How Large Systems Change

How large systems change: Thoughts on the future of higher education

George Siemens, PhDSeptember 3, 2013

University of South Australia

Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2009

Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2012

Technological and economic pressures change even the biggest institutions.

We don’t know what higher education will become

But we have models of how it will change

Perez 2011

Perez 2002

Perez 2002

Perez 2011

Economic

“In the face of continued increases in participation, demographic change and – in the west at least – profound fiscal crises, higher education institutions are increasingly being required to raise funds from students as opposed to relying on transfers from governments.”

Marcucci & Usher 2012

Meeker & Wu, 2013

Education Sector Factbook, 2012

IBIS Capital: Global e-Learning Investment Review, 2013

NYTimes, UNESCO Data

Economic

Meeker & Wu, 2013

Meeker & Wu, 2013

Getting the idea, but not the scope of change

What does this mean for education?

“Changing…higher education is a faculty responsibility”

Zemsky 2013

A university as

“assemblage of strangers from all parts in one spot”

J.H. Newman Lecturers 1854-1859

What we are seeing is the complexification of higher education

Learning needs are complex, ongoing

Simple singular narrative won’t suffice going forward

The idea of the university is expanding and diversifying

McKinsey Quarterly, 2012

CalculatedRISK, 2013



Challenge then is to create a new integrated whole

Challenge then is to create a new integrated system

University as an agent within society

Network Theory of PowerNetworking Power

Network Power

Networked Power

Network-making PowerCastells, 2011

the world will fragment, with some parts moving towards the brighter side of networked individualism and other parts moving towards gated communities and more tightly controlled information flows.

Network Theory of Change

Network Theory of ChangeCore nodes Impacting factors (economic, technical)Connection validationSocial and cultural milieu (institutional change)ResonanceIntegration (hardening) for power

Current reforms are allowing certain individuals with neither scholarly nor practical expertise in education to exert significant influence over educational policy for communities and children other than their own.

Prominent trends shaping the future of higher education

1. Openness2. Digital learning3. Granularized learning4. Data & analytics5. For-profit/startups (expanding ecosystem)6. Personalization/adaptivity7. Wearable/contextual computing8. Unbundling of organizational roles9. Blurring distinctive learning roles (lifelong)10.Degrees and alternative recognition models

When systems are distributed, alternative modes of integration are needed

Stasser-Titus (1985)

Value is in the lock-in and integration(i.e. ecosystem and new networks)

Higher education change1. Understand how large systems change2. Track data relating to sector around

technology and economics3. Position techno-economic change in social

contexts/zeitgeist/values4. Aggressive experimentation and new

models (without regard for existing norms/legacies)

5. New ecosystems and new integration models

Futures Scenarios for Universities1. Status Quo2. Accreditors (teach globally, accredit locally)

-Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, testing)3. Unbundled (teacher/research separate)4. Localized/specialized5. “Transformed” (online, blended)6. Successful universities as “new integrators”

- Formation of integrated value ecosystem

What to expect: - Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, teaching, testing)

- Increased collaboration/partnerships with sector-providers

- New entrants (often startups) into the integrated value ecosystem

- Successful universities are “new integrators”

- Labor strife

- Concerns about pace of, and ideologies behind, change

Twitter/Gmail: gsiemens