INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION OUTLOOK 2014 22 JANUARY 2015 Jean-Christophe Dumont Head of International Migration Division Directorate for Employment Labour.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION OUTLOOK 2014

22 JANUARY 2015

Jean-Christophe DumontHead of International Migration DivisionDirectorate for Employment Labour and Social AffairsOECD

Recent trends in migration flows and policies in OECD countries

2

International Migration Outlook 2014

Recent trends in migration flows

to OECD countries and in Europe

4

The migration landscape in the OECD is changingEvolution of international migration flows since 2000 (=100)

Note: Settlement countries include Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States. “Other Europe” includes all European OECD countries apart from Germany, Italy and Spain.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Total

Settlement countries

Germany

Spain - Italy

Other Europe

Czech Republic (2002=100)

Total Settlement countries Germany Spain - Italy Other EuropeCzech Republic (2002=100)

Source: OECD International Migration Database.

On average immigration represents 0.6% of the populationPermanent immigration as a percentage of the population, 2012

Mex

ico

Japa

n

Kore

a

Czech

Rep

ublic

Portu

gal

Unite

d St

ates

Fran

ceIta

ly

Finland

Spain

Unite

d King

dom

Germ

any

Belgium

Nethe

rland

s

OECD a

vera

ge

Ireland

Canad

a

Denm

ark

Austri

a

Swed

en

New Z

ealand

Austra

lia

Norway

Switz

erland

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

%


6

Free mobility is the driver of changes in migration flowsPermanent immigration in OECD countries by category, 2007-2013 (millions)


Work Accompanying family of workers

Family Humanitarian Other Free move-ments

0.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (estimates)

Mili

ons

7

2009 2011 2013 (provisional)

735 832

1 004

Germany driving the increase in free movementMigration within areas of free circulation in OECD countries

Free movement migration flows to OECD countries have increased by a third since 2009…

… and an increasing share of these migrants are choosing Germany

16%

Rest of OECD84%

2009

Germany

24%Rest of OECD76%

2011

Germany

35%Rest of OECD65%

2013

Germany

(provisional

Thousands


Flows from Europe to Germany by region of originNumber of entries by semester (thousands)

Southern Europe Poland Bulgaria + Romania0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan-Jun 2010

Jul-Dec 2010

Jan-Jun 2011

Jul-Dec 2011

Jan-Jun 2012

Jun-Dec 2012

Jan-Jun 2013

Jul-Dec 2013

Source: DESTATIS, Germany.

Flows from Europe to the UK by country of origin Number of entries by fiscal year (thousands) (NINos)

Poland Romania Spain Italy Portugal Bulgaria Greece0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Source: Department for Work and Pensions, UK..

10

Massive drops in labour migration flows to Italy and Spain led to 40% drop for EU-OCDE countries as a whole.

Reduced labour migration flows in crisis countries affected total flows

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

330 668

104 491

Th

ou

san

ds Spain + Italy

Other EU/OCDE + Switzerland + Norway

Permanent labour migration to European OECD countries (thousands)


11

Drops observed in 2011 and 2012 are due to the decline in seasonal workers

Temporary migration has decreased continuously since the financial crisis

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2526 2505

2091 20691958

1873

571 577 520 505 356

203

Total

Seasonal workers

Temporary migrants to OECD countries (thousands)


12

Double numbers between 2000 and 2012. 3.4 million foreign students enrolled in an OECD country in 2012. 75% of all foreign students in the world.

Increasing student mobility

China

Indi

a

Germ

any

Kore

a

Fran

ce

Saud

i Ara

bia

Viet N

am

Mal

aysia

Unite

d St

ates

Italy

Canad

a

Mor

occo

Russia

n Fe

dera

tion

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Japa

n0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2012

2000 2006 2012

1.62.4

3.40.5

0.6

1.1

Rest of the world

OECD

Millions

More than half of international students in OECD countries come from Asia. China alone represents 22%

Source: OECD Education Database.

13

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1

2

3

Thousa

nds

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

464

371 316

286 319

365 363 347

423 464

556

Asylum seeking is reaching new highsNew asylum seekers in OECD countries

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

1

2

3

4

5

6

Thousa

nds

Thousands

Growing share of Syrian citizens3% 15%

2012 2014(1st semester)

Highest level in 10 years reached in 2013

Germany absorbed half of the increase in 2013


The labour market integration of

immigrants in OECD countries

Migrant stocks remain well above pre-crisis levels in all countries

Foreign-born population as a percentage of the total population, 2001 and 2012

Mex

ico

Japan

Poland

Korea

Chile

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Hungary

Finla

nd

Czech

Rep

ublic

Greec

e

Denm

ark

Portu

galIta

ly

Iceland

Nether

lands

Fran

ce

United K

ingdom

OECD a

vera

ge

United S

tate

s

Norway

Germ

any

Spain

Slove

nia

Esto

nia

Belgiu

m

Sweden

Austria

Ireland

Canad

a

New Z

ealand

Israe

l

Austra

lia

Switzer

land

Luxe

mbou

rg0

10

20

30

40

50

2012 2001


• 11.3 million and 28% of all immigrants (15-64) in EU area are tertiary educated (+92% between 2000/01-2010/11)

A. Europe

Source: DIOC 2010/11

Huge increase in the number of highly educated immigrants

• 11.1 million and 31% of all immigrants (15-64) in the US are tertiary educated(+47% between 2000/01-2010/11)

B. United States

Source: DIOC 2010/11

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

United States

Native-born Immigrants

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

-0,4pp

0,4pp

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

European Union


Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

Persisting large unemployment gaps in EuropeUnemployment rates by gender and place of birth - EU, USA and CZE, 2008-2013

5,8pp

4,1pp

Source: EU Labour Force Surveys (European Union) and Current Population Surveys (United States).

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Czech Republic


Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

3,5pp

1,3pp

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

European Union


Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

Persisting large unemployment gaps in EuropeUnemployment rates by gender and place of birth - EU, USA and CZE, 2008-2013

5,8pp

4,1pp

Source: EU Labour Force Surveys.

19

High-educated immigrants have lower employment ratesEmployment rates among the highly educated 15-64 who are not in education, 2013

Note: The data for Canada, New Zealand and Turkey apply to the 25-64 age group and may include people still in education. The data for Australia refer to the 15-64 age group and may include people still in education.

Source: European countries and Turkey: labour force surveys (Eurostat), 2013; Australia: Labour Force Survey 2012; Canada, New Zealand: Labour force surveys 2011-12; Chile: Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (CASEN) 2011; Israel: Labour Force Survey 2011; Mexico: Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE) 2013; United States: Current Population Surveys 2013.

65 70 75 80 85 90 9550

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

79.8

74.0

84.285.1

79.779.0

64.6

76.576.2

73.7

81.7

53.3

80.2

76.3

86.9

68.6

84.1

79.3

82.8

77.576.6

82.6

69.0

82.9

76.777.8

82.680.6

65.3

80.279.4

84.0

77.5

Employment rates of the highly educated native-born

Em

plo

yment

rate

s of

the h

ighly

educa

ted

fore

ign-b

orn

Equal

20

When in employment, they are more often over-qualifiedPercent of employed highly-educated who are in a medium- or low-skilled job, 15-64, 2013

ESP

ITA

GRCES

TIS

R IRL

USANOR IS

LNZL

SWE

AUTGBR

BELDEU FI

NFR

ATU

RDNK

NLD CZEPR

TCHL

HUNCHE

POL

SVKSVN

LUX

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Native-born Foreign-born

Note: Highly-educated corresponds to tertiary education. They are considered over-qualified if the job is classified as ISCO 4 to 9. (ISCO stands for International Standard Classification of Occupations.)

Source: European countries and Turkey: Labour force surveys (Eurostat), 2013; Chile: Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (CASEN) 2011; Israel: Labour Force Survey 2011; New Zealand: Labour Force Survey 2012; United States: Current Population Survey 2013.

21

AUS SVK CZE IRL EST CAN GBR AUT OECD

NLD NOR BEL DEU FIN USA DNK SWE ESP FRA ITA150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

Foreign-born Native-born

Part of the gaps in outcomes are due to lower literacy skills

Mean literacy scores 16- to 64-year-old, 2012

Source: OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), 2012..

Gaps are observed across all education levels

Recent trends in migration policies in OECD countries

23

New approaches to labour migration management

• The recognition of foreign qualifications – both pre- and post-departure - is becoming a key element in labour migration and integration policies (for labour migration: AU, CA; for integration: AT, DE, SE,…)

• Policies making it easier for international students to remain and work after graduation are still on the rise (AT, CH, KR, SE, TR)

• Bilateral co-operation is increasing, particularly with respect to low-skilled migration (KR, IL; for seasonal: AU, CA, NZ)

• Training in the origin countries is also getting new attention (DE)o Expression of Interest systems which first create a pool of immigrants from

which authorities and employers can pick are becoming wide-spread (AU, CA, NZ,…)

o Investor visas are being adjusted to achieve real returns (AU, CA, UK) or offered for real estate/treasury bond investments in countries in crisis (ES, GR, IR, PT)

o Increasing concerns regarding non-discretionary and undocumented migration

Expression of Interest (EoI)

PBS list of characteristcs (e.g age, skills) with different points assignedto each.

Points Based System (PBS)

Self-assess eligibility

Auto-pass if pass-mark and document requirements are met, then application accepted.

Visa outcome

First in, first served -subject to verification of claims for points and processing capacity.

Apply for visa

Expression of Interest (EoI)PBS Plus!

Self-assess eligibility

PBS list of characteristics (e.g age, skills) with different points assignedto each.

Submit expression of interest

If pass-mark is met, then submit expression ofinterest (not application for visa).

Invitation to Apply

Rules engine sorts applicants and invites those with highest points above pass-mark, and quotas if applicable.

Apply for visa

Submit visa application along with documentation for points claimed.

Visa outcome Visa issued subject to verification of claims for points and processing capacity.

Donation /Public debt

€,$

Investment

capital

Business, Employm

ent, innovatio

n

Property

Growing interest/concerns regarding investor programmes

USA, Netherlands, Germany, France, Chile, Canada

Ireland, SpainIreland, UK, Spain, Korea

Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, (Latvia)

Switz

erla

nd

Hunga

ry

Greec

e

Irela

nd

Spai

n

Canad

aUSA NZ

Austra

lia

Germ

any UK

Nethe

rland

s

Fran

ce 100 000

1 000 000

10 000 000Investment threshold

€

Legal and undocumented non-discretionary /unmanaged migration raises concerns (again)

• Intra EU migration– Move in some countries to restrict benefit access for those with no employment history– Concern over “social dumping” in Norway, despite high employment rates– New EU Commissioner asked to review posted workers

• Unaccompanied minors– Record high levels of unaccompanied minors in a number of OECD countries (Mexico,

USA, Sweden, Italy)

• Asylum seekers and refugees– New refugee reception systems being tested by a spike in arrivals (Hungary);

implementation of new asylum processing system complicated by increased pressure (Greece)

• Illegal employment of foreigners– Ongoing trend towards transparency in work rights such as single permit in EU or more

investment in electronic verification systems (USA, AUS)

For further information:

www.oecd.org/migration [email protected]

27/11

Thank you for your attention

http://www.oecd.org/migration

http://www.oecd.org/migration

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION OUTLOOK 2014 22 JANUARY 2015 Jean-Christophe Dumont Head of International Migration Division Directorate for Employment Labour.

Documents

oecd country

migration landscape

oecd education database

europe slide

reduced labour migration

crisis countries

settlement countries

germany thousands source