Indian Facts On Climate Change Consolidated

1

www.climateprojectindia.orgwww.climateprojectindia.org

A planet in peril….Our energy hungry approach to development is causing the planet to warm and risking the health of our future

Historically, countries have developed by converting natural resources into energy and products

Some of these natural resources, known as fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), stored away millions of years of buried carbon in the ground.

When burned for energy (such as coal power plants or petrol), the carbon stored in these fuels combines with oxygen and is released into the air as carbon dioxide (CO2).

CO2 is a greenhouse gas which means it traps the sun’s heat in the atmosphere hence any increase leads to higher surface temperatures on Earth.

Since the industrial revolution, we have released CO2 on a massive scale causing a steep and measurable increase of CO2 in the air.

Initially we did not think about the consequences of changing the CO2 balance but we now see it has led to a warming planet- a process which is accelerating

Aside from hotter temperatures, we face rising sea levels, greater floods and droughts, loss of agriculture, loss of animal species, greater diseases and increased storm activity.

Scientists expect average temperatures to rise anywhere between 3-8 degrees by the end of this century if we do not significantly reduce our carbon emissions. We have about 10 years at best to make the changes and avoid dangerous temperature rise.

An Indian Perspective

India is going through a period of unprecedented economic growth

This has the capacity to deliver much needed improvements in health, education and lifestyles that 100s of millions of people in India lack

However, like the developed world, this economic growth is fueled by energy which presently is largely supplied by fossil fuels.

Hence, India’s current pathway of development would lead it to becoming a major contributor to the already dangerous levels of carbon dioxide emissions

Currently, India is a very low emitter of CO2, but this is as much to do with poverty as it is to do with sustainable practices.

Knowing what we know now about the harmful effects of Greenhouse gases, we need to find alternative means of energy and development

But these alternatives, such as renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal etc) are often expensive or still require further development

Only through international co-operation and a strong domestic resolve, can India deliver on development today and a secure future for the planet and our children

Contents

• Indian contribution to Climate Change

• Indian Impacts

• Indian Opportunities

The average Indian produces very little carbon dioxide compared with International levels

Total Greenhouse Emissions (per person)

But given our size, we are an important player in the fight against Global warming

Relative contribution of fossil fuels to global warming (2007)

Source: Hansen et al. (2007). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7: 2287-2312

India already represents 5% of Greenhouse Gas emissions from Fossil Fuels

The Indian contribution to Global Warming has many facets

Poverty keeps India’s carbon dioxide emissions lowOver 400m Indians lack access to electricity

UNDP Human Development Indicators, 2008

But a growing rich class of Indians are increasing emissions dramaticallyTop 1% of Indians (those earning over $700 US per month) estimated to emit around to 5

tonnes CO2 per annum, close to global average

Greenpeace: ‘hiding behind the poor’, 2007

And our burning of biofuels such as wood for cooking adds new problemsIndia and China are the primary contributors of ‘black carbon’ (soot), which has a significant

and yet to be quantified impact on Climate ChangeJames Hansen et al

Some Indian practices helping keep our emissions low: But can we maintain them?

• Vegetarian diets use much less energy– But increased incomes leading to

shift in higher meat diets

• High rates of recycling– But has this just been a function of a

low labour cost economy?

Where Indian emissions come from?

Source: Indian UN submission, 2004

Green House Gas Indian Emissions Measured in CO2 Equivalent

Industrial processes(18 %)

EnergyIndustry(28 %)

Waste Disposal & Treatment (3.8%)

Land-use change & Bio-mass burning (7.2%)

Residential & Commercial (7.9%)

Fossil fuel Processing & Retrieval (2.1%)

Agriculture

(26.5%)

Transportation (6.5%)

Coal is our dominant source of energy, and the most harmful in terms of producing CO2

Source: CEA and MNRE (2008)

Indian Source of Power Generation

India will need to add a lot of additional power capacity to meet needs

Source: CEA (2008)

GigaWatts of Installed Power Capacity

Majority of increase is

planned to come from coal

India’s 10th 5 year plan

•27 GW of electric power

•25% to come from renewables

India’s 11th 5 year plan

•80 GW of electric power

•14% to come from renewables

By 2030 India aims to possess 800 GW of

power, that is 6 times what we have today

Source: Graham-Harrison 2008

Today India produces over 1.6 Gt of carbon emissions per year

Business as usual, means that India will produce 5.5 Gt of carbon emission per year by 2030-31. (Close to where China is today)

If we aim green the Planning Commission believes we can reach 3.9 Gt per year

Contents

• Indian contribution to Climate Change

• Indian Impacts

• Indian Opportunities

Agriculture: core to employment & security

Agriculture is the largest economic sector and plays a significant role in the overall socio-economic development of India.

“Around 46 % of the India’s geographical area is used for Agricultural Activities.”

Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and fishing accounted for 16.6% of the GDP in 2007 and

employed 60% of the country's population.

Climatic changes will reduce agriculture yields significantly

India may lose up to 17% of its farming income from increases in temperature

Mendolsohn, Yale University Study, 2008

"Wheat yields would fall by 5-10% with every increase of 1 degree celsius,"

Dr R.K. Pachauri, 2008

India already suffers from water scarcityIndia already suffers from water scarcity

Climate Change Is Going To Make The Climate Change Is Going To Make The Water Problems a Lot Worse!Water Problems a Lot Worse!

Red = decrease in precipitation

Source: UN World Water Development Report 2, CERE

Changes in precipitation will increase extreme weather events such as droughts and floods.

Blue = increase in precipitationGreen = No

change

Grey =No Data

Expected changes in precipitation

Warmer temperatures mean more water evaporates from the soil increasing the amount of droughts.

Farmer suicides can be directly linked to the impact that Climate Change is already having

DroughtsDroughts

FloodingFlooding

With more water evaporating, we get higher rates of flooding as well.

In India thousands of people are killed & millions affected by floods due to heavy rains in the monsoon season every year.

1/2 million

2003

20 million

2005

30 million

2004

6 million

2006

?2008

14 million

2007

Warmer temperatures mean more storms Warmer temperatures mean more storms

Arabian SeaGONU, June 2007 – Category 5

Bay of BengalSIDR, November 2007 – Category 5

Bay of BengalNARGIS, April 2008 – Category 4

Warmer temperatures cause stronger storms…

CATEGORY 5 November 15, 2007

Super Cyclone Sidr

US $ 4.4 billion in damages

4.1 Lakh destruction of farm land

12 lakh tonnes of rice paddy devastated- this accounts for 40% of the country’s output

Led to reduced yields in other paddy farms.

8.9 Million environmental refugees left homeless

Photo: Nikhil Devasar/Sanctuary Photolibrary

The Himalayan glaciers are very important to us because…

They are the source of 7 major rivers

They provide water to 40% of the world’s population

Our glaciers are melting away

1936 2006Pindari Glacier

Photo: International Snow Leopard Trust

And the Himalayan snow leopards

Begin to lose their homes…

Photo: Sanctuary

Are losing their habitat

Effect of fragmentation, forest degradation and climate change on mean species abundance of India.

20302008

Source: GIST

Animals and fauna across India predicted to disappear rapidly

RED means 0% species

present

Contents

• Indian contribution to Climate Change

• Indian Impacts

• Indian Opportunities

Harness Renewables: 4th in Wind Capacity Today

India’s solar energy potential

Source: NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (2008)Kilowatt-hours per square meter per day

Harness Renewables: Significant Solar Resource

Urbanization in India:a chance to incorporate latest thinking

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2000

Census Years

Urb

aniz

atio

n (

%)

Source: Unicef

% of Indian population living in urban areas

India is one of the least urbanized countries in the world

Private vehicles in India account for 67.6% of motorized vehicles in India.

They carry 37% of the commuters and take up 67.1% of the road width.

Buses are 24.4% of the vehicles, 61% of the commuters and 38% of the road width.

CO2 emissions from cars has increased by 73% and from two wheelers by 61% in Delhi alone

Chance to build proper Chance to build proper public transport in our public transport in our new cities from the startnew cities from the start

Source: Down To Earth Magazine, 2008 (CSE Publication)

Opportunity To Develop More Efficiently?

India

USAGreece

ItalyJapan Norway Iceland

South Africa

UK

Electricity consumption(annual kw hrs/person, 2004)

Human Development Index (2007)

Get here by 2030?

Government of India has approved 213 new coal plants in the next 8

years. Planning Commission

But these haven’t been built yet. Can we find alternatives?

An Opportunity To Change

36

Examples of no regrets – only gains – not so complex solutions

Increase Women’s Education

Protect and PlantMore Trees

Improve Public Transport

Reduce/ImproveBio Fuel Cooking

Tax Power andWater Consumption

Progressively

Subsidize CleanerTechnologies Not

Polluting Ones

Electrify non-powered villages with renewables

37

The Power To Change

"Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction." “There is a sufficiency in the world for man's need but not for man's greed”