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University of Dhaka IMPACT OF LOAD SHEDDING IN DHAKA CITY Submitted by Md. Shakil Ahmed Sourov Mutsuddi Romena Parveen Amit Debnath Nahid Rijwan 3-09-16-041 3-08-14-053 3-09-16-012 3-09-16-044 3-09-17-033 Under the Supervision of Professor Dr. Shaker Ahmed
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Page 1: loadshedding research_final report

University of Dhaka

IMPACT OF LOAD SHEDDING IN DHAKA CITY

Submitted by

Md. Shakil Ahmed

Sourov Mutsuddi

Romena Parveen

Amit Debnath

Nahid Rijwan

3-09-16-041

3-08-14-053

3-09-16-012

3-09-16-044

3-09-17-033

Under the Supervision of

Professor Dr. Shaker Ahmed

__________________________________________________

Submitted: 8th August’ 2010

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Letter of transmittal

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Table of contents

List of tables

List of figure

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Ch-1: Introduction1.1 Background:

Load shedding is the term used to describe the deliberate switching off of electrical supply to parts of the electricity network, and hence to the customers in those areas. This practice is a core part of the emergency management of all electricity networks.

Load shedding can be required when there is an imbalance between electricity demand (customers’ usage) and electricity supply (the ability of the electricity network to generate and transport the required amount of electricity to meet this demand).

When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need to reduce demand very quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the entire electricity network becoming unstable and shutting down completely. This is known as a “cascade” event, and can end in a total or widespread network shutdown affecting very large areas of a country. Load shedding normally happens in two ways:

Automatic Load Shedding: This is a result of concurrent failures of major element(s) in the national grid (e.g. co-incidental generator or key transmission line failures), resulting in protection schemes initiating the automatic isolation of additional parts of the national grid, to protect the entire grid from cascading to a total blackout. Automatic load shedding always occurs on the transmission system level, with the result being large amounts of electricity and large blocks of customers taken off supply in a very short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be in the order of 1000MW – 2000MW, affecting hundreds of thousands of customers.

Manual (Selective) Load Shedding: This occurs where time is available (typically up to 60mins) to make selective choices on what customers are shed. Selective load shedding often occurs on the distribution system level, and typically requires medium to small amounts of electricity to be “shed” in a short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be in the order of 50MW – 100MW, affecting tens of thousands of customers at a time. If required, manual load shedding can also occur at the sub-transmission level, resulting in large blocks of customers being shed with little to no discrimination between customer types. This situation is invoked when a large amount of electricity (500MW –

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2000MW) is required to be shed in a timeframe of typically 1mins to 15mins, often under emergency conditions.

The priority assessment for selective load shedding is based on guidelines which have been ratified by the Bangladesh Government & BPDB.

As a guide, feeders that supply major hospitals, mental health care institutions, remand centers, sewerage and water pumping stations, industries requiring continuous supply, major public transport supplies, and traffic lights at major intersections, airports and high rise buildings will have a higher priority compared to feeders that have a predominantly residential, commercial or other industrial customer mix.

1.2: Literature Review

1.2.1: Electricity sector in Bangladesh

Bangladesh's energy infrastructure is quite small, insufficient and poorly managed. The per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is one of the lowest (136 kWh) in the world. Noncommercial energy sources, such as wood, animal wastes, and crop residues, are estimated to account for over half of the country's energy consumption. Bangladesh has small reserves of oil and coal, but very large natural gas resources. Commercial energy consumption is mostly natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.

Electricity is the major source of power for country's most of the economic activities. Bangladesh's installed electric generation capacity was 4.7 GW in 2009; only three-fourth of which is considered to be ‘available’. Only 40% of the population has access to electricity with a per capita availability of 136 kWh per annum. Problems in the Bangladesh's electric power sector include corruption in administration, high system losses, and delays in completion of new plants, low plant efficiencies, erratic power supply, electricity theft, blackouts, and shortages of funds for power plant maintenance. Overall, the country's generation plants have been unable to meet system demand over the past decade.

In generating and distributing electricity, the failure to adequately manage the load leads to extensive load shedding which results in severe disruption in the industrial

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production and other economic activities. A recent survey reveals that power outages result in a loss of industrial output worth $1 billion a year which reduces the GDP growth by about half a percentage point in Bangladesh. A major hurdle in efficiently delivering power is caused by the inefficient distribution system. It is estimated that the total transmission and distribution losses in Bangladesh amount to one-third of the total generation, the value of which is equal to US $247 million per year.

Renewable Energy: Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacities through rural households and 1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni. Bangladesh has planned to increase renewable energy 450 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020.

Recent Plans: The Ministry of Power and Energy has been mobilizing Tk 40,000 crore ($5.88 billion) to generate 5,000 MW of electricity to reduce load shedding into a tolerable level within next four and half years during the term of the present government. Under the plan, the Power Development Board (PDB) would produce 500 MW gas-fired electricity between July and December, 2009 to over come load shedding within December. The PDB would hire furnace-oil based 1,000MW of electricity from private sector from January to June 2010, the plan said. In 2011, the government would install furnace-oil based 800 MW capacity of power plant. The PDB officials would seek suitable place to establish the plant, a senior official of the PDB said. Besides the government would also hire another diesel or furnace oil based power plant having capacity of 700 MW in 2012 to keep load shedding into mild level, the official said. However, the government also contemplates to establish four coal-fired based power plants with capacity of producing 500 MW of electricity each with public and private partnership (PPP) in Rajshahi and Chittagong region. The government has initially tried to create fund of Tk 6,000 crore to implement the plan, sources said. The power division has tried to utilize the government's budgetary allocation of Tk. 2000 crore for PPP in this regard, sources added. "If we can create the fund of Tk. 6,000 crore, it would be possible also to mobilize Tk 40,000 crore under PPP to produce 5,000 MW f electricity within four and half years," PDB chairman ASM Alamgir Kabir told the New Nation on June 29, 2010. During the meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina permitted the power division to implement the PDB plan to reduce load shedding up to a tolerable level.

Nuclear Power Plant: Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW power plant at Rooppur, 200 km (125 miles) northwest of the capital Dhaka, by 2011.

1.2.2: Load Shedding Situation at Present in Bangladesh

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Bangladesh is facing huge load shedding of electricity. Almost all part of Dhaka having load shedding of electricity everyday at least four to eight hours everyday. In Karwan Bazar, power disruption occurred five times with more than five hours of outage between 8:00am and 5:00pm and in 24 hours almost eight to nine hours. Multiple power cuts for periods totaling six to seven hours occurred in Eskaton Garden, Dhanmondi, Kalabagan, Moghbazar, Khilgaon, Goran, Shahjahanpur, Mohammadpur, Banani, Uttara and other places.

Every summer Bangladesh face huge load shedding problem. According to the official statistics, the country’s electricity shortage gone up 1000 megawatts (MW) to 1259 MW with the demand of 4806 MW on 2009. Authority said this year (2010) about 1400 MW to 1800 MW electricity shortage will face this year, which is almost twice more than last year and the country need about 5000 MW. So this summer we might face the problem that’s we have not face last ten years. In Bangladesh electricity power is not generate as much as our demand. So every summer we face huge load shedding and people are suffering, but in winter there is almost not load shedding. In summer temperatures goes up to around 40° Celsius. So in this situation if there is load-shedding of electricity people face uncertain condition.

Power Development Board (PDB) sources said while the official power demand was just 5000MW, the unofficial demand was hovering around 6000 MW. The officially estimated power demand is 5000 MW against a generation of around 3500 MW. Around 1500 MW power could not be generated due to short supply of gas to many power plants. Gas is a major concern also because several new gas-fired power plants with nearly 1000 MW generation capacity are expected to be drafted into service this year. “We are expecting 200MW new power generation from May. If we cannot ensure the gas supplies, it will become meaningless” PDB pointed out.

A PDB official said the real power situation was worse than the official picture. “The Rural Electrification Board (REB) needs 2500 MW, but is given less than half of that. Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA) and Dhaka Electric Supply Company (DESCO) need more than 2000 MW power and the PDB needs another 2000 MW,”

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CH-2: OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY

2.1 Objectives:

The overall objective of the research is to collect socio-economic data from the selected areas in order to use them in and impact studies. The objectives to be concerned are as follows:

1. Whether there is any electricity outage, and the frequency of the problem.

2. Problems faced by general peoples due to load shedding.

3. How the peoples are tackling the power shortage problem in their day to day lives.

4. How is their perception on government’s role regarding the load shedding issue?

5. Suggestions.

These specific objectives of the survey will be to collect data relating to the following variables:

1. Age

2. Gender

3. Income level

4. Occupation

Methodology:

1. Research type – Exploratory Research2. Population size – People of Dhaka City3. Sample size – 100 People4. Sampling technique – Multistage Stratified Random Sampling5. Nature of data collection – Primary data6. Data collection instrument – Questionnaire7. Data processing instrument – EXCEL

Research Method:

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A descriptive research approach will be used to conduct the study. We will use the survey method and secondary data.

Sources of Data:

1. Primary Data

2. Secondary Data

Primary Data: We will collect our primary data to figure out the main reasons and public’s reaction about load shedding and power crisis in Bangladesh by conducting a survey on 100 general people. To do that survey first we have to prepare some questions and some suitable answers against each question. Then we have to pretest that questionnaire out side of the sample.

After that we will go out for general people to conduct our survey. The businessmen, shopkeepers, doctors, teachers, retired peoples, servants, housewives and students will be participating in our survey.

Secondary Data: We will collect our primary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), and from internet. However, bulk of the data will be collected from primary sources.

Study Area:

As the survey is conducted in a colony within Dhaka city, first a small colony area was selected randomly. The Rampura Television Center area was chosen to conduct the survey.

Sample Size:

Sample Size is predefined by our teacher Dr. Shaker Ahmed, and it is 100.

The research survey was conducted in two different types of respondents one is the household and the other is small enterprises. So the stratified random sampling was chosen in selecting sample. The total number of sample was divided into two equal parts. One is the household respondents and the other is small enterprise respondents. The sampling table is as follows:

Type of Sample Number of Sample

Household Respondents 50

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Small Enterprise Respondents 50

Instruments to be used:

Data will be collected using questionnaire. The questionnaire will first be pretested out side the sample area and then it will be administered in the test area.

Implementation:

The following activities will be performed by Team Members in 3 phases:

Data collection Data processing Report writing

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Ch-3: Results and Analysis

1. Frequency Distribution of Age

Age (yrs) Frequency %

15-20 5 5%

20-25 43 43%

25-30 16 16%

Above 30 36 36%

Total 100 100%

2. Frequency Distribution of Gender

Gender Frequency %

Male 62 62%

Female 38 38%

Total 100 100%

3. Distribution of Occupation

Occupation Frequency %

Businessman 47 47%

Job Holder 12 12%

Labor 0 0

Household 21 21%

Students 20 20%

Others 0 0

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Total 100 100%

4. Distribution of Income

Income Level (BDT) Frequency

Below 3000 06

3000-8000 17

8000-15000 26

15000-25000 42

Above 25000 09

Total 100

5. Duration of Load Shedding

Duration Frequency %

Below 2 Hrs 11

2 Hrs-4 Hrs 13

4Hrs-8 Hrs 58

Above 8 Hrs 18

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6. Occurrence of Load Shedding Period

Period Frequency %

Day Time 46

Night Time 54

7. Affected Activity

Activity Frequency %

Household Work 37

Study 46

Business Activity 64

Family Recreation 13

Daily Rest & Sleep 37

Others 03

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8. If adopted alternative measure

Alternative frequency %

Measure Taken 55

Measure not Taken 45

9. Alternative Type

Type Frequency %

Generator 11

I.P.S / U.P.S 27

Rental Power 17

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10. Extra cost paid for alternative (As percentage of total cost of electricity)

Extra Cost Frequency

5-10% 22

10-15% 8

15-20% 16

20-25% 9

11. How respondents think they could reduce the loss of electricity at personal level

Ways to reduce loss Frequency %

Using energy saving equipments 48

Reducing wrong use 62

Adopting renewable source of electricity 32

Others 05

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13. Does technical & administrative losses are the main reason for recent power crisis?

Opinion frequency %

Yes 81

No 19

14. People’s perception on govt.’s role to meet up the load shedding problem

perception frequency %

Highly satisfied 0

Satisfied 0

Neutral 4

Dissatisfied 37

Highly dissatisfied 59

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15. Age Gender Cross-Table

Gender Group

TotalMale Female

Age Group

15-20 4 1 5

20-25 26 17 43

25-30 10 6 16

30 above 22 14 36

Total 62 38 100

17. Type of Alternative - Adopted for alternative Cross-Table

Adopted for Alternative Total

Yes No

Type of Alternative

Generator 11 - 11

IPS / UPS 27 - 27

Rental Electricity 17 - 17

Others 0 - 0

Need Alternative - 29 29

Do not Need - 16 16

Total 55 45 100

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18. Alternative type – income level cross table

Alternative Type

Not Using Alternative

TotalGenerator IPS/UPSRental Power

Income level

Below 3000 0 0 0 6 6

3000-8000 0 2 5 10 17

8000-15000 0 3 4 19 26

15000-25000 3 21 8 10 42

Above 25000 8 1 0 0 9

Total 11 27 17 45 100

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Ch-4: Conclusion & Recommendation

Even though due to number of reasons and limitations of this study, may not be

considered accurate and effective in its result.

But there are still number of suggestions that can be given under this study.

Study shows there are many people who came under alternative power supply to run

their days work and economic activity. And many people want to adopt alternate power

source, but due to their higher cost, peoples of all income level can not reach for

alternatives.

And general peoples are not satisfied with govt.’s role regarding this load shedding issue.

Therefore government should take steps in this direction to facilitate the users.

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References:

1. Solving the energy crisis: Salman F Rahman and Forrest Cookson2. Maximizing Growth for Bangladesh: A Private Sector Vision, Ifty Islam, Asian Tiger

Capital Partners3. Power Crisis: Issues and Challenges Md. Mizanur Rahman, Energybangla.com4. Bangladesh Power System Master Plan Review, Engr Khondkar Abdus Saleque,

Feb 2009, Enerybangla.com