Jeff Jowett, IHS Presentation

© 2015 IHS

ihs.com

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

North American Powertrain Outlook

UMTRI “Focus on the Future” Automotive Research Conferences

Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: Revolution and Evolution

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Jeff Jowett

Manager – Americas Powertrain Forecasting

© 2015 IHS

2

Presentation Outline

• Global Context

• N. American Vehicle Production Outlook

• Powertrain Dynamics

• OEM Profiles

• Summary

• Introduction to IHS

• U.S. Regulatory Overview

• Technology Trends

• OEM Profiles

• Summary

© 2015 IHS

IHS – What We Do

3

ANALYTICS

EXPERTISE

INFORMATION We offer information, analytics and

expertise to organizations around

the world.

They depend on our insights to help

them make decisions about everything

from day-to-day operations to long-

term investments.

ANALYTICS

EXPERTISE

INFORMATION

© 2015 IHS

IHS Industries

4

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

100+ years’ experience

delivering unrivaled news,

insight and intelligence on

defense and security

equipment, markets,

industries and risk

CHEMICAL

Over 200 leading industry

authorities creating integrated

views and analysis across

more than 300 chemical

markets and 2,000 processes

for 95 industries

FINANCE

Research on 200+

countries and territories

with harmonized indicators

from IHS analysts and

economists

TECHNOLOGY

World’s largest

electronics component

database with more than

350 million parts

AUTOMOTIVE

The world’s largest team

of automotive analysts with

hundreds of experts located

in 15 key markets around

the world covering the entire

automotive value chain

ENERGY

Extensive Oil & Gas well

information on 5.5+ million

wells worldwide dating

back as far as 1860

MARITIME

World’s largest maritime

database with an information

gathering heritage of 250+

years with comprehensive

information on all vessels 100

GT and over

© 2015 IHS

5


• Global Context



• OEM Profiles

• Summary




• OEM Profiles

• Summary

© 2015 IHS

U.S. CAFE and CO2 Regulations

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163 g/mile of CO2 in 2025

= 54.5 mpg if all CO2 emissions

reductions are achieved with

fuel economy technology

49.6 mpg in 2025 (unadjusted)

40-42 mpg (real world)

According to Michael Sivak at UMTRI, the average fuel economy of all

vehicles sold in calendar 2014 was 25.3 mpg (real world)

© 2015 IHS

U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Car Fleet

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Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance

© 2015 IHS

U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Truck Fleet

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Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance

© 2015 IHS

9


• Global Context



• OEM Profiles

• Summary




• OEM Profiles

• Summary

© 2015 IHS

North America Engine Technology Trends

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

VVT

Gas DI

Stop/Start

Gas Boosted

Cyl Deac

Gas-E85

Hybrid-Full

Diesel

Hybrid-Mild

Electric

Fuel Cell

Millio

ns

Source: IHS Automotive May‘15, Engine installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America

© 2015 IHS

Higher Ratio Planetary and CVTs Grab the Lions Share of

NAFTA Market…

0

5

10

15

20

25

'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27

Mill

ion

s

Man

EVT

DCT

CVT

A8+

A6/7

≤A5

AMT

18%

61%

Design Type By Year

Source: IHS Automotive May‘15, Transmission installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America

© 2015 IHS 12

Global Technology Islands in 2020

Legislation, drive cycle, and consumer choice dictate technology

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Europe

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Japan/Korea

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

South America

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

South Asia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Greater China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MiddleEast/Africa

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

North America

Die

sel

GD

I

Ad

v T

ran

s

Hyb

rid

E

lec

tric

G

as

Bo

os

ted

IC

E+

S/S

AW

D /

4W

D

Source: IHS Automotive

© 2015 IHS

U.S. Powertrain Sales Technology Trends

© 2015 IHS 13

13

© 2015 IHS

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• Global Context



• OEM Profiles

• Summary




• OEM Profiles

• Summary

© 2015 IHS

FCA

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

Millio

ns

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

8 cyl

4 cyl

6 cyl

© 2015 IHS

Ford

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Millio

ns

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

8 cyl

4 cyl

3 cyl

6 cyl

© 2015 IHS

General Motors

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Millio

ns

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

8 cyl

4 cyl

3 cyl

6 cyl

© 2015 IHS

Honda

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

Millio

ns

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

6 cyl

4 cyl

© 2015 IHS

Hyundai

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Mil

lio

ns

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

8 cyl

4 cyl

6 cyl

© 2015 IHS

Nissan

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Millio

ns

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

8 cyl

4 cyl

3 cyl

6 cyl

© 2015 IHS

Toyota

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

Millio

ns

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

8 cyl

4 cyl

3 cyl

6 cyl

© 2015 IHS

6 cyl

4 cyl

Volkswagen

0100200300400500600700800

Th

ou

san

ds

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

8 cyl

© 2015 IHS

23


• Global Context



• OEM Profiles

• Summary




• OEM Profiles

• Summary

© 2015 IHS

Final Thoughts

• Legislation is the most significant driver of industry change; this is creating the need for

an abundance of new powertrain technologies to be created, refined, and manufactured

• CAFE and CO2 regulations are extremely challenging for the U.S. market and some

OEM’s are already better positioned to meet those regulations than others

• There isn’t one technology that will ultimately allow manufactures to meet the

regulations. Whether by segment, or by OEM, there will be many different technology

combinations

• Global powertrain platforms/architectures will continue to proliferate through the forecast

horizon – driven by competition, speed to market, economies of scale, and fulfilling

requirements in both developed and developing markets

24

IHS Customer Care:

• Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); [email protected]

• Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; [email protected]

• Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; [email protected]

© 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS.

Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the

opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more

information, please contact IHS at Customer Care (see phone numbers and email addresses above). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.

Jeff Jowett

Manager – Americas Powertrain Forecasting

+1 248-465-2829

[email protected]

Thank you.

mailto:[email protected]



Jeff Jowett, IHS Presentation

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