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INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit September 26, 2016 Stephanie Rosoff, Data Manager, NYU Furman Center Measuring Gentrification in New York City
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INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

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Page 1: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE:

Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit September 26, 2016 Stephanie Rosoff, Data Manager, NYU Furman Center

Measuring Gentrification in New York City

Page 2: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Rents are rising in New York City and incomes have not kept pace.

Sources: American Community Survey, NYU Furman Center

Index of Real Median Gross Rent and Real Median Renter Household Income (Index=100 in 2005), New York City

+18%

+7%

@FurmanCenterNYU

Median Gross Rent

80

90

100

110

120

130

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Median Renter Household Income

Page 3: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

A falling share of recently available units were affordable to low- and moderate- income households.

@FurmanCenterNYU

20%

64%

83%

13%

43%

76%

50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI

2000 2010-2014

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, New York City

Page 4: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

A falling share of recently available units were affordable to low- and moderate- income households.

4 | @FurmanCenterNYU | #NYChousing

20%

64%

83%

13%

43%

76%

50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI

2000 2010-2014

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, New York City

Page 5: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods saw the largest decline in the % of units affordable to low- and moderate- income households.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, Gentrifying Neighborhoods

@FurmanCenterNYU

33%

77%

94%

20%

48%

83%

50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI

2000 2010-2014

Page 6: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods saw the largest decline in the % of units affordable to low- and moderate- income households.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

Recently Available Rental Units Affordable to Appropriately-Sized Households, Gentrifying Neighborhoods

@FurmanCenterNYU

33%

77%

94%

20%

48%

83%

50% AMI 80% AMI 120% AMI

2000 2010-2014

Page 7: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City

Source: NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 8: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Source: NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City

Bottom 40% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income

Page 9: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Source: NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City

Bottom 40% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income AND Rent increase higher than median neighborhood between 1990 and 2014

Bottom 40% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income

Page 10: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Source: NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Defining Gentrifying Neighborhoods in New York City

Gentrifying: Lower-income and high rent growth

Non-gentrifying: Lower-income and modest rent growth

Higher-income: Top 60% of neighborhoods by 1990 average income

Page 11: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Rents in gentrifying neighborhoods grew by an average of 34% since 1990.

1990 to 2000

2000 to 2014

1990 to 2014

Citywide 2% 19% 21%

Gentrifying 3% 30% 34%

Non-Gentrifying -3% 16% 13%

Higher-Income 2% 16% 18%

Average Percent Change in Mean Household Rent

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990, 2000), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 12: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Some gentrifying neighborhoods saw even more dramatic increases in rent.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

79%

53% 50% 44% 40% 37% 36%

Williamsburg/Greenpoint

Central Harlem Lower East Side/Chinatown

Bushwick East Harlem MorningsideHeights/HamiltonHeights

BedfordStuyvesant

@FurmanCenterNYU

Percent Change in Average Rent, 1990 to 2014

Page 13: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Some gentrifying neighborhoods saw even more dramatic increases in rent.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

79%

53% 50% 44% 40% 37% 36%

Williamsburg/Greenpoint

Central Harlem Lower East Side/Chinatown

Bushwick East Harlem MorningsideHeights/HamiltonHeights

BedfordStuyvesant

@FurmanCenterNYU

Percent Change in Average Rent, 1990 to 2014

Page 14: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

GENTRIFYING NEIGHBORHOODS:

Changes in Demographics

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 15: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Between 1990 and 2014, average household income increased only in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

2%

14%

-8%

-1%

Citywide Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income

Percent Change in Average Household Income, 1990 to 2010-2014

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 16: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

The share of adults with a college degree in gentrifying neighborhoods was largely due to recent movers.

Educational Attainment Among Recent Movers Aged 25+, 2010-2014

Sources: American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

42%

19%

53%

58% 81%

47%

Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income

College Degree No College Degree

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 17: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods had a higher share of young-adult recent movers.

Age Composition of Recent Movers Age 20+, 2010-2014

Sources: American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

28%

61% 81% 19%

47%

53%

11%

61% 48% 55%

28% 34%

31%

11% 18% 15%

Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income

20-34 35-54 55 and older

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 18: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods saw the largest increase in the share of single and unrelated-adult households.

34%

30%

37%

43%

33% 37%

Gentrifying Non-Gentrifying Higher-Income

1990 2010 - 2014

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

Share Non-Family Households

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 19: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods saw growth in white population share despite citywide decline.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center

Share Non-Hispanic White

@FurmanCenterNYU

43%

19%

33%

21%

1990 2010

Citywide Gentrifying Neighborhoods

Page 20: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods saw larger decline in black population share than the city as a whole.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

26%

38%

24%

31%

1990 2010

Share Non-Hispanic Black

Citywide Gentrifying Neighborhoods

Page 21: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

GENTRIFYING NEIGHBORHOODS:

Examining Gentrification at the Census Tract Level

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 22: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Percent change in rent varied widely across census tracts.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

Decrease

0 to 25% Increase

25% to 50% Increase

>50% Increase

Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-14

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 23: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Source: NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Defining Gentrifying Census Tracts in New York City

Gentrifying: Lower-income and high rent growth (N=508)

Non-gentrifying: Lower-income and modest rent growth (N=312)

Higher-income: Top 60% of census tracts by 1990 average income (N=1,319)

Page 24: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Many gentrifying census tracts experienced extremely large increases in rent between 1990 and 2010-2014.

Distribution of Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-2014*

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center *Not shown: 28 census tracts had a percent change in mean household rent >100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

# C

ensu

s Tr

acts

% Change in Mean Household Rent, 1990 to 2010-2014

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 25: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Non-gentrifying census tracts experienced rent growth too.

Distribution of Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Non-Gentrifying Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-2014

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

# C

ensu

s Tr

acts

% Change in Mean Household Rent, 1990 to 2010-2014

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 26: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Percent change in rent varied widely across higher- income census tracts.

Distribution of Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Higher-Income Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-2014*

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center *Not shown: 8 census tracts had a percent change in mean household rent >100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

# C

ensu

s Tr

acts

% Change in Mean Household Rent, 1990 to 2010-2014

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 27: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

GENTRIFYING NEIGHBORHOODS:

Predictors of Gentrification

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 28: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying tracts nearest Manhattan saw the largest increases in rent.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database (1990), American Community Survey (2010-2014), NYU Furman Center

0 to 25% Increase

25% to 50% Increase

>50% Increase

Percent Change in Mean Household Rent by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1990 to 2010-14

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 29: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying census tracts were the tracts with the largest population losses in the 1970s and 1980s.

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center

Population Change by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1970 to 1980

Population Change by Gentrifying Census Tract, 1980 to 1990

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 30: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods have not regained the population lost in the 1970s.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Citywide +4%

Gentrifying Neighborhoods -16%

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center

Total Population (Index=100 in 1970)

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 31: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Gentrifying neighborhoods have not gained back the housing units lost in the 1970s.

Citywide +16%

Gentrifying Neighborhoods -2%

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, NYU Furman Center

Total Housing Units (Index=100 in 1970)

@FurmanCenterNYU

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Page 32: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Of the initially low-income tracts, gentrifying tracts were: • More likely to experience population loss

between 1970 and 1990 • Closer to core Manhattan (and public

transportation) and to higher-income tracts

• Somewhat more likely to have had lower average household incomes in 1990

• Somewhat more likely to have had higher poverty rates in 1990

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 33: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Many of New York City’s public housing developments are in or near gentrifying census tracts.

Sources: NYC Housing Authority, NYU Furman Center

Gentrifying Census Tracts

NYC Housing Authority Development

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 34: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Public housing and privately-owned subsidized housing make up a significant share of housing units in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Sources: New York City Department of Finance Final Tax Roll File, New York City Housing Authority, NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Public Housing Privately-Owned Subsidized Buildings

Gentrifying 12% 26% - 28%

Non-Gentrifying 6% 24% - 27%

Higher-Income 2% 8% - 9%

Share of housing units by neighborhood type (sub-borough definition), 2012

Page 35: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

Public housing and privately-owned subsidized housing make up a significant share of housing units in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Public Housing Privately-Owned Subsidized Buildings

Gentrifying 12% 26% - 28%

Non-Gentrifying 6% 24% - 27%

Higher-Income 2% 8% - 9%

Share of housing units by neighborhood type (sub-borough definition), 2012

Sources: New York City Department of Finance Final Tax Roll File, New York City Housing Authority, NYU Furman Center

@FurmanCenterNYU

Page 36: INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Measuring ... · INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE: Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit . September 26, 2016

INDICATORS OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE:

Presentation to the Community Indicators Consortium 2016 Impact Summit September 26, 2016 Stephanie Rosoff, Data Manager, NYU Furman Center

Measuring Gentrification in New York City

@FurmanCenterNYU