IRAN and The United States of America Future is Foggy Abbas Maleki Presented at Islamic Society of Professors Sharif University of Technology Feb. 28,

IRAN andThe United States of AmericaFuture is FoggyFuture is Foggy

Abbas MalekiPresented at

Islamic Society of Professors Sharif University of TechnologyFeb. 28, 2005

Monroe Doctrine, US Isolationism, 1823• 1851: Friendship and Navigation Treaty

between Iran and US (Amir Kabir era)• 1856: Establishment of US Political

Mission in Bushehr• 1883: US Embassy was opened in Tehran• 1884: Iran Embassy in Washington (Haji

Washington) • 1906: Iran’s Constitution Revolution• 1910: Morgan Shuster, American finance

advisor to Iran’s Government

End of Monroeism, 1914

• 1919: US Statement against British-Iran Agreement

• 1921: Arthur Chester Millspough: Second finance advisor

• 1921: Coup d’etat by Reza Shah

• 1921: Law of Concession of North Oil Resources to US Sinclair Company

• 1924: Assassination of Major Robert Imberie, US Deputy Consular in Tehran

The Third Power

• 1941: Occupation of Iran by Allies• 1942: US sent advisory teams and

missions to Iran• 1943: 6 American missions and centers of

influence were located in Iran• 1943: PGSC consisted 30000

noncombatant American troops who aided the USSR providing goods

• 1946: Soviet Withdrawal and US Nuclear Ultimatum

American Interventionism

• 1950: Nationalization of Iran’s Oil Industry

• US and Dr. Mosaddiq

• 1952: Operation Ajax, Dr. Wilber Mission

• 1953: Coup d’etat of August 1953: Momentous event between two states

Politics of Retrenchment

• 1954: Oil Concessions• Baghdad Pact: UK, Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq,

Iran, (with support of US), Political and economic alliance

• 1956: SAVAK• 1958: Ghasem Revolution in Iraq• 1958: CENTO Pact; without Iraq, then METO• 1958: Shah visited Washington• 1959: Bilateral Defense Agreement

between Iran and US• 1960: Military Takeover in Turkey

American Style of Reform

• 1960: Shah supported Nixon in US presidential Campaign

• 1961: J. F. Kennedy became US President with pledge to help the peoples in other countries because of their rights, Alliance for Progress

• 1961: Khrushchev warned Lippmann to turbulent situation in Iran

• 1961: Ali Amini as Prime Minister decided to do reforms

• 1962; VP Johnson made visit to Tehran• 1963: Referendum on Shah’s six-point reform

program• 1963: Khordad,15 Movement, Position of Ayatollah

Khomeini and then exile to Turkey.

US Concentration on Pro-Pahlavi’s Policies

• 1964: Capitulation: Iran’s Majlis approved a law provided American military personnel and their dependents stationed in Iran with full

diplomatic immunity • 1964: Exile of Imam Khomeini in Turkey• 1965: PM Mansour was shot and Shah was

attacked, both for Capitulation• 1967: Shah’s visit to US• 1968; Shah and Hoveyda visited US• 1969: High Military Expenditure: 32 F-4 had

been sold to Iran, two naval fighters,..

Anti-Americanism Growth in Iran

• 1965: Mehdi Bahar’s Book: US as Colonial player• 1970: Tehran Investment Seminar, David Rockefeller and 34 US

industrialists participated.• 1970: Ayatollah Saidi condemned this seminar was tortured to death by

SAVAK• 1971: Inauguration of commemoration of 2500 years of Persian monarchy.

VP Spiro Agnew represented US.• 1972: Nixon-Kissinger visit to Tehran, Purchasing F-14 and F-15 by Iran• 1973: Joint Economic Commission of US & Iran. Only in 1975, the economic

agreement between two countries was $15 billions• 1973; Richard Helms, former Director of CIA appointed as US Ambassador

to Tehran as CIA middle East Center• 1973: Col. L. Hawkins, US military advisor was killed by armed political

group in Tehran.• 1975: US Air Force Col. P. Shaffer and J. Turner were assassinated.• 1976: Three American working on electronic surveillance system (IBEX),

were killed.

America in Bottleneck• 1977: William Sullivan was appointed as US Ambassador in

Tehran.• 1977: Despite of Shah’s support of Republicans, Democrat

Jimmy Carter took the White House. He urged on Human Rights.

• 1977: US Secretary of State Cyrus Vance traveled to Tehran, pledged to sell $1.8 billion of 160 F-16, $1.23 billion AWACS to Iran.

• 1977: When Shah and Farah with J. Carter stood on the White House lawn, uncooperative breezes carried tear gas directly to the face of Shah.

• 1979: General Robert Huyser, Deputy Commander in chief of the US European Command, traveled to Iran and described US design for choosing one PM from other side and Shah’s leaving the country.

• 1979; Shah fled Iran for the final time.• 1979: Bazargan and Yazdi met Brzezinski in Algiers• 1979: American Embassy had been taken by students.

An Overview of US-Iran Relations

1972-1977

• The value of US military sales to Iran amounted to $16.2 billion

• The military advisors reached to 35000

• Iran as a pillar of US two pillars policy in Persian Gulf played its role in:

-Dzofar Crises

-Iraqi Kurdistan

-Somalia

US and Iran’s Revolution

• 1979 Nov. 14: National Emergency by Carter

• 1979 Nov. 14: International Economic Emergency (Powers Act), US freezes Iranian assets.

• 1980 Apr. 7: Carter broke diplomatic relations with Iran

• 1980 Apr. 25 : US hostage rescue attempt failed in Tabas desert

Iran-Iraq War and the Role of US

• 1984: US Marine Headquarters in Lebanon exploded by suicide bomber

• 1984: Iran listed as supporter of International Terrorism.

• 1987: Iranian goods were prohibited to import to US, even carpet, pistachio,

• 1991: Law on weapon’s non-proliferation to Iran and Iraq

• 1991: Ban Iranian ships entrance to US ports • 1992: Ban on export of chemical, biological, nuclear

and sophisticated weapons to Iran and Iraq

The Age of Sanctions• 1995: Prevention of participations of US companies in

Iran’s oil and gas fields development• 1995: Clinton decree on sanction of Iran oil and gas

fields: CONOCO contract cancelled.• 1996: D'Amato Bill: Ban on Iran and Libya oil & gas

investment more than $40 millions• 1997: ILSA: Ban on more than $20 millions,

Extraterritoriality • 1998: President Khatami interview with CNN• 1998: Suspension of ILSA for European companies in

G8 Summit• 1998: US removed Iran and Malaysia from the narcotics

producers’ list• 1999: Law for mandatory report on list of companies,

countries or individuals who help Iran on nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons to the Congress each 6 months

US accusations against Iran

• Iran supports the international terrorism• Iran violated human rights• Iran opposes to Arab Israeli peace

process• Iran is going to have access to nuclear

weapons• Iran is producing Weapons of Mass

Destruction (WMD) like chemical, biological, and missile launchers

Models for US to deal with Iran• Leadership

• Isolation

• Engagement

• Sticks and Carrots

• Sticks

• Attack

Leadership• Police must deal with all of the guys• “Without a combined approach with the Europeans,

the Iranians will drive a truck between the two sides and come out a winner.”

• “United States should make clear what it is prepared to give Iran in return for indefinite suspension of Iran's enrichment program.” Geoffrey Kemp

• Iran is a leader within Islamic World, and a major producer of oil and gas

• Iran had not attacked its neighbors. In fact, it had been the victim of Iraqi aggression and chemical strikes

• Within the Administration, we were intrigued by the possibility of an official dialogue with the constitutional authorities. Madeleine Albright, Dec. 17, 2001

Isolation

• This model proposes the best way to deal with Iran is to neglect Iran.

• Iran’s internal problems weaken Iran’s potential and tend to chaotic situation in the society.

Engagement

• The revolution in Iran has been in power for over 20 years

• It is not in danger of being overthrown.• No significant opposition movement exists• Iran’s laws are becoming more investor-friendly

and foreign companies are responding.• Robert pelletreau: major issues for US in the

21st century are international terrorism, narcotics trafficking, and the spread of nuclear weapons as three urgent will require cooperation between US and Iran to be dealt effectively

Sticks and Carrots

• "The reason we're having these discussions is because they were caught enriching uranium after they had signed a treaty saying they wouldn't enrich uranium.“ Bush in Bratislava, Feb. 2005

• “Bush May Weigh the Use of Incentives to Dissuade Iran,

• Bush hints U.S. may join in Iran concessions• Bush hints at talks rather than threats to rein in

Iran” NYT, Feb. 25, 2005 • U.S. Military Aircraft Not Flying over Iran, DoD

Spokesman Says, Feb. 22, 2005

Sticks and Carrots (2)

US and EU• Bush agreed after his summit meetings in

Brussels and Mainz this week to reconsider the US position.

• U.S. policy is “malevolent neglect.” • By not joining the talks, US administration can

say “I told you so” if they fail. • The Europeans, will say “the reason they failed

is because the United States did not join us.”

Sticks and Carrots (3)

Possible Carrots

for Iran from the United States

• Help joining the World Trade Organization

• The sale of spare parts for Iran's decrepit fleet of Boeing airliners

• The unfreezing of Iranian assets held in the USA.

Sticks

• ILSA: Iran Libya Sanction Act -US has used 104 sanctions from First World War

-From 1993, US has used 61 sanctions to other countries.

• Caspian oil and gas transportation via Iran is banned

• Radio Farda• IMF and WB loans for Iran are difficult• WTO membership• Sending the file to the UN Security Council• Legal cases in US courts

Security Council

• A confidential position paper being circulated by the Americans to the other board members called for a new written report on Iran by the Board's June meeting.

• It urged that meeting to ``take further action if needed'' against Iran - in effect a demand that Tehran be hauled before the U.N. Security Council if there is any indication it was defying the agency board on nuclear matters. AP, Feb. 26, 2005

Legal and judicial cases against Iran in US Courts• Terry Anderson, kidnapped in Lebanon,

claims $100 millions from Iran• Sicipio, $20 millions• Reed, $16 millions• Kabubson, $9 millions• Their wives: each $10 millions• Alisa Flato, who was killed in Israel,

Federal court ordered to give to her family $247 millions of Iran’s assets

Legal Affairs

• The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is overseeing about 80 investigations of foreign arms brokers, Iranian military agents and U.S. companies suspected of trying to smuggle to Iran sensitive systems or technology that could be used for military purposes.

• The export to Iran of such so-called dual-use technologies is banned. A dozen cases involving alleged exports to Iran are now before U.S. courts. Wall Street Journal, Feb. 26, 2005

US President’s Precedent

What did behave US, before its attack to Iraq?• Slightly more than two years ago, George

Bush invariably answered every question regarding his plans to attack Iraq by saying that he didn't have such plans on his desk.But by March, 2003, those plans had found their way to his desk

• " The lesson is that a U.S. attack is never publicized in advance, certainly not if it cannot be legitimized. It will be a surprise.

Inside Iran

• “Iran should have nuclear knowledge but not the bomb,” says Hossein Ibrahim, a clerk in a hardware store in Tehran.

• He, like many other Iranians interviewed here, says Iran needs the capability for nuclear energy and to deter enemies from attacking.

• There is broad public discontent with Iran's Islamic government, but little or no popular sentiment against the country's nuclear development program. USA Today, Feb. 22, 2005

Iran’s Reaction

• Iran will guarantee it is not making weapons. • It is willing to remain a member of the non-

proliferation treaty and give the IAEA access to all nuclear sites.

• In return, Iran wants an end to its isolation by Europe and “full engagement” in political, security, economic and technological fields.

• “If we have 100 billion euros in European investment in Iran, and if we have Iranian investment in Europe, Iran would never even think to divert the nuclear enrichment because the damage would be huge for Iran.” Hossein Mousavian, USA Today, Feb. 22, 2005

Real Situation

• American companies, especially electronics manufacturers like Hewlett-Packard are doing land-office business in Iran.

• They operate through subsidiaries in Dubai.  • American companies never stopped. We just operate

through our Canadian and European subsidiaries."  • This calls the American economic embargo of Iran

into very severe question. • It looks like the only people whose "economic activity"

with Iran is restricted are writers and scholars--a pretty poor, pretty ineffective policy. William Beeman, Feb. 2005

Attack

• On Tuesday, February 22, 2005, President George Bush said that the idea that he was preparing to attack Iran was “ridiculous,” but that “all options are on the table.” NYT, Feb. 24, 2005

• Is it inconsistent• Bush’s inconsistency is very logical and it is based

on Clausewitz's theory of war on which he believes all military attacks should be surprise attacks and the country should purposefully mislead the "enemy" into the belief that they are open to negotiations (such as the statement that all of our options are open) while they are preparing for war.

War Game (1)

War Game (2)

War Game (3)

Range of Shahab 3

US military in US military in AsiaAsia

War Game (4)

3 military Scenarios

First scenario (1)

First scenario (2)

First scenario (3)

Second Scenario

Second Scenario (2)

Second Scenario (3)

Second Scenario (4)

Iran’s Reaction

Israeli Factor

• “Israel has been privately pressing Washington to solve the Iran nuclear problem in a hint that Tel Aviv may be left with no choice but to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities”, defense officials say. AP, Feb. 23, 2005

• Israel Air Force Commander-in-Chief Major General Eliezer Shakedi said Monday that Israel must be prepared for an air strike on Iran in light of its nuclear activity. Haaretz, Feb. 21, 2005

Environment’s Reaction

Region’s Reaction

The Coat of the WAr

The Cost of War in Iraq

• According to a report on the cost of the war in Iraq released last week by the Democratic staff of the House Budget Committee, the war and ongoing insurgency could cost the United States between US$461 billion and $646 billion by 2015, depending on the scope and duration of operations. Asia Times, Feb. 2005

Cognitive War

Cognitive War (2)

Cognitive War (3)

Cognitive War (4)

War in Media

War in Media (2)

War in Media (3)

War in Media (4)

War in Media (5)

War in Media (6)Iran Said to Acquire Knowledge on Weapons

By GEORGE JAHN .c The Associated Press

VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Iran, through the black market network, had accumulated all the knowledge it needed by the late 1980s to set up technology that can be used to make atomic weapons, diplomats familiar with the work of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency said Saturday.

The diplomats, who are familiar with the work of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke to The Associated Press two days before the IAEA board meets on Iran and other potential world nuclear concerns.

An agency investigation during the past two years previously established that Iran ran a clandestine nuclear program for nearly two decades, including working on uranium enrichment - which can be used to make weapons.

The diplomats, who requested anonymity, suggested that the new revelations were significant because they indicated Iran had full possession of enrichment know-how from the black market network run by Pakistan's Abdul Qadeer Khan earlier than previously believed. 2/26/2005

War in Media (7)• Official Admits Iran May Hide Nuclear

Program In Tunnels Iran may be hiding its nuclear technology inside

special tunnels because of threats of attack by the United States, Tehran's chief nuclear negotiator said in an interview published Friday.

Hassan Rowhani, who has been negotiating with Germany, Britain and France over Iran's uranium enrichment program, was asked by an interviewer for the daily Le Monde: "Is it accurate that Iran has built tunnels meant to serve Iran's nuclear activities?"

Rowhani responded that reports Iran was building tunnels to hide its nuclear technology "could be true," he said. International Herald Tribune February 26, 2005

Conclusion

• US attack against Iran is serious• Iran must design policies to prevent any

escalation of tension between two countries.

• The role of elite and references in Iran’s society is pivotal

• Iranians in abroad also can play a significant role to show the realities to the Americans

Energy resource Energy resource peripheryperiphery

Energy demand Energy demand heartlandheartland

Thank [email protected]