Lead Toxicity & Climate Change Taylor, O’Brien, Smith (GLASS, Australia) & Thuppil (NRCLPI, India)

Lead Toxicity & Climate ChangeTaylor, O’Brien, Smith (GLASS, Australia)

& Thuppil (NRCLPI, India)

Aliens: “Good heavens! The earth has gone pear-shaped…”

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Global Warming & Climate Variability (GW&CV)

• 1.1° to 6.4° increase in temperatures predicted during the 21st century

• Cuts designed to allow a 50% chance of temperature rise of ≤ 2°C

• 25-40% GHG emission cut by developed nations by 2020 • Developing nations must peak GHG emissions before 2020• ≥50% greenhouse emission cut relative to 1990 required by

2050• With a 2°C increase:

– Disappearance of mountain glaciers– Damage to coral ecosystems– Severe impact on the Sahel– Thawing of arctic including Greenland

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Projected GHG Cuts

Emissions reduction rates to stay within a 2ºC increase.

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Health Impacts

• Lead replaces minerals (notably iron and calcium) within the body. Prevents haemoglobin formation in red blood cells producing anaemia

• 10µg/dL decreases kids IQ by 7.4 pts compared to 1µg/dL so this is aptly called “The Age of Stupid”

• 2µg/dL of lead in the blood increases risk of early death• WHO considers <10µg/dL an adequate goal;

researchers calling on WHO to halve that level • The LEAD Group says reduce goal to <2µg/dL • >50% of people alive today have probably had a Blood

lead above 10µg/dL• We would all be smarter and live longer were it not for

lead

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Cumulative Lead ProductionCumulative Lead Mine Production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

5000 4000 3000 2500 1500 500Years ago

pro

duction o

f le

ad

(106 m

etr

ic tons)

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead is in Everything & Everyone

• 2.5bn have no regulation of lead in house-paint• Lead petrol not yet banned in 14 countries• Savings following US ban: $110-319 bn • Karachi (2002) 80.5% of kids >10µg/dL• 5 Indian cities (2005) kids ave. 12.1µg/dL• >33% kids in China >10µg/dL (2004)• Lead is in unleaded petrol, diesel, coal, biomass,

dung, computers, solar panels...

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: The Gain leads to Loss etc GRID

The Gain leads to Loss, or

Win leads to Lose

GRID

Pb mgt GainGain GW&CV

Quadrant 1.

Gain->Gain

GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt

Pb mgt GainLoss GW&CV

Quadrant 2.

Gain->Loss

GW&CV GainLoss Pb mgt

Pb mgt LossGain GW&CV

Quadrant 3.

Loss->Gain

GW&CV LossGain Pb mgt

Pb mgt LossLoss GW&CV

Quadrant 4.

Loss->Loss

GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Climate Outcomes

• China, India and USA have rejected recommended targets

• Therefore locks in minimum 3°C increase – Stern/Garnaut max. target

• Declining crop yields, aridity, food shortage Africa & W. Asia

• 30% run-off decline Mediterranean and S. Africa / Amazon rainforest shrinks / US hurricane bill doubles

• Sahara greens but W African monsoon ceases / Boreal forest dieback / El Niňo intensifies

[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Real Cuts Required

• Realized temperature rise (0.6ºC) one quarter of real rise (2.4ºC)

• Remainder negated by pollution (notably SO2) or stored in oceans

• 2ºC realized by 2050 if all emissions reduced by 70%

• Coal fired power, sea transport & agriculture not included in cuts

• Real cuts required: 44-65% by 2020, >78% by 2050 for 3°C rise

[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change:Precipitation Predictions by Region

• Increasingly Intense Precipitation: N America, Europe, N Asia, SE Asia, Australia, Oceania, E Africa, W India, central western South America

• Arid Lowlands with Rivers Fed from Warming Rain Soaked Mountains:Central Asia

• Increasingly Arid: southern USA, Central America, Mediterranean, W Asia, southern Africa, south and western Australia, Chile

• Arid with Intense Precipitation: southern and western Australia, the south-western USA, and the northern Mediterranean

[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Dust & Aridity

• 50% of children’s seasonal blood lead variations are due to warmer weather

• Soil serves as sink for lead from gasoline (tetraethyl lead)

• 50% fine particulate pollution in soil when conditions arid

• Half of household dust from external sources• Cavity dust major source of significant lead

[GW&CV LossLoss Lead (Pb) mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Batteries 1960

[GW&CV winLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Batteries: 2008

[GW&CV winLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Batteries: 50 years

[GW&CV winLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Lead Batteries: 20 Years

[GW&CV winLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Carbon Combustion Power

• Coal fired power can provide >12-45% of lead emissions• Over 17m tons of lead deposited in fly ash in US 2000-

2006• Coal emissions 41% of CO2 (2005) but 77% of SO2

(2000)• Overall impact on warming neutral or negative, little

black carbon• Natural gas moderate CO2, little SO2 or Pb; large

fugitive emissions• Oil high CO2, significant black carbon, SO2 & Pb• Biomass combustion produces black carbon & Pb

[GW&CV Loss Pb mgt Loss– Quadrant 4 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Other Power

• Nuclear reactors: Produce little GHG , no lead emissions• Lead disbursal or deposition during an accident potentially

massive• Hydroelectricity largest renewable segment; produces methane• Geothermal little GHG or Pb; limited by sites, little expansion• Wind, solar and other intermittent renewable: little GHG but

requires electricity co-generation• Lead impact of intermittent renewables predominantly electricity

storage need at local level

[Pb mgt Loss GW&CV Gain– Quadrant 3 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Static Power Storage

• 15% of new lead acid batteries (1100 tons of lead) deployed statically

• In Africa and Asia car batteries are used to store electrical power

• Each computer in developing world causes 0.9-1.6 Kg of lead waste

• US batteries 99.8% recycled: Uganda (2000) 10% recycled.

[Pb mgt Loss GW&CV Neutral– Center of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Transport

• 14% of GHG emissions: Vehicles 76%, sea 10%, air 12% • Road transport: 5-8% of European lead emissions• Almost half of GHG emissions from cars, light vehicles, 2-

3 wheelers• Sea transport short term greenhouse inhibitor due to SO2• Air travel IPCC estimates real impact 2-4 times it GHG

emissions• Avgas (propeller aircraft fuel) leaded; nearly a third of US

air lead emissions

[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Vehicle Population Growth

[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the Grid]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Vehicle Emissions Growth

[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the Grid]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Rural Impacts & Power Transformation

• 18 % of GHG emissions from burning forest for farmland• Biomass combustion (farm or domestic) produces lead

emissions • Europe c10% renewable obtains 55.1% of electricity

from carbon• Lead emissions eliminated by switch from coal to

nuclear• Nuclear power plant takes 7-15 years to build: too late

for 2020

[GW&CV LossLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 4 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Rising Lead Production

World production and consumption of lead 1962-2007

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

Year

Kil

oto

ns

of

lead

Production Mine

Production Primary

Production Secondary

Production Total ofrefined lead

Consumption

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Australian Pb Ore Grades Declining:

Lead Waste Increasing[GW&CV GainLoss Pb mgt – Quadrant 2 of the GRID]

0

16

32

48

64

80

1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Ore

Gra

de -

Lead

(%P

b)

Ore Grade (%Pb)

Ore Grade (%Pb) - Northampton WA Only

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Recommendations: Greenhouse Management

• Taxation of hydrocarbons used in transportation; abandon biofuels

• Tougher diesel standards to restrict black carbon emissions• Reducing biomass combustion for farming/domestic

purposes• Adding insulation to houses while removing ceiling dust• Price incentives to industries to reduce GHG emissions• Funding for biosequestration programs rather than

geosequestration• Lower priority: Reducing carbon combustion for electricity

[GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt – Quadrant 1 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Recommendations: Lead Management

• Biosequestration or chemical stabilization of lead waste• Tax on lead mining at the mine to encourage recycling• Tax new vehicles & reduce numbers of vehicles being

made, by providing public transport, bikeways, walkways & incentives to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT)

• Enhance lead recycling, battery deposit or repurchase and convert small-scale lead battery works into collection points, and ensure all batteries are recycled at large-scale facilities covered by OH&S and Environmental Controls

• Ban leaded AvGas globally

[GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt – Quadrant 1 of the GRID]

Lead Toxicity & Climate Change: Recommendations: A Smarter World

• Laws to prevent lead diversion from lead acid batteries to unregulated uses

• Regulation of combustion of materials that may contain lead

• Education & nutritional supplements, veganism • Decrease all fuel burning by localising all production,

encouraging urban gardens, decreasing manufacturing & ending the era of consumerism & long-haul transport

• Prevention of lead poisoning in every way we can, will promote the Age of Reason necessary to mitigate and adjust to climate change

[GW&CV GainGain Pb mgt – Quadrant 1 of the GRID]

Thankyou!The End

See the slide show at www.lead.org.au/bblp/Climate_Change/index.htm & the speech at www.lead.org.au/bblp/Climate_Change/textspeech.htm For all references & graphics permissions see the paper at www.lead.org.au/bblp/Climate_Change/Conf_Paper.pdf

Co-author Elizabeth O’Brien (left) asks each person who reads this presentation to convince their organisation & their country to join up to reduce their carbon emissions by 10% by 2010 to make 2010 the peaking year. Join up at www.1010global.org