Kajian Ilmiah REDD+ MRV : Konteks Global dan Relevansinya dengan Kegiatan Demonstrasi REDD+ di Indonesia

1. Kajian Ilmiah REDD+ MRV : Konteks Global dan Relevansinya dengan Kegiatan Demonstrasi REDD+ di Indonesia Temu Pihak Terkait Pengembangan Kolaborasi Inventarisasi Hutan untuk Pendugaan Karbon Hutan di Propinsi Kalimantan Tengah Palangkaraya, November 2014 Arief Wijaya Center For International Forestry Research (CIFOR) 2. Outline Gambaran umum FREL/FRL Update terkini dari diskusi FREL/FRL internasional Skema pendanaan REDD+ non-UNFCCC Perbandingan dengan negara/sub-national region lainnya Lesson learnt untuk REDD+ MRV Kalimantan Tengah 3. Gambaran Umum FREL/FRL Sampai saat ini sudah ada 4 keputusan COP terkait dengan FREL/FRL RED+, terkait dengan 1) modalities dan petunjuk untuk penyusunan FREL/FRL, and 2) evaluasi teknis terhadap dokumen FREL/FRL Negara yang akan melaksanakan REDD+ activities harus memiliki: National strategy action plan National forest reference emission level and/or forest reference level sub national as interim Robust and transparent forest monitoring system System for providing information on how the safeguards are being addressed and respected. 4. COP decisions providing details on REDD+ FREL/FRLs Be expressed in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year Maintain consistency with national GHG inventories Be established transparency, providing information and rationale FREL/FRL development Allow for a stepwise approach Allow for the use of subnational FREL/FRLs as an interim measure 5. Stepwise approach for FREL/FRLs (Herold, et.al, 2011) 6. Higher tier approaches for REL development Retain predictive power of historical trend data and move to more driver-based assessment and predictions Include data-driver reasoning for deviations from historical trend (i.e. national circumstances) Higher tiers use national data: Deforestation and emissions and understanding of historical processes using data on drivers and activities causing forest carbon stocks change Establish relationship with underlying causes (proxies) Justification why and how deforestation varies from historical trend on the level of drivers and activities 7. Note on FREL/FRL terminology In UNFCCC COP decisions the term forest reference emission levels and/or forest reference levels (FREL/FRLs) is used. The most common understanding is that a FREL includes only emissions from deforestation and degradation FRL includes both emissions by sources and removals by sink, thus it includes also enhancement of forest carbon stocks. 8. FREL/FRL terminology National FREL submission document used the combined estimates 9. REDD+ Financing Mechanism The most common reason for developing a REDD+ FREL/FRL is to access international finance linked to positive performance (or results) from implementing REDD+ actions There is currently no operational financing mechanism under the UNFCCC that provides payments for REDD+ results The COP has agreed to a number of requirements that could assist in the operationalization of such a mechanism Green Climate Fund (GCF) (decision 1/CP.16) to support projects, programs, policies and other activities in developing country Parties 10. REDD+ Financing Mechanism Specific programs focus on finance for results-based REDD+ actions: World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) Carbon Fund REDD+ Early Movers (REM) German government The BioCarbon Funds Initiative for Sustainable Forest Landscapes (ISFL) 11. Comparison of Financing Mechanisms 12. National/Significant Biomes Sub National/Project Deforestation and degradation are always mentioned 10 yrs (max 15 yrs) 8-12 yrs, 3 points At least Tier 2 13. Norwegian Initiatives to Combat Climate Change - NICFI Norway pays developing countries to reduce emissions and not to watch their forests Norway agreement respects on national circumstances and sovereignty They care on the processes and the outcomes CO2 emissions reduction target Inclusiveness principles 14. Forest carbon emissions equation 15. Implications to national carbon emissions estimate (Indonesia) how about Kalteng? Source Annual CO2 Emission from deforestation 2000 - 2009/2012 (in Gt CO2e)* Methods Remarks FAOStat 0.35 FRA country report (EF = 138 ton C/ha) Net forest conversion MoE - Second National Communication to UNFCCC 0.83 IPCC Guidelines 2006 Net forest conversion Winrock International (Harris, 2012) 0.39 Carbon Bookkeeping model (RS + Field) Gross deforestation MOF (official) 0.81 Approach 3 + average national emission (Tier 1 or 2) Gross deforestation MOF + Saatchi (CIFOR) 0.20 Approach 3 + Global EF (Tier 1 or 2) Net forest conversion National FREL document 0.21 Approach 3 + NFI data (Tier 2) Gross deforestation * does not include peat emissions and peat fire 16. Lesson learned from CIFOR Global Comparative Study on REDD+ Project Countries should start as soon as possible for estimating their national REL/RL based on the best available data (tier 1 estimate) If we have less data the more we depend on those data Countries should invest for collecting national datasets (i.e. time series forest cover change and local emissions factor data) Estimate on carbon stocks change at national/sub- national/project scale should comply with the convention (i.e. IPCC guidelines) 17. Lesson learned from CIFOR Global Comparative Study on REDD+ Project Participation of local people is important to significantly reduce risks of REDD+ and to improve credibility of national climate change mitigation programs Source: Indonesian REDD+ Agency 18. Study on REDD+ incentives Emissions reductions that can claim for REDD+ financial incentives should be additional of those resulted from national climate change mitigation program (i.e. based on self financed/national efforts) Differentiate between REL as business as usual (BAU) and crediting baseline (or financial incentive benchmark) Source: redd-net.org 19. Study on REDD+ incentives Emissions reduction that can claim REDD+ incentives should be additional of those of national climate change mitigation program (based on self financed/national efforts) Carbon emissions reduction should be estimated following Tier 2 approach Trade off between climate change mitigation and national economic development sectors is the main challenge to engage in phase 3 of REDD+ implementation (i.e. results-based payment at national scale) Phase 1 and 2 funding of REDD+ project established at subnational/project levels can be financed through non-market mechanism (e.g. international donors, project based, etc) Phase 3 REDD+ project should be ideally financed through market based mechanism 20. Four Decades of Forests Persistence, clearance and logging in Borneo (1973-2010) Source: Gaveau, et.al (2014) 76% of forest cover (1973) 46% of forest cover (2010) http://gislab.cifor.cgiar.org/wm/borneo/ 21. CIFOR Study (Subset of Borneo-wide Data 1973 2010) Class labels Area (Mha) Intact Forest 2010 4.12 Logged Forest 2010 4.04 Deforestation from 1973 to 2010 3.86 Non-Forest 1973 2.97 Clouds 0.26 Total 15.24 Courtesy: David Gaveau (CIFOR)