Health Impacts of Global Climate Change Jamal Hisham Hashim, PhD Professor of Environmental Health & Research Fellow International Institute for Global.

Health Impacts of Global Climate Change

Jamal Hisham Hashim, PhDProfessor of Environmental Health & Research Fellow

International Institute for Global Health (UNU-IIGH)

Presented at the 16th National Public Health Colloquium, 24-25 November 2009, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,

UNU-IIGHInternational Institute for Global Health

• What is climate change?• Greenhouse effect and global

warming.• Environmental impacts of climate

change.• Health impacts of climate change.• Research needs.

Outline of TalkOutline of Talk


• Accessibility, Efficiency and Quality of Care in Health System

• Newly Emerging and Re-emerging diseases and epidemics

• Control of Non-communicable Diseases

• IT in Health• Climate Change and Health• Impact of Globalization on Health Care

Research Themes of UNU-IIGHResearch Themes of UNU-IIGH


• Weather is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere around us, characterized by the temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements.

• Climate refers to the average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a certain time-span and a certain area.

• Statistically significant variations of the mean state of the climate or of its variability, typically persisting for decades or longer, are referred to as “climate change.”

Weather and ClimateWeather and Climate


What is Climate Change ?What is Climate Change ?• According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC), it refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

• According to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, it refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Source : IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007.


IPCC Climate Change StudyIPCC Climate Change Study• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has

been established by WMO and UNEP to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

• IPCC has come out with the Climate Change 2007 : The IPCC 4th Assessment Report.

• It is the work of over 2500 scientific expert reviewers, over 800 contributing authors and over 450 lead authors from over 130 countries.

• It involves 6 years of work in 4 volumes of report.


Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect• Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC and

O3) trap long-wave radiation from earth from escaping through the atmosphere into space.

• This produces the greenhouse effect which warms the earth atmosphere.

• This greenhouse effect leads to the phenomenon called global warming.


Global WarmingGlobal Warming• Global average surface temperature has increased

since 1861.• Over the 20th century, it has increased by about

0.74 ± 0.18 oC.• Since late 1950’s, overall global temperature

increase in the troposphere and in surface temperature have been 0.13 oC per decade.

• 1990’s was the warmest decade with 1998 the warmest year since 1861.

• Greatest warming effects occur over the tropical and sub-tropical regions.

Source : Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office.

Mean 1961-1990



Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing

• Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases cause positive radiative forcing which tend to warm surface temperature.

• Increasing concentrations of aerosols cause negative radiative forcing which tend to cool surface temperature.




Change in Precipitation PatternChange in Precipitation Pattern• Precipitation has increased by 0.2 to 0.3 %

per decade over the tropical (10 oN to 10 oS) land areas.

• Precipitation has decreased over some areas of central and west Africa.

• Warm episodes of the ENSO phenomenon which is associated with droughts and warm temperatures in the tropics, have been more frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970s, compared with the previous 100 years.

The disappearing Lake

Chad : Decreased rainfall

in the area since the

1960’s has increased

water demand for

agriculture.


Rising Sea Level and Ocean Rising Sea Level and Ocean Heat ContentHeat Content

• Tidal gauge data show that global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 meters during the 20th century.

• Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950.



How Does Climate Change How Does Climate Change Affect Human Health ?Affect Human Health ?

• Thermal stress :

* Major increases in the frequency of heat

waves with climate change may occur.

* In 1995, the week-long heat wave in

Chicago caused more than 700 heat-

related deaths (Whitman et.al, 1997).

Source : World Health Organization. (2003). Climate change and human health – Risks and responses.



• Decreased precipitation :

* Leads to drought which triggers forest

fires causing respiratory problems (Brauer &

Jamal, 1998).

* Drought also reduces surface water flow, thus

degrading water quality leading to waterborne

disease.

* Droughts may reduce food production leading to

diseases of malnutritions.



• Increased precipitation :

* Populations in developing countries are vulnerable to floods

because of their habitation of high-risk areas like flood

plains and coastal zones.

* Deaths from drowning and physical injuries from accidents

among victims.

* Mixing of flood water with sewage and wastes leads to

waterborne diseases, especially among the malnourished.

* Increase opportunity for pest breeding which leads to

vectorborne and zoonotic diseases (eg. Leptospirosis).

Tropical storm Ketsana hit Manila in September 2009



• Increased sea level :

* Leads to flooding. Mixing of flood water

with sewage and wastes leads to

waterborne diseases.

* Increase opportunity for pest breeding

which leads to vectorborne and zoonotic

diseases.

* Salt water intrusion affecting groundwater and

breeding of certain disease vector

(A. sundaicus).



• Vectorborne diseases :

* Modeling work suggest a 5% to 7% potential

increase in malaria distribution through increased

altitudinal reach and a 16% to 28% exposure risk

due to prolonged transmission season in Africa in

this century (Tanser et.al, 2003).

* Increase temperature may increase Dengue virus

replication in Aedes aegypti leading to potential

epidemics (Patz et. Al, 1998).

Waterborne diseases

Melting of polar ice

Increase precipitation

Vector breeding

Flooding

Altered wind patterns

Decrease precipitation

Drought

Aerosol pollution

Water pollution

Global warming

Global coolingGreenhouse gases

Ocean warming

Increase sea level

Coastal flooding

Mudslide Poor food production

Malnutrition

Respiratory diseases

Vectorborne diseases

Population displacement

Increase surface temperature

Thermal stress

Rodent-transmitted diseases

Negative radiative forcing

Health Effects of Global Climate Change

Extreme weather

Injury & death

Positive radiative forcing

Forest fires

Jamal HH (2007)

Health impacts Environmental impacts

Environmental modifications


Research NeedsResearch Needs

• Quantifying change in disease burden associated with climate change, especially in developing countries.

• Identifying population groups susceptible to health effects of climate change (the elderly, poor and homeless).

• Predicting the impacts of intervention policies (eg. improved fuel efficiency, promotion of renewable energy).

• Disaster management during extreme weather events (eg. cyclones, floods and forest fires).

• Countries’ preparedness in dealing with the effects of climate change.


• A planned collaborative research with UNU-INWEH, UNU-EHS, UNU-ESD, UNU-IEGL, UNU-IIST and UNU & GIST.

• To study the health impacts of deteriorating water quality in the Mekong Delta, as a consequent of environmental and climate change.

• Preliminary work has begun and now seeking bigger fund.

Connecting Environmental Changes, Connecting Environmental Changes, Impacts and Responses in the Mekong Impacts and Responses in the Mekong

Delta to Human Wellbeing Delta to Human Wellbeing and Ecosystem Integrityand Ecosystem Integrity


Climate changeClimate change

Sea level riseSea level rise Extreme weatherExtreme weather

Salt water intrusionSalt water intrusion

Soil salinizationSoil salinization

Vector habitat change

Vector habitat change



Surface temperature change

Surface temperature change

Change in rainfall pattern

Change in rainfall pattern

Flood Flood DroughtDrought

Agriculture & aquacultureAgriculture & aquaculture

Food security

Food security

MalnutritionMalnutrition

Pesticide use

Pesticide use

Chemical -related

illnesses

Chemical -related

illnesses

Mangrove destructionMangrove destruction

Water-related diseases

Water-related diseases

Economic development

Economic development

Population growth

Population growth

Sewage pollutionSewage pollution

Fertilizer use

Fertilizer use

Water pollutionWater pollution

Waterborne diseases

Waterborne diseases

EutrophicationEutrophication

Industrial pollutionIndustrial pollution

Health impacts of environmental and climate change in the Mekong Delta

Trigger of changeTrigger of change

Environmental driversEnvironmental drivers

Risk factorsRisk factors

Health outcomesHealth outcomes

UrbanizationUrbanization

Eg. cholera, typhoid, hepatitis A, etc.

Eg. dengue & malaria

Eg. schistosomiasis & leptospirosis

Eg. pesticide & heavy metal poisoning

Government policies

Government policies


Global Vulnerability to Disease (VyGIL) - Global Vulnerability to Disease (VyGIL) - Developing an Interactive Global Developing an Interactive Global

Vulnerability ToolVulnerability Tool• A collaborative research project between 3 UNU

institutes (UNU-IIGH, UNU-INWEH and UNU-EHS) and 13 other institutions.

• To develop an interactive GIS tool to map vulnerability indices of water-related diseases.

• A proof-of-concept study on Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia will be initiated early next year.


Thank youThank you

Source : World Health Organization. (2003). Climate change and human health – Risks and responses.

Health Impacts of Global Climate Change Jamal Hisham Hashim, PhD Professor of Environmental Health & Research Fellow International Institute for Global.

Documents

climate slide

global health change

health climate change

change of climate

global health unuiigh

iigh slide

climate change ipcc

global health weather