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Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia Greg Barton, Monash University Herb Feith Research Professor for the study of Indonesia Herb Feith Foundation Seminar Series Monash Caulfield, 16 October 2012
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Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia Greg Barton, Monash University Herb Feith Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

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Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia Greg Barton, Monash University Herb Feith Research Professor for the study of Indonesia Herb Feith Foundation Seminar Series Monash Caulfield, 16 October 2012 . Are pluralism and tolerance under threat in Indonesia?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia

Greg Barton, Monash UniversityHerb Feith Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Herb Feith Foundation Seminar SeriesMonash Caulfield, 16 October 2012

Page 2: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Are pluralism and tolerance under threat in Indonesia?

Page 3: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Will bullying and violence in the name of God go unchecked?

Page 4: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

What does Bhinneka Tunggal Ika mean today?

Page 5: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 6: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 7: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

May 1998 and democratic transition Democratic transition

Political legitimacy Clear support of public

Challenge of credibility A premature transition to democracy?

Middle class and therefore civil society too small? Islam – is the world’s largest Muslim nation ready for

democracy?

What sort of democracy wiill emerge? Unexpected success Awkward transition

New Order and ABRI misread? Unlikely leaders, unconventional leadership – Habibie and Wahid Islam’s ‘dark matter’ – unrecognised civil society

Page 8: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Sources of Legitimacy

• Nationalism• Democracy• Islam

– Parties, politicians, policies and the question of legitimacy

> What has legitimacy?> For whom does it have legitimacy?> How Islamic is Islamic enough?

Page 9: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Institutional legitimacy deficit

• Whilst the initial phase of Indonesia’s democratic transition has now been successfully completed, and the current government enjoys high levels of legitimacy, institutional reform has only just begun

• Indonesia’s most important institutions continue to suffer from a serious lack of legitimacy

• This is revealed in a number of social surveys• In 2007 Pusat Pengkajian Islam dan Masyarakat

(PPIM) at the State Islamic University (UIN) in Jakarta published three survey reports

Page 10: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

3rd 2007 PPIM survey -Islam and nationalism

• In 2007 PPIM published a social survey with the title “Islam and Nationalism: Findings of a National Survey”.

• Respondents in this survey indicated low levels of trust in political parties and public institutions, especially in the field of law, but relatively high levels of trust in religious leaders.

• Nevertheless the results of this survey also speak of Indonesia’s significant success in building a national identity that transcends ethnicity and regionalism.

Page 11: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Lack of confidence in state institutions

• 8% had confidence in political parties• 11% trusted the legislature (DPR) • 16% trusted the police• 22% trusted both the president and the

army as institutions• 41% had confidence in religious leaders.

Page 12: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

2007 PPIM survey -Pesantren/madrasah, Islamic schools• This survey, entitled “Assessment of Social and Political

Attitudes in Indonesian Schools: Madrasah and Pesantren Directors and Students”, focussed on interviewing twelve teachers (ulama: kyai, and ustaz) and senior students from sixty-four pesantren/madrasah and sixteen Islamic schools across eight provinces, giving a total of 960 respondents.

• Considerable care was taken to choose a representative sample of NU and Muhammadiyah institutions together with independent pesantren and urban Islamic schools from among Indonesia’s 20,000 pesantren and numerous madrasah and Islamic schools.

Page 13: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Lack of confidence in state institutions• It would appear that one reason why shariah law and

Islamist politics have such strong support in Indonesia today is that there exists very little confidence in public institutions.

• Less than one in five respondents believed that “the police perform their law enforcement task well” (17.5%)

• 19% believe that nation’s courts perform their task “to achieve justice in legal decisions”

• 22% have confidence in the performance of the House of Representatives (DPR).

• 49% have confidence in the president’s performance of his duties

• 82% believe that “religious leaders, precisely the ulama, will not mislead them”.

Page 14: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Support for democracy

• It is interesting that whilst PPIM surveys since 2001 show evidence of increasing support for Islamism they also reveal steadily increasing support for democracy. Indeed in this 2007 survey high levels of support for Islamism are accompanied by high levels of support for democracy.

• 86% of respondents agreeing that “democracy is the best system of governance for Indonesia”.

• 83% agreed with the statement that “democracy creates social order within society”.

Page 15: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Islamic democracy – democratic Islam?

• Radical Islamism represents the most substantial critique of the legitimacy of liberal democracy in Indonesia– How much support is there for radical Islamism?

• The world’s largest Muslim nation has transitioned to democracy but what does Islam have to do with this?– Has this occurred because of, or despite, Islam?– The civil sphere is the place to look for an answer

• What has been the contribution of Islam to civil society in Indonesia?– This needs to be viewed broadly and over the longer run, as

well as in the reform movement of the past two decades

Page 16: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 17: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 18: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 19: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 20: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

The ‘Arab Spring’: transition in the heart of the Muslim world

Page 21: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 22: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Five Implications from the ‘Arab Spring’

• 1. Religion remains important• 2. Social, economic, political, cultural and

demographic drivers are paramount• 3. Democracy is just beginning• 4. Secular, liberal democracy needs to be

negotiated and developed in the context of local cultural and religious factors

• 5. Religious and social harmony will face variegated and unpredictable challenges

Page 23: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

1. Religion remains important

• Religion is generally not the driver for protest

• But it informs values, aspirations and expectations

• And manifests in the market-place of ideas that accompanies democracy

• Religion has played an important historical role in dissent and social services

• Hence, the Muslim Brotherhood is key

Page 24: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

2. Social, drivers are paramount

• Social• Economic• Political• Cultural• Demographic

Page 25: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

3. Democracy is just beginning

• The modern nation state is a very recent development– Most members of the UN were born in the

20th C• Democracy is even more recent• In the MENA nations democracy is arriving

for the first time– it was deferred by Cold War imperatives

Page 26: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

4. Secular, liberal democracy needs to be negotiated and developed

• There exists wide-spread desire for democracy

• But it needs to be developed in the context of local cultural and religious factors

• Secularity and the appropriate limits of religion remains a work in progress even in the west

• Secular liberal democracy does not mean the absence of religion in the public square

Page 27: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

5. Religious and social harmony will face challenges• These challenges will be variegated and

unpredictable• Religious sentiments will be manipulated for

cheap politics• Religious leaders and communities must be

part of the solution – But they need wisdom and courage

• More than ever, they will need to work together

Page 28: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Islam must have it's place• In the ME engaging with culture, tradition and belief

requires engaging with Islam• Democracy requires allowing Islam a place in public

discourse, political discourse, social movements and public life in general

• But what should that place be?• The relationship between religion and the state needs to

be mediated through the civil sphere without coercion on any side, independent from the state

• Secular liberal democracy is the only truly popular option but it must find indigenous form and expression

• Religious social movements can play a vital and constructive role

Page 29: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Islam and Modernity

• Can Islam and Islamic social movements be truly modern?

• Binder says yes, but is not sure how.• Huntington says no, and finds support in radical Islamist essentialism.

• “"The underlying problem for the West is not Islamic fundamentalism. It is Islam, a different civilization whose people are convinced of the superiority of their culture and are obsessed with the inferiority of their power." (Huntington, 1996:217-8)

Page 30: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Multiple Narratives

• Traditionalist Muslims• Modernist Muslims• ‘Secular’, non-observant cosmopolitans• Progressive/liberal Muslims• Moderate Islamists• Radical Islamists• Jihadists

Page 31: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Indonesia’s democratic transition

Democratic transition Political legitimacy

Clear support of public Challenge of credibility

A premature transition to democracy? Middle class and therefore civil society too small? Islam – is the world’s largest Muslim nation ready for

democracy?

What sort of democracy wiill emerge? Unexpected success Awkward transition

New Order and ABRI misread? Unlikely leaders, unconventional leadership – Habibie and Wahid Islam’s ‘dark matter’ – unrecognised civil society

Page 32: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Joining the BRICs• Indonesia is now increasingly recognized as a

key nation in the emerging second tier of rapidly developing large nations

• joining the likes of Turkey and Mexico • in the wake of the original BRIC group (Brazil,

Russia, India, and China) of first tier emerging nations.

Page 33: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

A present reality• This is a present reality not merely a long-term

projection. • Over the next eight years Indonesia is on track

to overtake Spain, Canada and Italy to become the world's 11th largest economy in 2020 – just behind South Korea – Indonesia is currently ranked 15th.

Page 34: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

2010 v 2020

Page 35: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Brookings – June 2011

Page 36: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

World Economic Expansion

Page 37: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 38: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Asia’s rising middle class

Page 39: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

McKinsey Global Institute – Sep 2012

Page 40: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 41: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia
Page 42: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Decade of growth – 2000 - 2010

Page 43: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

A decade of stable growth

Page 44: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Growing working-age population

Page 45: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Urbanisation – 71% in 2030

Page 46: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

The rise of the cities

Page 47: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Not just Java

Page 48: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

The rise of the middle class

Page 49: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Education – 42b in 2030, 6% per annum

Page 50: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

But what about the risks? • How is Indonesia currently fairing on:• - good governance and the consolidation of

democracy• - 2014 elections• - terrorism and violent extremism• - communal relations• - economic management

Page 51: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

Good enough to be a dragon• Indonesia's prospects are sound • Even just muddling through it is well on track to

join China, India, Japan and South Korea as an Asian dragon

Page 52: Islam, secularism and liberal democracy in Indonesia  Greg Barton, Monash University Herb  Feith  Research Professor for the study of Indonesia

How should we respond?• We need to reset our mental picture, our grand

narrative, of Indonesia• We need to recognize that not just economic

growth but also generational change are transforming outlook, capacities, expectations, and aspirations