Is Cl oud Computing a g a mb le?
Is the cloud a gamble
May 17, 2015
Simon Wardley examines of the benefits & risks of cloud computing and how this industry is shaping up.
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Transcript
Is Cloud Computing
a gamble?
Simon Wardley
DANGER!Will Robinson
DANGER!
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pai
n
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Severerisk of harm
25 slides
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Severerisk of harm
306 slides
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Cloud Computing
What isCloud Computing?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like computers on the internet,
innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Disruptive shift of the computing stack to online
services.
It’s like computers on the internet,
innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
Image from Oliver Twist,
It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s
platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds,
which is different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in
and did I mention infrastructure?
67 definitions
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
No. Slides
Pai
n
OK
Severerisk of harm
306 slides
1. On-demand self-service
Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you
need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is
broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud
Platforms and Cloud Applications. (see "Cloud Pyramid")
1. On-demand self-service
Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you
need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is
broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud
Platforms and Cloud Applications. (see "Cloud Pyramid")Cloud Pyramid
+ 8 definitions
2. A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more
efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
2. A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more
efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
new
2. A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more
efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
distant
3. the ability to draw IT resources
from a third party source.
No definition
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
Our Product
Cloud =
What is Industrial
Revolution?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like mechanised horses, innit.
43 definitions
1. Broad socioeconomic and
technological changes starting in the early 18th century.
2. Rapid development of industry in
the early 19th century.
No definition
Not a thing
Transition
Industrial Revolution is a period in the18th and 19th centuries when major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and transportation had a profound effect on socioeconomic and culture conditions
It’s like mechanised horses, innit.
It’s like computers on the internet,
innit.
“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. from a product towards a service based economy.
Why I.T. is changing.
Benefits & Risks.
Why I.T. is changing.
Canonical and the Cloud.
Benefits & Risks.
Why I.T. is changing.
Is Cloud Computing
a gamble?
Why I.T. is changing.
Paul Strassmann
http://www.strassmann.com/
Why I.T. is changing
Not all IT is the same.
Why I.T. is changing
Not all IT has value.
Why I.T. is changing
imperfect to perfect competition
Why I.T. is changing
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Why I.T. is changing
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Today’s boredom
Why I.T. is changing
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Innovation
Why I.T. is changing
BespokeInnovation
Why I.T. is changing
ProductsBespokeInnovation
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Why I.T. is changing
Commoditisation
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Competitive Advantage
Why I.T. is changing
Commoditisation
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Cost of doing business
Why I.T. is changing
Commoditisation
Innovation
Why I.T. is changing
1832
Innovation
Why I.T. is changing
1832
Bespoke
Innovation
Why I.T. is changing
1832
Bespoke
1837
Products
Image from Oliver Twist
Image from Chicago Historical Society
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Innovation
Why I.T. is changing
1832
Bespoke
1837
Products
1890
Utility Grids
(Services)
Why I.T. is changing
Harvey Hubbell(1857-1927)
Innovation
Why I.T. is changing
1832
Bespoke
1837
Products
1930
National Grid
(Services)
As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value
Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing
Why I.T. is changing
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Today’s boredom
Not all IT is the same.
Why I.T. is changing
As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has
no strategic value
Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing
Innovatio
n
Products
Bespoke
Service
s
Why I.T. is changing
X
Y
Ubi
quity
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
elUbi
quity
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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mon
Ubi
quity
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
TV’s & Phones
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Innovation
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Bespoke
Products
Services
Innovation
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Innovation of CRM.
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Mid '80s DB marketing.
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
CRM products90’s
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
“Cloud Providers”like
Salesforce
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Accounts Payable
Company Web site
Wiki
Expense Procedure
Payroll
Social Network Analysis
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Accounts Payable
Company Web site
Wiki
Expense Procedure
Payroll
Social Network Analysis
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing
Products
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Widespread
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Widespread
Feature Complete
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
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Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Widespread
Feature Complete
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
“as a Service”Volume Operations
Why I.T. is changing
Services
Why I.T. is changing
John McCarthy
Utility Computing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
highly disruptive
Why I.T. is changing
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Why I.T. is changing
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
newnew
new new
Why I.T. is changing
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
CreativeDestruction
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Commoditisation
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Why I.T. is changing
Power
ProductsBespokeInnovation Hardware
Internet
Why I.T. is changing
Power
ProductsBespokeGoogle Hardware
Internet
Why I.T. is changing
67 definitions of “cloud computing”
Services
Commoditisation
Innovation
Enables
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
Why I.T. is changing
Services
Commoditisation
Innovation
Accelerates
Why I.T. is changing
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Rate of evolution of a system
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesInnovation
Rate of evolution of a system
directly related to
organisation of its subsystems
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesInnovation
Why I.T. is changing
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Componentisation
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application Service
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
Service
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
Service
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
Service
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
Service
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
x 100
Database Platform
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application Service
Hypervisor
Why I.T. is changing
Database Platform
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application Service
Hypervisor Infrastructure
Why I.T. is changing
Database Platform
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Virtualisation
Platform
Infrastructure
Application Service
Why I.T. is changing
Database Platform
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application Service
Virtualisation
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
(Componentisation)
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Why I.T. is changing
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Widespread
Feature Complete
Why I.T. is changing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Volume Operations
Services
CPU
Amazon EC2Infrastructure as a Service
Why I.T. is changing
CPU
Google App Engine
Amazon EC2
Platform as a Service
Infrastructure as a Service
Why I.T. is changing
CPU
SalesForce
Google App Engine
Amazon EC2
Software as a Service
Platform as a Service
Infrastructure as a Service
Why I.T. is changing
As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has
no strategic value
Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Cost of doing business
Why I.T. is changing
Commoditisation
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Disruptive Shift
Why I.T. is changing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
(Componentisation)
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Why I.T. is changing
Why I.T. is changing
“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
CreativeDestruction
Why I.T. is changing
Why I.T. is changing
John McCarthy
Utility Computing
Recap
Commoditisation
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Recap
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Accounts Payable
Company Web site
Wiki
Expense Procedure
Payroll
Social Netwok Analysis
Recap
Recap
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Bespoke
Products
Services
Innovation
Recap
Paul Strassmann
http://www.strassmann.com/
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Componentisation
Recap
Database Platform
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application Service
Virtualisation
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
Recap
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Disruptive
Recap
Recap
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
“As a Service”
Services
CPU
SalesForce
Google App Engine
Amazon EC2
Software as a Service
Platform as a Service
Infrastructure as a Service
Recap
John McCarthy
Utility Computing
Recap
Transition
Recap
“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
ProductCloud !
Benefits & Risks.
Why I.T. is changing.
• Economies of scale. (volume)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
You
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
You
Market
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Competitive Gap
You
Market
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
You
Market
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco-system.
Professor Leigh M. Van Valen
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Professor Leigh M. Van Valen
Red QueenHypothesis
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Competitive Gap
Market
You
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Disruptive Shift
Transition
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
• Management.
Transition
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
• Trust.
• Management.
Transition
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
• Trust.
• Transparency.
• Management.
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply
• Transparency.
• Management.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Services
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Price competition.
• Suitability.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
• Lock-in.
• Price competition.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
• Lock-in.
• Second sourcing.
• Price competition.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Adoption Barriers
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Gap
Market
You
Vs
Canonical and the Cloud.
Benefits & Risks.
Why I.T. is changing.
Canonical and the Cloud
• Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
Canonical and the Cloud
• Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
Canonical and the Cloud
• Over 10,000,000 users.
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
• Lock-in.
• Second sourcing.
• Price competition.
Canonical and the Cloud
Electricity
Canonical and the Cloud
BOOM!
Electricity
Canonical and the Cloud
Standard Output
BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud
Data
Application
You
Canonical and the Cloud
Platform
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Data
Application
Provider(i.e. CogHead)
Canonical and the Cloud
Platform
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Data
Application
BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud
Platform
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Platform
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Data
Application
BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud
Platform
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Platform
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Data
Application
Multiple Providers
Canonical and the Cloud
Platform PlatformEasy
Switching
Data
Application
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud
Platform Platform
Data
Application
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Standard Output
Canonical and the Cloud
Paul Baran
Canonical and the Cloud
IPX / SPXBanyan Vines
AppleTalkSNA
DECNET
Canonical and the Cloud
IPX / SPXBanyan Vines
AppleTalkSNA
Decnet
TCP/IP
Canonical and the Cloud
IPX / SPXBanyan Vines
AppleTalkSNA
Decnet
TCP/IP
Open
Canonical and the Cloud
IPX / SPXBanyan Vines
AppleTalkSNA
Decnet
TCP/IPBind
SendMailApache
Open SourceOpen
Canonical and the Cloud
TCP/IP
IPX / SPXBanyan Vines
AppleTalkSNA
Decnet
Innovation
(Componentisation)
Canonical and the Cloud
Harvey Hubbell(1857-1927)
Canonical and the Cloud
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud
Application
Platform
Amazon EC2
Canonical and the Cloud
Ubuntu Server Edition on Amazon EC2.
http://www.ubuntu.com/ec2
Canonical and the Cloud
9.04 (April)Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud
http://www.ubuntu.com/cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Ubuntu Server Edition
Physical Machines (bare bones)
Cloud Controller
Node Controller
KVM Hyp.Web UI
VMEucalyptus
Private cloudTracks Amazon EC2 API
Canonical and the Cloud
Tracks Amazon EC2 API
Uses KVM hypervisor
Ubuntu Server Edition
Physical Machines (bare bones)
Cloud Controller
Node Controller
KVM Hyp.Web UI
VMEucalyptus
Private cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Tracks Amazon EC2 API
Uses KVM hypervisor
EBS & S3 EquivalentUbuntu Server Edition
Physical Machines (bare bones)
Cloud Controller
Node Controller
KVM Hyp.Web UI
VMEucalyptus
Private cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Tracks Amazon EC2 API
Uses KVM hypervisor
EBS & S3 Equivalent
Completely open sourced.
Ubuntu Server Edition
Physical Machines (bare bones)
Cloud Controller
Node Controller
KVM Hyp.Web UI
VMEucalyptus
Private cloud
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Private Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Hypervisor
Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Hypervisor
Canonical and the Cloud
Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
Easy Switching
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
• Greener (efficient supply & demand)
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Competitive Gap
Market
You
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Public cloud Private cloud
Portability and burst scalability
Ubuntu MIEC2
Ubuntu MIUEC
Standard Ouptut
Canonical and the Cloud
Ecosystem
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Canonical and the Cloud
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Canonical and the Cloud
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Canonical and the Cloud
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Price
Canonical and the Cloud
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Quality of Service
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Feature Differentiation
Canonical and the Cloud
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Price vs QoS
Canonical and the Cloud
CompetitiveMarket
Canonical and the Cloud
Recap
Commoditisation
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Recap
Recap
Paul Strassmann
http://www.strassmann.com/
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Disruptive
Recap
Recap
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
“as a Service”Industry
John McCarthy
Utility Computing
Recap
Recap
“Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Recap
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Competitive Gap
Market
You
Recap
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
• Lock-in.
• Second sourcing.
• Price competition.
Recap
Standard Output
Recap
IPX / SPXBanyan Vines
AppleTalkSNA
Decnet
TCP/IPBind
SendMailApache
Open SourceOpen
Recap
Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor HypervisorStandard Output
Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
Recap
9.04 Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud
(Eucalyptus)
Recap
CompetitiveMarket
Recap
Recap
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Is Cloud Computing
a gamble?
Yes
• Economies of scale. (volume)
• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Competitive Gap
Market
You
Is cloud computing a gamble?
what, whom, when?
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
• Lock-in.
• Second sourcing.
• Price competition.
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
• Lock-in.
• Second sourcing.
• Price competition.
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Standard Output
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Gap
Market
You
Vs
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Transition
• Trust.
• Security of supply.
• Transparency.
• Management.
General
• Suitability.
• Lock-in.
• Second sourcing.
• Price competition.
Is cloud computing a gamble?
JoeInfrastructureas a Service
Is cloud computing a gamble?
JoeBare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?
JoeBare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Is cloud computing a gamble?
JoeBare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Tom
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?
DickPaaS
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
DickDevelopment Platform
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Development Platform
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?
HarryDevelopment Platform
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Mapping API
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Tom
Mapping API
Development Platform
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
AliceMapping API
Development Platform
SaaS
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
AliceMapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Harry Mapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Tom Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Mapping API
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Dick
Mapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Mapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Bob
Is cloud computing a gamble?
AliceMapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Mapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Mapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Mapping API
Development Platform
Transport Routing
Hypervisor Technology
Storage
Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Mapping APIDev
elopm
ent P
latfo
rm
Transport RoutingHypervisor Technology
Storage
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Bob Alice
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Bob Alice
Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?
JoeHouse House House
Is cloud computing a gamble?
House House House
SecurityTom
Is cloud computing a gamble?
House House House
Security
Dick
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
Transparency
whoops ...
the outtakes ...
i.e. more slides ...
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
G. Happy Clouds
D. Part III - More or less
Good, Bad & Ugly
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
(Componentisation)
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
The Good
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Platform
Application
Infrastructure
Disruptive Shift
The Bad
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Widespread
Feature Complete
The Bad
As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value
Nicholas Carr
The Bad
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
CreativeDestruction
The Bad
John McCarthy
Utility Computing
The Ugly
Software
Framework
Hardware
The Ugly
Software as a Service (SaaS)
Framework as a Service (FaaS)
Hardware as a Service (HaaS)
2007
The Ugly
Robert Lefkowitz
“this is going to lead to a whole lot of aaS.”
Oscon 2007
2007 - 2008
The Ugly
The Ugly
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
Software
Framework
Hardware
DaaS
DaaS
XaaS
PaaSSaaSp
SaaSu
WaaSIaaS FaaS
OaaS
FaaSHaaSSaaS
SaaSyDaaS
DBaaS
2008
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
The Ugly
Application as a Service (SaaS)
Platform as a Service (PaaS)
Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)
2009
Terminology.
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
G. Happy Clouds
D. Part III - More or less
Part IWhy I.T. is complex
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation of CRM.
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity Uncertain
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity Uncertain
Deviation
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity Uncertain
Deviation
Differential
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity Uncertain
Deviation
Differential
Worth
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Dynamic
Complexity
AgileXP / Scrum
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Utility-like provision of CRM
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
“Cloud Providers”like
Salesforce
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Defined
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Defined
No Deviation
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Defined
No Deviation
CODB
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Defined
No Deviation
CODB
Cost
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Defined
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Complexity
Prince 2, Six Sigma
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Prince 2, Six Sigma
AgileXP, Scrum
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
CRM
CRM
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Six Sigma
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
COMMODITY
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
INNOVATION
Complexity
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity Different
Methodologies
Complexity
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
G. Happy Clouds
D. Part III - More or less
Part IIThe Paradox
Complexity ... Part II
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Prince 2, Six Sigma
AgileXP, Scrum
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
INNOVATION
Six Sigma
Complexity ... Part II
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Accounts Payable
Company Web site
Wiki
Expense Procedure
Payroll
Social Network Analysis
Complexity ... Part II
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Competitive Gap
You
Market
Complexity ... Part II
The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco-system.
Professor Leigh M. Van Valen
Complexity ... Part II
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
newnew
new new
Complexity ... Part II
http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/
Survival today requires ‘coherence,
coordination and stability’ [order].
&
Survival tomorrow requires the replacement
of these virtues [disorder].
Salaman & Storey
Innovation Paradox
Complexity ... Part II
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Order
Disorder
Complexity ... Part II
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Six Sigma
Complexity ... Part II
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Complexity ... Part II
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
20% Rule
Complexity ... Part II
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
20% Rule
Complexity ... Part II
Rigorous defined procedures
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
G. Happy Clouds
D. Part III - More or less
Things to watch ...
Application
Platform
Infrastructure
Things to watch
CompetitiveMarket
Things to watch
Platform Platform
Data
Application
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Operating System
Hypervisor
Bare Metal
Standard Output
Things to watch
Platform
Things to watch
PlatformTechnology
Vendor
Things to watch
TechnologyVendor
Provider
Things to watch
TechnologyVendor
Provider
Consumer
Things to watch
TechnologyVendor
Provider
ISV
Consumer
Things to watch
TechnologyVendor
Provider
Consumer
ISV
Things to watch
TechnologyVendor
Provider
Consumer
ISV
Locked-in
Things to watch
Open Standard
Provider
Consumer
ISV
Things to watch
EXTEND
Provider
Consumer
ISV
Things to watch
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Feature Differentiation
Things to watch
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Price vs QoS
Things to watch
Platform
Open Source
ReferenceModel
Things to watch
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
H. Happy Clouds
E. Part III - More or less
Part IIIMore Or Less ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
I’m in ur Internets
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
I’m in ur Internets
... web fohwr zero!!
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Payroll
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Company Web site
Payroll
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Payroll
Neuristic Kitten Thing
More innovation
Company Web site
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
More innovation
Dynamic
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
INNOVATION
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Competitive Gap
You
Market
More innovation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco-system.
Professor Leigh M. Van Valen
More innovation
“more efficient”
More innovation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
“more process”
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
More innovation
Defined Processes
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
COMMODITY
More innovation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
COMMODITY
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Defined
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
INNOVATION
More innovation
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) !
CreativeDestruction
More innovation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
“innovate more”
More innovation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
“less process”
More innovation
“more process”
More innovation
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Image from Oliver Twist,
“ideas process”
More innovation
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Skunk works
Rigorous defined procedures
More innovation
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
G. Happy Clouds
D. Part III - More or less
Adopt a fast life ...
Commoditisation
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Fast life
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
Product Competition
Fast life
Early
Adoption
Time
Products
Laggards
Fast life
“New and Improved”
Adoption
Time
Products
“Original”
Fast life
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
Diffusion of Product
Innovation
Everett Rogers
( 1931 - 2004 )
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Product
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
INNOVATION
Product
Fast life
“New and Improved”
Adoption
Time
Products
“Original”
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
Widespread
Feature Complete
INNOVATION
Product
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubi
quity
Certainty
INNOVATION
Services
Product
Fast life
ServicesProductsBespokeInnovation
highly disruptive
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Standard Components
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Standard Components
Componentisation
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation
Standard Components
Componentisation
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation
Standard Components
Commoditisation
Componentisation
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation
Standard Components
Commoditisation
Componentisation
Fast life
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Certainty
Ubi
quity
Innovation
Standard Components
Commoditisation
Componentisation
Fast life
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
G. Happy Clouds
D. Part III - More or less
Happy clouds ...
Happy Clouds
Three Rules happy
Rule 1
Three Rules happy
Run the service on my own machines.
Happy Clouds
Three Rules happy
Rule 1
Rule 2Easily switch between my machines and a cloud provider.
Run the service on my own machines.
Happy Clouds
Three Rules happy
Easily switch between my machines and a cloud provider.
Easily switch between cloud providers.
Run the service on my own machines.
Rule 1
Rule 2
Rule 3
Happy Clouds
Bare Metal
Hypervisor
Private Cloud
Happy Clouds
Bare Metal Bare Metal
Hypervisor Hypervisor
Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
Easy Switching
Happy Clouds
CompetitiveMarket
Happy Clouds
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
G. Happy Clouds
D. Part III - More or less
End ...
Beyond End ...
Nov
el
Low High
Com
mon
Ubiquity
Certainty
InnovationBespoke
Products
Services
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