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GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EAST–WEST RELATIONS, 1985–1989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 ANDRÁS JOÓ PhD CORVINUS 2015
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GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

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BEGINNINGS OF NEW THINKING DECEMBER 1984 DECEMBER 1984 DELIVERED ON 18 DECEMBER, TOWARDS THE END OF HIS fiRST VISIT TO BRITAIN DELIVERED ON 18 DECEMBER, TOWARDS THE END OF HIS fiRST VISIT TO BRITAIN GORBACHEV SAID, THAT ‘COLD WAR’ WAS NOT A NORMAL CONDITION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, SINCE IT CONSTANTLY CARRIED WITHIN ITSELF A MILITARY THREAT GORBACHEV SAID, THAT ‘COLD WAR’ WAS NOT A NORMAL CONDITION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, SINCE IT CONSTANTLY CARRIED WITHIN ITSELF A MILITARY THREAT SO LONG AS ANDREI GROMYKO REMAINED FOREIGN MINISTER, GORBACHEV WAS NOT IN A POSITION TO MAKE NEW FOREIGN-POLICY PROPOSALS SO LONG AS ANDREI GROMYKO REMAINED FOREIGN MINISTER, GORBACHEV WAS NOT IN A POSITION TO MAKE NEW FOREIGN-POLICY PROPOSALS HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, A. JOÓ
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Page 1: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EAST–WEST RELATIONS, 1985–1989

NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991

ANDRÁS JOÓ PhDCORVINUS 2015

Page 2: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

EVOLUTIONARY REVOLUTION• GORBACHEV REFORMER RATHER THAN A REVOLUTIONARY• REVOLUTIONARY GOALS BY EVOLUTIONARY MEANS• EVOLVED FROM COMMUNIST REFORMER TO DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST– SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC

• HE TOLD HIS AIDE, GEORGII SHAKHNAZAROV, AS EARLY AS 1989 THAT HE FELT CLOSE TO SOCIAL DEMOCRACY

• PROGRAMMATIC STATEMENT ADOPTED BY, THE XXVIIITH CONGRESS OF THE CPSU, ‘TOWARDS A HUMANE, DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM’ IN THE SUMMER OF 1990 WAS ESSENTIALLY A SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC DOCUMENT

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 3: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

BEGINNINGS OF NEW THINKING• DECEMBER 1984• DELIVERED ON 18 DECEMBER, TOWARDS THE END OF HIS fiRST

VISIT TO BRITAIN• GORBACHEV SAID, THAT ‘COLD WAR’ WAS NOT A NORMAL

CONDITION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, SINCE IT CONSTANTLY CARRIED WITHIN ITSELF A MILITARY THREAT

• SO LONG AS ANDREI GROMYKO REMAINED FOREIGN MINISTER, GORBACHEV WAS NOT IN A POSITION TO MAKE NEW FOREIGN-POLICY PROPOSALS

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 4: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

“I like Mr Gorbachev. We can do business together”

• THE NUCLEAR AGE, HE OBSERVED, ‘INESCAPABLY DICTATES NEW POLITICAL THINKING’

• GORBACHEV’S WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE IN REAL ARGUMENT, RATHER THAN SIMPLY REPEAT SOVIET DOGMA

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 5: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

GORBACHEV• THE PROBLEMS IN US-SOVIET

RELATIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 1980S WERE INTENSIFIED BECAUSE OF THE DEATHS IN QUICK SUCCESSION OF THREE SOVIET LEADERS – BREZHNEV IN NOVEMBER 1982, YURY ANDROPOV IN FEBRUARY 1984, AND KONSTANTINE CHERNENKO IN MARCH 1985

• MIKHAIL GORBACHEV WAS READY TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE IN THE COLD WAR

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 6: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 7: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

GORBACHEV IN POWER• GORBACHEV BECAME GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE CENTRAL

COMMITTEE OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE SOVIET UNION (CPSU) ON 11 MARCH 1985, ONE DAY AFTER THE DEATH OF CHERNENKO

• ELECTED UNANIMOUSLY BY THE POLITBURO AND THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE

• UNINTENDED AS WELL AS INTENDED CONSEQUENCES

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

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NIKOLAI RYZHKOV• REFORMISM WAS ESSENTIALLY TECHNOCRATIC• IN SEPTEMBER 1985 HE BECAME PREMIER (THAT IS, CHAIRMAN OF THE

COUNCIL OF MINISTERS) OF THE SOVIET UNION

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 9: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

NEW FOREIGN POLICY

• MOST IMPORTANT FOREIGN POLICY-MAKER IN THE SOVIET UNION HAD TRADITIONALLY BEEN THE GENERAL SECRETARY

• GROMYKO, WHO HAD BEEN FOREIGN MINISTER SINCE 1957, HAD GAINED VAST AUTHORITY

• GORBACHEV REPLACED GROMYKO BY EDUARD SHEVARDNADZE IN THE SUMMER OF 1985

• SHEVARNADZE HAD NO FP EXPERIENCE

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 10: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

GROMYKO• GROMYKO HAD BEEN

CONTENT TO MOVE TO THE HONORIFIC POST OF CHAIRMAN OF THE PRESIDIUM OF THE SUPREME SOVIET – THE FORMAL HEADSHIP OF THE SOVIET STATE

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

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DOBRYNIN AS HEAD OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEPARTMENT

• INTERNATIONAL DEPARTMENT OF THE CPSU CENTRAL COMMITTEE

• MARCH 1986• ANATOLII DOBRYNIN WHO HAD SPENT

TWENTY-FOUR YEARS AS SOVIET AMBASSADOR TO WASHINGTON

• LITTLE OR NO INTEREST IN NON-RULING COMMUNIST PARTIES OR IN SUPPORTING REVOLUTIONARIES IN THE THIRD WORLD

http://www.ovguide.com/anatoly-dobrynin-9202a8c04000641f8000000000675015HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

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CHERNYAEV FP HELPER – GORBACHEV’S ALTER EGO

• ANATOLY CHERNYAEV• NEW FOREIGN-POLICY AIDE• CHERNIAEV EPITOMISED NEW

THINKING IN FOREIGN POLICY AND WAS TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT PART IN THE DRAFTING OF GORBACHEV’S SPEECHES

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 13: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

ALEKSANDR IAKOVLEV THE "GODFATHER OF GLASNOST"

• 1983–85, HE WAS AN INFORMAL ADVISER OF GORBACHEV

• FIRST SOVIET POLITICIAN TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE EXISTENCE OF THE SECRET PROTOCOLS OF THE 1939 RIBBENTROP-MOLOTOV PACT WITH NAZI GERMANY IN 1989– 1988, HIS FOREIGN-POLICY ROLE WAS

INSTITUTIONALISED; HE BECAME THE SECRETARY OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE OVERSEEING INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

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INTERNAL REFORM IN THE USSR AND NUCLEAR AFFAIRS

• THE HEART OF HIS POLICIES WAS GLASNOST (OPEN DEBATE ON GOVERNMENT POLICIES) AND PERESTROIKA (ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING)

• GORBACHEV WANTED TO END THE COLD WAR AND DEMOCRATIC RENEWAL IN THE SOVIET UNION

• GORBACHEV FOCUSED FIRST ON ARMS CONTROL• THOUGHT THAT A LIMITED NUMBER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

PROVIDED SUFFICIENT SECURITY AGAINST US NUCLEAR ATTACK

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 15: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH JETTISONED

• GORBACHEV UNDERSTOOD THE CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR CONFLICT, INCLUDING GLOBAL WINTER

• POSSIBILITY OF AN ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR EXCHANGE• THINK BEYOND ESTABLISHED DOCTRINE• CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT IN 1986“I believe there can only be one policy for preserving our precious civilization in this modern age: a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought,” REAGAN DECLARED IN JAPAN ON NOVEMBER 11, 1983

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 16: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

SOME CHRONOLOGY• APRIL 1985: – TO SHOW HIS GOOD WILL GORBACHEV SUSPENDED THE COUNTERMEASURES

APPLIED IN RESPONSE TO THE NATO DEPLOYMENTS AND HALTED FURTHER DEPLOYMENT OF SS 20S

• NOVEMBER 1985: – GORBACHEV AND REAGAN MET IN GENEVA AND ESTABLISHED GOOD

PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP• JANUARY 1986: – GORBACHEV UNVEILED A PLAN FOR COMPLETE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT TO

TAKE PLACE IN THREE STAGES BY THE YEAR 2000• STAGE ONE PROPOSED THAT THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET

UNION REDUCE THEIR INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES TO ZERO, AND DID NOT MENTION BRITISH, FRENCH, AND CHINESE FORCES

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 17: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

NEW AND RADICAL APPROACHES TO DISARMAMENT

• OCTOBER 1986 REYKJAVIK SUMMIT• REAGAN REVEALED AT REYKJAVIK THAT HE WAS PREPARED TO

ACCEPT GORBACHEV’S PLAN TO ELIMINATE ALL STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ARMS WITHIN TEN YEARS

• TRUST HAD TO BE DEVELOPED• SHIFT THE FOCUS OF SUPERPOWER RELATIONS AWAY FROM ARMS

CONTROL AND TO AIM INSTEAD TO MAKE PROGRESS IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS HUMAN RIGHTS, REGIONAL CONflICTS

• SOVIETS DID NOT LIKE IT FIRSTHISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

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MAIN SOVIET DÉTENTE AIMS AND AMERICAN VIEWS

• REDUCTION OF COSTS• CONCERNS AND SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE VIABILITY OF

REFORMS IN THE USSR• PRESIDENT AND HIS ADVISERS HOPED PERESTROIKA WOULD

LEAD TO A GRADUAL DEMOCRATIZATION • RAPID PACE OF EVENTS WAS SURPRISING IN 1988-89• AVOID EMBARRASSING GORBY– LITHUANIA

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 19: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

SDI REMAINED A PROBLEM

• IF SDI COULD DEFEND AGAINST 1,000 MISSILES, THEN THE SOVIETS SHOULD PRODUCE 1,500 MISSILES?

• OFFERED TO SHARE SDI TECHNOLOGY WITH THE SOVIETS • KREMLIN FOUND THESE ARGUMENTS UNCONVINCING• Gorbachev decided to shift emphasis away from the program• SOVIETS CONCLUDED SDI WAS NOT FEASIBLE BASED ON

STUDIES

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 20: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

TREATY ELIMINATING INTERMEDIATE-RANGE MISSILES

• FOCUS ON A TREATY ELIMINATING INTERMEDIATE-RANGE MISSILES

• THIS SHIFT PAVED THE WAY FOR SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN ARMS CONTROL

• LANDMARK INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES (INF) TREATY OF 1987

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 21: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

• IN 1987 A WEST GERMAN TEENAGER SHOCKED THE WORLD, BY FLYING THROUGH SOVIET AIR DEFENCES TO LAND A CESSNA AEROPLANE IN RED SQUARE

• MATHIAS RUST, JUST 19, HAD FLOWN MORE THAN 500 MILES (750KM) THROUGH EVERY SOVIET DEFENSIVE SHIELD IN A SINGLE-ENGINE PLANE TO LAND AT THE GATES OF THE KREMLIN

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20609795HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

Page 22: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

NEW COURSE CONTINUES• GORBACHEV USED THE OPPORTUNITY TO BERATE THE MILITARY

LEADERSHIP– THE COUNTRY REMAINED REMARKABLY STABLE

• GORBACHEV WAS DETERMINED THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO MORE SOVIET INVASIONS – AS OF HUNGARY IN 1956 AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA IN 1968

• AS EARLY AS HIS MEETINGS WITH THE EAST EUROPEAN COMMUNIST LEADERS AT CHERNENKO’S FUNERAL – IN THE FUTURE THEIR RELATIONS SHOULD BE BASED ON EQUALITY– THE BREZHNEV DOCTRINE OF LIMITED SOVEREIGNTY WAS AT AN END

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 23: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

END OF THE BREZHNEV DOCTRINE • NEED FOR THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG ‘SOCIALIST’

COUNTRIES TO BE VOLUNTARY AND BASED ON EQUALITY• MAJOR SPEECH TO THE NINETEENTH CONFERENCE OF THE

CPSU IN THE SUMMER OF 1988, HE EMPHASIZED EACH COUNTRY’S RIGHT TO CHOOSE ITS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM

• SOVIET ARMED FORCES CUT BY HALF A MILLION MEN, INCLUDING SUBSTANTIAL TROOP WITHDRAWALS FROM EASTERN EUROPE

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 24: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

‘Comrade Karmal,...Soviet forces are not able to remain in Afghanistan for ever.’

• ‘You, Comrade Karmal, naturally, understand ...that Soviet forces are not able to remain in Afghanistan for ever.’

• END OF THE SOVIET MILITARY PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN WAS CLOSE

• GORBACHEV CONCLUDED IN OCTOBER 1985, AT A POLITBURO DISCUSSION: ‘With or without Karmal we will follow this line firmly, which must in a minimally short amount of time lead to our withdrawal from Afghanistan.’

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 25: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

A LONG WAY TO WITHDRAWAL

• GETTING SOVIET TROOPS OUT OF AFGHANISTAN TOOK SUBSTANTIALLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED

• GORBACHEV WAS SEEKING AN INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENT

• AN OUTCOME THAT WOULD LEAVE AFGHANISTAN IN THE HANDS OF PEOPLE FAR MORE HOSTILE TO THE SOVIET UNION

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 26: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

ANDREI SAKHAROV• FATHER OF THE SOVIET HYDROGEN BOMB,

– CONTRIBUTED MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE TO THE MILITARY MIGHT OF THE USSR (WORKED ON TSAR BOMBA)

• GRADUALLY BECAME ONE OF THE REGIME'S MOST COURAGEOUS CRITICS

• PROTESTED AGAINST 1979 SOVIET INTERVENTION IN AFGHANISTAN

• SOVIET POLITBURO DID NOT DARE TO ARREST HIM• INSTEAD THEY DECIDED TO EXILE HIM TO GORKY, A

MAJOR CITY ON THE VOLGA RIVER

• CALL FROM GORBACHEV IN DECEMBER 1986 TO TELL HIM HE WAS NOW FREE TO RETURN FROM HIS EXILE

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 27: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

SAKHAROV MET TELLER IN 1988ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE SYSTEM, INCLUDING SDI, WAS DOOMED TO FAILURE

‘EXPENSIVE AND INEFFECTIVE’

AS SAKHAROV NOTED: ‘Two weeks after the forum, the USSR renounced the package principle for intermediate range missiles, and soon thereafter proposed the elimination of shorter-range missiles.’

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 28: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

THE INFLUENCE OF PEOPLE IN THE BACKGROUND

• CHERNIAEV, EVEN BEFORE THE REYKJAVIK SUMMIT, HAD URGED GORBACHEV NOT TO MAKE DEEP REDUCTIONS IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS ‘CONDITIONAL ON A SPACE AGREEMENT’

• DEVIATED FROM SOVIET ORTHODOXY AND EMPHASISED GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE

• ROLE OF ADVISORY BOARDS, POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AND THINK TANKS• GEORGII ARBATOV OF THE INSTITUTE OF THE UNITED STATES AND

CANADA• INSTITUTCHIKI AND MEZHDUNARODNIKI (SPECIALISTS IN RESEARCH

INSTITUTES AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SPECIALISTS)HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

Page 29: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

WHAT INFLUENCED GORBACHEV• GORBACHEV’S ‘A PRIORI FAITH IN THE

ADVANTAGES OF SOCIALIST OVER BOURGEOIS DEMOCRACY WAS SHAKEN’ IN THE 1970S, AS HE HIMSELF WROTE

• FUNERAL OF ENRICO BERLINGUER MADE A STRONG IMPRESSION ON GORBACHEV IN JUNE 1984

• ‘was a manifestation of a way of thinking not characteristic for us and of a different political culture.’

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

Page 30: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

GORBY’S FLEXIBILITY IN NEGOTIATIONS• POLITBURO AGREED ON 28 FEBRUARY 1987 TO

DECOUPLE SDI FROM THE ISSUE OF REMOVING INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR MISSILES FROM EUROPE

• INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES (INF) TREATY ON 8 DECEMBER 1987

• IT INCORPORATED REAGAN’S ‘ZERO OPTION’ OF THE EARLY 1980s

• REMOVAL OF SOVIET MISSILES ALREADY DEPLOYED AS WELL AS THE NON-DEPLOYMENT OR REMOVAL OF PERSHING AND CRUISE MISSILES

• INCLUDING SS-23 “Oka”HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

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INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES (INF) TREATY

• USSR ALSO ENTERED INTO AGREEMENTS WITH THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY (FRG, WEST GERMANY) TO DESTROY PERSHING SYSTEMS UNDER GERMAN CONTROL

• THE SOVIETS GUARANTEED THE DESTRUCTION OF TREATY-RELATED ITEMS IN USE BY THEIR WARSAW PACT ALLIES

• TREATY STIPULATED ON-SITE INSPECTION AND VERIFICATION PROCEDURES• BENCHMARK FOR ALL FUTURE ARMS-REDUCTION TREATIES IN REGARD TO

INSPECTION– ON 15 JANUARY 1988 THE UNITED STATES ESTABLISHED THE ON-SITE INSPECTION

AGENCY (OSIA), WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONDUCTING INSPECTIONS OF SOVIET MISSILE SITES AND ESCORTING RUSSIAN INSPECTORS TO U.S. AND EUROPEAN SITES

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

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GORBACHEV – REAGAN SUMMIT IN MOSCOW FROM 29 MAY TO 2 JUNE 1988

‘No, I was talking about another time, another era.’ SPOKESMAN OF THE SOVIET MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS WAS ABLE TO ANNOUNCE:

‘We buried the Cold War at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea.’HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

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GORBACHEV – REAGAN SUMMIT IN MOSCOW FROM 29 MAY TO 2 JUNE 1988

• THE MEETING WAS CAREFULLY CRAFTED TO FOCUS ON THE INF TREATY• THE TREATY CALLED FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF 2,611 INTERMEDIATE-

RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES (IRBMS) WITH flIGHT RANGES OF 300–3,400 MILES. INCLUDED IN THE TREATY WERE U.S. PERSHING II MISSILES AND GROUND-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES AS WELL AS SOVIET SS-4, SS-12, SS-20, AND SS-23 MISSILES

• GORBACHEV SURPRISED THE AMERICAN DELEGATION ON THE fiRST EVENING BY HANDING REAGAN A PROPOSED JOINT DECLARATION REGARDING PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE, WHICH REAGAN DECLINED

Page 34: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

END OF SOVIET DOMINATION OVER EASTERN EUROPE

• SOVIET BEHAVIOR IN 1989 IN EASTERN EUROPE WAS THE DEFINITIVE REALITY CHECK OF THE “NEW THINKING” IN SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY

• FRAGILITY OF THE COMMUNIST REGIMES• SOVIET DOMINATION OF EASTERN EUROPE UNTIL SOME

INDETERMINATE FUTURE TIME • EACH REVOLUTION HAD SPECIFIC NATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

Page 35: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

THE TWO

• TWO CLEAR THRESHOLDS THAT EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES COULD NOT CROSS

• ENDING THE DICTATORSHIP OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY• OR: WITHDRAWAL FROM THE WARSAW PACT• CZECHOSLOVAK LEADERS OF 1968 HAD CAREFULLY TRIED TO

AVOID THESE TWO PITFALLS – IN VAIN• WITH GORBY THERE WAS ROOM FOR GREATER

EXPERIMENTATION

Page 36: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

THE CASE OF POLAND

• FIRST INDEPENDENT TRADE UNION IN THE COMMUNIST WORLD: SOLIDARITY

• LECH WAŁESA, FORMALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE LEADING ROLE OF THE COMMUNISTS, THE POLISH UNITED WORKERS’PARTY (PUWP), IN STATE AFFAIRS

• NEW MODEL OF REFORMED SOCIALISM?• IN A MATTER OF MONTHS, SOLIDARITY MEMBERSHIP SURGED

TO 10 MILLION

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THE CASE OF POLAND

• SOVIET LEADERS WERE EXTREMELY HOSTILE TO SOLIDARITY• SOVIET LEADERS WERE HIGHLY RELUCTANT TO RESORT TO DIRECT

MILITARY ACTION• ACCORDING TO EVIDENCE THAT BECAME AVAILABLE AFTER THE COLLAPSE

OF THE SOVIET UNION, MOSCOW WOULD HAVE BEEN PREPARED TO LIVE WITH THE FAILURE OF THE POLISH REGIME RATHER THAN FACE THE CONSEQUENCES OF AN INTERVENTION

• SOLIDARITY’S LEADERS WERE STUNNED BY JARUZELSKI’S MILITARY COUP OF DECEMBER 13, 1981. THE GENERAL IMPOSED ORDER OVER A PERIOD OF THREE DAYS, ARRESTED SOLIDARITY’S LEADERS AND ACTIVISTS

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ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

• WHAT ALL THE REGIMES HAD TO FEAR WAS SOCIAL UNREST• ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES SLOWED IN ALL THE COUNTRIES

OF THE AREA, FROM AN AVERAGE OF 4.2% IN1975, TO1.4% IN1980, AND 1.0% IN1985

• IN 1987, IT WAS 0.2%• THE PROBLEM AFFLICTED BOTH CONSERVATIVE AND

REFORMIST REGIMES• HARD-CURRENCY DEBTS TO THE WEST KEPT INCREASING

Page 39: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

DIVIDE IN THE EASTERN BLOC

• POLAND AND HUNGARY, WHERE FOR MANY YEARS THERE HAD BEEN A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF TOLERANCE FOR DEBATE

• IN POLAND AND HUNGARY, THE REGIMES WERE PREPARED TO ACCEPT THE CHALLENGES OF NEW ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS AND EXPERIMENTS IN DEMOCRATIZATION

• IN EAST GERMANY, CZECHOSLOVAKIA, BULGARIA, ROMANIA THE SITUATION WAS DIFFERENT

• DEEPENING DIVIDE

Page 40: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

ROUNDTABLE NEGOTIATIONS• ROUNDTABLE NEGOTIATIONS WITH SOLIDARITY• ADDRESS THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND TO LIMIT NEGATIVE PUBLIC

REACTION• FEBRUARY 6, 1989, ALL ISSUES WERE ON THE TABLE EXCEPT FOREIGN

POLICY• APRIL 7, 1989, THE ROUNDTABLE AGREEMENTS SIGNED– SOLIDARITY WAS RECOGNIZED NOT ONLY AS A TRADE UNION, BUT ALSO AS A

LEGITIMATE POLITICAL OPPOSITION FORCE– OPPOSITION WOULD COMPETE FOR 35% OF THE 460 SEATS IN THE DIET WHILE

THE OTHER 65% WOULD BE LEFT UNOPPOSED TO THE PUWP AND ITS SATELLITEs

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MOSCOW FAVOURS THE POLISH SOLUTION

• WHILE GORBACHEV WAS NOT PREPARED TO ACCEPT A MULTIPARTY SYSTEM FOR THE USSR

• THE POLISH AGREEMENTS SEEMED TO BE A BEST-CASE SCENARIO FOR EASTERN EUROPE

• DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS LOOKED GENUINE AND CREDIBLE ENOUGH

Page 42: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

THE POLISH SCENARIO• SOLIDARITY’S CIVIC COMMITTEE WON 92 OF THE 100 SEATS IN

THE SENATE• MISERABLE PERFORMANCE OF THE PUWP AND ITS ALLIES IN

THE COMPETITION FOR THE DIET SEATS RESERVED FOR THEM• DELEGITIMIZATION OF THE SYSTEM• GORBACHEV SPOKE TO THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE ON JULY 7

AND MADE A MOST EXPLICIT REPUDIATION OF THE BREZHNEV DOCTRINE

Page 43: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

“Your president, our prime minister.”

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THE HUNGARIAN SCENARIO

• KÁDÁR’S LONG TENURE WAS DESTABILIZED BY GORBACHEV’S RISE TO POWER IN MOSCOW

• GORBACHEV’SREFORMS OPENED NEW HORIZONS• MAY 1988 - KÁDÁR FORCED TO RESIGN THE PARTY LEADERSHIP• REEXAMINING THE 1956 INSURRECTION• DENUNCIATION OF SOVIET BEHAVIOR ON A MAJOR ISSUE• NO OFFICIAL SOVIET REACTION

Page 45: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

THE HUNGARIAN SCENARIO• HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION PARTIES LET IT BE KNOWN THAT THEY

WOULD ACCEPT NOTHING LESS THAN GENUINE COMPETITION AND FREE ELECTIONS

• JUNE 21, HUNGARY FORMALLY OPENED ITS OWN NATIONAL ROUNDTABLE

• RELIABLE POLLS FORECASTING 35 TO 40% SUPPORT FOR THE HSWP• ARBITER OF THE POLITICAL GAME FOR YEARS TO COME (?)• GORBY AND SOVIET REFORMERS VIEWED THE HUNGARIAN

DEVELOPMENTS WITH SYMPATHY

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HUNGARIAN PM GRÓSZ VISITS US, JULY 1988

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PROBLEMS OF ETHNICITY AND BORDERS

Page 48: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

AN ANTAGONISM INSIDE THE EASTERN BLOC

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ANNUS MIRABILIS• FEBRUARY - APRIL:

– ROUNDTABLE TALKS BETWEEN THE POLISH COMMUNIST PARTY AND THE SOLIDARITY PROTEST MOVEMENT

• MARCH: ABOUT 80,000 DEMONSTRATORS GATHER IN

BUDAPEST TO CALL FOR DEMOCRACY OPPOSITION ROUNDTABLE IS FORMED IN HUNGARY

• • 4 AND 18 JUNE: IN POLISH SEMI-FREE ELECTIONS SOLIDARITY

WIN 99 OF 100 SEATS IN THE SENATE AND ALL 161 SEJM SEATS ALLOTTED TO SOLIDARITY

• 27 JUNE: AUSTRIAN AND HUNGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS CUT THROUGH THE BORDER FENCE ON THE BORDER BETWEEN AUSTRIA AND HUNGARY

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OTTO HABSBURG IN HUNGARY, FEBRUARY 1989 • 19 AUGUST: SYMBOLIC

OPENING OF THE BORDER BETWEEN AUSTRIA AND HUNGARY FOR THREE HOURS FOR A "PAN-EUROPEAN PICNIC"

Page 51: GORBACHEV AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EASTWEST RELATIONS, 19851989 NEW THINKING, GLASNOST, PERESTROIKA AND THE GREAT CHANGES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,

DEMOCRACY AND THE END OF THE IRON CURTAIN

• 23 AUGUST: "BALTIC CHAIN": TWO MILLION PEOPLE JOIN THEIR HANDS TO FORM A 600-KILOMETER LONG HUMAN CHAIN ACROSS ESTONIA, LATVIA AND LITHUANIA TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE FATE OF THE BALTIC COUNTRIES AND TO MARK THE 50TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE MOLOTOV-RIBBENTROP PACT BETWEEN GERMANY AND THE SOVIET UNION, WHICH LED TO THE OCCUPATION OF THE THREE STATES

• • 24 AUGUST: SOLIDARITY'S TADEUSZ MAZOWIECKI BECOMES POLISH PM AFTER THE COMMUNIST

CANDIDATE IS UNABLE TO FORM A CABINET– THE FIRST NON-COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT IN COMMUNIST EUROPE IS FORMED.

• • 11 SEPTEMBER: • HUNGARIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES THAT EAST GERMAN REFUGEES WOULD NOT BE REPATRIATED

BUT INSTEAD BE ALLOWED TO TRAVEL TO THE WEST. 13.000 EAST GERMAN REFUGEES LEAVE THROUGH HUNGARY TO AUSTRIA AND THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY.

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STEPS TOWARDS REMOVING THE WALL• 11 SEPTEMBER: HUNGARIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES THAT EAST GERMAN

REFUGEES WOULD NOT BE REPATRIATED BUT INSTEAD BE ALLOWED TO TRAVEL TO THE WEST. 13.000 EAST GERMAN REFUGEES LEAVE THROUGH HUNGARY TO AUSTRIA AND THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

• 9 OCTOBER: OVER 70,000 PEOPLE DEMONSTRATE IN THE EASTERN EUROPEAN CITY OF LEIPZIG CHANTING "WIR SIND DAS VOLK" (WE ARE THE PEOPLE).

• 18 OCTOBER: ERICH HONECKER RESIGNS IN EAST GERMANY

• 4 NOVEMBER: OVER 1 MILLION PEOPLE GATHER FOR A DEMONSTRATION ON EAST BERLIN'S ALEXANDERPLATZ