Internet Futures. My Aim: share some thoughts about the Internet and its future think about some of the major factors that will shape our future +

Internet Futures

My Aim:

share some thoughts about the Internet and its future

think about some of the major factors that will shape our future

+

Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history


…of making very poor technology guesses


…of making very poor technology guesses

and regularly being taken bysurprise!

Can the Internetdo a better jobof matchingtechnology touser needs?

One approach:

1. Observe the situation and what’s happening

One approach:


3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

One approach:


2. Believe what we see

3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

(the most dif

ficult o

ne!)

What’s Happening Today:User Preferences and the

Market for Services


Market for Services

From radio to tv to ?


Market for Services



Market for Services

passiv

active


passive


Market for Services

passiv

activeYouT ube


From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ?

passive

Service Profile Choices

open vswalled

garden


open vswalled

garden Bundled servicesOpen collaboration

framework


open vswalled


framework

open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content

distribution networks


open vswalled


framework

Vertical integration

rolespecializatio

n




open vswalled


framework


rolespecializatio

n



userproduced vs

externallyproduced


open vswalled


framework


rolespecializatio

n

Passive usersActive usernetworks



userproduced vs

externallyproduced


Market for Services

passiv

activeYouT ube


From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ?

passive

Today’s users have already clearlydemonstrated their preference foran active service profile based on sharing

What’s Happening Today:Demand for Bandwidth

1995

Kb Modem tailsMb Muxed Trunks

What mass market customers want for $25 per month !


1995 2005

Kb

Mb

Modem tailsMb Muxed Trunks

DSL tailsGb Lamda Trunks



1995 2005 2015

Kb

Mb

Gb

Modem tailsMb Muxed Trunks

DSL tailsGb Lamda Trunks

fibre tailsBonded Tb Trunks?


What form

of infra

structu

re investm

ent

profile can deliv

er this o

utcome

in 7 years tim

e?

What’s Happening Today:Declining Revenue Profile

for incumbent telcos

What’s Happening Today:Declining Revenue Profile

for incumbent telcos

How to fill the gap of theInternet’s revenue leak?

Usage

B u s in e s s

driverdimensions

++

‘’

empowered userspenetration

?

technology

surplus

enabling windows

++

Moore’s Lawtechnology pace

rapid infill

technology

surplus

enabling windows

? see it ...... seize it !

++

Moore’s Lawtechnology pace

rapid infill

technology++

networkshared

shift

ofpower

end usercapability

technology push and network architecture

technology

new productionparadigms

netw a network- service‘ ‘produced outside

o f the network‘ ‘

“Over the top”applications

++

Content production is a commodity application that users sustain through sharing, rather than a valuable service

that is produced externally through dedicated specialized production

channels

Content production is a commodity application that users sustain through sharing, rather than a valuable service

that is produced externally through dedicated specialized production

channels

technology

netw

a network- service‘ ‘produced outside

o f the network‘ ‘

“Over the top”applications

new productionparadigms

++

technology

surplus enablesdivergence

forsimplicityperformance

and

++

technology

QoS

Network VPNs

IMSsurplus enablesdivergencefor

simplicityperformance

and

++

technology

no need fo rIP- convergence

QoS

Network VPNs

IMSsurplus enablesdivergencefor


and

++

technology

no need fo rIP- convergence

Web 2.0 enabled user generatedcontent

QoS

Network VPNs

IMS

facebookdoppler youtube

wikipediagoogle

flickr

surplus enablesdivergencefor


and

++

technology++

tensions at the lower levels of the technology stack

Users simply want applications to work

Network operators often base their business model on driving complexity into the network

So who really wants a simpleend-to-end IP network?

And who is willing to payFor it?

IPv4

IPv4 NAT landIPv6?

usage

fuelling the usage growth fire

usage = scaling

usage

fuelling the usage growth fire

bandwidthswitching

routingaddressing

usage = scaling

storagedelivering

powerheat dissipationmemory speed

silicon density

storage efficiency

Please send heaps more….

fibre routes

Businessmodelling

is challenging when today’s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about

?

Businessmodelling

and very few of these ideas will be right!

?


Businessmodelling

And some of these ideas appear to be just plain wrongeven now!

?



..today operatorstend to be veryhype driven ..

Businessmodelling

And some of these ideas appear to be just plain wrong!

?




convergence

NGN - . . . triple play

seamless networking

Businessmodelling

?


convergence

NGN - . . .

Everone is talkingabout it

triple play

seamless networking

Businessmodelling

?


convergence

NGN - . . .


Fewhave actualexperience

triple play

seamless networking

Businessmodelling

?


convergence

NGN - . . .


Fewhave actualexperience

.. andthe actualexperiences aremostly failures

triple play

seamless networking

Businessmodelling

?

Businessmodelling

Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity

Low margins

No product differentiation

Low barriers to entry

Deregulation and competitionValued services are overlays to the network

?

What are we learning?

Businessmodelling


Low margins



Deregulation and competition

Traditional revenue streams are vaporizingWired telephony Business data products

Mobile telephonyLocal Accessmonopolies

Valued services are overlays to the network

?



Low margins



Deregulation and competition

Traditional revenue streams are vaporizingWired telephony Business data products

Mobile telephonyLocal Accessmonopolies

Investors are still nervous about telcos

Cost of capital is high

Shareholder returns need to stay highConsumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging

No residual expertise left in-house

Valued services are overlays to the network

Businessmodelling

?


Businessmodelling

?

Informed decision making about network infrastructure investment is the key to the next few years!

Poor network investment choices will lead to business failures

Those who are prepared to questionthe hype and construct their networks in a way that supports user needs will emerge as stronger ISP players

So where arewe heading ?

My personal view sees the following..

T echno logy Business

Usage

?

.. involving users and other stake-holders

with differentrelationships

new roles being defined

?++

‘’

empowered userspenetration

So where arewe heading


So where arewe heading ?

commodity utilitynetwork operation

high capacitypacket pushing

network



user - drive, productionp2p,content, ..

?


User-centric applications,not network-centric services

Value shift upthe protocol stack



network


user - drive, productionp2p,content, ..

involving userspartners

?

Reinvention:

new

and different business models


User-centric applications,not network-centric services

Value shift upthe protocol stack

network



opportunities will arise with

a closing thought …

I’m probably going to be proved wrong as much as I may be right with these thoughts. There is no certain track of progress here.

Each shift of the Internet’s use paradigm through innovation is as much a surprise to the innovator as it is to everyone else.

Which is probably a very good thing!

Thank You!

Geoff [email protected]

Internet Futures. My Aim: share some thoughts about the Internet and its future think about some of the major factors that will shape our future +

Documents

services slide

passive slide

produced slide

future slide

way slide

sharing slide

rich history slide

internet futures slide