ISA Region Report East Europe

Name Here

ISA Region Report

Sub-Saharan Africa

December 2016 Edition

Name Here

Table of Contents

• Recent Political Events

• Recent Economic Events

• Other Recent Events

Current Events: Economic Outlook: • Economic Overview• GDP Growth Forecasts• Keys to Regional Economic Growth• Inflation Forecasts• Regional Exchange Rate Forecasts• Labor Force Overview• Foreign Investment Outlook• Key Regional Economic Issues• Regional Economic Risk Outlook

• Regional Political Overview• Recent Elections or Government Changes• Upcoming Elections• Key Regional Disputes or Conflicts• Potential Conflicts• Regional Military Outlook• Key Regional Political Issues• Regional Political Risk Outlook

Political Outlook:

• Population Overview

• Population Characteristics• Development of Leading Urban Centers• Key Demographic Issues• Key Environmental Issues• Regional Demographic and Environmental Risk Outlook

Demographic & Environmental Outlook:

Name Here

Current Events and Recent Changes Overview

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Political Events and Changes

• Embattled South African President Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence vote in that country’s parliament by a margin of 214 votes to 126. This was the third time that he has had to face a no-confidence vote in the parliament this year as the political opposition has repeatedly attempted to force President Zuma from office.

• The leader of South Africa’s more left-leaning political opposition, Julius Malema, reiterated his calls for black South Africans to occupy land that is owned by white South Africans.

• The Boko Haram militant group continued to lose ground in Nigeria and neighboring countries as it faced an international coalition that has had some success in retaking territory from that group. For example, hundreds of Boko Haram militants surrendered to Chad’s armed forces.

• In Cote d’Ivpore, 93.4% of those who voted in a national referendum backed the country’s new constitution that, among other things, will scrap the law that requires both parents of presidential candidates to be Cote d’Ivoire natives. Voter turnout in this referendum was reported to have been relatively low, with the official rate of voter turnout being placed at 42%.

Key Political Events and Changes:

• Clashes between Ugandan police and a militia based in western Uganda left at least 55 people dead and led to the arrest of the king of the Rwenzururu ethnic group. The Ugandan government accused the militants of seeking independence for their region in western Uganda.

• Fighting resumed between the armed forces of two of Somalia’s semi-autonomous regions, Puntland and Galmudug, as the two territories fought over their disputed border. This ended a short ceasefire between these two regions that had been brokered by the government of Dubai. Puntland has been considered to have been the most stable and successful area of Somalia as it had largely avoided the conflict and chaos that has engulfed most other areas of the country.

• The political gridlock in the tiny West African country of Guinea-Bissau continued as President Jose Mario Vaz was forced to name his fifth different prime minister in the past year.

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Economic Events and Changes

• Oil prices trended downwards as expectations of oversupply continued to mount, while demand levels remained relatively subdued.

• As oil prices have failed to rise as much as many oil producing countries had hoped for this year, Africa’s leading oil producing countries are facing a prolonged economic slump. Already, oil dependent countries such as Nigeria and Angola have seen their economic growth rates fall dramatically over the past two years and the prospects for higher growth rates in the near-future are dim. These countries have been forced to enact major public spending cuts as government revenues have fallen, due to the fact that most government revenues in these countries comes from oil exports.

• The Nigerian economy remained stuck in a deep recession as it shrank by 2.2% on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of this year. Lower oil prices continued to hurt the country’s economy by not only reducing vital revenues from oil exports, but by also having a negative knock-on effect on the rest of the Nigerian economy.

• The Nigerian government announced that it would invest $10 billion in a bid to end an insurgency in the oil-rich southern areas of that country.

Key Economic Events and Changes:

• In the third quarter of this year, Mozambique’s economy expanded by 3.7% on a year-on-year basis, the second straight quarter with such a level of growth. Prior to the country’s hidden debt scandal, the country’s economy had been growing at a level that was nearly twice as high as current growth levels.

• The government of Mozambique hired a group of independent advisors to conduct an audit into a series of loans that the government obtained last year without the approval of the country’s parliament. This crisis has had a major impact on what has been one of the most successful economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Zimbabwe launched its own money for the first time since the country adopted the US dollar as its currency in 2009. This was done to ease worsening cash shortages in that country, but raised fears of a return of hyperinflation.

• The US-based oil giant ExxonMobil entered into negotiations with the government of Chad following the recent $74 billion fine assessed to that company over alleged unpaid royalties.

Name Here

6

Key Economic Issue: Africa’s Economic Promise

Summary - In recent years, the hopes that Africa could become the region with the fastest growing economy in the world have largely been dashed, even as most other emerging markets suffered from a severe slowdown. Not long ago, many African economies were recording very strong rates of growth, raising hopes that the region was finally on the cusp of an economic transformation that would lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and make Africa a center of trade and investment. Moreover, Africa’s rapidly growing population raised hopes that Africa would, over time, become a leading driver of growth for the global economy. However, the dramatic fall in the price of oil and other natural resources that dominate many of the region’s economies resulted in a sharp economic slowdown in many areas of Africa. Now, the region faces the prospect of dealing with the consequences of lower rates of economic growth combined with the continued increase in the region’s population.

Africa’s Population BoomOne of the key reasons why global economic growth rates are forecast to remain below those of previous decades is the simple fact that global population growth continues to slow, with little population growth in developed economies and much slower growth in many emerging markets. However, Africa’s population is forecast to continue to grow at a rapid pace in the coming decades, with population growth there easily outpacing any other region in the world. For example, at the start of the 20th century, Africa accounted for less than 4% of the world’s total population, but today, it accounts for nearly 16%. By the middle of this century, Africa’s total population is forecast to rise to 2.4 billion people, or a startling 25% of the world’s total population. In short, Africa’s population is forecast to double over the next 34 years, adding a number of people to the earth that is nearly equivalent to China’s entire population. Obviously, this poses some massive challenges for the region that include bringing stability to an unstable region, providing water and land resources for such a massive population, and creating jobs for the region’s rapidly-expanding working-age population. However, this population growth also provides the region with the opportunity to attract the investment needed to develop economies that can grow in a sustainable manner in the 21st century.

Factors for GrowthIn order to ensure that this dramatic population growth can drive long-term economic growth in Africa, a number of steps must be taken. First, the region’s infrastructure needs to be dramatically improved so that goods and services can move freely and easily around the continent. Second, education systems must be improved in order to create skilled workers that are attractive for investors, enabling the region to break away from its dependence upon natural resource exports. Third, a complete diversification of the region’s economies needs to take place, reducing the region’s exposure to external shocks and enabling the region to develop a large manufacturing sector and a modern service sector. Fourth, the region needs to develop export-oriented industries and services along the lines of those developed in East Asia in the 20th century. Fifth, the region needs to develop economies that provide benefits for the entire population, as the region’s current natural-resource-dominated economies benefit only small segments of the population and create relatively few jobs. Finally, much more must be done to bring peace and stability to the region, as too many countries in the region have seen their economic development stifled by conflict and unrest.

A Massive Challenge:There is no question that Africa faces some of the world’s most difficult challenges when it comes to developing a modern economy. In particular, the region’s dramatic rate of population growth will be an extremely difficult challenge for Africa, as it will strain the region’s resources and stability. Moreover, bringing peace to a region where the borders within it are often arbitrary and nonsensical will be a very difficult challenge and may prove impossible to overcome. However, as economic growth around the world slows, an increasing number of investors and businesses will turn to Africa as a potential growth market and this hold the promise of more trade and investment for the region, a prerequisite for its long-term growth. If this can bring tangible benefits for large segments of Africa’s society, then there still could be hope for a more peaceful and prosperous future for the world’s fastest-growing region, particularly for those countries that are brave enough to undertake the reforms needed to pave the way towards a brighter economic future.

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Recent Events and Changes

• Aid agencies warned that more than five million people in Somalia are currently suffering from food shortages due to the ongoing unrest in that country and the impact that recent flooding has had on the country’s agricultural sector.

• The United Nations warned that as many as 1.5 million people were facing severe food shortages in southern Madagascar as a result of a severe drought in that region.

• While the Boko Haram militant group lost ground in northeastern Nigeria, areas of that region still under their control faced a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands of people facing dire food shortages caused by the conflict in that region.

• 73 people were killed and more than 110 were injured when a fuel tanker exploded in western Mozambique. The cause of this explosion remained unknown.

Other Key Events and Changes:

Name Here

Regional Political Outlook

Name Here

Africa: Political Stability Map

Political instability levels remain much too high across much of Africa, although stability levels have risen in some parts of the region. Nevertheless, almost no country in the region is immune to the

threat of significant instability.

Dark Blue = Very stableBlue = Largely stableLight Blue = Slightly stableOrange = Largely unstableRed = Completely unstable

Name Here

10

Ethiopia: Most Recent ElectionsParliamentary Elections – May 2015

The ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) won total control of Ethiopia’s parliament in May 2015’s national elections.• The EPRDF and its allies won all of the seats in this election, the second consecutive national election in which the ruling party has won all, or nearly all, of the seats.• Most of the country’s leading opposition parties boycotted this election in order to protest against the government’s crackdown on the political opposition over the past decade.

The political opposition dismissed these election results, calling them fake.• The only seats that the political opposition had held coming into this election were in Addis Ababa and these too went over to the EPRDF in the 2015 elections.• Few international observers were allowed to monitor these elections, after they were highly critical of the previous national elections in 2010.

Summary of the Last Elections: 2005 Election

Source: National election authority

Name Here

11

Nigeria: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential Elections – March 2015

In what may prove to be one of the most important elections in African history, Nigerian voters, for the first time, ousted an incumbent president at the ballot box. • In the end, the opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, defeated the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan by a margin of 54.4% to 45.6%.

A number of factors combined to bring an end to the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan. • First, his government’s inability to bring an end to the Boko Haram insurgency in northeastern Nigeria cost the president much of his support, as evidenced by Mr. Buhari’s huge margins of victory in the states of northeastern Nigeria. • Second, the once-dominant PDP party suffered a number of high-profile defections in the months before the election, whereas the once fractious political opposition united around Mr. Buhari and the All Progressives Congress (APC) party. • Third, the sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has had a major impact on Nigeria’s economy and forced the government to make a number of cuts in public spending before the election. • Finally, the widespread electoral fraud that plagued previous elections in Nigeria was significantly reduced this time around, allowing for the freest and fairest presidential election in the country’s history.

Summary of the Last Elections: Results:

Source: National election authority

Name Here

12

Mozambique: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential and Parliamentary Elections – October 2014

Presidential Election Results: Parliamentary Election Results:

Frelimo and its presidential candidate Felipe Nyusi won a comprehensive victory in 2014’s presidential and parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the main opposition party, Renamo, suffered another defeat, despite a large share of the vote, raising the potential

for more unrest as that party rejected the results of these elections.

Name Here

13

Current Conflict: South Sudan

South Sudanese Government• President Salva Kiir and his government forces control the center of the country and the majority of oil fields in South Sudan.

Rebel Forces• The loose alliance of militias and defective army generals lead by former Vice President Riek Machar control many border regions in South Sudan.

Conflict Summary Main Combatants

• Ethnic tensions deepen as rebels target President Kiir’s Dinka ethnic group, leading to government retaliation against the Nuer people of Vice President Machar. This could easily lead to ethnic cleansing that would dramatically worsen the civil war.

• The United Nations and other humanitarian organizations find it too dangerous for humanitarian aid as the conflict in the country worsen. This would lead to the withdrawal of aid and civilian assistance.

Conflict Maps

Two years after the formation of South Sudan in 2011, a power struggle broke out between the President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. President Kiir accused the VP of attempting a coup, leading to the outbreak of a full-blown civil war that has displaced more than one million people. Rebel forces have since targeted the Dinka ethnic group, due to its ties with the president.

Potential Outcomes

• The United Nations Security Council voted to unanimously pass a resolution imposing sanctions on warring elements in South Sudan conflict

• Peace talks between President Salva Kiir and rebel chief Riek Machar that were mediated by Ethiopia failed in early 2015.

Recent Developments

Name Here

14

Current Conflict: Boko Haram Insurgency

Boko Haram• Islamic extremist group with influence in northeast Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon. Membership estimated to be 10,000 individuals recruited from around the region.

Nigeria• Nigeria’s government was slow to respond to the growing threat of the Boko Haram insurgency, enabling the militants to take control of a large section of northeastern Nigeria.

Niger, Chad and Cameroon• With the Boko Haram insurgency spreading beyond Nigeria’s borders, these three countries formed a coalition aimed at defeated the militants.

Conflict Summary Main Combatants

• The newly established African military force will reduce the Boko Haram’s area of influence, allowing for the opening of borders and re-establishment of economic commerce within the region.

• Recruits are emboldened by the Boko Haram’s notoriety and affiliation with Islamic State leading to the attraction of foreign fighters to the fragile region.

Conflict Maps

Since 2009, the Islamist militant group Boko Haram has targeted police, school, and political buildings in northern Nigeria. Boko Haram made recent news for declaring allegiance to the Islamic State, kidnapping 200 school girls, and bombing UN buildings. The Nigerian government has been criticized for a slow response to this terrorist group.

Potential Outcomes

• A four-nation military force from Chad, Niger, Cameroon, and Nigeria have been provided new weapons to combat Boko Haram. This coalition has been having recent successes driving back the insurgent group.

• The Boko Haram has lost many of its strongholds to this coalition force in recent months.

Recent Developments

Name Here

15

Potential Flashpoint: The Sahel

Chad• Key counter terrorist partner. Hosting French military forces for Operation Barkhane in Capital. Has 350,000 refugees from Sudan and the Central African Republic.

Mali• Islamist militants prowl the terrains of Mali, in search of victims to kidnap for ransom. French and West African soldiers have combated the forming of a fledgling Islamic state in northern Mali, but it continues to be a hotspot.

Niger• Has large numbers of malnourished children and 220,000 migrant workers returning from Libya due to violence. Niger is home to large deposits of uranium.

Food Scarcity• The United Nations, FAO and other humanitarian organizations are pledging millions of dollars in a emergency Sahel response plan due to starvation in the region.

Terrorism• Due to the lawlessness in the Sahel region it has become an attractor for terrorist groups to train and calculate attacks similar to that of Afghanistan pre-U.S. invasion.

Disease • Ill-equipped to handle disease Sahel region fights Cholera, Measles, and Polio not far away from the Ebola outbreaks that have occurred in Central Africa.

Flashpoint Summary Main Actors Global Implications

• UN Integrated Strategy fails to create a functional funding mechanism for governments and security forces. The region continues to become a hotbed for extremist groups threatening Western countries.

• International aid and French Operation Barkhane create stability and a deterrence for extremist groups.

• Climate change and the food crisis will make living in The Sahel unbearable for the growing population leading to spike in starvation.

Maps

The Sahel is West Africa’s poorest region stretching roughly 3,800km through desolate rocky terrain across several African countries; Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad.

Over the past 50 years, the region’s small agricultural communities experienced a series of severe droughts.

A weak governmental presence in the region has lead to unrest and has allowed Islamist and Tuareg militant groups to flourish.

The Sahel’s population is expected to reach 100 million by 2020 and 200 million by 2050, despite its dearth of water and arable land.

Potential Outcomes

Name Here

Potential Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Eritrea gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993.

However, nearly 400 km (250 mi) of border were left unresolved and this is what triggered

the recent war.

Major Disputes

Both countries continue to pursue an aggressive policy towards one another, though neither country stands to benefit much from a second war in such a short period of time. The likelihood of a second war remains high, though it would cause further

economic hardships for both countries.

In a war that lasted from 1998 to 2000, Ethiopian forces drove deep into Eritrea, but did not win a decisive

victory.

As a result of Eritrean independence, Ethiopia is now a land-locked country.

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa: Political Risk Outlook

• Sub-Saharan Africa faces some of the highest political risk levels of any region in the world.

• The biggest risk is internal and regional conflict that has resulted from arbitrary borders and ethnic and religious disputes.

• Further, few areas of the region have developed strong democracies and this has encouraged the development of dictatorships.

Current Political Risk Ratings:

Low Risk………………High Risk

Political Risk Outlook:

• ISA Risk Ratings– 0.0 to 1.9 = Low Risk– 2.0 to 3.9 = Low to Moderate Risk– 4.0 to 5.9 = Moderate Risk– 6.0 to 7.9 = Moderate to High Risk– 8.0 to 10 = High Risk

Name Here

Regional Economic Outlook

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Overview

Per Capita GDP at PPP

Avg

. A

nn

ua l

GD

P G

row

th 2

0 11 -

2015

Sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s poorest region, despite recording some of the highest rates of economic growth over the past decade.• The region in blessed with natural resources, but cursed by climatic extremes, poor infrastructures and civil unrest.• Moreover, countries with vast natural resources such as oil face rapidly growing populations that dilute earnings from these natural resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy remains in desperate need of diversification.• The region has only a small manufacturing sector that is largely confined to a small number of countries, particularly South Africa.• Foreign investment in the region continues to lag behind other regions, although rising demand for natural resources in Asia has led to a surge of foreign investment from countries such as China and India.

Civil unrest, population expansion and the poor state of the region’s infrastructure will all serve to maintain the high levels of poverty across Sub-Saharan Africa. In order to

improve the region’s economic outlook, long-term solutions must be implemented such as infrastructure improvements and better education.

Source: ISA Economic Forecasts,

Name Here

Dark Blue = 6.0%+Blue = 4.5% to 6.0%Light Blue = 3.0% to 4.5%Orange = 1.5% to 3.0%Red = Below 1.5%

Africa: 2011-2015 Annual Average

Economic Growth Map

Many countries in Africa have suffered from a significant slowdown in recent

years as a result of political unrest or the fall in natural resource prices. Central

and eastern areas of Africa are a notable exception to this trend.

Name Here

Dark Blue = 6.0%+Blue = 4.5% to 6.0%Light Blue = 3.0% to 4.5%Orange = 1.5% to 3.0%Red = Below 1.5%

Africa: 2016-2020 Annual Average

Economic Growth Map

Average economic growth rates in Africa are forecast to trend upwards in the coming years as the price of oil and

other natural resources trends upwards. East Africa will be home to most of

Africa’s fastest-growing economies.

Name Here

West African Economic Growth Outlook

Nigeria’s economy has slowed sharply in the wake of the sharp decline in oil prices since 2014. Meanwhile, Ghana had been one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s star performers until the recent downturn. Elsewhere in West Africa, political instability has hampered

many countries’ economic development in recent years.

Source: ISA Economic Forecasts, national statistics

Name Here

Central African Economic Growth Outlook

Angola’s economy had been the region’s big success story over the past 15 years, as the country’s oil industry has driven economic growth. The other oil-dominated

economies of the region will suffer from inconsistent output and lower prices, but are forecast to grow at a solid pace later in the forecast period.


Name Here

East African Economic Growth Outlook

East Africa has experienced relatively strong economic growth in recent years and recent developments suggest that most countries in this region will continue to record solid rates of economic growth in the years ahead. Economic integration in this region

could further boost economic rates in the coming years.


Name Here

Southern African Economic Growth Outlook

Growth in South Africa has been below average in recent years due to labor unrest and lower levels of export demand. Meanwhile, investment from South Africa into

neighboring countries is helping them to achieve healthy growth rates. On the other hand, Zimbabwe’s economy is facing yet another serious crisis after a short recovery.


Name Here

Sub-Saharan African Economic Growth Summary

Economic mismanagement and corruption remain two of the biggest constraints to

economic growth.

Key Factors

Political strife is damaging some of Africa’s most advanced economies, such

as Zimbabwe and Kenya.

Oil and mining remain the backbone of many African economies as diversification

is lacking.

South African growth will remain steady and will benefit all of southern Africa.

Economic growth will be inconsistent and poverty will grow as the region’s

population expands.

All countries in Sub-Saharan Africa face significant risks to their economic future. Malaria, HIV and other diseases will dampen growth in many parts of Africa as war and strife will continue to plague wide sections of the region. This will not allow the region

to take the steps necessary to modernize and diversify its economy.

Name Here

West African Inflation Outlook

Inflation rates have fallen sharply in most of the region in recent years as a result of the downturn in food and energy prices. Two notable exceptions are Nigeria and Ghana,

where weaker currencies have raised the costs of imported goods.


Name Here

Central African Inflation Outlook

Inflation rates in Central Africa had fallen in recent years, particularly in Congo-Kinshasa and Angola. However, inflationary pressures have risen again in some areas

of Central Africa, most notably in Angola.


Name Here

East African Inflation Outlook

Drought and high energy prices raised the inflation rates in most areas of East Africa in previous years. As food and energy prices decline have declined, inflation rates have

fallen to more manageable levels.


Name Here

Southern African Inflation Outlook

South African inflation will hold steady over the near term and this will have a big impact upon neighboring countries. In Zimbabwe, runaway inflation has been brought

under control by the adoption of the US dollar and the South African rand in that country, with deflation emerging as a new threat.


Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa Key Exchange Rates Against the US Dollar(1 US$ = Local Currency)

Source: ISA Economic Forecasts, OANDA

Name Here

Foreign Investment in West Africa

Foreign investment in West Africa remains limited to the oil industry in Nigeria and the fledgling oil industry in Ghana, with a few small investments in agriculture and mining elsewhere in the region. However, with new oil discoveries being made elsewhere in

West Africa, foreign investment levels could rise significantly in the years ahead.

Source: UNCTAD

Name Here

Foreign Investment in Central Africa

Foreign investment in Central Africa is focused on the oil industries in Angola, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, Cameroon and some smaller countries. Foreign investment in

Congo-Kinshasa’s mining industry is also on the rise, despite that country’s political uncertainty.

Source: UNCTAD

Name Here

Foreign Investment in East Africa

East Africa receives less foreign investment than any other area in Africa, due to its relative lack of natural resources such as oil and precious minerals (apart from

Tanzania and Uganda). Furthermore, the region’s tourism industry that has been a leading recipient of foreign investment is under threat from terrorism.

Source: UNCTAD

Name Here

Foreign Investment in Southern Africa

South Africa will remain a leading recipient of foreign investment in Africa, despite a poor record of attracting FDI inflows in recent years. Elsewhere in the region, foreign

investment will be targeted at the large mining and tourism industries in countries such as Namibia and Botswana. Mozambique too, will see an increase in FDI inflows.

Source: UNCTAD

Name Here

Regional Foreign Investment

Much of the recent foreign investment in Sub-Saharan Africa has focused on the oil industry, allowing Nigeria and other oil producers to become the region’s leading

foreign investment recipients. Elsewhere, foreign investment remains scarce, although Chinese and Indian investments are eyeing natural resource investments in the region.

Source: UNCTAD

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic Risk Outlook

• As the world’s poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa naturally faces some of the world’s highest levels of economic risk.

• The lack of political stability is the greatest risk for the region’s economy.

• Another major risk is the region’s rapidly growing population that is contributing to the spread of poverty.

• Nevertheless, high rates of economic growth in many of the region’s leading economies have helped to slightly push down economic risk levels in recent years.

Current Economic Risk Ratings:


Economic Risk Outlook:


Name Here

Demographic and Environmental Outlook

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa Population Trends

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Total Population

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

900,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Working-Age Population

Working-Age Non-Working-Age

Sub-Saharan Africa’s high rate of population growth is continuing, though unevenly across the region. In Southern Africa, populations are already beginning to decline as a

result of the AIDS crisis. However, in countries will low rates of HIV/AIDS infection, rapid population growth is continuing.

Source: US Census Bureau


Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa Population Trends by Country

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Total Population

Nigeria Ethiopia Congo-KinshasaSouth Africa Tanzania KenyaUganda Ghana MadagascarOthers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Others

Madagascar

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Uganda

Congo-Kinshasa

Nigeria

Contribution to Regional Population Growth (2000-2050)

Rapid population growth continues in all areas of Sub-Saharan Africa except those that are suffering from high rates of HIV/AIDS infections. Many countries in West and East Africa will see their populations more than double over the next five decades, though

neither area will be able to support such population growth in the long-term.



Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa Language Composition

0 200,000,000 400,000,000

Others

Portuguese

Africanlanguages

French

English

Largest Official LanguagesEnglish is the leading language in

most of the key economic centers of Sub-Saharan Africa.

English, French and Portuguese remain the official languages of nearly all Sub-Saharan African countries, even decades after independence. English’s role is enhanced by its

use in South Africa and Nigeria, while Sub-Saharan Africa is home to more French-speakers than anywhere else in the world.

French is the leading language of large areas of West and Central

Africa.

Portuguese is the official language of Angola, Mozambique and a few

smaller countries.

Hundreds of indigenous languages are spoken as first languages

throughout the region.Source: CIA

Name Here

Africa: Languages Map

English is the leading international language spoken in Africa, followed by

French and Portuguese. Most of northern Africa is Arabic speaking, with English and French losing ground in this

region to that language.

Blue = EnglishPurple = FrenchGreen = PortugueseGray = ArabicRed = SpanishOrange = Other

Name Here

Largest Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa

Lagos is Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest city and the perfect example of the dangers of rapid urbanization in the region. Meanwhile, the region’s main commercial centers are

Johannesburg, Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar and Abidjan.

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Lagos

Kinsh

asa-

Brazz

avill

e

Johan

nesburg

Abidja

n

Ibad

anKano

Cape Town

Nairobi

Accra

Addis A

baba

Luanda

Dar es S

alaa

mDaka

r

Durban

Harare

Lusaka

Conarky

Map

uto

Preto

ria

Kaduna

Metropolitan Area Population

Source: World Gazetteer

Name Here

Top Environmental Issues in Sub-Saharan Africa

Vast areas of Africa are threatened by the expanding Sahara Desert.• Climate change and improper agricultural methods are the main causes of this desertification problem.• Population growth means that more agricultural land will be needed, but in reality the amount of land available for agriculture is shrinking.

Water supplies are scarce in many areas of the Sub-Saharan Africa.• Disputes over water rights will become a major threat to peace in the region.• East Africa in particular will experience growing disputes over water.

Water Supplies

Desertification

Few areas in the world are as associated with its wildlife as is Sub-Saharan Africa.• However, a growing human population and the reduction of land available to Africa’s wildlife has led to major reductions in animal populations, while poaching is also a major problem in this region.

Protecting Sub-Saharan Africa’s

Wildlife

Sub-Saharan Africa will face an ever-growing threat to its environment as population growth leads to deforestation, desertification and destruction of the region’s wildlife.

Moreover, industrial growth and the increase in motor vehicle traffic will also play a vary harmful role in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Name Here

Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic and Environmental Risk Outlook

• Sub-Saharan Africa faces some of the world’s greatest demographic challenges as a result of the region’s AIDS epidemic and high birth rate.

Current Risk Ratings:


Demographic Risk Outlook:


• Environmental risk levels have risen dramatically over the past few decades and are likely to rise further in the coming.

Environmental Risk Outlook:

Name Here

Summary

Name Here

Future Outlook Summary

Demographic and Environmental Outlook• Rapid population growth will continue across most areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, threatening further damage to the region’s environment and a continuing growth in the number of people living in poverty.• Most of southern Africa will see population declines as AIDS-related deaths raise the death rate. AIDS cases will rise in many areas of Sub-Saharan Africa in the coming years.• Wildlife will continue to suffer at the hands of population growth and the loss of natural habitats.

Political Outlook• Many areas of Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience political instability, with few countries avoiding internal unrest in the near future.• Much of Central Africa and the Sahel will remain unstable, despite the recent attempts at achieving stability.• South Africa and Nigeria will continue to exercise considerable political leadership, but both are also at risk from internal unrest.• Outside powers will continue to compete for influence in many areas of the region.

Economic Outlook• The recent fall in oil and natural resource prices will continue to have a detrimental impact on many of Sub-Saharan Africa’s leading economies.• Moreover, many countries in the region will continue to suffer from economic instability with wildly fluctuating growth rates.• A lack of skilled workers and the region’s dire infrastructure will prevent economic growth from reaching its full potential in many areas of the region for the foreseeable future.

Name Here

ISA Region Report

Sub-Saharan Africa

December 2016 Edition

ISA Region Report East Europe

Documents