November 2016 Guide Western Kenya forecasts Decentralised climate information services for decision making in Western Kenya The Met Office, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and CARE Kenya have been working in collaboration to develop and deliver demand-led and decentralised services of KMD in the counties of Kakamega, Siaya, Kisumu and Trans Nzoia. As part of the project, KMD's forecasting is being streamlined to improve existing products and services and facilitate the delivery of new ones in response to demand from users in the counties. The following forecasts are samples of those developed as part of this project. Further details can be found within the following briefing notes, which link through to full proposals. Briefing note - proposal for the development of forecasts for small-scale farmers in Western Kenya Briefing note - proposal for a daily weather forecast for Kenyan fishermen on Lake Victoria Briefing note - proposal for a daily weather forecast for Western Kenya Supported by: Fund Manager: Delivery Partners:
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November 2016
Guide Western Kenya forecasts
Decentralised climate information services for
decision making in Western Kenya
The Met Office, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and CARE Kenya have
been working in collaboration to develop and deliver demand-led and decentralised
services of KMD in the counties of Kakamega, Siaya, Kisumu and Trans Nzoia.
As part of the project, KMD's forecasting is being streamlined to improve existing
products and services and facilitate the delivery of new ones in response to demand
from users in the counties. The following forecasts are samples of those developed as part of this project.
Further details can be found within the following briefing notes, which link through to
full proposals.
Briefing note - proposal for the development of forecasts for small-scale farmers in
Western Kenya
Briefing note - proposal for a daily weather forecast for Kenyan fishermen on Lake
Victoria
Briefing note - proposal for a daily weather forecast for Western Kenya
Supported by: Fund Manager: Delivery Partners:
Kenya Meteorological Department
Daily weather forecast for Western Kenya
Issued at 16:00 on Friday 14th
October 2016
Hazard warning
No hazard warnings in force. t
Period of forecast:
From:15.00 Friday 14th October
To: 06.00 Sunday 16th October
Summary Friday afternoon is expected to have
thunderstorms in Kakamega,
Kapsabet, Manga, Kisii, Kisumu and
Kericho with sunny intervals to clear
skies over all other counties.
Friday night is expected to have partly
cloudy to clear skies over all counties.
Saturday morning is expected to have
clear skies over all counties.
Saturday afternoon is expected to have
thunderstorms in Kapsabet and
Kericho with sunny intervals to clear
skies over all other counties.
Saturday night is expected to have
partly cloudy to clear skies over all
counties.
Friday and Saturday temperatures will
be normal for this time of the year.
Winds will be light across the region
and generally variable.
Friday Afternoon
Friday Night
Saturday Morning
Saturday Afternoon
Saturday Night
Bungoma
Chance of rains
21 max
Clear skies
18 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
30 max
Clear skies
18 min
Busia
Chance of rains
29 max
Partly cloudy
18 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
18 min
Eldoret
Clear skies
24 max
Clear skies
12 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
24 max
Clear skies
12 min
Homa Bay
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
20 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
20 min
Kakamega
Thunderstorms
20 max
Clear skies
16 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Clear skies
17 min
Kapsabet
Thunderstorms
25 max
Clear skies
13 min
Clear skies
Thunderstorms
23 max
Clear skies
13 min
Kericho
Thunderstorms
24 max
Clear skies
13 min
Clear skies
Thunderstorms
23 max
Partly cloudy
13 min
Kisii
Thunderstorms
27 max
Partly cloudy
17 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
28 max
Partly cloudy
17 min
Kisumu
Thunderstorms
30 max
Clear skies
21 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
30 max
Partly cloudy
21 min
Kitale
Sunny intervals
27 max
Clear skies
14 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
27 max
Clear skies
14 min
Mbale
Sunny intervals 29 max
Clear skies
18 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
29 max
Clear skies
18 min
Manga
Thunderstorms
26 max
Partly cloudy
16 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
27 max
Partly cloudy
16 min
Migori
Sunny intervals
32 max
Clear skies
20 min
Clear skies
Sunny intervals
31 max
Partly cloudy
21 min
Siaya
Sunny intervals
29 max
Partly cloudy
19 min
Clear skies
Clear skies
28 max
Partly cloudy
19 min
Key to Hazard warning colours
GGrreeeenn – No hazard warnings in force.
AAmmbbeerr - Potentially dangerous weather is expected. Be prepared.
RReedd – Dangerous and potentially life threatening weather conditions are expected. Take immediate and appropriate action to ensure your safety.
For further information, please contact:
Forecaster on duty: Saumu Shaka.
Email: [email protected], [email protected]
Kenya Meteorological Department
Daily weather forecast for fishermen on Lake Victoria
Date of issue: 15th
October 2016
Advisory to fishing craft
Green Saturday- no weather related hazard expected.
Green Sunday - no weather related hazard expected
Period covered by forecast: 09.00 Saturday 15
th to
06.00 Sunday 16th
Summary
Saturday 15th October 2016 Light Easterly winds in the Gulf of Winam
will give way to light Westerly breeze in
the afternoon. There is a high probability
of rain in the night. Visibility will be
moderate. Overnight winds in the Gulf
will be Variable.
In the open lake zone light Easterly winds
in the morning will give way to light
Westerly in the afternoon. Visibility will
be moderate. There is a chance of rain
near the Ugandan coast overnight
Sunday 16th
October 2016
Light Easterly winds in the Gulf of Winam
will give way to light Westerly breeze in
the afternoon. There is a high probability
of rain in the night. Visibility will be
moderate. Overnight winds in the Gulf
will be variable.
In the open lake zone light Easterly winds
in the morning will become westerly in
the afternoon. Visibility will be moderate.
There is a chance of rain overnight.
For further information, contact:
Vincent Sakwa – Principal marine
forecaster Lake Victoria
Mobile: +254 722 525902
Email: [email protected]
Zone 1: Gulf of Winam
Zone 2. Open Lake
Saturday 15th
October 2016 Wind
speed and
direction
Rainfall/
Cloud cover
Rainfall
distribution
Visibility Navigation
conditions
Morning
E Light wind
Sunny intervals
Good
No warnings in force
Afternoon
W Light wind
Light rain
Good
No warnings in
force
Night
Var Light wind
Light rain
Moderate
No warnings in force
Sunday 16th
October 2016
Morning E Light wind
Sunny intervals
Moderate
No warnings in force
Afternoon W Light wind
Light rain
Moderate
No warnings in force
Night Var Light wind
Light rain
Moderate
No warnings in force
Saturday 15th
October 2016 Wind
speed and
direction
Rainfall/
Cloud cover
Rainfall
distribution
Visibility Navigation
conditions
Morning
E Light wind
Sunny intervals
Good
No warnings in force
Afternoon
W Light wind
Light rain
Good
No warnings in force
Night
Var Light wind
Light rain
Moderate
No warnings in force
Sunday 16th
October 2016
Morning E Light wind
Sunny intervals
Moderate
No warnings in force
Afternoon W Light wind
Light rain
Moderate
No warnings in force
Night Var Light wind
Light rain
Moderate
No warnings in force
Kenya Meteorological Department
Weekly Weather Forecast for Busia County
Date of issue: 10th
October 2016 5pm
Period of forecast: Tuesday 11th October to Monday 17th
October 2016
Zone 1, 2, 3 and 4
Table 1: Busia Central and Teso North Forecast for next 7 days (Tuesday 11th
to Monday 17th October 2016)
Key to rainfall distribution symbols: rain likely to fall in few places (less than 33%), rain likely to
fall in many/several places (33% -67%), rain likely to fall in most places (more than 67%),
Morning: 6am to Noon; Afternoon: Noon to 6 pm; Night: 6 pm to 6 am
Table 2: Bunyala and Samia Forecast for next 7 days (Tuesday 11th to Monday
17th October 2016)
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday
Morning
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Sunny
intervals
Afternoon
Moderate
rain
Moderate rain
Light rain
Moderate rain Moderate
rain
Moderate
rain
Moderate
rain
Night
Light rain
Light rain
Partly Cloudy
partly cloudy
partly
cloudy
partly
cloudy
partly cloudy
Rainfall
distribution
Maximum
temperature 28°C 27°C 28°C 28°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
Minimum
temperature
17°C 18°C 16°C 16°C 17°C 17°C 17°C
Hazards
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday
Morning
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Sunny intervals
Afternoon
Moderate rain
Light rain
Light rain
Light rain
Light rain
Moderate rain
Light rain
Night
Light rain
cloudy
Partly Cloudy
partly cloudy
partly cloudy
partly cloudy
partly cloudy
Rainfall
distribution
Maximum
temperature
30°C 30°C 31°C 30°C 31°C 32°C 30°C
Minimum
temperature
16°C 18°C 17°C 16°C 15°C 19°C 17°C
Hazards
Key to rainfall distribution symbols: rain likely to fall in few places (less than 33%), rain likely to
fall in many/several places (33% -67%), rain likely to fall in most places (more than 67%),
Morning: 6am to Noon; Afternoon: Noon to 6 pm; Night: 6 pm to 6 am
Commentary of County weather forecaster:
A reduction in rainfall amount and area of distribution is likely over the forecast period.
Entire Busia County is likely to experience mainly sunny intervals in the mornings. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely over few places (0-33%) over the
entire forecast period.
Advice to farmers from Ministry of Agriculture: Rainfall categories
Range Category
<5 mm Light
5 - 20mm Moderate
20 - 50mm Heavy
>50mm Very heavy
For further information, please contact:
Benjamin Bahati
County Director of Meteorology
Mobile: 0722 225 268
Email: [email protected]
Kenya Meteorological Department
Monthly weather forecast for Busia County for the month of
August 2016
Date of issue: 1/8/2016
Period of forecast: 1/8/2016 to 31/8/2016
Forecast for all of Busia County (zones 1, 2, 3 and 4)
The first half of the month is likely to start dry but become wetter towards the end.
Busia Central (zone 3) and Teso North (zone 4) are likely to receive more rainfall
than the rest of the county. The onset of the rains is likely to be stormy and violent.
High wind and lightning are likely.
Temperatures during the first half of August are expected to be warmer than usual for
the time of year with afternoon highs of 300 to 320 Centigrade and night time lows of
180 to 210.
The second half of August is likely to be wetter, with rainfall on several days in most
places especially after August 20th. There could also be some thunderstorms during
this period.
Temperatures during the second half of the month should be slightly cooler and close
to the long-term average for this time of year. Afternoon highs of 260 to 280
Centigrade and night time lows of 170 to 200 are likely.
Busia central is likely to receive more rainfall than the rest of the county over many
places. Busia Central (zone 3) and Teso north (zone 4) are likely to receive total
rainfall of 100mm to 180mm in August. Samia (zone 2) is likely to receive 40mm to
90mm, Budalangi (zone 1) is likely to receive the lowest rainfall – just 30mm to 60mm
during August.
Advice to farmers from Ministry of Agriculture:
Seriously consider harvesting maize before August 10, while the weather
remains dry.
Seriously consider starting to plough your land to a fine tilth before 10th August
while the weather remains dry.
Seriously consider dry planting green grams, finger millet, sorghum,
groundnuts and Simsim (Sesame) between 10th and 15th August.
Plant sweet potatoes later once the rains have started.
If you must plant maize, seriously consider going for early maturing varieties
which can survive dry spells.
For further information, please contact:
Benjamin Bahati
County Director of Meteorology
Mobile: 0722 225 268
Email: [email protected]
Kenya Meteorological Department
Seasonal forecast for the October, November, December
2016 rainy season in Homa Bay County
Suba/Mbita, Ndhiwa/Luanda and Homa Bay/Kendu Bay
(zones 1, 2 and 4)
Onset: October 1st - 7th
Cessation: December 18th - 24th
Probable volume of rainfall: 100-250 mm. Near normal rainfall (close to or slightly lower than the
average rainfall received during the October, November and December rainy season over the last 30
years)
Probable distribution of rainfall during the rainy season: Rainfall is likely to occur irregularly in
heavy showers. Most rain is likely to fall in November.
“Normal rainfall” is the average volume of rainfall that fell during the October, November, December
rainy season in this area of the county over the past 30 years
Commentary of County Meteorological Director:
Dry spells are likely to exceed 10 days
Rainfall distribution will be irregular
Rangwe-Oyugis (zone 3) Onset: October 1
st - 7
th
Cessation: December 18th - 24
th
Probable volume of rainfall: 250 – 350 mm. Near normal rainfall (close to or slightly lower than the
average rainfall received during the October, November and December rainy season over the last 30
years)
Probable distribution of rainfall during the rainy season: Rainfall is likely to occur irregularly in
heavy showers. Most rain is likely to fall in November.
“Normal rainfall” is the average volume of rainfall that fell during the October, November, December
rainy season in this area of the county over the past 30 years
Commentary of County Meteorological Director:
Expect dry spells that last more than 10 days
Date of issue: September 12th 2016
25%
45%
30%
Probability of Rainfall scenarios
Above
Normal
Below
25%
45%
30%
Probability of Rainfall scenarios
Above
Normal
Below
For further information, please contact:
County Director of Meteorology – Paul Oloo
Mobile : 0721 624 918
Email: [email protected]
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