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Human life expectancy

Jan 14, 2015

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Human life expectancy

  • 1. Human Life Expectancy:Human Life Expectancy: What Can We Expect?What Can We Expect? Brought to you by

2. Purpose Of Research & QuestionPurpose Of Research & Question What are the realities ofWhat are the realities of human life expectancy?human life expectancy? Why does aging occurWhy does aging occur and can science extendand can science extend the life expectancy?the life expectancy? How will new researchHow will new research concerning cures forconcerning cures for diseases effect human lifediseases effect human life expectancy over the nextexpectancy over the next 100 years?100 years? Brought to you by 3. HypothesisHypothesis I predict that human life expectancy willI predict that human life expectancy will not continue to grow over the next 100not continue to grow over the next 100 years; the tendencies of death rates andyears; the tendencies of death rates and oncoming illness will outmatch ouroncoming illness will outmatch our technological and medical abilities andtechnological and medical abilities and disable us from fighting newly formeddisable us from fighting newly formed diseases in amounts high enough to reachdiseases in amounts high enough to reach a higher life expectancya higher life expectancy Brought to you by 4. Human Life ExpectancyHuman Life Expectancy It would take an 85 percent decline in all- cause mortality from the 1985 level to yield an eventual life expectancy of 100 years. Human life expectancy in the United States is unlikely to exceed 90 years in the 21st century. (Olshansky, et. al., 2005) Brought to you by 5. What Determines Human LifeWhat Determines Human Life ExpectancyExpectancy Medical abilities/inabilitiesMedical abilities/inabilities Social abilities/inabilities of countriesSocial abilities/inabilities of countries Economic abilities/inabilitiesEconomic abilities/inabilities Disease PrevalenceDisease Prevalence Political abilities/inabilitiesPolitical abilities/inabilities Lack of resourcesLack of resources Socioeconomic ReasonsSocioeconomic Reasons Brought to you by 6. The Human LifespanThe Human Lifespan On average, since the 1900s, the human lifespan hasOn average, since the 1900s, the human lifespan has increased with the years, raising to 85 for males in someincreased with the years, raising to 85 for males in some areas of the worldareas of the world Some speculate that human life expectancy is aSome speculate that human life expectancy is a reflection of our innovations in medical technology andreflection of our innovations in medical technology and the lifestyle that we choose to live as humans in athe lifestyle that we choose to live as humans in a dynamic worlddynamic world Human life expectancy is also interpreted as a reflectionHuman life expectancy is also interpreted as a reflection of external conditions and the ways that people handleof external conditions and the ways that people handle their illness in relation to their environments.their illness in relation to their environments. The current world average life expectancy is 66.8,The current world average life expectancy is 66.8, compared to the much lower expectancy of 20 during thecompared to the much lower expectancy of 20 during the Neolithic periodNeolithic period Brought to you by 7. Lifespan Cont.Lifespan Cont. Historical trends suggest that, if left unaffected, humanHistorical trends suggest that, if left unaffected, human life expectancy will continue to grow into the 100s bylife expectancy will continue to grow into the 100s by 20592059 Many question our worldwide ability to fight disease, andMany question our worldwide ability to fight disease, and suggest that such an inability would contribute to asuggest that such an inability would contribute to a decrease in life expectancy in the futuredecrease in life expectancy in the future Although trends suggest that life expectancy shouldAlthough trends suggest that life expectancy should grow, the medical problems of today are lessgrow, the medical problems of today are less proportionally consistent to those of the pastproportionally consistent to those of the past Disease is the most common cause contributing to theDisease is the most common cause contributing to the degradation of life expectancydegradation of life expectancy Brought to you by 8. Brought to you by 9. Human WarrantyHuman Warranty S. Jay Olshansky and Bruce Carnes contend that living organisms are subject to a biological warranty period. James Fries, in 1980, made the stark prediction that humans were born with a maximum potential life expectancy The human body begins to substantially degrade around a consistent age of 80 Brought to you by 10. AgingAging Some say that aging is a genetic mechanismSome say that aging is a genetic mechanism inherent in all living things, and must occur as ainherent in all living things, and must occur as a natural process of lifenatural process of life (The) aging process may derive from changes occurring in(The) aging process may derive from changes occurring in parallel in different tissues due to intrinsic cellularparallel in different tissues due to intrinsic cellular mechanisms or changes in ones tissue (Magalhales,mechanisms or changes in ones tissue (Magalhales, 2004)2004) Others say that aging is a human tendency, andOthers say that aging is a human tendency, and can be battled by advances in technology andcan be battled by advances in technology and medical sciencemedical science Damage Based TheoryDamage Based Theory Programmed TheoryProgrammed Theory Brought to you by 11. Human LimitsHuman Limits Disease is not limited to economics or politics,Disease is not limited to economics or politics, while innovations in medical science arewhile innovations in medical science are Disease rates are not being compensated for byDisease rates are not being compensated for by cure rates in many countries, and effecting morecure rates in many countries, and effecting more populations of peoplepopulations of people Other theories suggest thatOther theories suggest that Biological limits in the human body will prevent furtherBiological limits in the human body will prevent further dramatic extensions of lifespan (dramatic extensions of lifespan (Carnes, 2003) Even if we eliminate all [current] causes of death in elderlyEven if we eliminate all [current] causes of death in elderly people, the increase in life expectancy will be no more thanpeople, the increase in life expectancy will be no more than 15 years (WebMD, 2001)15 years (WebMD, 2001) Brought to you by 12. Unlikely Cures For DiseaseUnlikely Cures For Disease Disease can manifest itself in manyDisease can manifest itself in many environments and in many different waysenvironments and in many different ways Drugs have too many inconsistencies toDrugs have too many inconsistencies to supersede many medical conditionssupersede many medical conditions Hereditary illness has more destructive potentialHereditary illness has more destructive potential than contagious disease, and dominates manythan contagious disease, and dominates many medically vulnerable countriesmedically vulnerable countries Many oncoming sciences like stem-cell researchMany oncoming sciences like stem-cell research and genetic modification are under great socialand genetic modification are under great social pressurepressure New research is expensiveNew research is expensive Brought to you by 13. Unlikely Disease ControlUnlikely Disease Control The potential for disease to be eradicated isThe potential for disease to be eradicated is compromised by social inabilities and economiccompromised by social inabilities and economic inefficiency commonly occurring in many affectedinefficiency commonly occurring in many affected countriescountries Disease, in its many forms, has a transforming potentialDisease, in its many forms, has a transforming potential that could outmatch our ability to innovatethat could outmatch our ability to innovate Disease spreads easier than many technologicalDisease spreads easier than many technological innovations and medical practicesinnovations and medical practices Cancer, and other common terminal illness, have deeplyCancer, and other common terminal illness, have deeply rooted genetic and environmental origins that are entirelyrooted genetic and environmental origins that are entirely resilient to many medical practicesresilient to many medical practices Brought to you by 14. Human ConditionsHuman Conditions Pandemics such as obesity and cancer lower life expectancy, and are not being medically compensated for Olshansky and his colleagues have reported analyses which suggest that the sharp increase over the past 20 years in the numbers of obese Americans could shorten average U.S. life expectancy by as much as two to five years (NIA, 2008) Many global health campaigns have not been demographically sufficient enough to impact life expectancy as a whole 15. ConclusionConclusion Human life expectancy will fluctuate, butHuman life expectancy will fluctuate, but not continue to grow until we can breachnot continue to grow until we can breach our social, economic, etc. problems withour social, economic, etc. problems with successful medical tacticssuccessful medical tactics Disease is becoming more prevalent, andDisease is becoming more prevalent, and proportionally inhibiting large populations;proportionally inhibiting large populations; causing major health concerns andcausing major health concerns and longevity problemslongevity problems Brought to you by 16. ReferencesReferences Carnes, B. A., Olshansky, J. S., Grahn, D. (2003). Biological evidence for limits to the duration of life. Biogerontology 4(1). 31-45 Fries, J. F. (1980). Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine. 303. 130-136. Magalhales, J. P. (2004).Magalhales, J. P. (20

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