8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
1/14
Gustav Ando
Director
Healthcare and Pharma
Key Industry Drivers for 2014
IHS Healthcare and Pharma
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
2/14
1. The foundations for economic
recovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
1. The foundations for economic recovery
continue to be in place The global economy is expected to see
a recovery in 2014 and 2015. However,
there is a marked shift in dynamics over
where the growth is expected. Average
growth in emerging markets has fallensteadily to 4.7% in 2013, while the
outlook for advanced markets is stronger
than it has been for many years.
Add to this the scarring experience several pharmaceutical companies had in Chinaamid a
clampdown on marketing practicesand we see several significant players deciding to reset
their agenda in emerging markets.
While much attention is focused on the detrimental impact of healthcare reform in general,
the impact will be felt hardest in key European markets especially Germany, France, UK,
Southern Europe and the Nordics. Interestingly, the global pharmaceutical industry continues
to be heavy dependant and focused on these regions.
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
3/14
1. The foundations for economic
recovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
2. The United States first full year of ACA
The focus has been on the stuttering implementation of Medicaid
expansion amid continued political resistance. Midterm elections will
be critical in deciding how fast or slow implementation will happen.
The bulk of the patent cliff is over, meaning that the market will return to
being driven significant increases in pharmaceutical prices
Health spend will grew 5% in 2013 and is expecting to rise above 6% in
2014 our assumptions are based on a more gradualistic impact of
Medicaid expansion than for example CMS (which subsequently revisedits estimations).
Pharmaceutical prices declined dramatically in September 2013 and
there is more pushback from payers on pricing.
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
4/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
3. Europe/Eurozone instability will continue to suppress
public health expenditure
Greece and Italy will experience negative and lower growth
(respectively), with Italy implementing its spending review. Spain is also
declining significantly due to co-payments and procurement.
Health spend will grow significantly in France with newly implementedprice cuts, prescription controls, and a focus on home care. The
transition to ITR is having a significant impact.
Germany has abandoned the retroactive benefit assessments, but looks
to prolong price freezes, and there may be other non-AMNOG-related
reforms.
UKs VBP pushed towards the end of the year
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
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1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
4. Secondary emerging markets
are expanding healthcare insurance
The Philippines continues to be a fast-growing market, and a law
introducing universal health was enacted by President Aquino in June
2013.
Indonesia's universal healthcare coverage was launched on 1 January2014 with a goal of 100% coverage in five years for the world's fourth
most populous country. The universal healthcare system, Jaminan
Kesehatan Nasional (JKN), will transform Indonesia from a primarily self-
paid market to an insurance-driven healthcare market.
Markets such as Nigeria, UAE and Qatar are also expanding their
insurance coverage.
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
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1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
5. Reimbursement continues to offer a mixed picture
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
7/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
2014 will be a comparatively quiet year among patent expirations
following the turbulent 2011-2013 period.
The patents to expire include drugs such as Temodar, Evista, Avelox,
Nasonex, and Nexium.
In the biosimilars space, there are more potential negative drivers with
challenges to Herceptin, Lantus and Rituxan in Europe.
6. Patent expirations continue to be a significant driver,
but it is a comparatively quiet year
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
8/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
7. IRP baskets continue to evolve
Portugal has already changed its basket and there could be changes in
Turkey.
Increasing fears that prices in New Zealand and South Korea could trickle
into much more important markets.
Price harmonisation efforts in GCC (collective procurement starting 2014)
and Baltics.
Colombia is launching its new reference pricing system which will target
patented and generic drugs, whilst Mexico is looking at internationalreference pricing in 2014 during next round of negotiations.
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
9/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
8. Drug shortages will continue, but clampdowns
on parallel exports are seen in many countries
Drug shortages will increase due to parallel exportwith several
countries (Greece, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania, among others)
banning exports of certain drugs.
Italy and Bulgaria are also looking to curb parallel exports. Poland hashighlighted the issue as an area of growing concern.
Whilst parallel trade continues to be a significant negative driver,
governments are beginning to realize the negative consequences on a
stable supply of essential pharmaceuticals
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
10/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
9. Price cuts in Japan but some incentives forinnovation
The government has concluded that the average price cut rate in April
2014 will be 5.7%excluding the impact of a sales tax hike.
However, Japan remains one of the few major markets where there are
constructive discussions around increasing the reward for innovation.
The country is continuing its pilot programme of exempting innovative
products which fulfil certain criteria from the price cuts although it
backed down from its December 2013 proposal to turn the pilot
programme into a permanent fixture on the market.
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
11/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
10. New technology developments
At the tail-end of 2013, the FDA approved Gileads Sovaldi (sofosbuvir),
the first approval of an all-oral, interferon-free combination therapy in
hepatitis C. Whilst J&Js NS3/4A protease inhibitor Olysio was approved
the month before, Sovaldis approval very much sets the tone for thenew drug catalysts in 2014, and it is the biggest new drug launch that the
industry has seen for some time.
2014 is generally felt to be a transformational year for immunotherapies
and drugs targeting PD-1. Two therapies are in the final stages of
development here: Bristol-Myers Squibbs (BMS, US) nivolumab and
Merck & Cos MK-3475.
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
12/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
Recent Multi-Client Studies
Flexible Pricing Strategies: Maximizing Value across the Pharmaceutical Product Lifecycle
Tiered Pricing Strategies in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry: Matching Prices with Local MarketConditions
Pharmaco-economic Evaluation and ITR Reforms in France: Optimising Market Access Strategies
Drug Price Erosion:Safeguarding Pharmaceutical Assets Against Value Attrition
International Reference Pricing:A Strategic Guidebook to the New Global Pharmaceutical Pricing Paradigm
Biosimilars and Non-Innovator Biologics in Emerging Markets:Payer, Regulator, and Pharma Strategies
European Pharmacovigilance Reform:Implications for Market Access Strategies
Payer-Industry Partnerships in the Emerging Markets:Best Practices for Successful Market Access of New
Pharmaceuticals
The New REAlity of Relative Effectiveness:An International Comparison of Evolving Requirements
Optimising Medical Device & Diagnostic Launches:A Country-Specific Analysis
Payer-Industry Partnerships:Best Practices for Successful Market Access of New Pharmaceuticals
8/10/2019 Ihs Global Pharma
13/14
1. The foundations for economicrecovery continue to be in place
IHS Healthcare and Pharma Key Industry Drivers for 2014 I Copyright 2014 IHS
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Gustav Ando
Director
Healthcare and Pharma
Contact us
IHS Healthcare and Pharma