Page 1
March 18, 2010
The External Environment for Developing Countries
Overview
This brief was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) and colleagues in PRMTR, ECA (Moscow)
and IFC (Risk/Economics) led by Elliot (Mick) Riordan. The team is comprised of Riordan (OECD, currencies), Nadia Spivak, Sta-
cey Chow (trade), Shane Streifel (commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savescu (IP) and Sabah Mirza (Annex). Zeljko
Bogetic (ECA) provided a review of Russia, and Facundo Martin, Jean-Pierre Lacombe (IFC) authored the Focus section this
month. Andrew Burns provided overall guidance. This note is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.
March 2010
The global recovery continues to gain momentum; but increasingly domestic, country-
specific factors are coming to play a much larger role in the shape of recovery. While
fourth quarter GDP growth was strong in the United States (reflecting strong exports, fiscal stimulus and
the inventory cycle) and Japan (due to robust exports, production and the beginning of spillovers to busi-
ness investment and household spending), industrial production growth in China (where the inventory
cycle is more mature) appears to be slowing. And in Europe growth stalled, in part because spending
incentives are coming to an end; the weight of high unemployment is depressing consumer sentiment,
and the financial sector remains weak. As a result, the Euro Area is now lagging in recovery, and a fall-
back to recession cannot be ruled out.
Growth in world exports and production is stepping up, as high-income countries find
receptive markets for capital goods and durables. Japanese export volumes surged to 40%
growth in January from a decline of 22% during the third quarter of 2009 (saar), on the back of increas-
ing demand in China and Asia. In similar fashion, U.S. exports registered 28% gains (saar), helping to
spur manufacturing output, with glimmers of employment growth on the horizon. For developing coun-
tries as a group, exports have stepped up to 38% in December. But despite robust growth, levels of
trade and production still remain below pre-crisis figures (2007) by 27-and 18 percent respectively, high-
lighting the toll taken on world economic activity by the financial crisis.
Following the surge of capital flows toward the end of last year, inflows to developing
countries have eased but remain about 48% higher than a year ago. Flows remain, however,
49% below their levels in 2007. Bank lending is especially weak, leading a larger number of emerging
market corporates to tap the bond market. And sovereign spreads have narrowed from this year’s high
341 basis points in early February to 271 points at present.
The Focus section reviews the Greek debt situation and implications for developing countries,
with a brief look at banking exposures of Greek institutions, their claims and liabilities.
Japan‟s exports to China surge to
80% growth export volumes: Japan to China, other Asia and ROW, ch% (yr/yr)
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Total exports
China
Other Asia
Rest of World
Source: Japan- METI.
Though recovering, production remains
below pre-crisis peaks in most countriespercentage difference from peak pre-crisis level
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
Page 2
March 18, 2010
page 2 External Environment for Developing Countries
Global Indicators
Global Indicators
(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)
2007 2008 2009e 2010f
GDP volume: World 3.9 1.7 -2.2 2.7
Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 5.0 2.7 -1.0 3.5
High-income countries 2.6 0.4 -3.3 2.3
Developing countries 8.1 5.6 1.2 5.2
Industrial production: World 4.7 0.6 -8.0 ...
High-income countries 2.6 -1.8 -12.8 ...
Developing countries 9.7 6.0 1.7 ...
Export volume (GNFS): World 7.2 3.0 -14.4 4.3
High-income countries 6.2 2.1 -15.4 3.4
Developing countries 9.8 5.3 -11.7 6.4
Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 6.0 -4.9 1.5
Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 61.8 76.0
Non-oil commodities 17.1 21.0 -21.6 5.3
Nominal interest rates:
$LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 5.20 3.20 1.15 1.80
€LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.30 4.80 1.50 2.20
Financial flows
FDI ($billion) 520 583 ... ...
Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 652 389 289 353353353
Equity placement ($bn) 194 68 84 109109109
Bond financing ($bn) 146 65 151 115115115
Lending ($bn) 312 257 54 128128128
Source: DECPG, March 2010. Estimates and projections for 2009 and 2010 based on GEP-2010, released January 21, 2010.
Note: a. Gross inflows 2010 based on preliminary year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month.
Page 3
March 18, 2010
page 3 External Environment for Developing Countries
OECD countries
Good U.S. growth following bad weather.
The severe winter weather that gripped the Eastern
part of the United States in February put a damper on
recorded output, employment and spending. Produc-
tion gained a solid 0.9% in January (m/m), but will have
subsided in February, as have housing starts and per-
mits. Claims for jobless insurance increased 31,000 in
the week ending February 12—an unexpectedly large
number of layoffs, and employment declined by 36,000
in the month, putting a dent in a long improving trend.
Retail sales inched 0.1% higher in February. But early
indicators for March show improvement, with Federal
Reserve Surveys highlighting increases in order books
and better prospects for employment growth in the
months ahead.
U.S. export performance moves up. A brighter
spot is the improved performance of U.S. exports, as
demand in high-income countries comes to comple-
ment burgeoning imports among developing countries
(see International Trade). Though U.S. exports faltered
in January, momentum remains quite strong, with ex-
port volumes increasing at a 30-35% annualized pace
in the final months of 2009 (saar). Capital goods orders
are now benefitting from both domestic and foreign
demand, and firmed to 16% growth in January from
4.4% as recently as October 2009. Spillovers to factory
output, employment and spending are likely over the
coming months. The recent extension of unemploy-
ment benefits by Congress, together with additional
funding for job creation should facilitate this process.
Stronger view for U.S. and Japan. U.S. and
Japanese GDP were quite strong in the final quarter of
2009. Though stocks accounted for 3.9-of 5.9 points of
growth in the United States, private investment turned
the corner and exports picked up 23% (saar). In Japan,
a mix of strong government and private outlays, to-
gether with 22% export growth provided a better bal-
ance to recovery. Europe has not been so fortunate. A
common positive factor is export strength, but Euro
Area growth of 0.4% in 2009-Q4 lacked support from
household or government spending, and investment
remained in decline. Recent Consensus projections, as
well as those of the EEC have marked down Euro Area
growth to below 1% for 2010.
Vagaries of February weather put a dent in uptrend of retail spending and job loss
change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; retail sales x autos, ch% (saar) [R]
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
Source: U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce.
retail x autos [R]
change in employment [L]
Strong U.S. exports underpin gains in
capital goods orders and productiongoods export volumes and capital goods orders,ch% saar
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Capital goods orders
Exports
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10
Market expectations firm for U.SGDP growth in 2010
Consensus mean GDP growth: forecast for 2010 sampled during 2009/10
Source: Consensus Economics LLC.
Forecast Date in 2009/10:
Euro Area
Japan
United States
Page 4
March 18, 2010
page 4 External Environment for Developing Countries
Japan‟s export surge. Exports jumped 8.6% in
January (m/m) driving up year-on-year growth in Ja-
pan’s shipments abroad to 40%, the fastest pace in
almost 30 years. External demand for Japanese
automobiles and high-tech equipment in particular
continued to underpin exports and recovery in the
domestic industrial sector. Shipments to the United
States increased for the first time in 2 years (y/y)
while those to China grew in annual terms for a third
month running. More impressive is Japan’s response
to Chinese demand (up 80% y/y), and to other Asian
customers (63% export gains.) But exports outside of
Asia breached into positive territory only in January
to record an 18% advance.
European spending. Unemployment in the Euro
Area remained steady at 9.9% in January. But the
latest report revealed that 38,000 more people were
laid off in the month, bringing the total number of un-
employed persons to 15.7 million. Both business and
consumer confidence have been shaken by Greece’s
debt difficulties, the fall of the euro and stagnation in
German GDP in the final quarter of 2009. The IFO
index of German business confidence dropped for
the first in 11 months; the Italian ISAE consumer con-
fidence index declined for a second month as in-
creasing concern about jobs clouds the economic
outlook. In France, consumer spending fell 2.7% in
January (m/m) as incentives for automobile pur-
chases were reduced. And the bellwether business
index of the Belgian National Bank was unchanged in
February, after gaining for 10 months in succession.
Surprise easing in German shipments. Mo-
mentum of German industrial production slowed over
the last two months to just 1.9% from 13% in the third
quarter (saar), a key element in the downdraft in
GDP witnessed during the final quarter of 2009. A
driving force is a largely unexpected downturn in ex-
port growth from 50% annualized rates in November
2009 to 5% in January 2010 (saar). Severe weather
across Europe may have played a role in dampening
exports by hampering production and freight logis-
tics. But export orders have softened in the last
months, economic conditions remain weak in Central
and Eastern Europe, and the longer trend apprecia-
tion of the euro may be affecting competitiveness
with a lag.
Japan‟s exports to China surge to
80% growth export volumes: Japan to China, other Asia and ROW, ch% (yr/yr)
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Total exports
China
Other Asia
Rest of World
Source: Japan- METI.
Household spending remains the
“Achilles Heel” of European recoveryretail sales volumes, ch% (yr/yr)
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Euro Area Germany France
Source: Eurostat.
Page 5
March 18, 2010
page 5 External Environment for Developing Countries
Country Focus: Russia
The latest macroeconomic data for Russia
conveys a mixed picture. Modest economic recov-
ery continued into the first quarter of 2010 with both trad-
able and non-tradable sectors reporting positive trends.
But unemployment remains at high levels, negatively
affecting income and consumption growth. Credit condi-
tions remain very tight, while banks still struggle with non-
performing and delinquent loans in an attempt to improve
the quality of their assets. Recovery in investment is
slow, mostly in inventories, while capital spending re-
mains depressed, constrained by limited credit availabil-
ity. We expect growth to remain rather weak throughout
2010, driven in large part by modest gains in consump-
tion, and base effects reflecting low levels of activity in the
first two quarters of 2009.
Output measures show continuing recovery.
Production increased 7.8% in January 2010 (y-o-y), with
manufacturing industries reporting growth of 7.6%,
mostly reflecting the low base of 2009. Unemployment is
anticipated to remain around 9% in 2010-Q1 with some
improvement through the year as a result of seasonal
employment. Recent and planned increases and indexa-
tion of pensions, coupled with increased public sector
wages are expected to provide a boost to household
incomes. And retail trade reports modest growth (0.3%)
in January (m/m) after declining 6.1% in the final quarter
of 2009. Inflation continued to ease in February, with CPI
registering 12-month inflation of 7.2%.
Banking and BoP flows sustainable. The cur-
rent account is expected to deteriorate slightly, affected
by stronger import growth and lower oil prices, while the
capital account will remain volatile, largely reflecting un-
certainty regarding resource prices and oil in particular.
Despite fears of widespread defaults, both banking and
non-financial corporate sectors have successfully ser-
viced their debt obligations in 2009. And with access to
external borrowing gradually improving, larger banks and
corporations should be able to finance and/or rollover
their debt obligations in 2010. According to the CBR,
banks will have to pay about $34 billion and corporations
about $70 billion in principal and interest during 2010.
Recent changes in exchange rate management suggest
that the CBR intends to make its policy less predictable
to avoid possible carry-trades and speculation of a fresh
appreciation of the ruble.
Total industrial production
and output of basic industries
Source: Rosstat.
production, ch% (yr/yr)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
IP total
IP basic industsry
Oil price and balance on goods trade Brent crude oil price ($/bbl) [L]; trade balance, $bn [R]
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Source: Rosstat, World Bank staff estimates.
balance of trade [R]
crude oil price [L]
Russian equity markets reflect expectations
of stronger global economic recovery
Source: Bloomberg.
S&P-500 and RTS indices
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
S&P 500 Index
RTS Index
Page 6
March 18, 2010
page 6 External Environment for Developing Countries
Industrial Production
Global manufacturing PMI suggests firms
see stronger demand ahead. The global new
orders PMI remained above the “50”-growth mark,
while the inventory index increased close to its long-
term average in February—notwithstanding adverse
weather conditions that disrupted activity in the
United States and Europe, and the Lunar New Year
celebrations across East Asia. Improved confidence
about the economic recovery has made firms a bit
less concerned about cutting costs, as they rebuild
depleted inventories and give consideration to pay-
rolls, this underscored by the global PMI employ-
ment index, which increased to 51.4 in February, a
second month the employment index exceed the 50-
growth mark. The output PMI retreated to 57.4 in
February from 60.2 in January, but it remains at a
high level, indicating that manufacturing should con-
tinue to expand in the coming months.
China‟s inventory cycle waning? China’s
production growth turned negative in the three
months ending February 2010 (saar), signaling that
its inventory cycle is likely to have run its course, and
that the contribution to growth from replenishment of
stocks has ended. Interpretation of January-February
data is complicated by the timing of the Lunar New
Year celebration—however the slowdown cannot be
disputed. Other emerging economies have yet to
complete the full inventory cycle, as is the case in
South Africa where momentum continues strongly.
Will the slowdown in China’s production act as a
leading indicator for other developing countries?
Expiring auto incentives to weaken manu-
facturing output growth. Several countries that
witnessed strong revival in factory activity in the sec-
ond half of 2009 had auto sale incentive programs as
part of government stimulus measures. As these pro-
grams have recently expired in the United States,
Korea, Australia, and most Euro Zone countries—or
are about to in Brazil, India, and the U.K.—growth in
industrial production is expected to slow in the
months ahead. By effectively front-loading demand,
these programs pushed global car sales to an all-
time high 54.3mn units in January 2010 (seasonally
adjusted annualized rate, JP Morgan).
Leading indicators suggest companies are
gearing up for stronger demandPMI Index sa, 50+ = Expansion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb. 09 Oct. 09 Nov. 09 Dec. 09 Jan. 10 Feb. 10
Output New orders Employment
Source: JPMorgan.
China‟s IP growth leveling off
as its inventory cycle comes to an end
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
Industrial production, ch% saar
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
China South Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
Brazil China
Korea India
automobile sales, Q1 2008=100
Industrial output momentum likely to slow as auto sales incentive programs expire
First month of
sales incentives
(Brazil, India)
(China, Korea)
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
Page 7
March 18, 2010
page 7 External Environment for Developing Countries
International Trade
Global trade on a rebound. Following a sharp
drop in early 2009, trade is recovering. Robust import
demand from developing countries has been driving
this acceleration. Developing countries’ imports in
value terms have been growing faster than high-
income countries. Imports of the former were up at
an annualized pace of 64% in January 2010 (saar),
contrasted with 37% in imports of high-income coun-
tries. Demand from emerging markets has also been
responsible for some 40 percent of the expansion in
global exports. By the end of 2009 exports were ad-
vancing at an annualized rate of 47%. However,
trade has not recovered to its pre-crisis trend. Import
values for both developing and high-income coun-
tries remain about 20% lower than pre-crisis levels.
Trade varies by regions and income
groups. Import and export growth has been far
stronger in developing- than high-income countries.
For developing countries, EAP and LAC showed
strong growth in both imports and exports. Notably,
import growth outpaced export growth in all regions,
with the exception of LAC and ECA. In particular,
import growth for South Asia (SAS) was substantially
higher than export growth, a result of robust demand
in India.
Protectionism remains muted. Since October
2008 the G20 countries implemented 75% of a total
374 trade restrictive measures. But according to a
recent WTO/UNCTAD/OECD report, full-scale esca-
lation of protectionism has largely been averted. The
coverage of trade restrictive policies (new import re-
strictions and trade remedy initiations) has been lim-
ited to about 0.4% of world imports. In addition, G-20
countries have implemented trade liberalizing meas-
ures and terminated trade remedy investigations.
Though initiation of anti-dumping investigations by
G20 countries in 2009 was 21% less than in 2008,
countervailing duty and safeguard investigations
have both increased substantially. Given lags be-
tween initiation and imposition of trade remedies, a
backlog of ongoing investigations could increase the
number of barriers imposed in 2010. And “murky pro-
tectionism” that is more difficult to quantify and cate-
gorize—including state emergency interventions and
“buy local” requirements—remains pervasive.
Trend growth of imports in developing and high-income countriesimports in value, index Aug 2008=100, log scale
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-00 Sep-01 May-03 Jan-05 Sep-06 May-08 Jan-10
Dev Trend growth
Dev Actual growth
HIY Trend growth
HIY Actual growth
Source: World Bank data.
Import and export growth by region
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
HIY DEV SSA ECA SAS LAC EAP
Imports
Exports
annualized growth rates (saar)**
Source: World Bank data.**Note: All data for Jan-2010, except SSA which ends in Nov-2009
G20 countries: trade-restrictive and
liberalizing measures**
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
United States
Turkey
South Korea
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Mexico
Indonesia
India
Japan
EU
China
Canada
Brazil
Australia
Argentina
Liberalizations Restrictions
Source: WTO/UNCTAD/OECD. **Note: Oct-08 to Feb-10
Page 8
March 18, 2010
page 8 External Environment for Developing Countries
Commodity Prices
Oil demand rising. Global oil demand turned
positive in Q4-09 after falling for five consecutive
quarters. OECD demand remains negative, having
declined for more-than four years. But the falloff has
moderated, with Q1-10 demand expected to drop
only 0.8mb/d or 1.6% (y/y) before turning marginally
positive in Q2-10. Recent U.S. data show that de-
mand is now in positive territory, with the latest 4-
week tally up 3.8% (y/y). But much of the growth has
been in non-transport fuels. Among non-OECD coun-
tries, demand growth has been concentrated in
China, with Q4-09 up a resounding 17% (y/y). More
than half of growth was for petrochemical feedstock,
the result of new capacity. Thus growth in Chinese oil
demand related to petrochemicals should moderate
in future.
Oil prices up on views of tighter markets.
Crude oil prices (World Bank average) have now
traded between $70-80/bbl for more than five
months. Prices have trended near the upper end of
the range in March, briefly exceeding $80/bbl, as oil
market fundamentals continued to tighten slowly on
falling stocks and rising demand. Crude oil stocks
have fallen from peaks of a year ago, though they
remain high in the United States and Europe. Prod-
uct stocks have also dropped from their highs, but a
global surplus in distillates persists due to the severe
slump in commercial transport. OPEC met March
17th and left output quotas unchanged, stating cur-
rent prices are acceptable and demand is starting to
pick up.
Oil futures rise. Oil futures prices (U.S. WTI on
NYMEX) have moved higher in step with the gains in
spot prices over the past year, with contract prices
for December 2018 near $95/bbl. A year ago oil fu-
tures prices were in steep contango (future prices
above current prices) reflecting the plunge in demand
and burgeoning surplus. The curve has flattened as
the market moves towards balance, and is due in
part to significant volumes of oil that OPEC removed
from the market. The forward curve remains in mild
contango as the market remains in surplus, but the
flattening and recent strength reflects investor expec-
tations of a tighter market. Near-by prices also coin-
cide with OPEC’s desire for a range of $70-80/bbl.
Growth in U.S. oil demand now positive (y/y)(3 month moving average)
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Other
Gasoline
Distillate
Resid
kb/d
Source: U.S. EIA and DECPG.
Oil prices and OECD oil stocks
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
$/bbl million bbl
Oil price [L scale]
OECD stocks [R scale]
Source: U.S. EIA and DECPG.
WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Mar 16 2010
$/bbl
Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014*
for select dates in 2009-10
Feb 18
Jul 13
Dec 31
Source: NYMEX.
Page 9
March 18, 2010
page 9 External Environment for Developing Countries
Agriculture prices fall after string of gains.
Food prices fell 3.6% in February after four straight
monthly gains. All indices declined on generally im-
proved supply conditions, particularly soybeans and
maize in Brazil and Argentina, respectively. Food
prices are up 12% (y/y) led by a 29% increase in the
“other food” category owing to a doubling of sugar
prices—this due to a shortfall in India’s production
and higher import demand. Grains prices are the one
group lower than a year earlier due to abundant har-
vests. Beverage prices also fell in February following
gains in 9 of the previous 10 months. Prices are up
21% (y/y) led by a 35% increase in tea prices due to
drought in Kenya and India. Cocoa and coffee prices
are also higher on production shortfalls.
Metals demand surges in China in 2009.
World metals demand (six LME base metals)
dropped 1.4% in 2009, the first decline since 2001.
But China’s demand surged by 23% to 31 million
tons—represented 41% of global consumption, up
from 13% in 2000. [These figures are apparent de-
mand and include significant stocking in China]. Out-
side China, metals demand fell by more than 13%,
with the bulk in OECD countries—half of which in
Europe, with the largest pace of decline among the
group (26%). During this decade China’s metal con-
sumption increased 17% per year; outside China,
annual demand declined 1.1%: other developing
countries displayed moderate gains, while OECD
witnessed a drop of nearly 4% per year.
Metals prices volatile on demand con-
cerns. Metals prices are up sharply over the last
year, with copper more-than doubling, and zinc, lead
and nickel not far behind. Gains were due to robust
import demand in China—some of which went into
stocks, both government and private—together with
large production cuts during the recession. A revival
in prices has been accompanied by higher LME
stocks, as anticipated restocking outside China has
yet to materialize, though demand is picking up.
Prices have been quite volatile this year, with con-
cerns of slowing Chinese consumption weighing on
prices. Nickel prices have been strongest due to a
recovery in stainless steel production, and strikes at
Vale’s Canadian operations, now in their 8th month.
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Grains
Fats & Oils
Other Food
Beverages
Food and beverage prices fall in
February(2000=100)
Source: DECPG.
Nickel prices surge on strong stainless
steel production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
$/ton „000 tons
Nickel price
LME stocks
Source: LME and DECPG.
Page 10
March 18, 2010
page 10 External Environment for Developing Countries
International Finance
Weak February flows tied to bonds. Capital
flows halved to $16 billion in February, due to a falter-
ing in bond issuance. But flows for the first two months
of the year amount to $48 billion, up 48% from $33
billion in the like period of 2009. After a barrage of issu-
ance in January, bond sales faltered to $5 billion as the
market took a seasonal hiatus. Demand in February
was also influenced by Greece’s debt crisis. Though
issuance slowed in the month, the pipeline remains full,
with many sovereigns announcing plans to issue in
coming months. Much supply is expected from Emerg-
ing European sovereigns, including Russia, Poland,
Romania, Ukraine, and Albania. Indeed, issuance has
picked up sharply in the first half of March, with $10
billion placed. Bank lending remains persistently weak,
underscoring that bank recapitalization is a lengthy
process. Equity was stable at $7 billion in February.
EM: comparatively low debt burden? The
spotlight on sovereign risk in southern Europe sug-
gests that the fiscal/debt dynamics in a number of ad-
vanced economies has become troublesome. The
Euro Area’s fiscal deficit more than tripled on average
from 2% of GDP in 2008 to 6.2% at the end of 2009,
with public debt reaching 78% of GDP. Several so-
called peripheral European economies (including
Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) posted an aver-
age fiscal deficit of 11% of GDP (up from 6.6% in
2008) with a debt/GDP ratio of 77.5%. Many EM sover-
eigns are in better shape than several developed coun-
tries, since they would require relatively small fiscal
adjustments to secure their respective debt burdens.
EM spreads stabile; U.S. yields up. EM bond
spreads eased from this year’s high 341 basis points
(bps) of early-February to their current 271 level.
Spreads remain 70 bps above the average posted dur-
ing the 18-month period ending June 2007; but they
are now below levels seen before the Lehman collapse
of September 2008. While spreads have been steady
since October 2009, U.S. Treasury yields increased 53
bps since end-November. The possibility of G3 policy
tightening over coming months could have a significant
impact on EM bonds. The 2004 experience (last time
the Fed began to hike rates after a protracted easing)
shows that the spike in UST yields triggered a substan-
tial widening of EM spreads.
Bonds slump…carrying February
flows to $16 billion
Source: DECPG.
$ billion
Q1 Total Jan Feb Q1 Total Jan Feb
Total 103 390 24 9 48 353 32 16
Bonds 12 65 9 6 18 115 20 5
Banks 71 257 9 2 22 129 4 5
Equity 20 68 6 1 8 109 7 7
Lat. America 19 90 10 3 21 137 8 4
Bonds 5 20 5 3 10 62 7 1
E. Europe 36 157 4 0 6 72 12 2
Bonds 2 35 2 0 4 33 7 1
Asia 38 98 9 5 18 122 12 7
Bonds 3 7 2 3 5 16 7 2
Others 11 45 1 1 3 22 0.2 3
2009 20102008
Fiscal and debt positions in 2009-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Public debt %GDP, 2009
Publi
c bala
nce %
GDP,
2009
Source: JPMorgan, Barclays Capital and World Bank.
Greece
Italy
United States
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.3
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
EMBIG spreads [L]
U.S. ten-year note [R]
Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan and World Bank.
EM spreads on downward path but UST benchmark yield stepping up
EMBIG spreads in basis points [Left] and U.S. Treasury 10yr note [right]
Page 11
March 18, 2010
page 11 External Environment for Developing Countries
Currencies
Greek debt amplifies euro movements. The
weakness of the euro eased over the course of
March, with the currency moving from $1.3560 on the
first of the month to $1.3762 by the twelfth, as con-
cerns regarding the Greek debt problem began to
wane in foreign exchange markets. But the Greek
effect, among other factors has cost the euro 4% of
its dollar value since the turn of the year. During this
episode, the yen has traded in a volatile fashion
(coefficient of variation: 0.75), but picked up a net
2.8% against the greenback. Both currency swings
are now being driven by shifts in expectations for
economic growth. With building strength- and better
balance- in domestic demand and trade in the United
States and Japan, and limited-, lone-sided develop-
ments in Europe (see OECD).
Diversity in REERs. In this measure of a cur-
rency index we get a better feel for the competitive-
ness of a country’s exports through both the relative
nominal exchange rate and relative inflation perform-
ance. Developments highlight three points of inter-
est: (i) appreciation in the REERs of commodity cur-
rencies, e.g. Brazilian real and Indonesian rupiah,
stems from substantial nominal gains (tied in part to
international commodity prices) augmented by favor-
able relative inflation performance; (ii) the real euro
exchange rate has indeed appreciated little despite
the jump in euro/dollar cross rate through much of
the last two years. And (iii) the Chinese RMB in real
effective terms has shown a tendency toward depre-
ciation, in large part following the dollar after the re-
linkage of the yuan to the USD two years ago.
Treasuries preferred. U.S. capital account data
for February show that foreign investors continue to
give short shrift to U.S. private sector assets
(especially bonds) in favor of U.S. Treasuries. With
the “flight to quality” almost wholly dissipated, it
would be expected that the higher yields on corpo-
rate paper would be attractive for international buy-
ers. This apparently is not the case. In February, for-
eigners sold a net $25 billion in corporate bonds,
while purchasing a net $62 billion in Treasuries. Over
the course of the last year, this has meant an in-
crease of $223 billion in foreign holdings of Treasur-
ies, and a shift from purchase of $95 billion to $45
billion in sales of U.S. corporate bonds. Stay tuned!
85.00
87.50
90.00
92.50
95.001.350
1.390
1.430
1.470
1.510
1.550
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
yen/USD
USD/Euro (inverse)
Euro volatile against dollar in Feb/March yen holds steady during Greek crisis
USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]
REERs show a range of recent
developments across key countries
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Argentina
Source: Morgan-Stanley, IMF and World Bank.
real effective exchange rates, index January 2007=100
Brazil
China
Indonesia
Germany
United States
Foreign investors continue to prefer
U.S. government assets
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Private Securities
Government Securities
Source: U.S. Treasury.
net flows into U.S. Treasuries / GSEs; coporate bonds and equity, $bn, 3mma
Page 12
March 18, 2010
page 12 External Environment for Developing Countries
Focus: Southern Euro Zone
Contraction with twin deficits. The economies
of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain con-
tracted in 2009 as a consequence of the global crisis,
made worse by idiosyncratic problems such as the
end of the construction boom in Spain and a large
reliance on foreign trade and capital inflows in Ire-
land. Large twin deficits increased the vulnerability of
these countries to the global slowdown, probably with
the exception of Italy where both deficits are signifi-
cantly below those of its peers. The Greek external
deficit has been in double digits since 2006, while
Spain and Portugal have been fluctuating below 10%
of GDP. The rigidity of the Greek economy coupled
with large debt roll-overs is of concern to investors.
Ballooning fiscal deficits. Greece, Ireland, and
Spain have experienced ballooning budget deficits,
reaching double digits in 2009; 4 years ago Spain
and Ireland were recording large surpluses as capital
flowed in. On top of the growing fiscal gaps, gross
national savings are at low levels—particularly in
Greece at some 3-4% of GDP. Portugal and Ireland
show national savings slightly over 10% of GDP,
while only Spain has comparable levels to the larger
EU economies (near 20% of GDP). The case of
Greece is the most challenging, since national sav-
ings are well below the fiscal deficit. It also faces
debt payments of €20bn in March-April 2010 and a
total of €53bn for 2010. Without room to maneuver in
monetary, exchange rate-, and fiscal policies (due to
high debt) the coming adjustment will be painful.
Sovereign risk in Greece. The challenge faced
by the Greek sovereign has led to downgrades: S&P
moved Greece to BBB+, to levels of South Africa and
Thailand, but its CDS spreads are 200bps higher.
Greek banks like Alpha Bank and NBG are showing
CDS spreads more-than 250bps over the mean val-
ues for their credit rating. Concerns over political will
and the feasibility of Greek adjustment plans have
forced the government to adopt ever more stringent
fiscal measures. The last plan, announced March 10,
included substantial spending cuts and tax hikes, and
was welcomed by markets. Any adjustment will likely
lead to a prolonged contraction, higher unemploy-
ment, and social tensions.
Current account balance (% GDP)
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain
2007 2008 2009 2010F
Source: World Bank.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain
Fiscal Balance
Gross National Savings
Fiscal balance and national saving (% GDP)
Source: World Bank, EIU and JPMorgan.
BNP Paribas
SantanderBBVA
Intesa SanpaoloHSBC
Nordea
Credit Agricole
Barclays Deutsche SG
UBS
Caixa Gral
Dexia
Credit SuisseING
Commerzbank
Unicredit
Swedbank
LloydsRBSErste
Bco Espirito SantoRaiffeisen
KBC Groep
Banco Comm. Portuges
AIB
50
100
150
200
250
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
bp
s
Long Term Credit Rating - Local currency
Alpha Bank 443
NBG 428Banks of southern Euro
Zone countries in RED
AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+
Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poor’s
CDS spread by credit ratingas of March 12, 2010 – basis points
Page 13
March 18, 2010
page 13 External Environment for Developing Countries
Southern European banks in Euro Zone
with large exposure to Eastern Europe.
Banks in southern Euro Zone have relatively impor-
tant claims on emerging economies, representing
over 25% of GDP in Spain and 19% of GDP in
Greece. Except for Spanish banks, which are almost
entirely exposed to Latin America, and Portuguese
banks (the more diversified of the group, with rela-
tively sizable exposures to LAC, Eastern Europe, and
the Middle East/Africa), the other 3 countries in the
group are mainly exposed to Eastern Europe, the
most troubled region among emerging markets.
Greek banks have total foreign claims of $104bn (or
30% of GDP) to developed and emerging countries,
of which $64.3bn are due in 1-year or less, repre-
senting 18.6% of GDP. Total claims to emerging
countries accounted for almost $67bn of the total.
ECA vulnerable to problems in Greek
banks. Greek banks have a considerable exposure
to Central and Eastern Europe- over $60bn or almost
18% of Greek GDP. Ninety percent of those claims
are concentrated in 4 countries: Turkey, Romania,
Bulgaria, and Serbia. But they also have a large ex-
posure to high-income countries such as the UK,
Cyprus, and the United States. Trouble in the Greek
banking sector, as viewed in high spreads, implies a
vulnerable situation for some of these developing
countries. Claims of Greek banks represent a sizable
share of GDP in economies like Bulgaria (39% of
GDP), Romania (25%), Serbia (21%), or smaller
countries such as Montenegro (98% of GDP) or
Croatia (53%). Should Greek banks reduce activity in
some of these countries, local economies may be
affected.
Banks in Western Europe are also vulner-
able to problems in Greece. The other side of
the coin is that of Western European banks with im-
portant claims on Greece. Swiss banks hold claims
totaling $64bn, or over 13% of Swiss GDP. French
banks, on their side, have claims of $75bn (2.8% of
GDP) and German banks have claims of $43bn
(1.3% of GDP) on Greece. Recent hints of support
from EU nations are encouraging to avert more dam-
age to their banking systems. Even with this support,
Greece may be forced to endure a drastic adjustment
on the path to sustainability.
20.6
19.1
10.5
9.8
9.8
4.94.8
24.5
64.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Total Claims Claims under 1yr
Others
Serbia
US
Cyprus
UK
Bulgaria
Romania
Turkey
18.6% of GDP
Total: $104bn = 30 % of GDP
Foreign claims by Greek banksbillions USD
Source: BIS.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Germany France Switzerland UK Italy
$64bn
$75bn
$43bn
$12bn $8bn
Claims of Western European banks on
Greecepercent of lender’s GDP
Source: BIS.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
EE LAC Africa / ME Asia
Claims of southern Euro Zone banks on EMsas percent of Lender’s GDP
Source: BIS.
Page 14
March 18, 2010
page 14 External Environment for Developing Countries
Average 2009 2009 20101999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan
World 2.8 4.7 0.6 -8.1 -22.0 5.8 12.5 8.8 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.0High - in come cou n tries 1.4 2.6 -1.7 -12.8 -30.9 1.3 12.0 6.5 -0.1 0.8 0.7 1.5
Industrial countries 1.4 2.7 -2.0 -13.0 -31.1 0.2 12.1 6.3 -0.1 0.9 0.5 1.4United States 1.3 1.5 -2.2 -9.7 -19.0 -10.4 6.4 6.6 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.9Japan 1.1 2.9 -3.2 -21.7 -61.6 34.0 32.2 18.8 0.5 2.2 1.7 2.8Euro Area 1.2 3.5 -2.0 -14.7 -31.7 -5.3 12.2 1.3 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 1.9United Kindgom -0.4 0.3 -3.1 -10.2 -18.0 -2.1 -4.0 1.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 -0.5
Other high income 2.1 5.0 1.2 -7.2 -14.7 9.2 12.2 4.2 -0.9 1.1 0.6 ..Hong Kong (China) .. -1.5 -6.6 -8.4 -9.2 -3.7 -7.8 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 ..Singapore 6.3 6.2 -4.0 -4.4 -24.8 74.0 19.2 -29.1 0.4 -11.0 19.9 14.0Taiwan (China) 4.7 8.1 -1.4 -8.3 -30.2 93.5 39.9 52.0 2.2 3.7 5.5 0.8
Dev elopin g cou n tries -210.3 9.8 6.0 1.8 -1.8 14.4 13.2 13.1 1.2 0.8 1.3 -2.7East Asia and Pacific 20.8 15.2 11.1 8.9 10.9 24.4 14.8 15.9 1.3 0.9 1.6 -4.1
China 15.2 18.0 12.7 11.2 14.9 26.4 16.6 15.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 -4.6Indonesia 3.4 5.6 3.1 1.4 9.9 0.6 -5.1 14.4 3.7 1.5 1.3 0.6Thailand 8.6 8.2 5.3 -5.2 -29.0 43.9 16.2 42.7 0.8 -0.1 10.7 -5.6Malaysia 5.8 1.2 0.9 -7.7 -17.9 9.2 10.4 11.4 5.3 -3.5 1.2 2.5
Europe and Central Asia 5.1 7.2 1.2 -8.3 -15.5 4.6 10.5 14.9 2.5 0.9 0.5 ..Russian Federation 5.5 6.3 2.3 -10.7 -22.8 -2.2 10.2 8.9 -1.0 3.5 -0.5 ..Turkey 3.7 6.9 -0.8 -9.8 -20.4 16.2 13.8 33.2 14.2 -6.6 5.1 ..Poland 6.3 9.5 2.0 -3.7 -6.2 9.4 6.0 10.4 -0.1 4.2 -3.2 2.5Czech Republic 4.8 10.4 -2.0 -13.2 -20.5 1.3 11.2 4.2 0.2 -0.6 1.7 ..
Latin America and Caribbean 1.5 4.2 0.7 -6.7 -17.2 2.4 10.3 8.3 1.1 0.3 0.2 -0.6Brazil 3.3 5.9 2.9 -7.2 -23.6 17.9 20.3 16.0 2.9 -0.8 -0.2 1.1Mexico .. 1.8 -0.9 -7.0 -19.9 -2.2 7.3 9.9 1.5 0.8 1.0 -0.2Argentina 2.7 7.3 0.7 -5.7 -12.2 17.8 7.3 5.5 -0.9 3.0 0.3 -0.4Colombia 2.7 10.8 -3.1 -5.9 -4.1 -4.1 2.7 4.9 -0.5 0.0 2.7 ..
Middle East and North Africa 1.6 -0.4 1.6 -1.0 -6.1 5.6 4.4 .. 0.4 -0.3 0.4 ..Saudi Arabia 1.0 -4.8 6.2 -10.9 -30.6 1.4 4.8 .. 1.0 -0.5 0.1 ..Iran 1.1 -2.9 3.6 -0.3 -9.0 6.8 -1.5 .. 0.2 0.2 -0.1 ..Egypt .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 3.9 1.0 -0.5 -1.9 -10.1 1.0 12.1 .. -0.3 -0.3 0.2 ..
South Asia 6.8 9.1 4.1 5.6 2.1 15.9 20.4 12.4 -0.5 2.3 3.1 0.2India 6.7 9.8 4.4 6.6 4.5 15.8 21.4 12.0 -1.7 3.4 3.2 0.3Pakistan 6.7 5.5 -0.6 -5.0 -20.6 11.8 15.2 14.1 9.7 -7.0 3.0 1.1Bangladesh .. 5.6 8.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. 6.3 3.5 -7.1 -16.5 -4.2 11.3 8.0 0.7 0.4 1.4 ..South Africa 2.5 4.6 0.8 -12.3 -22.6 -11.2 11.1 14.4 0.4 1.0 2.9 -0.6Nigeria .. 0.2 1.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:OECD 1.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China 3.5 5.4 1.9 -4.4 -12.2 6.2 10.6 11.7 1.4 0.6 1.3 -1.1Developing oil exporters 0.8 3.6 1.0 -5.8 -13.0 -0.2 5.7 6.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 ..Dev. non-oil exporters -213.7 13.0 8.3 5.2 3.5 21.1 16.4 15.9 1.4 0.7 1.6 -3.2Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change
over previous month a/)
aIn general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and
utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the
country is a major oil producer.
Page 15
March 18, 2010
page 15 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weight Average 2009 2009 20101995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan
Real GDP a
High - in come cou n tries 78.6 2.3 2.6 0.3 .. 0.5 2.6 .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 75.4 2.3 2.5 0.3 .. 0.0 2.0 .. .. .. .. ..
United States 11.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 .. -0.7 2.2 5.9 .. .. .. ..Japan 20.6 1.3 2.3 -1.2 .. 2.7 1.3 4.6 .. .. .. ..Euro Area 27.2 2.0 2.7 0.5 .. -0.5 1.7 0.3 .. .. .. ..United Kindgom 6.5 2.6 2.6 0.5 .. -2.7 -0.6 0.4 .. .. .. ..
Other high income 3.2 4.3 6.1 1.8 .. 17.2 24.5 .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) 0.7 .. 6.4 2.4 .. 7.4 34.0 .. .. .. .. ..Singapore 0.4 5.6 7.8 1.2 .. 21.7 14.2 .. .. .. .. ..Taiwan (China) 1.4 3.8 6.0 0.7 .. 29.2 32.7 .. .. .. .. ..
Real merch an dis e imports b
High - in come cou n tries .. 9.4 2.4 -15.9 1.9 39.7 25.2 -1.1 1.1 3.4 -4.0Industrial countries .. 9.5 2.1 -16.3 -1.0 41.7 25.1 -1.1 0.9 3.3 -5.0
United States 8.2 1.1 -3.7 -16.5 -16.6 22.1 11.7 -4.1 2.2 3.9 -3.6Japan 5.2 -0.1 13.4 -4.3 -6.2 .. .. -7.2 2.2 2.4 -2.9Euro Area .. 13.9 6.4 -15.4 2.5 48.9 26.7 0.3 -0.3 1.7 -5.5United Kindgom 6.3 10.4 -9.9 -26.9 9.3 24.4 36.4 0.2 2.1 5.4 ..
Other high income 5.5 17.1 3.0 -19.3 13.3 48.0 42.7 -0.5 2.4 4.2 2.3Hong Kong (China) 6.6 10.2 2.8 -9.8 39.5 16.8 38.6 2.0 0.4 3.8 4.5Singapore 5.2 6.3 9.7 -12.8 -4.9 22.5 7.1 -4.7 1.3 7.0 -2.6Taiwan (China) 6.2 -1.2 0.2 -19.5 70.2 .. .. 2.6 7.4 5.0 5.3
I mport Prices c
High - in come cou n tries .. 3.0 9.4 -10.0 -8.2 -2.2 12.2 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4Industrial countries .. 2.5 9.1 -10.4 -9.0 -3.5 11.9 2.0 0.9 1.8 2.8
United States -0.1 4.3 11.4 -11.4 0.3 6.5 33.1 4.3 0.8 5.2 -0.6Japan -1.4 7.5 8.7 -24.8 -12.7 -11.1 33.7 9.3 3.2 1.1 4.8Euro Area .. 1.7 5.0 -10.6 -10.2 -8.3 2.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 4.0United Kindgom -1.1 1.1 13.2 2.9 -4.2 2.8 10.4 1.8 -0.6 0.6 ..
Other high income -1.0 0.9 12.6 -7.0 -16.8 -2.0 3.2 1.2 2.3 0.3 -0.9Hong Kong (China) -1.2 -0.3 3.0 -1.3 -2.5 2.7 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 -0.7Singapore -0.3 3.6 10.5 -11.7 8.4 21.9 45.1 3.0 4.6 1.5 0.6Taiwan (China) -1.6 9.0 8.8 -9.5 -3.6 12.3 27.4 2.4 5.3 -3.7 0.9
Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates d
Euro Area 33.5 1.3 4.1 4.2 -5.0 -8.5 -5.1 0.6 1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -5.2United States 14.4 -1.1 -4.6 -3.7 10.8 18.7 11.7 -4.5 -1.9 -0.4 0.6 1.0Japan 7.4 -1.2 -6.6 9.8 13.7 16.3 18.3 -1.4 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 -0.8United Kindgom 5.4 -2.4 2.1 -12.0 -8.2 -9.9 -6.1 1.4 -1.7 1.9 -0.3 2.4Canada 3.5 -0.6 0.8 -8.3 -7.6 -12.8 -5.1 11.7 2.7 0.4 -0.9 1.0Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.7 -4.7 -5.5 6.7 9.8 8.6 1.6 1.3 0.3 -2.3 -0.2Korea, Rep. 2.5 -1.7 -2.0 -15.9 -13.3 -16.7 -14.5 11.1 2.2 0.4 0.8 3.7Singapore 2.3 1.3 6.9 4.6 -9.2 -9.5 -12.2 -10.8 -0.4 -0.4 -5.0 -3.3Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.3 -1.3 -4.2 -9.3 -11.9 -10.1 -4.1 -0.8 0.1 1.3 1.7Switzerland 1.7 0.0 -4.9 2.2 9.1 8.9 11.5 8.5 1.7 0.0 -0.3 1.4
a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.
b/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in
question.
Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly
figures, which are m/m change)
Page 16
March 18, 2010
page 16 External Environment for Developing Countries
Average 2009 2009 2010 Latest1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 16-Mar
Policy RatesUnited States 3.44 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.11Japan 0.33 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.10Euro Area .. 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.99 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00United Kindgom 4.80 5.51 4.67 0.65 1.09 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Ten year bon dUnited States 4.70 4.63 3.66 2.67 2.67 3.25 3.51 3.42 3.48 3.66 3.70 3.65Japan 1.49 1.67 1.49 1.34 1.28 1.43 1.34 1.31 1.24 1.27 1.33 1.30Euro Area .. 4.20 4.00 3.25 3.12 3.35 3.33 3.22 3.16 3.31 3.19 3.14United Kindgom 4.77 5.01 4.52 3.65 3.48 3.56 3.79 3.77 3.87 4.01 4.05 4.06
Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,c
Dev elopin g cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China 82 71 166 126 184 134 111 76 61 53 53 98Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Thailand .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Malaysia 129 87 201 230 352 243 166 160 149 143 143 156
Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 262 121 328 443 694 453 378 245 229 206 206 222Turkey 404 214 383 367 537 380 306 244 225 214 214 237Poland 99 61 159 222 311 250 185 142 134 146 146 165Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean 522 221 438 522 735 573 419 363 358 343 343 365Brazil 551 180 301 306 431 324 254 216 202 205 205 221Mexico 206 126 254 302 436 312 246 212 202 196 196 204Argentina 2920 320 858 1198 1696 1458 922 716 718 710 710 790Colombia 370 161 305 329 489 346 270 213 208 210 210 235
Middle East and North Africa .. 480 586 578 815 621 474 403 381 325 325 331
Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt .. 86 262 134 251 133 97 57 31 28 28 83Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 283 1040 1186 1943 1340 841 620 659 684 684 688Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 100 329 301 461 333 223 187 176 175 175 197Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Gros s in flow s e
Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 149 211 353 48 62 99 144 47 32 16 ..East Asia and Pacific .. 41 49 91 15 19 22 35 12 9 4 ..Europe and Central Asia .. 35 64 72 6 16 21 30 8 12 2 ..Latin America and Carribean .. 45 65 137 21 16 37 63 21 8 4 ..Middle East and North Africa .. 15 11 4 1 0 1 2 1 0 3 ..South Asia .. 3 7 31 3 7 11 10 3 3 3 ..Sub-Saharan Africa .. 10 16 17 1 4 7 4 2 0 0 ..
a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on
the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures.
b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.
c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.
Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)
Page 17
March 18, 2010
page 17 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weight Average 2009 2009 20102000 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb
En ergy 100.00 .. 244.8 342.0 214.3 166.3 204.5 230.3 256.0 261.5 256.5 267.5 259.3Coal, Australia 4.70 15.8 250.4 484.2 273.3 274.0 253.3 271.7 294.4 300.2 312.4 369.5 358.8Crude oil, average 84.60 22.2 251.9 343.6 218.8 156.3 209.7 241.6 267.5 274.7 265.3 273.2 264.8Natural gas , Europe 10.80 18.7 221.7 347.5 225.7 309.5 212.1 179.0 202.3 202.4 207.6 228.1 228.1
Non -en ergy 100.00 .. 224.7 272.0 213.1 189.9 207.8 219.8 235.1 235.3 241.7 248.9 239.9Agricu ltu re 64.80 .. 180.3 229.5 197.7 181.9 197.1 199.5 212.4 213.2 217.3 222.1 215.9
Bev erages 8.40 .. 169.9 210.0 219.9 197.9 207.3 226.4 248.0 245.4 252.6 252.7 242.1Cocoa 3.10 4.4 215.5 284.5 319.0 286.4 284.7 327.2 377.5 373.7 388.0 389.0 363.9Coffee, arabica 3.00 0.3 141.9 160.5 165.2 147.9 166.8 168.1 178.0 174.8 181.6 182.5 181.3Coffee, robusta 0.80 2.4 209.1 254.2 180.1 192.6 181.0 175.3 171.3 167.8 168.7 169.2 163.9
Food 40.00 .. 184.7 247.4 205.0 190.4 209.8 206.4 213.5 215.3 217.4 221.1 213.0Fats an d oils 16.30 .. 209.0 277.3 216.2 191.4 227.9 220.9 224.5 225.6 231.0 230.6 223.1Palm oil 4.90 3.5 251.5 305.7 220.1 186.1 239.5 218.7 235.9 233.7 255.0 256.2 257.2Soybean meal 4.30 9.6 163.0 224.4 215.5 192.7 224.0 227.7 217.7 223.1 212.0 214.1 198.8Soybeans 4.00 8.0 181.3 246.8 206.3 186.0 217.5 214.3 207.4 207.7 212.9 206.3 191.2
Grain s 11.20 .. 189.0 281.7 214.9 221.3 225.3 202.3 210.8 214.3 217.0 214.0 203.9Maize 4.60 8.1 184.9 252.0 186.9 188.5 198.8 170.9 189.6 193.9 185.9 189.0 182.8Rice, Thailand, 5% 3.40 7.9 161.3 321.2 274.2 289.7 272.9 266.3 267.9 268.2 292.0 282.2 264.0Wheat, US, HRW 2.80 10.0 223.7 285.8 196.4 203.0 219.6 183.0 180.0 185.0 180.8 176.3 170.0
0.0Oth er food 12.40 .. 149.0 177.1 181.5 161.3 172.1 191.2 201.4 202.7 199.8 215.2 207.9Bananas, US 1.90 5.6 159.4 199.1 199.8 210.2 202.4 194.9 191.6 196.6 187.2 185.2 169.8Sugar, world 3.90 0.6 123.2 156.5 221.4 160.0 188.0 260.6 277.0 272.2 281.8 197.5 ..
Raw materials 16.50 .. 174.9 195.7 168.7 153.1 161.1 168.9 191.7 191.8 199.4 208.7 209.7Cotton ("A" Index) 1.90 0.9 107.1 120.9 106.2 92.8 101.7 109.0 121.3 121.1 129.9 130.9 135.4Rubber, Singapore 3.70 13.6 339.2 387.6 287.9 218.9 249.4 298.8 384.5 381.0 419.9 463.4 468.7Sawnwood, Malaysia 6.70 6.3 135.6 149.5 135.5 136.8 139.5 129.7 135.8 138.1 133.8 133.3 131.3
Fertilizers 3.60 .. 240.1 566.7 293.0 376.6 300.6 252.1 242.8 242.2 243.5 255.2 260.2Triple superphosphate 0.70 17.7 246.2 638.6 186.9 233.6 179.8 163.1 171.1 165.9 168.5 215.1 217.9
Metals an d min erals 31.60 .. 314.0 325.7 235.6 185.0 219.0 257.6 280.8 279.8 291.4 303.4 286.8Aluminum 8.40 6.6 170.3 166.1 107.5 87.8 95.9 117.0 129.3 125.8 140.7 144.3 132.3Copper 12.10 15.4 392.5 383.6 284.0 189.1 257.1 323.1 366.6 368.1 385.0 407.3 377.6Gold .. 11.5 249.7 312.4 348.7 325.6 330.3 344.1 394.8 403.9 406.7 400.7 392.6Nickel 2.50 16.4 431.0 244.4 169.7 121.2 149.6 204.9 202.9 196.7 197.6 213.5 219.7
Memo:Cru de Oil (US$ ) .. 22.2 71.1 97.0 61.8 44.1 59.2 68.2 75.5 77.6 74.9 77.1 74.8
a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in
US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.
b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.
Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)
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page 18 External Environment for Developing Countries
Average 2009 2009 2010
1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan
Ex port v alu es
Dev elopin g cou n tries 11.1 19.7 20.9 -22.9 -54.5 7.7 30.9 59.6 4.0 0.2 10.3 -2.7East Asia and Pacific 18.5 22.0 16.7 -16.3 -50.0 3.2 27.5 76.3 5.8 -0.6 14.5 -3.3
China 22.8 26.3 17.4 -16.3 -54.7 3.1 26.0 72.0 3.4 0.1 16.5 -4.7Indonesia .. 13.2 20.3 -15.3 -49.4 34.2 44.4 139.8 19.7 -3.3 14.5 -3.5Thailand 12.6 18.6 15.8 -14.3 -20.0 -10.1 40.9 58.5 1.8 -0.8 13.1 1.0
Europe and Central Asia 18.9 22.1 29.3 -29.7 -61.1 9.1 48.7 75.6 6.3 1.9 4.4 -0.2Russian Federation 20.3 16.4 33.9 -36.0 -78.1 30.5 53.1 110.6 4.4 9.0 5.8 2.7Turkey 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Poland 19.7 26.5 21.9 -21.4 -31.8 17.7 43.1 37.8 3.3 0.4 0.2 -4.3
Latin America and Caribbean 8.3 13.2 11.8 -20.2 -45.8 13.7 7.9 66.4 0.5 7.2 8.1 -4.4Brazil 14.5 16.9 22.7 -22.3 -61.7 41.0 -21.7 42.7 0.7 3.9 12.0 -6.8Mexico 9.5 8.7 7.4 -21.2 -42.6 -5.3 25.4 91.2 0.1 10.9 7.7 -6.4Argentina 10.2 20.1 25.7 -20.5 -31.9 38.9 -32.9 37.1 -0.4 10.5 -2.4 9.5
Middle East and North Africa 21.8 16.1 37.1 -45.2 -74.4 17.2 30.0 -81.7 1.9 -8.5 .. ..Saudi Arabia 21.7 6.4 43.5 -48.8 -83.1 13.2 36.0 -80.6 -6.0 -3.1 .. ..Iran .. 18.0 30.2 -46.7 -82.1 31.1 56.8 -86.6 0.8 -9.8 .. ..Egypt 23.3 18.5 56.5 -19.4 -8.3 42.1 34.2 -75.1 2.2 -3.8 .. ..
South Asia 15.8 18.4 24.8 -17.6 -41.0 -2.8 57.9 36.8 4.2 1.2 3.4 0.3India 18.4 22.0 27.1 -17.9 -39.5 -2.5 64.0 32.3 2.9 2.5 2.2 -0.6Pakistan 9.1 2.6 15.4 -12.1 -41.2 4.6 38.3 48.0 11.8 -7.2 3.0 12.6Bangladesh 11.6 8.3 23.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 16.8 20.1 27.9 -39.4 -65.6 24.0 54.8 -83.7 -4.7 -10.8 .. ..South Africa 11.8 21.0 15.3 -22.4 -41.2 -1.6 31.7 73.6 2.0 1.3 11.1 -2.9Nigeria 21.0 15.5 29.8 -50.1 -88.5 155.2 47.1 -90.8 -20.3 -13.4 .. ..
Ex port prices b,c
Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 5.6 18.4 -15.3 -37.9 -16.0 -6.8 13.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.9East Asia and Pacific .. 5.8 9.8 -7.5 -26.5 -4.5 2.0 8.4 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.9
China 0.0 5.7 8.2 -6.4 -24.1 -3.5 1.0 3.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3Indonesia .. 7.9 20.9 -21.0 -43.2 -18.7 8.1 37.5 2.7 -0.1 6.4 -0.7Thailand 5.7 6.6 9.4 0.4 -11.3 8.6 13.1 22.7 2.7 1.8 1.5 0.1
Europe and Central Asia .. 5.5 27.4 -21.3 -47.4 -32.1 -18.6 22.6 1.9 1.7 1.0 2.2Russian Federation .. 3.9 43.4 -28.7 -56.5 -54.0 -37.0 36.0 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5Turkey 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Poland -0.9 5.7 11.0 -8.2 -26.7 -6.3 1.4 4.3 0.3 0.9 -1.6 2.4
Latin America and Caribbean 1.0 7.1 18.3 -15.8 -39.0 -10.8 0.7 19.5 1.5 2.1 -0.9 -1.1Brazil 5.4 7.6 23.2 -14.6 -40.1 -7.5 2.9 15.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 -1.3Mexico 5.8 4.6 16.2 -12.9 -37.3 -20.3 -12.7 3.8 0.3 0.7 -0.6 1.2Argentina 5.3 18.0 32.1 -22.3 -34.5 -12.1 -7.0 21.0 2.6 2.4 0.7 1.6
Middle East and North Africa .. 3.6 46.6 -34.6 -60.6 -54.0 -40.9 24.3 1.4 0.0 .. ..
Saudi Arabia 23.8 5.8 54.1 -45.7 -92.8 -15.1 138.4 104.3 16.5 2.2 .. ..Iran .. 1.4 53.5 -33.0 -60.5 -70.6 -53.7 26.5 0.7 4.9 .. ..Egypt .. 4.2 32.5 -22.2 -47.0 -44.9 -20.8 18.7 1.5 1.9 .. ..
South Asia 2.4 5.8 17.8 -9.6 -30.3 -13.3 -1.2 5.9 0.5 1.4 -1.0 2.0
India 4.3 5.9 18.4 -11.7 -34.7 -14.5 0.3 5.3 0.6 1.4 -1.6 1.6Pakistan 0.5 4.1 30.7 3.3 0.1 -18.5 -20.5 10.3 -1.9 4.6 2.7 4.2Bangladesh -6.7 5.5 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. 4.8 35.5 -26.0 -54.2 -41.0 -26.2 28.6 1.6 3.7 .. ..
South Africa 6.9 8.4 22.5 -13.0 -26.6 -18.3 6.7 39.0 3.5 0.2 2.9 1.1Nigeria .. 1.2 55.4 -33.9 -61.1 -73.1 -52.6 18.9 -2.3 5.2 .. ..
Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except
monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)
/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.
/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.
/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual
trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed)
countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.
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page 19 External Environment for Developing Countries
Average 2009 2009 20101999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan
I mport v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 15.8 21.9 25.3 -21.3 -56.5 14.4 34.2 60.0 1.7 3.0 12.2 -5.2
East Asia and Pacific 18.7 18.7 21.1 -15.4 -56.3 63.8 42.7 85.7 3.2 2.9 16.8 -5.9China 23.2 20.7 18.7 -11.8 -53.3 87.6 38.2 87.3 1.9 2.9 20.1 -7.8Indonesia 16.8 22.0 73.1 -24.8 -72.4 17.8 79.4 101.5 13.9 -0.8 15.2 -4.5Thailand 15.5 8.6 27.8 -25.0 -72.1 11.1 71.8 94.7 -2.6 5.6 15.7 1.6
Europe and Central Asia 17.2 30.3 26.4 -32.7 -62.9 -8.3 31.5 44.5 2.1 2.1 3.0 -3.6Russian Federation 17.5 36.4 32.1 -34.7 -72.0 -12.9 20.2 54.4 0.5 4.7 -0.7 -2.4Turkey 16.0 21.9 19.2 -30.5 -50.8 -0.3 49.2 66.0 6.1 1.6 10.9 -3.8Poland 16.1 30.4 26.4 -30.0 -53.9 -0.5 43.1 27.4 2.8 0.2 -2.2 1.2
Latin America and Caribbean 10.1 19.0 22.1 -24.8 -57.7 -15.7 23.6 40.1 -5.1 8.0 11.0 -6.5Brazil 11.6 31.9 43.4 -25.9 -69.4 -12.2 32.3 84.0 -2.1 6.0 13.1 -7.0Mexico 9.4 10.1 9.8 -24.2 -53.9 -14.0 35.7 53.1 -6.0 13.0 10.1 -8.2Argentina 6.2 30.6 28.8 -32.3 -70.8 1.1 13.9 67.8 -1.1 7.1 11.2 -7.7
Middle East and North Africa 14.7 22.9 44.7 -17.9 -40.9 15.6 11.2 -79.7 3.6 -4.2 .. ..Saudi Arabia 14.4 29.2 24.9 -21.0 -53.0 25.2 37.1 -83.3 -2.8 1.1 .. ..Iran 17.1 10.9 55.1 -22.5 -69.2 45.2 37.8 -79.3 1.4 0.0 .. ..Egypt 11.7 31.6 77.7 -15.8 -36.5 -30.6 57.3 -80.1 10.7 -8.2 .. ..
South Asia 19.0 21.4 38.5 -23.0 -59.1 -16.1 48.6 109.7 8.7 6.0 16.1 -2.2India 21.3 24.7 42.3 -23.7 -63.4 -20.6 63.5 129.2 9.6 8.7 16.1 -3.1Pakistan 16.5 9.4 24.8 -22.4 -45.9 63.5 -10.4 36.9 4.3 -3.2 14.6 9.4Bangladesh 12.3 15.4 28.9 -19.3 -0.4 -38.1 11.0 -76.6 2.7 -9.9 .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 14.9 21.5 24.0 -24.0 -43.3 -7.6 33.5 -78.8 -0.9 -1.9 .. ..South Africa 13.2 17.8 11.8 -27.2 -33.3 -38.2 43.3 88.9 1.4 5.6 2.6 -9.6Nigeria 21.8 33.5 37.4 -19.4 -54.1 25.9 22.0 -82.6 -4.6 0.7 .. ..
I mport prices b ,c
Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 5.3 14.8 -11.1 -29.6 -14.4 -5.8 10.9 0.3 0.9 2.4 -1.3East Asia and Pacific .. 4.7 16.4 -11.7 -36.4 -15.8 -9.5 16.5 0.8 1.3 3.8 -2.2
China .. 5.7 17.1 -12.9 -40.9 -15.2 -8.8 17.3 0.5 1.5 4.6 -3.3Indonesia .. 4.7 27.9 -19.5 -44.4 -39.0 -21.2 13.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 3.3Thailand 3.9 -4.0 8.7 0.3 4.6 -4.3 -4.5 13.2 0.3 1.4 2.3 2.0
Europe and Central Asia .. 3.9 7.8 -7.6 -19.5 -0.8 1.2 -1.0 1.3 -1.6 0.7 -3.0Russian Federation 1.7 4.7 10.4 -6.9 -25.8 -2.2 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.9 -1.6 1.4Turkey 5.2 11.1 -0.9 -13.6 -18.0 31.2 30.6 14.1 1.6 -2.9 12.5 -22.4Poland -0.2 -1.7 -0.5 8.0 24.3 7.7 -8.7 -30.8 1.5 -6.4 -6.7 6.9
Latin America and Caribbean 4.1 6.3 14.2 -9.1 -21.6 -14.0 -1.6 8.8 0.3 1.3 1.1 -0.4Brazil 5.6 8.3 21.9 -10.4 -21.6 -24.1 0.6 18.0 2.2 0.9 2.1 -1.7Mexico 3.3 5.4 8.4 -3.7 -8.7 -6.7 0.5 9.4 1.7 0.5 1.1 0.4Argentina 1.8 6.6 11.0 -12.2 -24.4 -17.6 -2.9 8.7 0.8 2.5 -0.9 1.5
Middle East and North Africa .. 6.6 18.6 -11.4 -23.8 -17.9 -4.1 3.7 0.4 0.0 .. ..
Saudi Arabia .. 5.6 11.7 -7.1 -25.4 -3.9 2.2 6.3 1.0 0.2 .. ..Iran .. 5.9 20.2 -12.8 -34.6 -20.0 -7.5 5.4 0.7 0.5 .. ..Egypt .. 7.8 17.7 -13.5 -30.1 -9.6 -7.2 14.0 2.1 1.3 .. ..
South Asia 2.3 6.7 29.8 -17.7 -42.1 -31.3 -18.0 17.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
India 3.3 5.5 30.0 -18.5 -41.6 -39.4 -16.8 21.3 2.3 1.2 0.6 2.9Pakistan 9.6 11.3 48.2 -13.1 -46.8 -12.7 -25.9 6.2 -5.7 3.0 6.7 -11.3Bangladesh -6.2 6.5 17.3 -10.9 -29.2 -8.4 -6.1 9.3 1.1 1.3 .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. 5.8 12.6 -10.7 -21.6 -27.3 -4.0 -6.4 -4.4 -0.4 .. ..
South Africa 5.8 5.6 13.3 -9.4 -32.3 -15.0 -2.5 15.8 1.0 2.4 -1.1 0.2Nigeria .. 4.9 15.9 -10.7 -33.0 -12.9 -5.3 2.8 0.0 0.4 .. ..
Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except
monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)
/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.
/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.
/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual
trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries
whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.
Page 20
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page 20 External Environment for Developing Countries
US$ bn. % GDP 2009 2009 2010
2008 2008 2007 2008 2009 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan
World -168.7 -0.3 -163.3 -285.6 -146.3 -68.2 -98.5 -142.8 45.7 -173.3 -300.8 -262.2
High - in come cou n tries a -418.9 -1.0 -429.0 -440.3 -194.9 -114.0 -124.6 -169.9 -79.3 -188.8 -241.6 -321.1Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -614.9 -707.0 -282.5 -216.1 -216.3 -244.8 -173.9 -256.1 -304.4 -396.5
United States -706.1 -5.0 -870.6 -881.0 -546.3 -499.5 -539.1 -595.7 -550.3 -588.7 -648.1 -607.3Japan 183.2 3.7 91.9 21.2 28.4 30.8 51.8 69.1 84.9 55.0 67.2 96.0Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 50.8 -3.4 61.7 75.2 83.8 96.9 100.0 92.2 98.6 -42.2United Kindgom -73.6 -2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Other high income 80.9 4.2 255.7 281.7 307.7 313.5 318.0 329.8 323.2 331.7 334.4 313.3Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -23.5 -26.2 -29.0 -18.8 -37.9 -41.4 -41.4 -38.4 -44.6 -53.5Singapore 26.9 13.9 36.3 18.7 24.0 23.8 23.8 33.6 32.4 35.9 32.4 39.7Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 26.6 15.5 28.3 30.1 27.6 17.9 24.3 16.9 12.7 36.1
Dev elopin g cou n tries 293.5 1.8 265.7 154.7 48.7 45.8 26.1 27.1 125.0 15.4 -59.2 58.8East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 333.8 326.0 255.8 230.4 202.7 210.7 253.4 194.4 184.2 228.9
China 426.1 11.5 262.5 295.8 195.8 170.8 157.2 154.6 180.3 150.1 133.3 168.6Indonesia 0.6 0.1 39.5 8.3 19.2 19.6 16.2 25.5 27.0 23.4 26.0 26.4Thailand -0.1 0.0 14.0 -0.6 18.7 20.9 16.2 10.0 17.4 7.9 4.8 3.7Malaysia 38.9 19.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Europe and Central Asia .. .. -53.7 -45.0 0.8 -12.7 8.4 49.0 44.7 44.6 57.6 85.0Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 131.3 179.7 111.1 95.6 118.1 159.1 137.5 158.4 181.5 197.4Turkey -41.3 -5.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Poland -29.0 -5.6 -25.4 -38.4 -12.1 -10.8 -11.8 -9.6 -11.1 -10.9 -6.9 -15.2Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 4.4 4.1 8.1 8.1 10.6 10.2 12.1 8.5 10.1 8.8
Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -2.5 -74.0 -20.4 -5.2 -26.4 0.2 9.5 5.2 -14.0 2.7Brazil -28.2 -1.7 40.4 24.7 25.3 40.2 22.3 15.4 16.7 14.6 14.8 14.1Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -10.0 -17.5 -4.7 -4.3 -9.1 4.2 8.9 4.9 -1.1 4.3Argentina 7.6 2.6 11.2 12.7 16.9 21.7 14.9 14.0 14.2 17.0 10.8 20.0Colombia -6.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9 1.5 2.5 2.0 0.0 ..
Middle East and North Africa .. .. 60.6 66.7 -48.0 -55.0 -47.4 -35.9 -49.7 -57.9 .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 117.9 186.1 63.5 66.3 71.4 49.9 78.1 71.5 .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 50.1 53.9 11.7 12.5 16.1 5.3 11.7 4.3 .. ..Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -10.8 -22.7 -20.0 -19.0 -22.3 -14.0 -22.4 -19.4 .. ..Algeria 0.0 0.0 31.9 39.8 4.0 0.6 5.1 5.8 8.1 9.4 .. ..
South Asia .. -94.8 -156.8 -108.3 -91.4 -97.9 -142.0 -114.5 -131.7 -179.6 -170.2India .. .. -69.1 -120.7 -81.3 -63.9 -72.2 -114.0 -88.3 -106.4 -147.4 -138.3Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -15.4 -20.9 -14.2 -16.0 -13.7 -14.5 -12.8 -13.2 -17.4 -18.4Bangladesh .. .. -4.2 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. -3.6 -5.8 -2.1 -2.0 -2.6 -1.1 -3.2 .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 22.3 37.7 -22.3 -20.4 -13.3 -19.2 -18.5 -39.2 .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -9.6 -8.3 -2.2 0.7 -0.6 -2.2 -2.1 -5.2 0.6 5.7Nigeria 20.3 9.3 27.6 32.8 0.0 2.4 5.0 -2.0 0.4 -6.3 .. ..
Memo:OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China .. .. 3.1 -141.2 -147.2 -125.0 -131.1 -127.5 -55.3 -134.7 -192.5 -109.8Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 276.3 313.9 125.0 109.1 130.2 196.3 212.9 182.4 193.6 255.2Developing non-oil exporters .. .. -10.6 -159.2 -76.3 -63.3 -104.1 -169.2 -87.9 -166.9 -252.8 -196.4Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
CAB
Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)
a/ Seasonally adjusted
Page 21
March 18, 2010
page 21 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average Levelb 2009 2009 2010 Latest
1995 2000-09 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 16-Mar
World 100.0 94.0 5.8 3.5 -6.0 -13.8 -12.4 -6.0 8.2 -1.4 -1.1 -2.4 0.2High - in come cou n tries 78.3 .. 6.1 3.9 -4.9 -13.2 -11.8 -4.3 10.1 -1.6 -1.0 -2.6 -0.1
Industrial countries 70.6 .. 7.0 4.1 -5.2 -14.4 -12.8 -4.5 11.5 -1.9 -1.2 -3.0 -0.2United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 4.0 3.2 -2.4 -6.5 -6.6 -1.7 5.6 -1.2 -1.0 -1.7 -0.4Japan 7.4 112.0 -1.2 13.9 10.4 12.3 7.4 15.0 7.0 -1.0 -1.3 1.2 0.3Euro Area 29.5 .. 9.1 6.9 -5.0 -13.1 -12.9 -4.7 12.2 -2.3 -2.1 -4.2 -0.4United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 8.7 -8.1 -15.3 -27.7 -21.5 -14.0 4.3 -2.3 -0.3 -3.4 -3.70.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other high income 7.7 101.4 0.4 2.6 -2.2 -3.3 -4.0 -2.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 -0.4 0.2Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1Singapore 2.3 1.6 5.4 6.5 -2.7 -6.8 -7.2 -2.9 6.7 -0.6 0.0 -1.1 0.9Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 -0.9 4.1 -4.6 -7.2 -8.1 -4.9 2.1 0.2 1.2 -0.6 0.60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dev elopin g cou n tries 21.7 115.5 4.8 2.3 -9.3 -15.4 -14.0 -10.6 2.8 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 1.1East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 5.6 4.0 -2.8 -7.0 -5.7 -3.2 4.1 0.0 0.6 -0.5 0.9
China 2.7 7.9 4.8 9.5 1.7 4.8 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 0.2 -5.8 -6.7 -20.5 -11.8 -7.5 16.9 0.0 1.9 -0.6 1.3Thailand 1.3 38.9 9.7 3.6 -2.9 -8.3 -7.0 -0.3 4.5 0.2 0.5 -0.3 1.4Malaysia 1.4 3.7 6.7 3.0 -5.4 -11.0 -9.5 -5.1 4.8 -0.7 1.0 -1.1 2.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 8.2 6.0 -18.5 -24.5 -24.8 -20.3 -3.4 -2.5 -0.5 -2.2 1.1Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 6.3 2.9 -21.7 -28.6 -26.7 -22.5 -7.5 -3.7 0.6 -0.9 1.5Turkey .. 1.3 9.6 0.1 -16.1 -27.4 -19.6 -19.3 3.2 -1.0 2.2 -2.9 -1.1Poland 0.5 3.5 12.1 14.9 -22.8 -30.7 -33.3 -24.9 1.3 -1.9 -0.3 -2.8 2.7Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 11.3 18.9 -10.5 -19.7 -18.9 -10.2 9.7 -3.4 -2.1 -3.5 0.90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 3.1 1.2 -10.4 -18.2 -16.5 -13.4 6.0 0.3 -6.6 -2.9 1.8Brazil 1.1 2.3 11.7 6.2 -8.2 -24.9 -20.2 -10.6 30.9 -1.4 -1.5 -3.5 3.6Mexico 1.7 10.8 -0.3 -1.8 -17.6 -24.8 -21.8 -22.3 -0.7 1.8 0.4 -1.0 2.3Argentina 0.4 2.7 -1.3 -1.5 -15.4 -11.1 -16.4 -20.6 -13.2 0.1 0.1 -1.2 -0.2Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 5.6 -9.2 -22.2 -21.0 -5.7 16.8 -2.2 2.1 1.4 2.6
Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 1.9 2.5 -4.7 -5.5 -7.2 -5.4 0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -1.5 -0.1Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Iran 0.4 .. -1.2 -1.6 .. -5.6 -6.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 0.3 5.2 1.7 3.7 -2.1 -1.6 -4.3 -3.4 0.9 -0.5 0.7 -0.6 0.1Algeria 0.3 73.4 4.8 7.3 -11.0 -8.0 -12.8 -16.1 -7.1 -0.1 0.4 -1.4 0.2
South Asia 1.2 107.4 5.4 -5.6 -9.6 -18.0 -13.6 -8.7 1.7 -0.2 0.8 -0.6 1.0India 0.8 45.5 9.6 -5.0 -10.1 -20.0 -14.6 -9.5 4.5 -0.1 1.4 -0.8 1.4Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -0.8 -13.7 -13.8 -23.1 -17.9 -10.2 -4.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.4Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 -6.1 2.1 -5.8 -5.3 -7.4 -6.2 -4.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 0.3 -5.0 -9.9 -21.0 -14.8 -9.9 9.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 1.3South Africa 0.6 7.7 -3.9 -14.7 -2.5 -25.4 -8.2 -0.2 32.7 0.3 0.4 -2.9 2.8Nigeria 0.3 124.9 2.3 6.1 -20.7 -19.7 -20.3 -22.9 -19.7 0.9 -0.4 -0.4 0.4
Memo:OECD 73.7 .. 6.9 4.2 -5.9 -15.0 -13.4 -5.5 11.0 -1.8 -1.1 -2.9 -0.1Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 4.8 1.3 -10.8 -17.9 -16.0 -12.0 3.3 -0.6 -1.9 -1.9 1.3Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 0.7 -1.4 -7.6 -13.2 -10.2 -8.5 3.6 0.1 -13.0 -4.1 0.7Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 5.4 2.9 -9.5 -15.7 -14.5 -10.9 2.7 -0.6 0.0 -1.3 1.2Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)
a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and
rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).
Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.
b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD
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Average 2009 2009 20101999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan
World 4.8 4.8 8.8 2.8 5.5 3.1 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.6 2.0 ..
High - in come cou n tries 3.3 2.4 4.3 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.2Industrial countries 3.2 2.3 3.8 0.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.3
United States 3.8 2.8 3.9 -0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.6 1.5 -0.1 1.9 2.8 2.7Japan 1.4 0.0 1.4 -1.3 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.0 -2.5 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2Euro Area 3.3 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1United Kindgom 3.6 2.3 3.6 2.2 3.0 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.9 3.5
Other high income 6.1 2.3 4.4 1.6 2.4 1.5 .. .. 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.1Hong Kong (China) 4.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 1.4 2.2 0.6 1.3 1.0Singapore 6.5 2.1 6.6 0.6 3.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 0.2Taiwan (China) 3.5 1.8 3.5 -0.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.9 -1.7 -0.2 0.3
Dev elopin g cou n tries 10.4 6.2 10.4 4.0 7.8 4.8 2.5 3.0 2.4 2.7 3.9 ..East Asia and Pacific 9.5 5.5 9.5 2.9 4.4 1.4 0.3 1.8 -0.3 1.3 2.4 ..
China 5.8 3.2 1.1 -6.2 -8.0 -8.6 -6.2 -1.8 -4.3 -1.7 0.7 0.6Indonesia 9.5 5.8 9.5 4.8 8.6 5.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.8Thailand 5.5 2.2 5.5 -0.8 -0.2 -2.8 -2.2 2.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 4.2Malaysia 5.4 2.0 5.5 0.6 3.8 1.3 -2.3 -0.1 -1.5 0.0 1.1 1.4
Europe and Central Asia 10.4 8.4 10.7 3.7 7.6 4.5 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 ..Russian Federation 14.1 9.0 14.1 11.7 13.8 12.4 11.4 9.2 9.7 9.1 8.9 8.0Turkey 10.4 8.7 10.5 6.3 8.4 5.7 5.3 5.7 5.1 5.6 6.6 8.2Poland 4.3 2.4 4.4 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9Czech Republic 6.3 2.9 6.4 1.0 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7
Latin America and Caribbean 8.8 6.4 8.8 3.4 6.2 4.0 1.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.3 ..Brazil 5.7 3.6 5.7 4.9 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6Mexico 5.1 3.9 5.1 5.3 6.2 6.0 5.1 4.0 4.5 3.9 3.6 4.5Argentina 8.6 8.8 8.6 6.3 6.6 5.5 5.9 7.1 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.3Colombia 7.0 5.5 7.0 4.2 6.6 4.8 3.2 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.1
Middle East and North Africa 13.7 3.9 14.9 3.6 4.5 3.3 4.2 4.6 5.0 .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 9.9 4.1 9.9 5.1 6.9 5.3 4.2 4.0 3.5 4.1 4.3 ..Iran 25.5 17.2 25.6 13.5 20.9 15.1 12.1 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.4 ..Egypt 18.3 9.5 18.3 11.8 13.4 10.6 9.9 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.7Algeria 0.1 3.5 4.4 3.4 5.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia 10.9 7.6 10.9 9.2 9.5 8.9 9.7 8.3 7.8 10.5 10.6 13.8India 8.4 6.3 8.4 10.9 9.5 8.9 11.7 13.4 11.5 13.4 15.2 16.2Pakistan 20.3 7.6 20.3 13.7 20.3 14.9 10.6 10.0 8.8 10.5 10.6 13.8Bangladesh 8.9 9.1 8.9 4.6 5.7 4.3 4.2 6.6 6.8 .. .. ..Sri Lanka 22.6 15.8 22.6 3.4 7.9 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.4 2.9 4.9 6.7
Sub-Saharan Africa .. 6.9 10.6 5.5 10.2 7.7 2.1 2.7 1.7 2.4 4.5 ..South Africa .. 7.1 11.6 7.1 8.4 7.8 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.4 ..Nigeria 11.6 5.4 11.6 12.4 14.3 12.5 10.9 12.0 11.7 12.4 11.9 ..
Memo: .. .. ..OECD 3.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2.7 4.1 ..Developing excl. China .. 6.3 10.5 4.2 7.9 4.8 2.6 3.0 2.6 4.3 4.4 ..Developing oil exporters 12.0 5.4 9.9 5.3 11.0 5.8 3.5 4.0 3.6 2.4 3.8 ..Developing non-oil exporters 10.3 6.6 10.5 3.5 7.0 4.1 1.7 2.9 1.4 .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)
a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.
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Weights 2009 2009 2010 Latest1995 2007 2008 2009 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 16-Mar
World 100.0High - in come cou n tries b 82.8 4.13 2.32 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.39 .. ..
Industrial countries 80.6 4.15 2.32 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.40 .. ..United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.13 0.16Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 5.51 4.67 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Other high income 2.2 3.37 2.16 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29 .. .. ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 6.52 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 ..Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 2.68 1.15 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.96 1.93 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.12
Dev elopin g cou n tries 17.2East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 6.71 7.18 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 .. ..Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 3.50 3.48 2.11 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 2.11
Europe and Central Asia 3.0Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.27 10.87 11.38 12.23 10.86 9.45 8.96 8.75 8.74 ..Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 18.37 17.05 9.71 10.09 8.46 7.10 6.88 6.89 6.88 6.89Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.48 5.88 3.62 3.58 3.32 3.30 3.28 3.26 3.28 3.29Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.86 3.49 1.52 1.59 1.35 1.21 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00
Latin America and Caribbean 5.8Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.05 12.45 10.16 10.37 8.87 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.36 7.88 5.52 5.43 4.63 4.62 4.60 4.61 4.63 4.65Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 8.09 11.43 11.59 11.81 11.69 10.32 9.46 9.40 9.18 9.03Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 7.94 9.68 6.28 6.54 5.08 4.38 4.21 4.01 4.03 3.98
Middle East and North Africa 1.4Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 4.79 2.89 .. 1.67 0.28 .. 0.29 .. .. ..Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 10.17 .. 9.50 8.67 .. .. .. .. ..Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 .. .. ..
South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.04 7.90 8.90 9.00 9.00 8.59 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 9.09 10.63 12.12 12.87 12.03 12.22 12.01 11.93 12.01 12.02Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 .. 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 10.43 10.50 9.03 9.55 8.43 7.78 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 9.61 11.61 8.39 8.50 7.24 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.13 9.85 .. 8.00 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)
a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the
value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).
b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.
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page 24 External Environment for Developing Countries
Average 2009 2009 2009 2010 Latest1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 16-Mar
World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Japan 84 98 79 62 52 56 61 61 62 64 62 64Euro Area 99 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United Kindgom 88 155 100 65 47 56 66 70 68 69 65 66
Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 163 139 121 82 106 126 137 152 153 145 153Singapore 80 18 10 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5Taiwan (China) 72 101 87 74 43 59 67 75 78 82 75 77
Dev elopin g cou n tries a,b 156 246 220 176 106 139 165 188 193 197 184 194East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China 118 230 202 182 131 170 201 218 195 193 181 189Indonesia 207 414 407 356 145 218 295 339 310 328 311 324Thailand 188 260 245 201 104 134 166 181 164 168 160 171Malaysia 116 177 159 141 98 115 134 149 157 161 155 163
Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 554 490 259 164 247 272 343 343 364 343 359Turkey 87 150 116 93 49 66 91 102 97 106 97 96Poland 168 274 229 132 80 97 124 147 160 163 147 158Czech Republic 354 768 847 577 381 475 576 580 648 662 619 632
Latin America and Caribbean 203 352 361 291 182 238 284 345 367 366 342 365Brazil 199 349 395 317 197 267 318 397 411 407 376 404Mexico 193 350 302 229 151 188 226 257 285 284 271 287Argentina 104 200 175 101 63 70 92 113 121 125 117 120Colombia 352 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Middle East and North Africa .. 261 231 164 103 134 158 181 181 188 178 188Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 213 497 556 354 188 255 300 317 293 306 320 314Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 334 297 242 120 177 216 248 285 292 272 291Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 241 369 447 425 487 569 597 623 662 699 699Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 290 240 218 139 175 210 230 220 223 211 227Nigeria 409 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo: .. .. .. ..OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)
a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002
Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month.
Annual data is the average over 12 months.
b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P
c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia
Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P
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page 25 External Environment for Developing Countries
GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance
2009 2010 2011 2010 2011
Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD
World -2.2 3.2 2.8 1.9 3.3 2.5 2.5 177.3 -370.3 .. 186.6 -351.8 ..High - in come cou n tries -3.3 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.4 -180.1 -370.6 .. -160.2 -352.0 ..
Industrial countries -3.4 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.3 2.4 -267.2 -370.7 .. -250.3 -352.1 ..United States -2.5 3.1 2.5 2.5 3.0 1.4 2.8 -491.3 -478.4 -506.2 -536.6 -449.3 -565.5Japan -5.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.1 2.0 186.4 157.2 145.5 201.6 167.1 147.9Euro Area -3.9 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.7 -33.7 -79.2 -10.5 -9.6 -81.3 44.8United Kindgom -4.5 1.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 0.9 2.2 -38.6 -15.5 -56.8 -36.0 -10.1 -48.5
Other high income -2.7 4.6 4.2 .. 4.4 4.2 .. 87.1 .. .. 90.1 .. ..Hong Kong (China) -2.9 4.8 4.7 .. 4.5 3.6 .. 24.1 .. .. 27.1 .. ..Singapore -2.1 5.9 4.9 .. 5.3 4.8 .. 26.7 .. .. 27.6 .. ..Taiwan (China) -3.4 4.9 4.2 .. 4.5 4.6 .. 33.2 .. .. 33.2 .. ..0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dev elopin g cou n tries 1.7 6.0 5.8 .. 6.1 5.6 .. 357.4 0.3 .. 346.8 0.3 ..East Asia and Pacific 6.9 8.9 8.6 .. 8.4 7.5 .. 362.0 0.3 .. 377.4 0.4 ..
China 8.5 9.8 9.6 .. 9.1 8.1 .. 304.9 0.3 276.4 320.1 0.3 323.9Indonesia 4.5 5.7 5.5 .. 6.0 5.9 .. 7.4 .. .. 7.6 .. ..Thailand -3.0 4.3 3.2 .. 4.5 4.1 .. 11.8 .. .. 8.8 .. ..Malaysia -2.2 4.8 5.4 .. 5.0 4.0 .. 31.8 .. .. 34.6 .. ..0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Europe and Central Asia -5.4 3.1 2.6 .. 4.0 3.7 .. 5.7 .. .. -6.9 0.0 ..Russian Federation -7.9 3.9 3.5 .. 4.6 4.3 .. 68.7 0.1 .. 68.4 0.1 ..Turkey -5.8 4.4 3.4 3.7 4.4 4.3 4.6 -25.7 .. -19.9 -32.5 0.0 -25.8Poland 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.1 -11.1 .. -11.5 -14.1 0.0 -13.2Czech Republic -4.1 1.4 0.9 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 -1.7 .. 0.6 -2.9 0.0 0.80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Latin America and Caribbean -2.5 3.9 3.6 .. 3.7 3.5 .. -39.4 -0.1 .. -65.1 -0.1 ..Brazil -0.1 5.3 5.5 .. 4.6 5.1 .. -46.1 -0.1 .. -59.7 -0.1 ..Mexico -6.9 3.7 3.4 2.7 3.5 2.8 3.9 -10.0 .. 9.4 -15.3 .. 15.0Argentina -2.5 3.7 3.1 .. 2.6 2.6 .. 7.9 .. .. 6.1 .. ..Colombia 0.2 2.7 2.5 .. 3.6 3.4 .. -5.6 .. .. -6.6 .. ..0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia -0.9 3.9 3.3 .. 4.8 3.5 .. 55.8 .. .. 71.1 .. ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 4.6 4.8 5.4 .. 5.6 5.5 .. -3.6 .. .. -2.9 .. ..Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Asia 6.1 6.5 7.0 .. 7.4 7.5 .. -27.3 .. .. -28.6 .. ..India 6.6 7.0 7.7 .. 8.0 8.0 .. -21.0 .. .. -23.3 .. ..Pakistan 2.9 3.6 2.9 .. 4.1 4.2 .. -6.3 .. .. -5.3 .. ..Bangladesh 5.5 5.9 5.7 .. 6.3 5.9 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..Sri Lanka 3.2 .. 6.4 .. .. 5.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa -2.0 2.7 2.8 .. 3.8 3.7 .. -16.8 .. .. -19.3 .. ..Nigeria 4.5 6.0 6.2 .. 6.1 5.8 .. 21.1 .. .. 21.0 .. ..0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Memo:OECD -3.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.5 -321.1 -370.7 .. -322.2 -352.2 ..Developing excl. China -1.1 4.3 4.1 .. 4.7 4.5 .. 52.6 .. .. 26.7 .. ..Developing oil exporters 1.1 3.6 2.6 .. 4.7 3.7 .. 103.1 0.1 .. 118.3 0.1 ..Developing non-oil exporters 1.7 6.2 6.1 .. 6.2 5.8 .. 254.3 0.2 .. 228.5 0.2 ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)
Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.
Regional Aggregates:
Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN
Europe and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR
East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA
Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM
South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK
Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE