Impact of Scottish Independence on its Economy, Businesses, Trade and Supply Chain

Impact of Scottish Independence on its Economy, Businesses, Trade and Supply

Chain

September 2014

18 September 2014—a date that will decide the fate of 5.5 million Scottish citizens. More than one-third of Scotland's four million voters believe that the country should become independent, ending the 305-year-old political union with its larger neighbour. A referendum on Scottish independence will be held on 18 September 2014, where voters will be asked one question—”Should Scotland be an independent country?”––and a “yes/no” answer would indicate consensus.

In this report, The Smart Cube analyses the potential impact of Scottish Independence on industries, trade and supply chains, along with a brief analysis on Devo Plus—the most talked-about alternative to independence.

Objective

Introduction and Background

Possible Scenarios

Impact on Currency, Economy and Banking

Impact on Oil and Gas Industry

Impact on Businesses

Impact on Commodities and Services

Impact on Trade and Supply Chain

Devo Plus Alternative

Key Questions to Consider

Bibliography

Contents

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As Scottish National Party attempts for independence, decision makers need to prepare companies for possible scenarios

Source: Scotland Referendum Official Website; ‘Scottish Independence’, Politics.co.uk (May 2011); ‘Scottish independence: the essential guide’, The Guardian (April 2013); BetterTogether Website

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Background and Timeline of Issue

The Scottish National Party’s (SNP) 2007 Scottish parliament election manifesto pledged to hold an independence referendum by 2010

Post winning—albeit as a minority government—SNP-controlled government published a white paper that outlined options for Scotland’s future, including independence

Subsequently, the Referendum (Scotland) Bill 2010 was proposed in the parliament; however, it did not get the requisite approval and hence was withdrawn

The SNP repeated its commitment to hold a referendum when it published its 2011 election manifesto

Alex Salmond-led SNP got overall majority this time—thereby gaining a mandate to hold an independence referendum

In January 2012, the UK government offered to legislate and empower the Scottish parliament to hold a referendum

Negotiations continued between the two governments till October 2012, when the Edinburgh Agreement was signed

The Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Act 2013 was passed by the Scottish parliament on 27 June 2013 and received royal assent on 7 August 2013

On 15 November 2013, the Scottish government published a white paper outlining the case and roadmap for independence

May 2014 marked the start of the regulated referendum period, with spending limits on registered campaigners

2007–2010

2011–2012

2013–2014

SNP’s first (failed) attempt for independence

SNP’s second (successful) attempt for independence Paving the road to independence??

18 September 2014

“On Thursday, 18 September 2014 we will hold Scotland's referendum - a historic day when the people will decide Scotland's future. A Yes vote means a future where we can be absolutely certain, 100% certain, that the people of Scotland will get the government they vote for.” – Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland (March 2013)

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Yes47%

Yes42%

No53%

No48%

Possibility of “Yes for independence” cannot be ruled out as the undecided proportion of the population can significantly impact outcome of vote

Possible Scenario

Source: ‘Scottish independence: the essential guide’, The Guardian (April 2013); BetterTogether Website; TSC Analysis

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

Arguments FOR Arguments AGAINST

Status Quo

UK government is in charge of most taxation, welfare and economy

Devo Plus

Devolved government structure, granting more administrative powers to the

Scottish government

Independence

Scotland to get full control over all taxes, laws and North Sea oil, while the UK

retaining sterling and the Queen

Scotland will continue to benefit from the union between the two countries

Breaking up the union may destabilise the economy and result in job loss in Scotland

The UK fails to recognise Scotland's unique needs, values and aspirations

Scotland's interests are always secondary to England's

A strong Scottish parliament within the UK will give Scotland the best of both worlds—real decision-making power, as well as a key role in the strong and secure UK

No possibility for key decisions to be made by governments without support/consent of the Scottish electorate

Tax and social security rates will be set in line with the requirements of Scottish people

Economic policies that disproportionately benefit London and the South East of England will be replaced

Empowering Scotland in taxation and welfare can heavily impact all parts of the UK

This will require a reform of the UK parliament and undermine internal unity

Scotland may face higher financial risks and lose the UK’s security

This will lead to a lot of uncertainty on many key issues—future currency and Scotland’s EU membership

Should Scotland be an Independent Country? – Opinion Poll

(As of 2 September 2014)

Undecided population can turn the game around

Source: YouGov’s Poll on Scottish Independence

Undecided10%

(Excluding “Undecided”)

Scotland’s Future – Possible Scenarios

Increasing number of Scottish Independence supporters (47% on 2 September 2014 from just 39% on 7 August 2014) indicate that the race is too close to pre-empt the verdict

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If a majority of the people vote “Yes for Independence”, what will be the impact on following?

Currency, Economy and Banking

Impact on Oil and Gas Industry

Impact on Business

Impact on Trade and Supply Chain

Read more!

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Independence expected to have adverse impact on Scottish economy due to large debt and expenditure; banking institutions likely to shift base to UK

A “YES” vote for Scottish independence could see a mass exodus of financial and banking institutions out of the country Banking institutions have expressed concerns over the secession and impact it will have on their operations

― For example, Lloyd’s Bank opted to domicile its subsidiary TSB in London instead of Scotland due to concerns related to the demand for an independent Scotland; both Clydesdale Bank and RBS have highlighted the significant additional costs and risks involved in operating in Scotland post independence

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimates that in case of independence, about one-third of the financial sector jobs will be relocated to the UK to keep them close to customers

Impact on Economy

Source: ‘Scotland faces £143bn debt after independence’, The Telegraph (April 2014); ‘What about the UK's national debt?’, Yes Scotland; TSC Analysis

Debt Burden

Scottish independence is expected to have a very strong and adverse impact on the country’s economy

The country will inherit about £143 billion of the UK public sector debt― £23 billion, which will be equivalent to more than a third of the country’s entire spending during 2012–2013,

will need to be repaid immediately

Credit Rating Failure to repay debts could see its credit rating fall much below the Aa1 rating (Moody’s) held by the UK;

this will in turn push up interest rates in the country― Rating agencies, such as Moody’s, S&P and Citibank, have warned of downgrading its credit rating

Public Spending Fiscal deficit is expected to grow as the country’s public spending per person is more than that of the UK

― The government will need to cut spend or increase taxes to cover this gap

High

Impact on Economy

High

Medium

Impact on Banking and Financial Institutions

“It is highly unlikely that there will be a banking union if Scotland is independent. Without that, most of the Scottish financial services economy will migrate to England, where their customers are.” – Douglas McWilliams, Founder, CEBR (April 2014)

Silver LiningIndependence will allow the government to restructure its reform and tax system, which has traditionally been skewed towards London’s requirements

IMPACT ON CURRENCY, ECONOMY AND BANKING

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The final option for the country is printing its own currency

A fixed currency (pegged to the pound or euro) will provide the flexibility to adjust its currency in case of crisis― However, as the currency

value will be dependent on fluctuations in the base currency, it will lose control over interest rates

A floating currency will essentially be disassociated from any existing currency― It will provide Scotland

with full control over interest rates

― However, as this system requires a strong economy, it will be open to heavy volatility pressures

Scotland can look to join the eurozone and adopt the euro― In case of a formal

currency union, Scotland will receive backing of the European Central Bank, but will also have to adhere to strict EU standards

― In case of an informal currency union, the country will have more relaxed regulations, but will lose out on financial backing in case of crisis

However, the currency faces heavy roadblocks in attaining membership to the eurozone due to Scotland’s high annual deficit and national debt, both of which exceed the EU requirements

Independent Scotland’s three currency options fraught with risks and roadblocks

The Currency Conundrum

There is still no formal decision on the currency to be used by independent Scotland

The three options it has are the pound, the euro and printing its own currency― Each option comes with its own set of merits,

demerits and question marks

However, this decision will be taken post referendum and will be based on discussions between both governments

In the meantime, the pound’s value has depreciated on the back of speculations on the negative economic impacts of Scottish Independence― Its value fell from a high of $1.7158 on July 6 2014

to $1.6134 on September 4 2014

The prime option being floated by the SNP is the adoption of the pound and the formation of a currency union with the UK― However, there has been

strong opposition to this idea from politicians in the UK

The second option is to continue with an informal currency union (dubbed “Sterlingisation”), under which the country will continue to use the pound without formal permission from the UK― However, under this

option, the currency will have no link to the Central Bank of England, which may act as a financial safety net in case of crisis

British Pound(Plan A)

Euro(Plan B)

New Currency System(Plan C)

Source: ‘What currency should an independent Scotland adopt?’, The Week (February 2014); ‘Scotland faces £143bn debt after independence’, The Telegraph (April 2014); TSC Analysis

“With options A and B ruled out, it is about time they came up with a Plan C and fast.” – Danny Alexander,

Chief Secretary, UK Treasury (August 5, 2014)

Plan A Provides the best way forward for businesses; however, it leaves the pound open to severe

currency shocks in case of a Scottish financial crisis

Plan BWill enable long-term stability of business

environment due to increased association with the EU; however, Scotland does not meet the criteria

Plan CIs likely to translate into uncertainties for businesses

due to currency conversion and pegging issues

IMPACT ON CURRENCY, ECONOMY AND BANKING

“The vote has moved from being something three or four weeks ago that we didn't need to focus on, to

something we need to think about [in terms of] how it affects our portfolios.” – Paul Lambert, Head of

Currencies, Insight Investment (September 8, 2014)

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With uncertainty prevailing over new regulatory policies and changes in tax regime, fresh investment and oil export to UK are likely to be most impacted post independence

Source: ‘Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin’, Scottish Government (November 2013); TSC Analysis

IMPACT ON OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

71.1 65.954.2 45.7 40.2

3.53.0

2.83.0

3.0

Rest of UK Scotland

74.668.9

57.048.7

43.2

Source: ‘Oil and Gas Model’, Scottish National Accounts Project (May 2014)

UK Crude Oil Production1 – by Volume(mtoe2, 2009–2013)

Note: 1) Crude Oil includes oil and natural gas liquids2) Million tonne of oil equivalent3) The degree of impact indicates the impact on sectors in case Scotland gets independent

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

23.5 23.5 20.912.1 8.7

40.9 35.827.5

27.726.2

Rest of World Rest of UK

64.459.3

48.439.8

34.9

Source: ‘Oil and Gas Model’, Scottish National Accounts Project (May 2014)

Scotland Crude Oil Export1 – by Region(mtoe2, 2009–2013)

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the UK is the largest producer of crude oil in the EU, primarily due to large oil reserves in the North Sea (in Scotland)

During 2009–2013, Scottish crude oil and natural gas (dry) production declined 43.7% to 40.2 mtoe and 52.2% to 16 mtoe respectively, primarily due to maturing of the existing oil fields and increasing of taxes on the oil & gas sector by the government in 2011

However, oil production is forecast to increase 14% between 2013 and 2018, owing to expected new investments in the exploration and operation of new fields and field restarts, coupled with changes in the tax regime by the new government

Impact on Oil & Gas Production

In 2013, the total capital investment in the North Sea was £14.4 billion, with Scotland alone accounting for ~83.0% of the total investment

However, with increasing exploration costs and uncertainty over regulatory policies—such as changes in taxation regime—by the new Scottish government, oil exploration companies are adopting a wait-and-watch strategy― In November 2013, Chevron, a US-based oil exploration and marketing company,

raised concerns over its £6 billion investment on the Rosebank (a field in West of Shetland) oil project; this was due to doubts about the project’s economic value proposition

― In November 2013, Shell and Statoil postponed the development of the £4.3billion Bressay heavy oil field in the North Sea owing to high operating costs

Impact on Investments

Medium

High

The UK, the US, Angola, Norway and Canada are the top five Scottish crude oil exporting destinations

However, the transfer of oil production and export authority to the Scottish government will highly impact UK’s revenue; in future, the UK may have to purchase oil and gas at prices set by the new government

Impact on Oil Exports

Degree of Impact on Oil & Gas Production3

Degree of Impact on Investment3

Degree of Impact on Oil Exports3

MediumHigh

UK Rest of World

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Independence is likely to have negative impact on most industries, except airlines

Source: The Scottish Government; Scotland’s Referendum; BBC; Telegraphy; The Huffington Post; The Guardian

Note: 1) The size of the bubble indicates the relative contribution of the industry to Scotland’s GDP in 2013 2) All currency conversion is at EUR 1 = GBP 0.79788 as of 4 September 20143) A fund provided by the European Union to the fishing industry and the coastal communities of the UK4) rUK stands for rest of the UK

Key Industries Likely to Be Impacted by Scottish Independence1 (September 2014)

Dependence on rUK4Low High

Impa

ct o

n th

e In

dust

ry in

Sco

tland

Low

Hig

h Banking & Financial Services

Fishing

Spirits & Wine

Shipbuilding

Airline

Construction

Electricity

Independent Scotland is likely to face higher interest rates and taxes, resulting in greater financial instability

Financial services companies are likely to shift headquarters from Scotland

Scotland’s shipbuilding industry is highly dependent on UK defence contracts and it may lose access to these contracts on independence

Costs of renewable energy projects in Scotland are shared between rUK and Scotland; however, independent Scotland is likely to bear full burden of these costs, thereby pushing up prices

Post independence, energy bills across Scotland are estimated to rise £189 per household annually

The proposal for decline in air passenger duty (APD) post independence by the Scottish government is likely to have a positive impact on the airline industry

Post independence, funding (~₤44 million2) received by Scotland’s fishing industry under the European fisheries fund3 will cease to exist

However, the Scottish government believes that independence will give Scotland more bargaining power against rUK― In 2012, Scotland accounted for

87% (by value) of the total UK fish landings

The Scottish government proposed a beneficial tax regime—to be implemented following a “yes” vote—for SMEs in the construction industry

However, industry experts believe that a “yes” vote is likely to result in economic uncertainty and hamper growth and investment in the industry

Conflicts over currency and new tax arrangements after Scottish independence could damage one of Scotland's largest industries

Manufacturers believe that it is important for companies and the whisky industry to remain within the EU and maintain free trade agreements

However, limited dependence on the UK may reduce the severity of impact

Overall Positive Impact

Overall Negative Impact

IMPACT ON BUSINESSES

Source: TSC Analysis

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Businesses buying Scottish oil, whiskey, salmon and financial services need to reassess their procurement strategies as the country’s independence is likely to impact exports

15.3%12.9

%

9.2%Others

62.6%

2009 2010 2011 2012

2,395 2,675 3,670 4,1351,875 2,295

2,1702,600

International Rest of UK

Total Exports of Coke, Refined Petroleum and Chemical Products2

(£ million, 2009–2012)

The revenue generated by the increasing exports of coke, refined petroleum and chemical products has largely been attributed to the companies outside Scotland

2009 2010 2011 2012

1,320 1,425 1,535 1,415

9,145 9,825 9,980 9,815

International Rest of UK

Total Exports of Financial and Insurance Activities2

(£ million, 2009–2012)

Scotland is a large provider of financial services—both domestic and international

However, companies owned and registered in Scotland account for only one-third of the revenue generated by Scottish financial services and banking sector; a majority of the revenue is generated by businesses owned in England and abroad

Further, according to a report by National Institute of Social and Economic Research—a London-based independent research organization—Scottish banks and financial institutions will flee Scotland in case it votes for independence on 18 September 2014― In the event of independence, Scottish banks would

be cut-off from the Bank of England, the central bank that provides support against collapse; without a central backing, bank regulators would require all banks to register in the UK and not Scotland

― This will have a huge impact on the contribution of financial services (9% as of 2013) to the GDP of the country

Scotland Total Exports – by Product Classifications(% share, 2012)1

Source: ‘Global Connections Survey’, Scottish Government (January 2014)

100% = £73.5 billion

Source: ‘New doubt cast over Alex Salmond's claims of Scottish wealth’, The Guardian (May 2014); The Wall Street Journal; The Telegraph

Note: 1) The figures include exports to Rest of UK2) The latest data available was for 2012

IMPACT ON COMMODITIES AND SERVICES

2009 2010 2011 2012

3,665 3,975 4,210 4,665

3,070 3,690 3,630 4,080

International Rest of UK

Total Exports of Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco Products2

(£ million, 2009–2012) Scotch whiskey is the country’s most valuable export in the food and beverages category; however, more than 80% of its production is owned by non-Scottish firms

Similarly, over 80% of the salmon production—Scotland’s most important food product in terms of retail as well as exports—is owned by companies based outside of Scotland

Source: Scottish Government Website Source: Scottish Government Website

Source: Scottish Government Website

An independent Scottish government is likely to have significant impact on the country’s exports—especially products and services such as whiskey, salmon, oil and financial services—owing to a stricter tax regime, as it will look to increase GDP through taxes on exports

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Rest of UK64.7%

EU 2715.9%

North America5.3%

Other Europe3.4%

Others10.7%

While independence will make trading for Scottish businesses difficult, UK may face a decline in the value of pound sterling

Impact on Trade

Source: ‘Three EU-Related Impacts of Scotland Leaving UK’, Europe Economics (January 2014); ‘What independence would mean for Scottish trade’, Financial Times (September 2013); TSC Analysis

IMPACT ON TRADE AND SUPPLY CHAIN

Scotland’s trade with rest of the UK dwarfs its trade with other countries

Apart from increasing transaction costs (due to different currencies and tax systems), the independence may have a negative impact on the overall Scottish economy

― According to the UK government, the border effect of Scottish independence is likely to reduce real income in the Scottish economy by 4% after 30 years

― But, this figure assumes that Scotland does not strengthen its international trade links; if it did, experts believe that Scottish GDP may increase by up to 3.5%, even with the weakened Scotland–UK trade links

However, if Scotland adopts euro, transaction costs with rest of the UK will likely increase, while those with the eurozone will decline; the net cost impact is likely to be ₤75 million1

Dependence of rest of the UK on Scotland is less, compared with that of Scotland on rest of the UK

According to Morgan Stanely, Scottish independence may have an immediate impact leading to depreciation of sterling by up to 10%

― But, the pressure on sterling will ease if Scotland launches its own currency, thereby slowing down the flight of capital

Negative impact on UK’s balance of payment (BOP) will be partly offset by an increase in exports, which are not currently measured as a part of UK’s BOP, to Scotland

Experts argue that independence will create a border effect with rest of the UK; this will damage existing trade relationships with other nations

Impact on Scotland

Impact on Rest of UK

EU 2740.0%

North America17.0%

Asia12.0%

Scotland11.0%

Others20.0%

Rest of UK Exports – by Destination(2012)

Scottish Exports – by Destination(2012)

100% = ₤73.5 billion

Source: Scottish Government Website

Note: 1) All currency conversion is at EUR 1 = GBP 0.79788 as of 4 September 2014

Source: HM Revenue & Customs 100% = ₤665.3 billion

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Impact on Commodity Prices

Supply chain managers will be required to revaluate contracts to avoid complications

Impact on Supply Chain

Source: TSC Analysis

IMPACT ON TRADE AND SUPPLY CHAIN

Prior to the creation of the two new republics in January 1993, the Czech Republic accounted for about half of the Slovakian exports and imports, while Slovakia accounted for about one-third of Czech exports

Despite overall growth in the two economies post the dissolution, the value of both exports and imports—amongst the two independent nations—was less in 2000 as compared to 1993

The motor industry’s example shows the influence of a border on sophisticated supply chains

The motor industry in both countries saw substantial restructuring and modernising, driven largely by Volkswagen

The share of EU-sourced parts and components in Slovakia rose from 36% in 1995 to 92% in 2000, with the share of Czech-sourced supplies falling from 51% to 4%

This led researchers to conclude that the existence of a border has an impact on the choices made between domestic and foreign suppliers by businesses with extensive supply chains for sophisticated components

The existence of internal borders—even under customs union arrangements—has affected outsourcing strategies pursued by the major

automotive foreign investor in both countries—Volkswagen Group; otherwise, it is difficult to

explain why so many local Czech firms have become an integral part of Volkswagen’s supply chain and few, if any, among Slovak firms provide inputs to

Volkswagen in the Czech Republic

CASE EXAMPLECzech Republic – Slovakia Split and

Supply Chain

Uncertainty about EU membership and currency will significantly influence the supply chains and competitiveness of Scottish industries, particularly those with important business links with rest of the UK

If Scotland does not get EU membership, the EU Procurement Directives will be null and void in the country; this would completely alter the procurement scenario as the rules, which had governed organizations and their suppliers will vanish abruptly, creating a disarray among businesses

The Scottish government could request the people to adhere to them, but if they do not belong to the EU, this will not have any legal ground

To counter this uncertainty, the Scottish government has proposed the New Procurement Reform (Scotland) Act 2014

― The new legislation is intended to enable SMEs, supported businesses and the third sector to access contract opportunities and encourage efficient procurement practices

Independence can lead to a rise in procurement costs due to different tax regimes and currencies and additional administrative requirements

Further, based on past observations, if euro becomes the official currency in Scotland, prices will go up; this happened to almost every European country that adopted the euro

― In January 2014, immediately after euro-adoption, Latvian prices rose for the first time in six months; prices in the services sector saw the steepest rise since 2009—at 2.3% Y-o-Y

So, England-based companies having contracts for supply with Scottish companies will have to ensure that the contracts are negotiated in sterling and they should look to evaluate their contract models

Based on past experiences, the border effect can have a significant impact on supply chains

Case Example of Border Split – Impact of Czech Republic and Slovakia Split on Supply Chain of the Motor Industry

Relationship with EU

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Will Devo Plus result in a “win-win situation” ?

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Devo Plus is a proposed alternative, which will grant more tax and expenditure control to Scotland; however, it depends on legislations post 2015 UK elections

Devo Plus is a proposed alternative to full independence― It aims to provide devolved governance to the Scottish government; this will provide increased autonomy while continuing to be a part of the

UK

However, this option is not on vote for the referendum; its implementation will be decided by the new government post the 2015 general elections

The Devo Plus Alternative

Devo Plus Benefits

Increased Autonomy Continued Currency Union

Devo Plus will grant the Scottish government more autonomy to raise taxes and public expenditure― Under this system, the Scottish

government will have full control over incomes and corporation taxes

― This will significantly boost its decisions regarding public expenditure

This should also provide the government more leeway in creating policies to better support Scottish businesses and industries

Devo Plus will ensure a continued currency union with the UK

This will allow businesses to continue operations without being affected by currency risks

Financial and banking institutions based in Scotland will benefit from continued access to the large UK customer base

Businesses in Scotland will benefit from premium credit ratings provided to the UK, which allows them access to lucrative borrowing rates

"All the mainstream pro-UK parties believe in further devolution; so, while we would want to build consensus for a set of measures and

legislation, there is no reason why these changes should not happen early in the next parliament.“

– David Cameron, Prime Minister, UK (June 2014)

“Westminster is very difficult. There is another year before the election. Three parties are bidding up what they may do. None of

them may be in power as a single entity, but perhaps as a coalition. Uncertainty about the future means people must think very carefully

when they are voting ‘NO’.”

– Henry McLeish, Former Labour First Minister (August 2014)

Uncertainty Regarding Implementation There is wide speculation regarding implementation of this

plan as it is dependent on future legislations of the UK government

This is leading to an air of mistrust as Scottish citizens are unsure of whether Devo Plus will be implemented in case they vote “NO” in the referendum

Source: ‘Scottish independence: McLeish No vote warning’, The Scotsman (August 2014); ‘Cameron: we've got a consensus on more devo powers if Scotland votes No’, Herald Scotland (June 2014); TSC Analysis

DEVO PLUS ALTERNATIVE

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Your Checklist

Here are a list of queries that senior executives and decision makers across the supply chain should reflect on regarding the impact of Scottish independence on your business:

Here are a list of queries that senior executives and decision makers across the supply chain should reflect on regarding the impact of Scottish independence on your business:

Are you aware of key categories in your organization’s supply chain that can get impacted on account of the Scottish independence?

Have you reviewed the supply chain risk in procuring goods from one particular source?

Can you minimise supply shocks by identifying alternate suppliers?

Have you evaluated how your sourcing strategies will be affected in the near and long term?

Have you modeled/assessed what impact will this ongoing apprehension of Scottish independence have on key input commodities for your business?

Will Scottish independence have any impact on your organization’s margins?

Are your trade customers speaking about current situation of Scotland’s independence?

What can companies do to shield themselves from future shifts in policies?

How is your industry expected to be impacted? And what response can you expect from your competitors?

Are you keeping a track of the various developments taking place?

Will Wales follow suit?

Are you aware of key categories in your organization’s supply chain that can get impacted on account of the Scottish independence?

Have you reviewed the supply chain risk in procuring goods from one particular source?

Can you minimise supply shocks by identifying alternate suppliers?

Have you evaluated how your sourcing strategies will be affected in the near and long term?

Have you modeled/assessed what impact will this ongoing apprehension of Scottish independence have on key input commodities for your business?

Will Scottish independence have any impact on your organization’s margins?

Are your trade customers speaking about current situation of Scotland’s independence?

What can companies do to shield themselves from future shifts in policies?

How is your industry expected to be impacted? And what response can you expect from your competitors?

Are you keeping a track of the various developments taking place?

Will Wales follow suit?

Contact our procurement & strategy team to take this forward and know about our various offerings in this space!Contact our procurement & strategy team to take this forward and know about our various offerings in this space!

KEY QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

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Bibliography

‘Scottish Independence: Banks warned on currency union’, BBC (August 2014) ‘No pound, no euro: With a vote on Scottish independence imminent, why Scotland needs a plan C’, This Is Money (August 2014) ‘Scottish Independence: North Sea Oil Investments Hit Ahead of Referendum’, International Business Times (July 2014) ‘Deloitte: North Sea oil firms adopt 'wait and see' policy’, BBC News (July 2014) ‘United Kingdom’, US Energy Information Administration (July 2014) ‘Countdown to Scottish independence vote: Will it cause a rout to your investments or leave them unscathed’, This is Money (July 2014) ‘The North Sea’s decline is a problem for the whole of the UK, not just Scotland’, Financial Times (May 2014) ‘Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin’, Scottish Government (May 2014) ‘Survey of International Activity in the Oil & Gas Sector 2012/13’, Scottish Development International (April 2014) ‘Independent Scotland would face immediate £23bn debt’, The Guardian (April 2014) ‘Independent Scotland's finances at risk from oil slump, say economists’, The Guardian (March 2014) ‘The Scottish Government’s plans for independence’, CBI Research (March 2014) ‘Scottish Independence Threatens Trade, says Rennie’, The Scotsman (February 2014) ‘North Sea oil and gas at risk, Aberdeen survey says’, The Guardian (November 2013) ‘Chevron raises doubts over £6bn North Sea oil project’, Financial Times (November 2013) ‘Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin’, Scottish Government (March 2013)

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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