Lessons from Challenge Bibendum - Patrick Oliva

Page 1 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th

What 10 years of Challenge Bibendum have taught the

private and public sectors about sustainable road transport and

reducing GHG

2008 TRB Meeting


Rallying together towards sustainable road mobility

Since 1998, Challenge Bibendum has been telling us

where industry and governments would like to go


Last edition of Challenge Bibendum : Shanghai, November 14 – 17, 2007

2500 participants, 600 journalists, 150 vehicles, 200 major companies or

institutions represented


Tomorrow's road mobility must adapt to growing urbanization as well as address societal challenges in terms of far greater energy efficiency and diversified energies. It will have to be cleaner, safer and more fluid…

…or it will come up against formidable opposition, with major predictable consequences on employment and social & economic development!...

The stakes


Let’s be clear about it: Road mobility as we know it is NOT

sustainable and the solutions contemplated so far are not commensurate

with the criticality of what is at stake.5 issues need to be addressed

simultaneously:

Insecurity

Urban pollution

GHG emissions

Congestion

Oil dependency


New mobilitypatterns

Reduction of transport related

CO2 emissionsUrban way of life

(congestion, pollution,noise, pedestrian security)

New predictablebusiness practices

Resource relatedconflicts


• 50 million vehicles• 2.5 billion inhabitants • 28% of populations

town dwellers

• <10% of CO2 emissions and 20% of oil use were transport-related

19501950


• >>1,500 million vehicles?

• 9 billion inhabitants?• 70% of populations

town dwellers?

• >30% of CO2 emissions and 75% of oil uses are transport-related?

20502050


Transportation: a critical role in world political issues

9,80%

3,30%

25,90%

19,40%

7,90%

13,50%

17,40%

2,80% Road transportation

Other transport

Energy supply

Industry

Private and commercialbuildingsAgriculture

Lumbering

Waste and waste water


Transportation: a critical role in world political issues

18%

6%

45%

18%

8%5% Road transportation

Other transport

Energy and heat supply

Industry and civilengineering

Residential

Other


To limit temperature increase to 2°C in 2050, GHG concentration must be constrained below 450ppm.

This means cutting worldwide CO2 emissions by half (2050 vs 2000).

Climate


In the case of road transportation, trends point to a doubling of CO2 emissions rather than a reduction

by 2!

G8 – Heiligendamm, June 2007 reduce CO2 by 50%!


Mr. Ban Ki Moon: UN Secretary General (UN Security Council’s first debate on climate change. April 17th, 2007)

“Limited or threatened access to energy (and scarce resources) is already known

to be a powerful driver of conflict. Our changing planet

risks making it more so.”


Consequence:

Very shortly (in the preparation of « Post-Kyoto » agreements),

drastic regulations will impose dramatic changes in energy use

and transportation patterns. This must be integrated in our strategic

vision of road mobility.


On a global basis, the next 25 years will witness (1)

continued dominance of ICEs and liquid hydrocarbon fuels (with enhanced combustion efficiency, exhaust gas treatment and fuel evolutions)


Fv

Energy to overcome resistance

Fv

On average, at 100km/h: FA>50%, FRR>20%, FI + FV>20% City driving: weak FA , %FRR , %FI

Vehicle Inertia (M)FI

Rolling resistance (M,S)

Vehicle internal losses

Aerodynamic drag (ACd,S)

FA

FV

FRRFRR


On a global basis, the next 25 years will witness (2)

Reduced consumption:• Engine efficiency: upgraded from 30% to 40%• Reduced cylinderpower• Reduced vehicle mass• Optimised aerodynamcs, tires, internal frictions

Diversified fuel:• Biofuels• Natural gas + synthetic fuels (GTL + CTL)• Hydrogene• Multifuel engine technologies

+ (urban) benefits of hybridation


On a global basis, the next 25 years must also witness (3)

dynamic market penetration of hybrid vehicles (featuring various degrees of hybridization) and electric vehicles.


On a global basis, the next 25 years must also witness (4)

significant development of:combined active and passive safety systems,car-to-car and car-to-infrastructure communication,ITS technologies

to enable (in particular), cars to be both lighter and safer.


Ragone Plot for various types of batteries


Vehicle design and technology evolutions: key features

From ICE injection optimization to electric powertrain management, electronics and electric power become critical.

Electrical energy storage deserves maximum attention: batteries and supercapacitors will play a major role.

By the time electric powertrains become mass marketed, « by wire » technology will also have to be developed. It is a key to weight reduction.


1. the future will be multi-technological2. vehicles will be much lighter3. in the « post Kyoto » agreement

negotiations, road transportation actors will be called upon to make substantial efforts.

an acceleration in electric engine development.

Three things are sure:

One we can predict:


An interesting case: China

China set forth its 3 priorities: Reduce oil consumption and develop

know-how in terms of alternative sources of energy

Bridge the gap with Europe, Japan and the United States as regards emission standards so as to curb urban pollution

Promote a revolution in propulsion systems


Mr. Katsuaki Watanabe: CEO, Toyota

“If it fails to take environmental measures, the

automotive industry has no future”.

Mr. Hiroyuki Watanabe: Director for Research, Toyota

“The future of cars is electric” (Shanghai, November 15, 2007)


So far electric vehicles have failed to rise to expectations owing to:

poor autonomy (cell capacity + protracted charging time)

overweight « overpriced » vehicles unsupportive psychological and regulatory environment

maintenance network issuesdoubtful “life cycle” level benefits

EV: strong resistanceto be overcome!


Photovoltaic pannels

Electric Current

Water

Hydrogen

Oxygen

Fuel cell Electric drive

vehicle

Exhaust: Water

Sun rays Storageup to

300 bars

Storageup to

300 bars

Electrolysis + Compression

Clean mobility: it works !


A decarbonizing economy does not

mean economic decline!!!


Innovation in low carbon

technologies is both a societal and an industry

necessity.


Lack of innovation

leads to price war.


Thank you

Lessons from Challenge Bibendum - Patrick Oliva

Technology

f v f rr f rr

weak f

f i vehicle inertia

sustainable road mobility

case of road transportation

electric shanghai

electric engine development

road transportation