International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data

International Workshop on

Population Projectionsusing Census Data

14 – 16 January 2013Beijing, China

Introduction to the workshopObjectives

To provide participants with an opportunity to:1) understand the importance of population projections as a planning tool;

2) learn how to generate population projections at a national level, including the use of available software packages.

Introduction to the workshop

Agenda of the workshopSession 1: IntroductionSession 2. Main Population Projection MethodsSession 3: Establishing the Base PopulationSession 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility

and migrationSession 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality,

fertility and migrationSession 6: Population projections for national

populationsSession 7: Final Matters

Session I:Introduction

• The need of population projections• Population projections for Asia: Background

and challenges• Population projections: the experience of

China

The Need for and the Utility of Population Projections

The Need for and the Utility of Population Projections

• The future is unknown…Why population projection?

• Who needs/uses population projections?

• Producers of population projections

Why population projection?• Planning for people’s needs

• Education• Health system• Social Security• Employment• Infrastructure • Housing

• Understanding the determinants of population change

Future is unknown, but we know some basic demographic trends

• Demographic processes are long-term• Lasting impact of past and current changes• Momentum

• Component of population change Fertility, Mortality and Migration

• Demographic transition as guiding principleCountries move from high fertility and mortality to low

fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries

The Demographic Transition Animated

Transformation of age structures:=> From pyramid to (almost) rectangle.

=> From young populations to older populations

World Population Ageing

Transformation of survival:=> From early deaths to late deaths.

Changing Survival

What Population Projections Can Reveal

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Billi

on

Africa

Latin America and theCaribbeanNorthern America

Europe

Asia and Pacific0.3

0.10.051.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.040.04

Ageing - Growth of Population 65+

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

65+

20-24

China - Burden of Ageing

Ageing – Planning in South Australia

Source: http://www.planning.sa.gov.au/instantatlas/ageingatlas/atlas.html

Urbanization

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

102030405060708090

100

Proportion of people living in urban areas

World Africa AsiaEurope Latin America and the Caribbean Northern AmericaOceania

Estimates Projections

Urban Planning - Water Supply

1975

2025

Source: http://www.grailresearch.com/pdf/ContenPodsPdf/Water-The_India_Story.pdf

Planning for Education

United Kingdom, Population 5 - 14

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Mill

ion

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk

Who needs, who uses population Projections?

• Main users• Central governments (ministries of education,

health, planning, etc.)• Regional and local governments• Private sector (demand, supply)• Academics

Producers of population projections

• Governments: NSO, other national institutions• Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE (UN Regional

Commission)• International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP biennially)• Others: Private Sector, international research institutions

(IIASA)

Population Projections in the Context of Asia

Population Projections in the Context of Asia

• Challenges • Very low fertility level in some countries – where

does the trend go?• Urbanization• Varying availability and quality of data (census, civil

registration and sample survey)

0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia South-Central Asia Western Asia

Fertility Trends in Asia

Replacem

ent level

Rapid Urbanization

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000Urban and rural population, Africa

UrbanRural

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

500,000,000.0

1,000,000,000.0

1,500,000,000.0

2,000,000,000.0

2,500,000,000.0

3,000,000,000.0

3,500,000,000.0Urban and rural population, Asia

UrbanRural

Data Availability – the Good News

• Since the start of the 2010 Round of Censuses in 2005, 197 countries or areas have already carried out a census (out of 238), having enumerated an estimated 89% of the world’s population. (as of 1 January 2013) http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/censusclockmore.htm

• Censuses are regularly held in most countries and areas in Asia. Out of 50 countries or areas, 41 have already conducted a census and 5 are expected to do it in 2014. (as of 1 January)

Data Availability – the Bad News

• Civil registration is still a problem in most developing countries.

• Not just a challenge for statistical data collection, but a challenge to public administrative systems.

• The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since the 1970s.

Coverage of Birth and Death Registration in Asia

Birth registration Death registration

Getting Ready: Software, Textbooks, Data Sources

Software to be used in the workshop• Projection software

• RUPEX v. 1.46• Spectrum 4.5

• Demographic analysis tools• PASEX• MORTPAK v. 4.3

• General software• Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.

Textbooks, Manuals

• Siegel, Swanson (2004)• Preston et al. (2000)• Arriaga (1994 and later)• United Nations Manuals• Software Manuals

Textbooks

US Census Bureau: Arriaga

Data sources

• National data• United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD)• Other

http://data.un.org/

UN Data Sources: UNSD

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm

UN Data sources: UNPD

Additional tools and data• Demographic software

• PADIS http://www.padis-int.org/index.php?c=main&a=view&id=130&lan=en

• Applied Demographic Toolbox• http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~eddieh/toolbox.html

• Demographic data • Human Mortality Database [www.mortality.org]• Human Fertility Database [www.humanfertility.org/]• Human Life-Table Database [www.lifetable.de/]• INDEPTH [www.indepth-network.org/]

Enjoy the workshop !