India_by_passenger_traf

fic

6. http://www.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml

7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Railways#Passenger_coaches

8. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transrapid#Energy_requirements

9. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/ilonidis2/

10. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICE_3