How dangerous is the Kashmir dispute? How dangerous is the Kashmir dispute? It is potentially one of the most dangerous disputes in the world and in the.

How dangerous is the How dangerous is the Kashmir dispute?Kashmir dispute?

It is potentially one of the most dangerous disputes in the world and in the worst-case scenario could trigger a nuclear conflict.

PartitionPartition• 1947

– Aug 14th: Pakistan Independent (midnight)– Aug 15th: India Independent

• 1948:– Jan 4th: Myanmar (Burma) Independent– Feb 4th: Sri Lanka (Ceylon) Independent

• 1971:– East and West Pakistan separate/ – Bangladesh Independent (India supported Bangladesh)

Lord Mountbatten's plan for partition of IndiaLord Mountbatten's plan for partition of India• British QUIT IndiaQUIT India.

– CHOOSE who you want. India? Pakistan?

• Kashmir’s Maharajah: Hari SinghHari Singh.– Hindu ruler with mostly Muslim constituency

– Dillydallyed with decision.

– Pakistan poised to invade

– Singh flees, and strikes deal with India

• Vote for Kashmir… Never happens• Kashmir: Mostly Muslim

– India wants for MULTI-ETHNIC SECULAR DEMOCRACY

– Pakistan wants B/C OF RELIGION

• War. Times four.

Map of India according to BBCMap of India according to BBC

Map of India according to an Map of India according to an Indian classroomIndian classroom

Timeline of Events Post Independenc

e

• Partition and independence (1947)– The Indian subcontinent was partitioned into Hindu-dominated but nominally secular India

and the newly created Muslim state of Pakistan after India’s independence from Great Britain in 1947. Severe rioting and population movement ensued and an estimated half a million people were killed in communal violence. About a million people were left homeless. Since partition, the territory of Jammu and Kashmir has remained in dispute, with Pakistan and India both holding sectors.

• The 1947- 48 war – India and Pakistan first went to war in October 1947 after Pakistan supported a Muslim

insurgency in Kashmir. India agreed to a request for armed assistance from Kashmir's Maharaja, in return for accession of the state to India. But the nature of that accession has long been the subject of debate. The war ended on 1 January 1949, with the establishment of a ceasefire line. The status of the territory remained in dispute because an agreed referendum to confirm the accession was never held.

• The 1965 war – The two countries went to war again after Pakistan launched a covert offensive across the

ceasefire line into Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. India retaliated by crossing the international border at Lahore.

• The 1971 war – Pakistan descended into civil war after East Pakistan demanded autonomy and later

independence. India invaded East Pakistan in support of its people after millions of civilians fled to India. At the end of 1971, Bangladesh was created out of East Pakistan.

• Kashmir insurgency: 1989– Armed resistance to Indian rule broke out in the Kashmir valley in 1989, with some groups

calling for independence and others calling for union with Pakistan. India accused Pakistan of supplying weapons to the militants. During the 1990s, with the emergence of militant Muslim groups, the movement’s ideology became essentially Islamic in nature.

Line of Line of ControlControl

• A demarcation line was originally established in January 1949 as a ceasefire line, following the end of the first Kashmir war.

• In July 1972, after a second conflict, the Line of Control (LoC) was re-established The LoC passes through a mountainous region about 19,685 feet above sea level.

• The conditions there are so extreme that the bitter cold claims more lives than the sporadic military skirmishes.

• North of the LoC, the rival forces have been entrenched on the Siachen glacier (more than 19,685 feet above sea level) since 1984 - the highest battlefield on earth.

• The LoC divides Kashmir on an almost two-to-one basis: Indian-administered Kashmir to the east and south (population about nine million), which falls into the Indian-controlled state of Jammu and Kashmir; and Pakistani-administered Kashmir to the north and west (population about three million), which is labeled by Pakistan as "Azad" (Free) Kashmir. China also controls a small portion of Kashmir.

Con’tCon’t• Diplomatic push (1996-1997)

– India and Pakistan set up low-level meetings to defuse tension over Jammu and Kashmir. The diplomatic push became more concerted a year later and an agenda for peace talks was agreed on. Also in 1997, Pakistan suggested that the two sides meet to discuss restraining nuclear and missile capabilities.

• Nuclear rivalry (1998)– Fears of a nuclear confrontation grew, after both sides conducted nuclear tests. The US

ordered sanctions against both countries, with several European nations doing the same. Tensions were reduced early the following year after the two sides signed an accord pledging to intensify efforts to resolve all issues – including that of Jammu and Kashmir.

• Kargil conflict (1999)– Conflict again erupted after India launched air strikes against Pakistani-backed forces that

had infiltrated Indian-administered Kashmir. Fighting built up towards a direct conflict between the two states and tens of thousands of people were reported to have fled their homes on both sides of the ceasefire line. Later that year, General Musharraf led a military coup in Pakistan.

• The brink of war (2001)– Tension along the ceasefire line continued. In October 38 people were killed after an attack

on the Kashmiri assembly in Srinagar. A month later, 14 people were killed in an attack on the Indian parliament in Delhi. India again blamed Pakistani-backed Kashmiri militants. A dramatic build up of troops along the Indo-Pakistan border ensued.

• What are the rival claims? What are the rival claims? – Islamabad says Kashmir should have become part of Pakistan in 1947, because

Muslims are in the majority in the region. Pakistan also argues that Kashmiris should be allowed to vote in a referendum on their future, as stated in many UN resolutions

– Delhi, however, does not want international debate on the issue, arguing that the Simla Agreement of 1972 provided for a resolution through bilateral talks. India points to the Instrument of Accession signed in October 1947 by the Maharaja, Hari Singh.

– Both India and Pakistan reject the option of Kashmir becoming an independent state.

• Who are the militants? Who are the militants? – Since the insurgency began in 1989, the number of armed Muslim separatists grew from

hundreds to thousands. – The most prominent militant group are the pro-Pakistani Hizbul Mujahideen. Islamabad

denies providing them and others with logistical and material support.

• Is religion an issue? Is religion an issue? – Religion is an important aspect of the dispute. Partition in 1947 gave India's Muslims a

state of their own: Pakistan. So a common faith underpins Pakistan's claims to Kashmir, where many areas are Muslim-dominated.

– The population of the Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir is over 60% Muslim, making it the only state within India where Muslims are in the majority.

• What's the UN involvement? What's the UN involvement? – The UN has maintained a presence in the disputed area since 1949. Currently, the LoC

is monitored by the UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (Unmogip).

Today in Kashmir:Today in Kashmir:o Kashmir development promisesKashmir development promises

o http://www.voanews.com/content/india-tightens-security-in-kashmir-ahead-of-modi-speech/2549874.html

o Terrorism in Kashmiro httphttp://

www.voanews.com/content/soldiers-police-killed-in-predawn-attack-indian-kashmir/2546878.html

o India PM Modi (Hindu) shakes up Kashmir election (India PM Modi (Hindu) shakes up Kashmir election (Hindu nationalist BJP)o http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/12/us-india-kashmir-http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/12/us-india-kashmir-

idUSKCN0IW13220141112idUSKCN0IW13220141112

o More ModiMore Modio http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30380227 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30380227