Joint presentation by Paul Davies (Met Office) and Cyrille Honoré (Meteo France)

Resilience to Extreme Weather

How can we learn from each other

Paris, 21st October, 2015

Cyrille Honoré, Météo-FrancePaul Davies, Met Office

Major windstorms in Dec. : 92 p. killed, huge damage in Forests and infrastructure (15 bn €)

Windstorms: France 1999

France 1999 windstorms

Good forecast but poor efficiency in warning process, poor understanding from the public Prime Minister decides to update the Warning procedure and inform the general public and Authorities simultaneously on the basis of simple and updated colour information (from proposals from Météo-France and the Civil Protection Authorities)

Vigilance warning service

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Assessment

Annual assessment reports have been published since 2004.

Relevancy and timeliness of warnings are estimated from :• reports of damages, • Number of rescue operations, casualties, victims,• Lead time and anticipated measures taken on the field

Quality indexes are followed over time with stakeholders and partners

BenefitsAfter more than twelve years of operations :

• 92% of the population know the vigilance map,• Of which 88% say they know the behavior advice, more or less• Facts are sometimes tragically different

• Close cooperation with Civil Protection helps to anticipate and manage crisis situations : preventive actions are taken to mitigate impacts and facilitate recovery

• Service delivery is enhanced using Internet technologies, social media in addition to traditional dissemination.

• Pressure on the system is ever rising…

UK National Severe Weather Warning Service

Warnings based in likelihood and impacts

LIKE

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High

Medium

Low

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Very Low

Low Medium High

Like

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Impacts

© Crown copyright Met Office

Scotland 8 December 2011“The conditions are exactly as predicted when the Met Office issued its red warning” Nicola Sturgeon, Deputy First Minister

• Mon 5 Dec – Yellow warning issued – meetings with Scottish Govt, Transport Scotland and Resilience community begin

• Wed 7 Dec – Red warning issued• Thu 8 Dec – Gusts in excess of 100kts recorded

Valid from 10:00 am on Thu 08 Dec 2011 until 21:00 on Thu 08 Dec 2011

Major flooding during summer 2007. Costs of insured losses £3.25Bn

Floods: UK 2007

Pitt Review and UK Government Response

• Sir Michael Pitt’s independent review into the 2007 floods, published in June 2008 Comprehensive review into response and recovery from 2007 floods 92 recommendations

• Government published full response in December 2008 accepting all recommendations.

• Response led to establishment of multiagency Flood Forecasting Centre

Flood VigilanceA working partership between Ministry of Environment Sustainable Development and Météo-France since 2007

Storm Surge: NW Europe 2013/14

From hazard forecasting…Windgusts higher than 160 km/h

Mean Wave height reaching 7,80 m at sea

10 m windspeed, gusts et isobars

Surcote

Mer totale (H1/3)

Storm surge higher than 1m

…to potential impact : Atlantic coast, 2010, February 28th

Consequences were dramatic with 47 p. killed, 1.3 bn€ economic loss estimate.

Another strong driver to improve in 2011 !

"Without them (Météo-France), the toll would have been much higher", Président N.Sarkozy.

Credit: Reuters

last hazard taken into account : coastal event

© Julien Lestage

5 December, 2013

Collaboration and looking forward

NHP – ‘The UK’s trusted voice for coordinated natural hazards advice’

Meteoalarm

© Crown copyright Met Office

Questions