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honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion
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Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Dec 28, 2015

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Merilyn Bishop
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Page 1: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

honolulutraffic.com

Seeking cost effective ways to reduce

O’ahu’s traffic congestion

Page 2: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

HOT BRT Bus/Rapid Transit (BRT) running in

High-Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes

or

RAIL TRANSIT

Page 3: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Benefits & Costs of the alternatives

• Will they reduce congestion?

• Are the costs reasonable?

www.honolulutraffic.com

The normal way that business people approach planning on a large project is to first roughly estimate the costs, then estimate the benefits and then ask, “Are we in the ballpark?” If yes, then the planning proceeds, with constant refinement of costs and benefits.

The city is not doing that. We know which stations will have escalators but not whether rail will reduce traffic congestion, the most important benefit, or at what cost. So let’s look at the chances of rail giving us a reduction in traffic congestion and what rail will cost. And then look at HOT lanes and what they could do for us.

Page 4: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Commuting on Oahu, 1980-2000

www.honolulutraffic.com

First, a little history. This is the Census data for Honolulu. Notice that drivers have been increasing and transit is in decline both in percentages and in absolute numbers. The trend continues.

Page 5: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

National Census data for journey-to-work, 1960-2000

 Percent of commuters

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Private Vehicle 64.0% 77.7% 84.1% 86.5% 87.9%

Public transportation 12.1% 8.9% 6.4% 5.3% 4.7%

Walked 9.9% 7.4% 5.6% 3.9% 2.9%

Worked at home 7.2% 3.5% 2.3% 3.0% 3.3%

www.honolulutraffic.com

It is the same nationally. A continual decline in the use of public transportation and increases in drivers — decade after decade.

Page 6: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

8/80 principle The 8/80 principle says public

transportation is so small a percentage

of commuting, that unless we triple or

quadruple the percentage it have little

impact on the huge percentage of

drivers. That has not happened

anywhere; it has declined.

www.honolulutraffic.com

We are coining the idea of the “8/80 principle” to focus people on the importance of the percentage of commuters using public transportation — of any kind

Page 7: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

The 8/80 principle:

• The city forecasts 130,000 new commuters by 2030.

• If we maintain these percentages:• 10,000 of these new commuters will use bus and/or rail • 100,000 will drive.

• But no metro area has ever increased the percentage of transit commuters over any 20 year period.

Oahu commuters:

• 8% use TheBus.

• 80% drive

This is where the 8/80 principle comes from: How Oahu commuters get to work. As of 2000, 34,000 Oahu commuters used transit. To keep the same level of traffic congestion as 2000, about 110,000 commuters would have to use transit, or about 3.5 times the number currently, or 20 percent of all commuters and that would be greater than any place other than New York.

Page 8: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

8/80 principle for Vancouver, 1993-2003:

Source: www.translink.bc.ca/files/pdf/plan_proj/10year_project.pdf page 10.

    Vancouver commute method

  Commuters Transit % Autos %

1993 805,000 88,550 11.0% 595,700 74.0%

2003 1,100,000 121,000 11.0% 814,000 74.0%

Change +295,000 +32,450   +218,300  

www.honolulutraffic.com

Here’s the 8/80 principle as work in the poster child city of Vancouver. They maintained the same percentages of commuters using transit and autos. Consequently their 295,000 new commuters split 74:11 resulting in a 32 thousand increase in transit commuters, which people rave about BUT two hundred thousand increase in drivers.

Page 9: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

8/80 principle for Portland 1990-2000

  Portland commute method

  Commuters Transit % Autos %

1990 861,141 41,335 4.8% 635,522 73.8%

2000 1,105,133 62,992 5.7% 807,852 73.1%

Change +243,992 +21,657   +172,330  

U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highways Administration file: msacomparison. xls www.honolulutraffic.com

Here’s the 8/80 principle at work in Portland. Net result: 21 thousand new transit commuters BUT one hundred and seventy new drivers.

Page 10: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Automobiles overwhelm transit, 1990-2000

% Drove % Transit

Inc/(dec) in drivers

Inc/(dec) in transit1990 2000 1990 2000

National Total 73.2% 75.7% 5.3% 4.7% 12,886,752 (1,886)

U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highways Administration file: msacomparison. xls

www.honolulutraffic.com

Most of the other cities performed worse than Vancouver and Portland that is why on average in the nation, commuter usage of transit slid from 5.3 to 4.7 percent and drivers increased from 73.2 to 75.7 percent. With 13 million new commuters it meant that we had 13 million more drivers and no new transit users.

Page 11: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh

All 20 Metro Areas with rail in 2000

www.honolulutraffic.com

These are the 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) that have rail lines. The U.S. Dept. of Transportation uses MSA’s, or metro areas, in discussing urban transportation because it only makes sense to group contiguous urban areas together.

Page 12: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh

All declined in percentage of commuter use

1980-2000

www.honolulutraffic.com

These metro areas with rail all saw percentage declines in the commuter use of public transportation in 1980-2000. The only exception was that San Diego increased from 3.3 to 3.4 percent — essentially nothing to nothing.

Page 13: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

1 Atlanta 2 Washington, DC 3 Dallas 4 Los Angeles 6 San Diego 8 San Francisco 8 Chicago11 Miami15 Boston16 Denver17 Seattle20 Portland22 New York26 Sacramento26 Salt Lake City38 Philadelphia43 St. Louis65 Cleveland65 Buffalo81 Pittsburgh

Congestion data from Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Study, Table 4.

The worst traffic

congestion increases in the nation, 1982-2003

www.honolulutraffic.com

The Texas Transportation Institute, the nation’s guardians of traffic congestion data, list in the latest Urban Mobility Report, 85 urban areas listed in order of the worst increase in traffic congestion in the period 1982-2003. Note that 7 of the 10 worst have rail transit; 16 of the 20 rail areas are in the top half of the worst increases and the other four had little population growth.

Page 14: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Urban Area Traffic Congestion

• 11 Very Large: over 3 million population. All with rail lines, except Houston — it had the least increase in traffic congestion.

• 27 Large: 1 to 3 million population — half with rail lines. The 4 best had no rail lines.

• 30 Medium: ½ to 1 million population, includes Honolulu. Only Salt Lake City had rail — they had the third worst increase.

Congestion data from Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Study, Table 4.

www.honolulutraffic.com

This is another way the Texas Transportation Institute looks at it; by dividing the cities by population size.

Page 15: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

• Investing in public transportation of any kind will not reduce traffic congestion.

• It may produce other beneficial outcomes but not congestion reduction

www.honolulutraffic.com

This may seem like an extraordinary statement but the evidence is quite clear and reviewing the data in greater detail than is done here only confirms the statement. There may be other benefits to public transportation such as social justice benefits, or equity reasons, but not the reduction of traffic congestion.

Page 16: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Leeward Corridor Problem:

– Highway traffic congestion– Not insufficient transit.

You can only relieve traffic congestion by expanding highway capacity:

– Construct new highways– Make them more efficient

www.honolulutraffic.com

We can all agree we need new capacity in the Leeward Corridor. But we must first be honest with the public because it is their view that our problem is traffic congestion; we do not have a public transportation problem. In addition, we have to recognize that, short of using politically unacceptable congestion pricing on all freeways, we can only relieve traffic congestion by building new highways and making them more efficient.

Page 17: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Bus/Rapid Transit & autos on HOT lanes @ $900 million?

OR

Rail transit @

$4.1 billion?

Flexible: Buses, van pools, HandiVans, autos, trucks, ambulances, civil defense, police, tow trucks, and other emergency vehicles

Inflexible: Train riders only — when not on strike.

Leeward Corridor capacity increase needed

www.honolulutraffic.com

This is why we suggested the HOT lanes approach.

Page 18: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

HOV lanes carry more than most rail lines

www.honolulutraffic.com

Voters have been abused for a long time by rail proponents making statements such as it takes 12 freeway lanes to equal one light rail line. What nonsense. As we can see here only NYC’s subways move more people than the three largest HOV facilities.

Page 19: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

HOV carries more per hour than rail

Portland Eastside MAX light rail line 1,980 people per hour

Portland’s 6th Avenue HOV lane 8,500 people per hour

Quote: “Both rail and HOV can serve the person carrying capacity needs of about any corridor in North America”

Parsons, Brinckerhoff HOV Manual

Transportation Research Board Highway Capacity Manual

www.honolulutraffic.com/passperhour.htm

www.honolulutraffic.com

Portland, the light rail poster city makes the case for us. Their light rail carries much less than the average HOT lanes. And their HOV lane carries over four times as much.

Page 20: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Reversible non-stop HOT lanes are better

Two lanes into town in the morning and out in the afternoon.

Buses and vanpools have priority, cars pay tolls electronically.

A fast, reliable trip when needed makes them popular with everyone.

http

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/lexu

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www.honolulutraffic.comThis is the 3-lane Tampa reversible toll lanes due to open later this year.

Page 21: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

HOT lanes: Waikele to Pier 16

www.honolulutraffic.comWe have suggested running a HOT lanes facility from around the H1/H2 merge down to Pier 16 near Hilo Hattie’s.

Page 22: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

HOT lanes advantages:

• Uncongested HOT lane traffic is at 55-60mph but, because of station stops, rail only averages 22 to 28 mph.

• HOT lanes enable buses to make two trips in the time it now takes to make one.

• Buses can travel door-to-door whereas rail nearly always requires transfers.

http://www.honolulutraffic.com/railspeed.pdf

www.honolulutraffic.com

Buses can make two trips by returning in the reverse direction using regular, relatively uncrowded freeways.

Page 23: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

HOT lanes are more efficient

A regular freeway lane, such as the H-1 between Mapunapuna and Kaimuki, during the congested peak rush hour now carries just 1,500 vehicles (cars and buses) per hour with an average load of 1.25 people, or 1,875 per lane hour.

www.honolulutraffic.com

Freeways peak out at over 2,000 vehicles an hour when uncongested. As more and more vehicles crowd onto the freeways at peak hours, the throughput of vehicles declines until it reaches bottom at around 1,500 an hour.

Page 24: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

• A HOT lane during the peak rush hour carries 1,800 vehicles per hour because of pricing.

• The two HOT lanes will take 3,600 vehicles off the regular freeways — guaranteed — in addition to those switching from cars to buses. These will be about 25% of auto commuters in the corridor.

HOT lanes are more efficient

* The higher average load is because of a greater ratio of buses to autos and more use of carpooling on priced lanes. See Poole and Orski.

There is a seeming paradox here that by restraining drivers from entering the freeway, we get greater throughput but that is the way it works.

The variable is not whether HOT lanes can take 3,600 cars of the regular freeway but rather the toll price that it will take to do that. It may be $5, or 5¢ but between these two numbers is a price that will entice drivers to fill the HOT lanes.

Page 25: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

A HOT lane during the peak rush hour carries 1,800 vehicles per hour with an average load of 2.5 people,* or 4,500 per lane hour.

HOT lanes are more efficient

* The higher average load is because of a greater ratio of buses to autos and more use of carpooling on priced lanes. See Poole and Orski.

www.honolulutraffic.com

You will have noticed that the 4,500 people is 2.4 times that of a regular freeway lane.

Page 26: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

• The two HOT lanes together carry 9,000 people an hour.

• That’s the same as nearly five regular freeway lanes

• That is more than the people carried by either the H-1 or Moanalua freeways.

HOT lanes are more efficient

www.honolulutraffic.com

Page 27: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

The cost of rail:

• Waiau to UH in 1991$ $1.8 billion• Inflation 1991-2005 $0.7 billion• Kapolei to Waiau ext $1.6 billion• Total cost $4.1 billion• Less Federal funding $0.5 billion• To be locally funded $3.5 billion

The ½ percent GE tax hike is not enough. In the out years it only covers interest and operating losses. We will still owe $3 billion 15 years out.

See honolulutraffic.com spreadsheet www.honolulutraffic.com

Before cost overruns

The $1.8 billion is arrived at by taking the total 1992 FEIS LPA costs and deducting the No-Build costs.

Page 28: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

HOT lanes do not need a tax hike

• 10 miles @ $90 mm a mile* $900 million

• Less federal funding ($450 million)

• Net local funding needed $450 million

• Toll revenues, $20 million annually growing at ½ % annually plus inflation, will retire a $450 million bond issue in 25 years.

• * According to Braden Smith, CFO of Tampa-Hillsborough Expressway Authority (813) 272-6740 Tampa cost should be $28 million a mile.

www.honolulutraffic.com

We are understating the HOT lanes costs somewhat. The main issue is that they do not need a tax increase.

Page 29: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Summary:

• Rail has never improved traffic congestion.

• We have a traffic problem, not a transit problem.

• HOT lanes gives motorists a choice.

• HOT lanes outperform rail transit.

• We can afford HOT lanes; we cannot afford rail.

www.honolulutraffic.com

Page 30: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh

Honolulu would be the smallest

metro area with rail in the U.S. There are 32 larger than

us with no rail.

www.honolulutraffic.com

And worse, the $3.5 billion in local funding needed would burden our local taxpayers per capita far more than any other metro area in the country.

Page 31: Honolulutraffic.com Seeking cost effective ways to reduce O’ahu’s traffic congestion.

honolulutraffic.com

Seeking cost effective ways to reduce

O’ahu’s traffic congestion

Questions to [email protected]

That’s it. Thanks for staying with us through the whole presentation!