Institutional Equity Research Escorts · level led by monsoon deficit would have a negative impact on agri output in FY20E and resultantly would impact the tractor volume across regions.

REDUCEEscortsAutomobile | India

Institutional Equity Research

4QFY19 Result Update | May 07, 2019

1

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (7.5)

Bloomberg Ticker ESC IN

Market Cap. (Rs bn) 79.5

Free Float (%) 60

Shares O/S (mn) 122.6

Likely Cyclical Down-turn & Competition to Drag Bottom-line; Maintain REDUCE

Escorts (ESC) has reported below par performance in 4QFY19 due to margin contraction and higher interest outgo. Its revenue, EBIDTA and adjusted PAT grew by 14% YoY (-1.4% QoQ), 9% YoY (-5% QoQ) and 8% YoY (-9% QoQ) to Rs16.3bn, Rs1.9bn and Rs1.2bn vs. our estimate of Rs16.6bn, Rs1.96bn and Rs1.3bn, respectively. Its EBIDTA margin fell by 47bps YoY/48bps QoQ to 11.6% (our estimate of 11.8%). While tractor volume grew by 7% YoY, construction equipment volume fell by 6% YoY. Notably, its railway segment’s revenue rose by a strong 36% YoY. Its RM/sales increased by 88bps YoY (-75bps QoQ) to 68.8%, while other expenses/sales remained flat YoY and increased by 123bps QoQ to 12.3%. Its EBIT margin stood at 13.1% and 15.1% for Agri business and Railway business, respectively.

Following a spectacular performance over the last three years, the tractor industry is expected to take a breather in FY20E and would undergo a cyclical downturn in FY21E. Lower water reservoir level led by monsoon deficit would have a negative impact on agri output in FY20E and resultantly would impact the tractor volume across regions. Though non-agri usage of tractors would drive the volume to some extent, it would not be sufficient to compensate the expected fall in agri-driven tractor demand. Moreover, as we also expect similar downturn for construction equipment segment, we reduce our volume growth estimate for FY20E and FY21E. Further, current higher inventory in industry would increase competitive pressure for all players, which would further compress operating margin, going forward. ESC’s capex plan would also impact cash flow over the next 2 years. In view of expected cyclical down-turn, higher inventory, cash flow squeeze due to high capex impacting return ratio, we lower our target P/E valuation multiple for ESC from 13x to 11.5x 1-Year forward. Moreover, poor visibility on tractor industry’s volume performance over next 2-3 quarters strengthens the case for valuation downgrade. Therefore, we maintain our REDUCE rating on Escorts with a revised Target Price of Rs600 (from Rs760 earlier).

Market Share to Rise; Margin to Remain under Pressure We believe that ESC would continue to gain market share in 1HFY20E supported by its product strength, marketing strategy and favourable geographic-mix. However, post-2019 monsoon, we expect the other Western and Southern geographies (weaker markets of ESC) would bounce back strongly and resulting into challenge for its market share expansion, while M&M would regain lost market shares. We believe that competitive intensity would increase due to higher inventory, which would further increase the pricing pressure. We believe that higher RM cost and wage inflation coupled with limited pricing power would lead to ~80bps contraction in ESC’s margin to 11% over FY19-FY21E.

Outlook & ValuationWe expect ESC’s tractor volume to grow by 5% YoY in FY20E and fall by 7% YoY in FY21E. We reduce our construction equipment volume estimate by 8%/17% for FY20E and FY21E, respectively. We lower our revenue and EBIDTA estimates by 0.4%/2.4% and 5%/6% for FY20E/FY21E, respectively. Accordingly, we cut our EPS estimates by 10%/11% for FY20E/FY21E. In view of likely down-turn for tractor industry, slowdown in construction equipment segment along with poor visibility on tractor volume performance, we reiterate our REDUCE recommendation on ESC with a revised Target Price of Rs600 (from Rs760 earlier), valuing it at 11.5x FY21E EPS.

Research Analyst: Mitul Shah

Contact: 022 3303 4628

Email: [email protected]

Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth

Absolute performance (15.6) (5.2) (34.5)

Relative to Nifty (14.2) (9.1) (41.8)

Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec’18 Mar’19

Promoter 40.1 40.1

Public 59.9 59.9

Key Financials(Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 61,964 68,289 66,456

EBITDA 7,333 7,828 7,278

EBITDA margin (%) 11.8 11.5 11.0

Adj. Net Profit 4,764 4,859 4,473EPS (Rs.) 55.6 56.7 52.2YoY growth (%) 36.4 2.0 (7.9)ROE (%) 17.1 15.0 12.1ROCE (%) 16.5 14.3 12.0

Change of Estimates(% change) FY20E FY21E

Cons Revenue (0) (2)EBITDA (5) (6)EBITDA margin (%) (58) bps (42) bpsNet profit (10) (11)EPS (Rs) (10) (11)

1 Year Stock Price Performance

Note: * CMP as on May 07, 2019

Quarterly Performance YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) Total Revenue 16,317 14,361 13.6 16,551 (1.4)

EBIDTA 1,898 1,737 9.2 2,005 (5.3)

EBIT 1,680 1,549 8.4 1,790 (6.2)

Profit Before Tax 1,778 1,712 3.9 1,991 (10.7)

Adj. PAT 1,214 1,125 7.8 1,328 (8.6)

Adj EPS (Rs) 10.2 9.4 7.8 11.1 (8.6)

EBIDTA Margin (%) 11.6 12.1 (47) bps 12.1 (48) bps

Adj NPM (%) 7.4 7.8 (40) bps 8.0 (59) bps

Source: Company, RSec Research

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EscortsAutomobile | India


2

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Conference Call – Key Takeaways f Lower Volume Growth Guidance for Tractor Industry: The Management attributed

healthy quarterly volume growth to better traction from its key stronger markets of Northern and Central regions. In view of lower water storage level in most of the reservoir, slowdown in few geographies and higher monsoon deficit in Southern and Western regions, the Management expects domestic tractor industry to record a lower growth of 5-8% in FY20E. Moreover, it expects the industry to remain flat or may decline in 1QFY20 as against earlier guidance of 10-15%. ESC aims outperformance in domestic as well as exports markets. We expect tractor industry to grow by 0-5% in FY20 and decline by 7% in FY21E, assuming normal monsoon. In case of below normal monsoon/delay in rainfall, the industry would record decline in FY20E, after undergoing 3 years of healthy growth.

f Market Share Gain across Geographies: ESC’s market share improved by 110bps YoY to 11.8% in FY19, which the Management attributed to products and strong marketing strategy to connect with the dealers and customers. It aims to increase its market share by 100bps annually over the next 2-3 years.

f Price Hike & Inventory: ESC hiked prices by 2.25% in 2QFY19 and by another 2% in 3QFY19. However, there was no price hike in 4QFY19 except for one product in agri segment. In construction equipment segment, it hiked prices by 4-5% in 4QFY19 to pass on the higher input cost. Its dealer inventory currently stands at 4-5 week compared to ~3-3.5 week in 3QFY19.

f Inferior Product-mix Drags Margin: Its operating margin in the tractor segment impacted to some extent due to inferior product-mix in terms of Powertrac contribution and higher sales of <40HP segment (low-margin products).

f Better Traction in Construction Equipment & Railway Biz: Its EBIT margin improved on YoY basis in both segments. Moreover, the Company looks forward to mid-teen YoY revenue growth in both the segments, going forward. Its order book for Railway business stood at >Rs4.9bn as of FY19-end (to be executed over the next 13-15 months).

f Debt, Capex & Investment: Its debt increased from Rs2.4bn to Rs2.7bn as of 4QFY19-end due to higher working capital requirement. It plans to spend Rs3-4bn towards capex in FY20 and indicated an investment of Rs1bn for FY20 in its JVs with Kubota and Tadano.

f Dividend: The Company has declared a dividend of Rs2.5/share for FY19.

Key Risks f Revival in tractor industry in FY20 and FY21.

f Major success of new launches in overseas markets.

f Sharp decline in commodity prices.



3

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Exhibit 1: Result Summary

YE Mar (Rs. mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) Tractor Volume 25,136 23,568 6.7 25,743 (2.4)

Const Eqp Vol 1,455 1,541 (5.6) 1,413 3.0

Total Revenue 16,317 14,361 13.6 16,551 (1.4)

Less:

Net Raw Material consumed 11,227 9,755 15.1 11,512 (2.5)

Other Expenses 2,012 1,776 13.3 1,837 9.5

Personnel 1,180 1,093 8.0 1,196 (1.3)

Total Expenditure 14,419 12,624 14.2 14,546 (0.9)

EBIDTA 1,898 1,737 9.2 2,005 (5.3)

Less: Depreciation 218 188 15.8 215 1.4

EBIT 1,680 1,549 8.4 1,790 (6.2)

Less: Net Interest 75 63 18.9 43 74.6

Add: Other income 173 226 (23.1) 244 (29.0)

Profit Before Extra-ordinary items and Tax 1,778 1,712 3.9 1,991 (10.7)

Less: Total Tax 565 587 (3.7) 699 (19.2)

Less: Extraordinary Expense (net) 0 0 NM -109 (100.0)

Profit After Tax 1,214 1,125 7.8 1,401 (13.4)

Adj. PAT 1,214 1,125 7.8 1,328 (8.6)

Reported EPS (Rs.) 10.17 9.43 7.8 11.75 (13.4)

Adj. EPS (Rs.) 10.17 9.43 7.8 11.14 (8.6)

Margin Analysis (%) Change in bps

Change in bps

EBIDTA Margin 11.6 12.1 (47) 12.1 (48)

Adj. NPM 7.4 7.8 (40) 8.0 (59)

Effective Tax Rate 31.8 34.3 (250) 35.1 (335)

Cost Analysis

RM/Net Sales 68.8 67.9 88 69.6 -75

Adv.& Sales Promotion Expenses./Net Sales 12.3 12.4 (4) 11.1 123

Personnel/Net Sales 7.2 7.6 (37) 7.2 1

Source: Company, RSec Research; Note: NM - Not Meaningful

Exhibit 2: Revised vs. Old Estimates

FY20E FY21E

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) Old New % change Old New % change

Tractor Vol 1,00,824 1,01,233 0.4 93,766 94,146 0.4

Construction Eqp Vol 6,620 6,098 (7.9) 7,084 5,793 (18.2)

Net revenues 68,596 68,289 (0.4) 68,121 66,456 (2.4)

EBIDTA 8,264 7,828 (5.3) 7,745 7,278 (6.0)

EBIDTA margin (%) 12.0 11.5 (50) bps 11.4 11.0 (42) bps

Adj. Net Profit 5,396 4,859 (9.9) 5,009 4,473 (10.7)

EPS (Rs.) 63.0 56.7 (9.9) 58.5 52.2 (10.7)

Source: RSec Research



4

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Exhibit 3: Segmental Performance

Y/E Mar (Rs. mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%)Revenue

Agri machinery products 12,309 10,941 12.5 12,925 (4.8)

Railway equipment 1,035 760 36.1 966 7.2

Construction equipment 2,930 2,660 10.2 2,660 10.2

Overall 16,274 14,361 13.3 16,551 (1.7)

Segment Result (EBIT):

Agri machinery products 1,618 1,657 (2.3) 1,846 (12.3)

Railway equipment 156 121 29.7 192 (18.8)

Construction equipment 208 136 52.8 93 122.3

Overall 1,853 1,775 4.4 2,143 (13.5)

EBIT Margins (%) "Change in bps"

"Change in bps"

Agri machinery 13.1 15.1 (200) 14.3 (113)

Railway equipment 15.1 15.9 (75) 19.9 (483)

Construction equipment 7.1 5.1 198 3.5 357

Overall 11.4 12.4 (97) 12.9 (156)




5

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Exhibit 4: Segmental Revenue Break-up (%)


Exhibit 5: Segmental EBIT Margin Trend (%)


Exhibit 6: Revenue and Margin Performance


Agri machinery

75.6

Railway equipment

6.4

Construction equipment

18.0

4QFY19

Agri machinery

76.2

Railway equipment

5.3

Construction equipment

18.5

4QFY18

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

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1,000

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15,000

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2QFY

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3QFY

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2QFY

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3QFY

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1QFY

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2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

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1QFY

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2QFY

19

3QFY

19

4QFY

19

Total Revenue Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Rs mn (LHS) EBIDTA Margin (RHS)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

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16

2QFY

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3QFY

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1QFY

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2QFY

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Agri machinery Construction equipment Railway Overall



6

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Profit & Loss Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net revenue 49,951 61,964 68,289 66,456

Expenditure 44,379 54,631 60,461 59,178

Raw Materials 33,578 42,397 46,778 45,655

Employee Expenses 4,311 4,717 5,283 5,548

Other expenditure 6,490 7,516 8,400 7,975

EBITDA 5,572 7,333 7,828 7,278

Depreciation and amortization expense 725 854 1,001 1,119

EBIT 4,847 6,479 6,827 6,160

Non-operating income 594 809 676 771

Interest including finance charges 286 185 250 255

Adjusted pre-tax profit 5,156 7,103 7,252 6,676

Less: Extraordinary Exp 68 (109) - -

Reported pre-tax profit 5,088 7,212 7,252 6,676

Less: taxes 1,641 2,375 2,393 2,203

Reported net profit 3,447 4,837 4,859 4,473

Adjusted PAT 3,493 4,764 4,859 4,473

Adj. EPS (Rs), based on fully diluted shares 40.8 55.6 56.7 52.2

Diluted Outstanding Shares excl treasury (mn) 86 86 86 86

Note: EPS and Outstanding shares is adjusted for Treasury shares

Balance Sheet

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Equity capital 1,226 1,226 1,226 1,226

Reserves and surplus 24,255 28,833 33,514 37,765

Total equity 25,481 30,059 34,740 38,991

Deferred tax liability (net) 197 197 197 197

Total borrowings 137 2,870 1,870 870

Current liabilities 16,880 16,681 19,083 19,207

Total liabilities 42,695 49,806 55,890 59,264

Cash and cash equivalents 3,119 2,299 4,326 2,689

Inventory 5,411 8,219 6,957 6,810

Trade receivables 6,000 9,320 8,232 8,011

Other current assets 3,003 5,160 4,567 4,567

Total current assets 17,533 24,998 24,083 22,076

Gross block 24,069 25,460 28,660 31,810

Less: depreciation and amortization 8,491 9,345 10,346 11,465

Add: capital work-in-process 641 750 1,050 900

Total fixed assets 16,219 16,865 19,364 21,245

Investments 8,943 7,943 12,443 15,943

Total assets 42,695 49,806 55,890 59,264



7

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Cash Flow Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Operating cashflow

Pre-tax income 5,088 7,212 7,252 6,676

Add: depreciation and amortization 725 854 1,001 1,119

Add: interest expense (net) 214 185 250 255

Less: other adjustments (250) - - -

Less: taxes paid (1,020) (2,375) (2,393) (2,203)

Add: working capital changes (36) (8,485) 5,345 493

Total operating cashflow 4,722 (2,610) 11,455 6,340

Free cash flow 3,717 (4,001) 8,255 3,190

Investing cashflow

Capital expenditure (1,006) (1,391) (3,200) (3,150)

Investments (3,024) 1,000 (4,500) (3,500)

Others 246 (109) (300) 150

Total investing cashflow (3,784) (500) (8,000) (6,500)

Financing cashflow

Share issuances 2 - - -

Loans (2,131) 2,733 (1,000) (1,000)

Dividend (161) (259) (178) (222)

Interest Payment (209) (185) (250) (255)

Less: Others 2,503 - - -

Total financing cashflow 4 2,289 (1,428) (1,477)

Net change in cash 942 (821) 2,027 (1,637)

Opening cash 545 3,119 2,298 4,326

Closing cash 1,487 2,298 4,326 2,688



8

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Key Ratios

Y/E Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Growth Ratios (%)

Net revenue 22.0 24.0 10.2 (2.7)

EBITDA 72.1 31.6 6.8 (7.0)

Adjusted net profit 76.0 36.4 2.0 (7.9)

Other Ratios (%)

Effective tax rate 32 33 33 33

EBITDA margin 11.2 11.8 11.5 11.0

Adjusted net income margin 7.0 7.7 7.1 6.7

Debt/equity 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

ROaCE 15.5 16.5 14.3 12.0

ROaE 15.3 17.1 15.0 12.1

Total asset turnover ratio (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1

Inventory days 45 55 42 42

Debtor days 44 55 44 44

Creditor days 101 81 85 85

Per share numbers (Rs)

Diluted earnings 40.8 55.6 56.7 52.2

Free cash 43.4 (46.7) 96.3 37.2

Book value 297.4 350.8 405.4 455.0

Valuations (x)

P/E 15.9 11.7 11.4 12.4

EV/EBITDA 9.4 7.7 6.8 7.4

P/B 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4

Note: EPS and Outstanding shares is adjusted for Treasury shares



9

Target Price: Rs600

CMP* (Rs) 649



REDUCE

Rating GuidesRating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months

BUY >10%

HOLD -5% to 10%

REDUCE >-5%

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Rating History

Date Reco CMP TP

05-Apr-19 REDUCE 769 760

27-Mar-19 REDUCE 819 760

28-Jan-19 BUY 675 875

08-Jan-19 BUY 731 875

12-Dec-18 BUY 642 1,015

01-Nov-18 BUY 639 1,015

14-Sept-18 BUY 780 1,015

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Institutional Equity Research Escorts · level led by monsoon deficit would have a negative impact on agri output in FY20E and resultantly would impact the tractor volume across regions.

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