Human Life Human Life Expectancy: What Can Expectancy: What Can We Expect? We Expect? Brought to you by
Jan 14, 2015
Human Life Expectancy: Human Life Expectancy: What Can We Expect?What Can We Expect?
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Purpose Of Research & Purpose Of Research & QuestionQuestion
What are the realities of What are the realities of human life expectancy?human life expectancy?
Why does aging occur Why does aging occur and can science extend and can science extend the life expectancy?the life expectancy?
How will new research How will new research concerning cures for concerning cures for diseases effect human diseases effect human life expectancy over the life expectancy over the next 100 years?next 100 years?
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HypothesisHypothesis
I predict that human life expectancy I predict that human life expectancy will not continue to grow over the next will not continue to grow over the next 100 years; the tendencies of death 100 years; the tendencies of death rates and oncoming illness will rates and oncoming illness will outmatch our technological and outmatch our technological and medical abilities and disable us from medical abilities and disable us from fighting newly formed diseases in fighting newly formed diseases in amounts high enough to reach a higher amounts high enough to reach a higher life expectancylife expectancy Brought to you by
Human Life ExpectancyHuman Life Expectancy
“It would take an 85 percent decline in all-cause mortality from the 1985 level to yieldan eventual life expectancy of 100 years.Human life expectancy in the United States is unlikely to exceed 90 years in the 21st century.” (Olshansky, et. al., 2005)
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What Determines Human Life What Determines Human Life ExpectancyExpectancy
Medical abilities/inabilitiesMedical abilities/inabilities Social abilities/inabilities of countriesSocial abilities/inabilities of countries Economic abilities/inabilitiesEconomic abilities/inabilities Disease PrevalenceDisease Prevalence Political abilities/inabilitiesPolitical abilities/inabilities Lack of resourcesLack of resources Socioeconomic ReasonsSocioeconomic Reasons Brought to you by
The Human LifespanThe Human Lifespan
On average, since the 1900’s, the human lifespan On average, since the 1900’s, the human lifespan has increased with the years, raising to 85 for has increased with the years, raising to 85 for males in some areas of the worldmales in some areas of the world
Some speculate that human life expectancy is a Some speculate that human life expectancy is a reflection of our innovations in medical technology reflection of our innovations in medical technology and the lifestyle that we choose to live as humans and the lifestyle that we choose to live as humans in a dynamic worldin a dynamic world
Human life expectancy is also interpreted as a Human life expectancy is also interpreted as a reflection of external conditions and the ways that reflection of external conditions and the ways that people handle their illness in relation to their people handle their illness in relation to their environments.environments.
The current world average life expectancy is 66.8, The current world average life expectancy is 66.8, compared to the much lower expectancy of 20 compared to the much lower expectancy of 20 during the Neolithic periodduring the Neolithic period Brought to you by
Lifespan Cont.Lifespan Cont.
Historical trends suggest that, if left unaffected, Historical trends suggest that, if left unaffected, human life expectancy will continue to grow into human life expectancy will continue to grow into the 100’s by 2059the 100’s by 2059
Many question our worldwide ability to fight Many question our worldwide ability to fight disease, and suggest that such an inability would disease, and suggest that such an inability would contribute to a decrease in life expectancy in the contribute to a decrease in life expectancy in the futurefuture
Although trends suggest that life expectancy Although trends suggest that life expectancy should grow, the medical problems of today are should grow, the medical problems of today are less proportionally consistent to those of the pastless proportionally consistent to those of the past
Disease is the most common cause contributing Disease is the most common cause contributing to the degradation of life expectancyto the degradation of life expectancy Brought to you by
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Human WarrantyHuman Warranty
S. Jay Olshansky and Bruce Carnes contend that living organisms are subject to a “biological warranty” period.
James Fries, in 1980, made the stark prediction that humans were born with a maximum potential life expectancy
The human body begins to substantially degrade around a consistent age of 80
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AgingAging Some say that aging is a genetic Some say that aging is a genetic
mechanism inherent in all living things, mechanism inherent in all living things, and must occur as a natural process of lifeand must occur as a natural process of life
““(The) aging process may derive from changes (The) aging process may derive from changes occurring in parallel in different tissues due to occurring in parallel in different tissues due to intrinsic cellular mechanisms or changes in one’s intrinsic cellular mechanisms or changes in one’s tissue” (Magalhales, 2004)tissue” (Magalhales, 2004)
Others say that aging is a human Others say that aging is a human tendency, and can be battled by advances tendency, and can be battled by advances in technology and medical sciencein technology and medical science
Damage Based TheoryDamage Based Theory Programmed TheoryProgrammed Theory Brought to you by
Human LimitsHuman Limits
Disease is not limited to economics or Disease is not limited to economics or politics, while innovations in medical science politics, while innovations in medical science areare
Disease rates are not being compensated for Disease rates are not being compensated for by cure rates in many countries, and by cure rates in many countries, and effecting more populations of peopleeffecting more populations of people
Other theories suggest thatOther theories suggest that “ “Biological limits in the human body will prevent further Biological limits in the human body will prevent further
dramatic extensions of lifespan” (dramatic extensions of lifespan” (Carnes, 2003) ““Even if we eliminate all [current] causes of death in Even if we eliminate all [current] causes of death in
elderly people, the increase in life expectancy will be no elderly people, the increase in life expectancy will be no more than 15 years” (WebMD, 2001)more than 15 years” (WebMD, 2001) Brought to you by
Unlikely Cures For DiseaseUnlikely Cures For Disease Disease can manifest itself in many Disease can manifest itself in many
environments and in many different waysenvironments and in many different ways Drugs have too many inconsistencies to Drugs have too many inconsistencies to
supersede many medical conditionssupersede many medical conditions Hereditary illness has more destructive Hereditary illness has more destructive
potential than contagious disease, and potential than contagious disease, and dominates many medically vulnerable dominates many medically vulnerable countriescountries
Many oncoming sciences like stem-cell Many oncoming sciences like stem-cell research and genetic modification are research and genetic modification are under great social pressureunder great social pressure
New research is expensiveNew research is expensiveBrought to you by
Unlikely Disease ControlUnlikely Disease Control
The potential for disease to be eradicated is The potential for disease to be eradicated is compromised by social inabilities and economic compromised by social inabilities and economic inefficiency commonly occurring in many affected inefficiency commonly occurring in many affected countriescountries
Disease, in its many forms, has a transforming Disease, in its many forms, has a transforming potential that could outmatch our ability to potential that could outmatch our ability to innovateinnovate
Disease spreads easier than many technological Disease spreads easier than many technological innovations and medical practicesinnovations and medical practices
Cancer, and other common terminal illness, have Cancer, and other common terminal illness, have deeply rooted genetic and environmental origins deeply rooted genetic and environmental origins that are entirely resilient to many medical that are entirely resilient to many medical practicespractices
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Human ConditionsHuman Conditions
Pandemics such as obesity and cancer lower life expectancy, and are not being medically compensated for
“Olshansky and his colleagues have reported analyses which suggest that the sharp increase over the past 20 years in the numbers of obese Americans could shorten average U.S. life expectancy by as much as two to five years” (NIA, 2008)
Many global health campaigns have not been demographically sufficient enough to impact life expectancy as a whole
ConclusionConclusion
Human life expectancy will fluctuate, Human life expectancy will fluctuate, but not continue to grow until we can but not continue to grow until we can breach our social, economic, etc. breach our social, economic, etc. problems with successful medical problems with successful medical tacticstactics
Disease is becoming more prevalent, Disease is becoming more prevalent, and proportionally inhibiting large and proportionally inhibiting large populations; causing major health populations; causing major health concerns and longevity problemsconcerns and longevity problemsBrought to you by
ReferencesReferences Carnes, B. A., Olshansky, J. S., Grahn, D. (2003). Biological evidence for limits to the duration of life. Biogerontology 4(1). 31-45
Fries, J. F. (1980). Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine. 303. 130-136.
Magalhales, J. P. (2004). Magalhales, J. P. (2004). Why Do We Age? Why Do We Age? Retrieved on November 2 from: Retrieved on November 2 from: http://www.senescence.info/theories.htmlhttp://www.senescence.info/theories.html
NIA. (2008). NIA. (2008). The Future of Human Life Expectancy. The Future of Human Life Expectancy. Retrieved on November 5, Retrieved on November 5, 2008 from: www.2008 from: www.prb.orgprb.org/pdf06/NIA_FutureofLifeExpectancy.pdf /pdf06/NIA_FutureofLifeExpectancy.pdf
Olshansky, J. S., Passaro, D. J., Hershow, R. C., Layden, J., Carnes, B. A., Brady, J., Hayflick, J. R., Butler, R. N., Allison, D. B., and Ludwig, D. S. (2005). A potential decline in life expectancy in the united states in the 21st
century. New England Journal of Medicine 352(11). 1138-1145.
WebMD. (2001). Human Life Expectancy Nearing Limits. Retrieved on November 2 from: http://www.webmd.com/news/20010218/human-life-expectancy-nearing-limits
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