Limpopo River Basin Focal Project Limpopo River Basin Focal Project Kevin Scott
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project Limpopo River Basin Focal Project Kevin Scott.
Dec 16, 2015
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Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Limpopo River BasinFocal Project
Kevin Scott
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Challenge Program
Understanding the links between poverty, water availability, water productivity and local institutional arrangements to plan and bring about global improvements in
agricultural water use efficiency – producing more crop per drop while
improving the livelihoods of rural communities
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Basin Focal Projects
Identifying the major issues Establishing the links between issues Exploring options for change Producing guidelines for future research
Organised in 6 inter-linked work packages
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Work Packages
WP1Poverty Analysis WP2Water Availability WP3Water Productivity WP4Institutional Arrangements WP5Options for Intervention WP6Knowledge Management
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Water – The Life-blood of Development
Issues Surrounding Availability and Access and their Impact on Emerging
Policies
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Water – The Key to Growth
Drinking Water Water for Sanitation Facilitating Industrial Development Improving Food Production
Common Denominator for all Growth
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Cycle of Failure in Agricultural Developments
History of Failure Risks of Water Supply Competition for Resources Demand vs Supply Management Environment and Protection of Water
Resources
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Failing Irrigation Schemes
215 schemes Limpopo Province RSA Revilalisation under RESIS project
Norm rather than Exception Schemes seem to be Designed to Fail Under-estimate of the Impact of Supply
Risks
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Water AvailabilityWater Availability over Time
0.100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 391 421 451 481 511 541 571 601 631 661 691 721 751 781 811
Simulation Month
Mil
lio
n c
ub
ic m
etre
s p
er M
on
th
Monthly Runoff Priority Demands
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Supply RisksWater Available to Agriculture
0.1
1
10
100
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 391 421 451 481 511 541 571 601 631 661 691 721 751 781 811
Simulation Month
Mil
lio
n c
ub
ic m
etre
s p
er M
on
th
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Water Use and Risk
Who uses what water at what risk? Competition for high risk water? Opportunity value of water Impact of Risk on:
Poor farmers Small-scale production units
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Productivity versus Plot Size (Vegetable production)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0.25 1.00 1.75 2.50 3.25 4.00 4.75 5.50 6.25 7.00 7.75 8.50 9.25 10.00
Farm Size (ha)
Ran
d /
ha
Ability to pay Cost Profit
Small Commercial
Transition Farmers
SubsistenceFarmers
Food Plots
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Peasant Traps
Cycles of failure High risks Security of Income Household Food Security Nutritional Security
Establishing a Balance
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Demand Management
Limited Reliable Supply Equitable Distribution of Available
Resources Priority Setting Protecting Water Resources
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Supply Management
Assessing Potential Developing Resources Improving Reliability of Supply Timing of Cost Recovery Development Chains Trade-offs
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Assessing Potential (Risk Related)
Irrigation Potential B52H
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 5 15 30 50 75 105 140 180 225
Storage as %age of Reduced Runoff
Irri
gab
le A
rea
[ha]
D40=0.4 D40=0.5 D40=0.6
Current Irrigation Area Developed
Cu
rre
nt
Sto
rag
e
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Global Potential Water Accounting Systems Planned Interventions Impact of Changes
Environmental Impacts Social Impacts Impact Pathways Consequences
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Climate Variability
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Variability of FlowAvailable Water :- Temporal Variation
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 391 421 451 481 511 541 571 601 631 661 691 721 751 781 811
Simulation Month
Mm
^3 /
mo
nth
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Variability
Function of Mean and Median Flows Risks Increasing with Variability Impact on ‘Normal Flow’ The Black Hole of the Limpopo Environmental Considerations
One size fits all?
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
Where to? - Guidelines
Assessment of Development Potential Protection of Water Resources Development Impacts
Appropriate Policy Briefs
Limpopo River Basin Focal Project
End
Kevin Scott
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