John Ostrich: Space Weather Policy

DOE/OE International Efforts on GMD September 2013

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF

ENERGY

Space Weather Policy

John Ostrich Program Manager, GMD/EMP Activities Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Division Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy

December 1, 2015


Background: Why Does DOE Care?

• NERC and DOE held workshop in 2009

to examine three main high impact low

frequency events to the bulk electric

system.

• GMD (natural threat) and EMP (man

made) were considered one of the three

threats.

• Conclusions of this workshop and of the

studies agreed that consequences could

be high and impacts long term.

• A positive result was formation of the

NERC GMD Task Force.

• Another Result was Resolve at DOE to

Fund Some Efforts to Better Understand

the Problem.

2

High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the U.S. Department of Energy’s November 2009 Workshop DOE and NERC, June 2010


Why Does DOE Care?

• A priority for the White House

• National Space Weather Strategy developed by the White House and

partners, including DOE

• Space Weather Action Plan drafted and released as well

• Both Strategy and Action Plan released October 29, 2015

• DOE worked closely with the Office of Science and Technology Policy at

the White House, DHS, FEMA, and other agencies on the strategy and

action plans

3


DOE Strategy for Space Weather

4

Funded efforts to determine

which transformers are more

susceptible to GMD.

Support to Sunburst project

which measures ground-induced

currents (from GMD) on

transformers. There were 10

monitors when we started, all in

Eastern grid. There are now 41

monitors in all three major grids.

Cost share project to deploy 12

variometers in the Eastern grid

to measure magnetic fields.

These data can improve ability of

utilities to accurately assess

vulnerability to GMD.

Path forward: Support efforts to

validate models of impacts. Help

identify benchmarks. R&D

efforts to improve resilience of

transformers.

Working with industry directly and

through our participation in the

NERC GMD Task Force.

DOE laboratories are supporting

advancements in protection and

mitigation measures.

Co-sponsored two international

workshops on space weather in

February and March of 2015.

Supported domestic and

international workshops with

industry, academia, insurance, and

government partners to explore

solutions and best practices.

Path forward: Continue to work with

international partners and with the

White House, NASA, DHS, DOD,

USGS, FEMA, and others to

advance science on impacts,

protection and mitigation solutions.

Partnerships Analysis

Electric power impacts

associated with GMD and solar

storms in the Western and

Eastern Interconnects.

Studies in 2012 and 2014 on

LPTs addressing industry’s

concern about long lead time to

deliver. Updated study being

considered.

Reports with NERC in 2010 and

2012 about the risks to severe

GMD events on the bulk power

system.

2013 Funded an International

Electric Grid Protection Report

Path forward: Examine effects

of GMD on system components

and performance and share

lessons learned on mitigation

and protection technologies.

Consideration of transformer

stockpile.

Advancing Science


DOE’s Focus: Large Power Transformers

• In June 2012, OE completed a study,

“Large Power Transformers and the U.S.

Electric Grid.”

• Study addressed U.S. electric power

industry’s concern about large power

transformers (LPTs).

• Demand for LPTs is on the rise globally

and domestically.

• LPTs require a long lead time, and

transporting them can be challenging.

• Very limited capacity to manufacture

LPTs in the U.S. at the start of the study.

• Updated study in April 2014. Working

on another update.

5

“The limited availability of

[spare] extra-high-voltage

transformers in crisis

situations presents

potential supply chain

vulnerability.”

- A Framework for Establishing

Critical Infrastructure Resilience

Goals, National Infrastructure

Advisory Council, 2010


DOE Interest in Large Power Transformers

• Several new large power transformer manufacturing plants built in US in

past few years. – EFACEC in Georgia 2009

– Hyundai in Alabama in 2011

– Mitsubishi in Tennessee in 2013

• Other manufacturers upgraded current plants to allow production of LPTs – SPX in Wisconsin completed 50% expansion in 2012 to allow it to build more LPTs.

– More upgrades expected.

• DOE updated LPT Study in June 2014. Updating again.

• Have Developed a Transformer Strategy.

6


Workshops

• February 2015 Co-sponsored a North Atlantic Space Weather

Workshop with the White House and UK Government – Held at White House and State Department

– Irish and Canadian representatives also attended

– Main focus was impact to power grids

– Public messaging was also an important focus

• March 2015 Co-sponsored a Workshop with NRCAN – Held in Ottawa

– Focus on Transformers

– Manufacturers Attended

• March 2015 Presented at LWS Institute Workshop on GMD

• April 2015 Presented at INL GMD Workshop.

7


Role of Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)

• “Watch” from Space Weather Prediction Center – First indication of potential event

– Something has occurred on the Sun and it may affect the Earth

– 14 to 72 hour lead time

– Will get estimated level of phenomenon on G-scale

• “Warning” from SWPC – Observations indicate that impacts to Earth are Likely

– Warning time will be about 30 minutes

• “Alert” from SWPC – Effect on Earth have been/are being observed at Earth – Event in progress

8


Development of National Space Weather Strategy

• Space Weather Operations Research and Mitigation (SWORM) Task

Force formed in November 2014 to develop a National Space Weather

Strategy

• OSTP, DOC NOAA, and DHS Co-chaired Task Force

• Members included representatives from seven different cabinet-level

departments (and 13 agencies and service branches): – Department of Commerce

– Department of Defense

– Department of Energy

– Department of Homeland Security

– Department of the Interior

– Department of State

– Department of Transportation

–

• First draft released for public comments in May 2015

9


Objectives of the National Space Weather Strategy

• Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events

• Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities

• Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts

• Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical

Infrastructure

• Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding

and Forecasting

• Increase International Cooperation

10


Development of the Space Weather Action Plan

• Work began on Action Plan in March 2015

• Draft Plan was completed by May 2015 and National Space Weather

Strategy was released for public comment

• Same Departments and Agency representatives wrote strategy and

developed action plan

11


Actions from Space Weather Action Plan

12

Goals Total Action

Items

DOE Leads

or Co-

Leads

DOE

Supports

Establish Benchmarks for Space Weather Events 15 0 3

Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities 12 1 1

Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts

6 0 3

Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of

Impacts on Critical Infrastructure

19 2 6

Improve Space Weather Services through

Advancing Understanding of Forecasting

24 0 0

Increase International Cooperation

21 1 1

Total 97 4 14


DOE’s Actions in Space Weather Action Plan

• Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events

• Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities

• Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts


Infrastructure

• Increase International Cooperation

13



• Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events – Develop benchmarks

– Complete assessment of current data and identify gaps for benchmark development

– Develop improved benchmarks for geo-electric field benchmarks

• Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities – Develop all-hazard Power Outage Incident Annex (POIA) to the Federal Interagency

Operations Plans (FIOPs)

– Complete a National Risk Estimate for Space Weather and integrate comprehensive

space-weather preparedness into existing all-hazard preparedness guidance

• Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts – Develop mitigation and protection guidance to improve resilience

– Develop resilience guidance

– Develop cross-sector engagement strategy and assess the landscape and feasibility of

incentives

14




Infrastructure – Assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to space-weather events. Assessment will

include interdependencies and failure modes

– Develop plans to provide monitoring and data collection systems. The plans will inform a

system-wide, real-time view of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs)

– Define data requirements that facilitate a centralized reporting system to collect real-time

information on the status of the electric power transmission and distribution system during

geomagnetic storms

– Define sector-specific requirements for developing operational models for the effects of space

weather on critical infrastructures

– identify gaps in current modeling capabilities and work with the research community to

develop new and improved impact models and decision support tools.

– Complete testing and validation of existing infrastructure impact models and provide a plan to

address any identified gaps

– Incorporate infrastructure impact models into existing and future exercises to develop realistic

space-weather scenarios for response and recovery, including societal impacts

– Complete review of the extent to which grant programs at various agencies support research

on the effects of space weather on critical infrastructure, and identify opportunities to

introduce new programs or enhance existing processes

15



• Increase International Cooperation – Develop proposal for international assessment

– Address extreme space-weather events in accordance with supply-chain issues and as

part of the U.S. government’s overall and ongoing efforts to implement the 2012

National Strategy for Global Supply Chain Security.

16


For Additional Information and Inquiries

John Ostrich

Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration

Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability

U.S. Department of Energy

Telephone: 240-654-7558

Email: [email protected]

17

mailto:[email protected]

John Ostrich: Space Weather Policy

Government & Nonprofit