Top Banner
ICT, THE FUTURE OF JOBS, AND THE HUMAN PROJECT Luciano Floridi Professor of Philosophy and Ethics of Information Director of Research OII, University of Oxford
45

ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Jul 12, 2015

Download

Markus Laine
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

ICT, THE FUTURE OF JOBS, AND THE HUMAN PROJECTLuciano FloridiProfessor of Philosophy and Ethics of InformationDirector of ResearchOII, University of Oxford

Page 2: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 3: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 4: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

PROCESSING POWER – MOORE’S LAW1m fold in 40 years

Page 5: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

$ 100 trillionsQatar (57/190) GDP 98 trillions$ 100 trillionsQatar (57/190) GDP 98 trillions

COSTiPad2: in 2010, 1600 MIPS = $ 100

Page 6: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Three limits to the speed of growth of data: - thermodynamics- intelligence- memory.

Page 7: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Acquisition/Storage

Usability

Security/Safety

Analytics

Accessibility

Law/Ethics

Costs

Page 8: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 9: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

No ICTs

Individual and social well-beingrelated to ICT

Individual and social well-beingdependent on ICT

Those who live by the digit, die by the digit.Those who live by the digit, die by the digit.

Page 10: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 11: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Enveloping the world (data-fication) without fully realising it.

In robotics, an envelope (also known as reach envelop) is the three-dimensional space that defines the boundaries that the robot can reach.

In recent years, the world has been adapting to smart technologies.

Page 12: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Dishwasher vs. Humanoid RobotDishwasher vs. Humanoid Robot

Page 13: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Past: enveloping a stand-alone phenomenon (e.g. factory).

Past: enveloping a stand-alone phenomenon (e.g. factory).

Future: enveloping the environment as an ICT-friendly infosphere. Future: enveloping the environment as an ICT-friendly infosphere.

Page 14: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Inside the computerInside the computer

Back inside

Outside the computer

Page 15: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

22.5

20

17.5

15

12.5

10

7.5

5

2.5

0

Ca. 21% EU pop. used a laptop to access internet, wireless, away from home/work.Ca. 21% EU pop. used a laptop to access internet, wireless, away from home/work.

Page 16: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 17: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Robust, cumulative, progressively refining.Robust, cumulative, progressively refining.

Page 18: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Memory outperforms intelligence even if syntactic engines need semantic ones.

Memory outperforms intelligence even if syntactic engines need semantic ones.

Page 19: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

We are not immobile, at the centre of the universe (Copernicus).

We are not unnaturally detached and diverse from the rest of the animal world (Darwin).

We are not Cartesian subjects entirely transparent to ourselves (Freud).

We are not disconnected agents, but informational organisms (inforgs), sharing with biological and engineered agents an environment which is basically informational (infosphere).(Turing).

Page 20: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 21: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Information society: intellectual, intangible assets (knowledge-based economy), information-intensive services (business and property services, finance and insurance), public sectors (especially education, public administration and health care).

Page 22: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute
Page 23: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Total world wealth = 2011, $ 231 trillion, $33.000 pp.Advertisement = 2011, $ 498bn (ca. half a trillion)Military = 2010, $ 1.74 trillionEntertainment and media = 2010, ca. $ 2 trillionHealth = 2010, $ 6.5 trillionICTs = 2010 $ 3 trillionFinland GDP = 2012, 212bn

Sources: The Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2011; Nielsen Global AdView Pulse Q4 2011; Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2007-2011; IDC, Worldwide IT Spending Patterns: The Worldwide Black Book; World Bank.

Page 24: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

We can no longer unplug our world from ICTs without turning it off.We can no longer unplug our world from ICTs without turning it off.

Page 25: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

We often work as interfaces between technologies.We often work as interfaces between technologies.

Page 26: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

ICT may easily and rightly make us redundant.However, this may mean more self-service.ICT may easily and rightly make us redundant.However, this may mean more self-service.

Page 27: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Distrib. of BLS 2010 occupation employment over the prob. of computerisation. Area = US emp.

Source: C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 2013.

Distrib. of BLS 2010 occupation employment over the prob. of computerisation. Area = US emp.

Source: C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 2013.

Page 28: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Comp. threatens one third of Finnish JobsSource: M. Pajarinen, P. Rouvinen, ETLA, Brief, January 2014.

Comp. threatens one third of Finnish JobsSource: M. Pajarinen, P. Rouvinen, ETLA, Brief, January 2014.

Page 29: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 30: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… is progressing, […] Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set… 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.

Bill Gates, Talk at the American Enterprise Institute, March 2014.

Page 31: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

The increase of technical efficiency has been taking place faster than we can deal with the problem of labour absorption […] We are being afflicted with a new disease of which some readers may not yet have heard the name, but of which they will hear a great deal in the years to come - namely, technological unemployment. This means unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.

John Maynard Keynes, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren 1930.

Page 32: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Personal consumption expenditure: package toursShaded areas indicate US recessionsSource: US Dep. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013.

Personal consumption expenditure: package toursShaded areas indicate US recessionsSource: US Dep. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013.

Page 33: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Strategies for the future

Education

R&D

Inequality

Leisure

Infraethics

Page 34: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute
Page 35: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

From medical discovery to medical practiceSource: The Fourth Paradigm, 2013-2014

From medical discovery to medical practiceSource: The Fourth Paradigm, 2013-2014

Page 36: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Lost in Translation?A + B = main mechanism for economic growth.C = not the problem, more R&D does not translate into growth without B.Problem = underused (low) intellectual capital, why?

Economicgrowth

Economicgrowth

Marketing

business

Marketing

business

R&Dinnovation

R&Dinnovation

A B

C

Page 37: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

A Vicious Circle

Time

Untranslated

Page 38: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

“Volkswagen with €9.5bn invested in

R&D leads the world R&D ranking.

In second place is Samsung

Electronics (€8.3bn).”

“EU-based companies outperformed

the R&D growth of their US

counterparts in Industrial Engineering

(12.3% vs. 9.4%) and Aerospace &

Defence (9.5% vs. -1.3%).”

Page 39: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Internationalisation motivates not only R&D but also Translation, cf. Germany’s automobile industry. Internationalisation not a panacea but a good example of “right environment”.What can be done (e.g. for SME)?

Page 40: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

The State as an environmental force for innovation:1) The State as a agent: investments with high capital intensity, high risks, longer time.2) The State an ecosystem: provide the human (education) physical (infrastructure), and social (law, finance) conditions that make R&D more attractive and translatable.

Page 41: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

The design of a R&D-friendly ecosystem can be successful only if it is shaped by all stakeholders, especially the R&D and business agents that are expected to flourish in such environment.

Page 42: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Page 43: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Being able to see what the future will be like and what adaptive demands smart technologies will place on humanity is vital in order to devise solutions that can lower their costs and increase their benefits.

Being able to see what the future will be like and what adaptive demands smart technologies will place on humanity is vital in order to devise solutions that can lower their costs and increase their benefits.

Page 44: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

Human intelligent design should play a major role in shaping the future of our interactions with forthcoming smart artefacts. After all, it is a sign of intelligence to make stupidity work for you.

Human intelligent design should play a major role in shaping the future of our interactions with forthcoming smart artefacts. After all, it is a sign of intelligence to make stupidity work for you.

Page 45: ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet Institute

ICT, THE FUTURE OF JOBS, AND THE HUMAN PROJECTLuciano FloridiProfessor of Philosophy and Ethics of InformationDirector of ResearchOII, University of Oxford