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Overview of Capital Markets Overview of Capital Markets
25

Goldman Sachs Presentation

Nov 01, 2014

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Page 1: Goldman Sachs Presentation

Overview of Capital MarketsOverview of Capital Markets

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Presentation

2

Topics to AddressTopics to Address

I.I. PurposePurpose

II.II. Players/InstrumentsPlayers/Instruments

III.III. Recent Events/Trends in Capital MarketsRecent Events/Trends in Capital Markets

A.A. Equity Capital MarketsEquity Capital Markets

B.B. Credit MarketsCredit Markets

Page 3: Goldman Sachs Presentation

I. PurposeI. Purpose

Page 4: Goldman Sachs Presentation

4

Purpose of Capital MarketsPurpose of Capital Markets

Efficient Allocation of CapitalEfficient Allocation of Capital

Diversification of RiskDiversification of Risk

Catalyst for Productive Economic GrowthCatalyst for Productive Economic Growth

Page 5: Goldman Sachs Presentation

II. Players/InstrumentsII. Players/Instruments

Page 6: Goldman Sachs Presentation

6

Issuer (MFI) UnderwriterExchange

Investor RegulatorRating Agency

Key Players in a Capital Markets TransactionsKey Players in a Capital Markets Transactions

Page 7: Goldman Sachs Presentation

7

Intermediaries Facilitate Capital FlowsIntermediaries Facilitate Capital Flows

Institutions Seeking Capital

Intermediaries Facilitating the Flow of Capital

Financing &Advisory

(Investment Banking)

Investors withCapital

Pension Funds Mutual Funds Endowments & Foundations Insurance Companies Private Equity Funds Hedge Funds

Institutional Investors

Debt Capital Markets

EquityCapitalMarkets

Investment Research

Principal Investing (Merchant Banking)

Investment Management

Sales &

Trading

Public Companies

Private Companies &

Funds

Governments & Agencies

High Net Worth Small Ticket Retail

Retail Investors

Governments & Agencies

Page 8: Goldman Sachs Presentation

8

A legal entity that develops, registers and sells securities for the purpose of financing its operationsA legal entity that develops, registers and sells securities for the purpose of financing its operations

Issuers are legally responsible for the obligations of the issue and for reporting financial conditions, Issuers are legally responsible for the obligations of the issue and for reporting financial conditions, material developments and any other operational activities as required by the regulations of their material developments and any other operational activities as required by the regulations of their jurisdictionsjurisdictions

The most common types of securities issued are bonds (notes, debentures, bills) and common The most common types of securities issued are bonds (notes, debentures, bills) and common stocksstocks

A company or other entity (investment bank, commercial bank or other financial institution) A company or other entity (investment bank, commercial bank or other financial institution) that administers the issuance and distribution of securities from a corporation or other issuerthat administers the issuance and distribution of securities from a corporation or other issuer

An underwriter works closely with the issuer to determine the offering price of the securities, buys An underwriter works closely with the issuer to determine the offering price of the securities, buys them from the issuer, and sells them to investors viathem from the issuer, and sells them to investors via the the underwriter's distribution network underwriter's distribution network

A company that assesses the credit-worthiness of corporations and countries and assigns credit A company that assesses the credit-worthiness of corporations and countries and assigns credit ratings. This company also provides a transaction rating of the finance structureratings. This company also provides a transaction rating of the finance structure

The credit rating is a financial indicator to potential investors of debt securities such as bondsThe credit rating is a financial indicator to potential investors of debt securities such as bonds

An exchange organization which provides facilities for brokers to trade company stocks and other An exchange organization which provides facilities for brokers to trade company stocks and other securities securities

Exchanges also provide facilities for the issue and redemption of securities, as well as other Exchanges also provide facilities for the issue and redemption of securities, as well as other financial instruments and capital events including the payment of income and dividendsfinancial instruments and capital events including the payment of income and dividends

Banks, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Companies, Asset Managers, Governments, and Banks, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Companies, Asset Managers, Governments, and Individual InvestorsIndividual Investors

A regulator provides supervision which subjects financial institutions and issuers to certain A regulator provides supervision which subjects financial institutions and issuers to certain requirements, restrictions and guidelines that aim to maintain the integrity of the financial systemrequirements, restrictions and guidelines that aim to maintain the integrity of the financial system

Underwriter

Rating Agency

Exchange

Investors

Issuer

Key Players in Capital Markets TransactionsKey Players in Capital Markets Transactions

Regulator

Page 9: Goldman Sachs Presentation

9

Capital Markets Instruments DefinedCapital Markets Instruments Defined

VehiclesVehicles DefinitionsDefinitions

StocksStocks Shares of ownership in a companyShares of ownership in a company

Money MarketsMoney Markets Short-term debt issued by corporations or governmentsShort-term debt issued by corporations or governments

TreasuriesTreasuries Debt issued by a government (US, France Germany,…)Debt issued by a government (US, France Germany,…)

Corporate DebtCorporate Debt Debt issued by corporationsDebt issued by corporations

Asset BackedAsset Backed Debt created by an underlying pool of assets, such as mortgagesDebt created by an underlying pool of assets, such as mortgages

Municipal SecuritiesMunicipal Securities Debt issued by state and city governmentsDebt issued by state and city governments

DerivativesDerivatives Contract whose value depends on the fluctuations in price by another asset, such as Contract whose value depends on the fluctuations in price by another asset, such as stocks, currencies, commodities, or interest ratesstocks, currencies, commodities, or interest rates

CDSCDS Credit default swap: Form of derivative offering protection against credit risk (e.g. Credit default swap: Form of derivative offering protection against credit risk (e.g. bankruptcy) of a specific partybankruptcy) of a specific party

Mutual Funds / SICAVMutual Funds / SICAV Shares in a portfolio of stocks and/or bonds and other securitiesShares in a portfolio of stocks and/or bonds and other securities

Hedge FundsHedge Funds Shares in a portfolio that actively buys and sells stocks, bonds, and other Shares in a portfolio that actively buys and sells stocks, bonds, and other investments investments

Private Equity FundsPrivate Equity Funds Shares in a portfolio that buys stakes in privately held companies Shares in a portfolio that buys stakes in privately held companies

DebtDebt

Page 10: Goldman Sachs Presentation

III. Recent Events/Trends in III. Recent Events/Trends in Capital MarketsCapital Markets

Page 11: Goldman Sachs Presentation

11

October 2007October 2007

“German stock market boom shows no signs of fizzling” Reuters, 25-May-2007

“We are now into year five of the bull market

with European equities around 150 per cent

higher than at their 2003 trough”

The Independent, 12-May-2007

“Although the US housing market is

slowing, this should accelerate interest rate

cuts stimulating other sectors”

Investment Week, 02-Apr-2007

“Some think the bubble will deflate gently

rather than burst, while others continue to

question whether the housing boom is, in

fact, a bubble at all”CFO Magazine, 1-May-2007“The market’s enthusiasm for the riskiest,

most cyclical areas of the market is

reflected in the outperformance of these

kinds of stocks when compared with

businesses with stable earnings and

reliable dividends, Dresdner said”

The Daily Telegraph, 06-Jul-2007

“LBO boom pushes European names to the top of trading list”Euroweek, 08-Jun-2007

“Still volatile but more resilient”

Thomson Reuters, 11-Aug-2007

“Despite credit worries league tables show a market in exceptionally good health”Thomson Reuters, 07-Jul-2007

Page 12: Goldman Sachs Presentation

12

November 2008November 2008

“The most severe global financial

catastrophe since the Great

Depression…”Australian Financial Review, 15-Aug-2008

“Probably the biggest financial crisis of all time…”

The Spectator, 01-Nov-2008

“Freefall Friday: Just when we think it can’t get any worse, it does” The Sun – 10-Oct-2008

“Soros: world faces worst finance crisis

since WW2”

Reuters News, 21-Jan-2008

“Fresh repricing on way. Senior bondholders have been exposed to massive losses for the first time during this credit crisis by the Lehman collapse, and the level of risk premium demanded for such instruments is expected to surge”

Thomson Reuters, 20-Sep-2008

“Numbers confirm new-issue slowdown”

Thomson Reuters, 04-Oct-2008

Page 13: Goldman Sachs Presentation

A. Equity Capital MarketsA. Equity Capital Markets

Page 14: Goldman Sachs Presentation

14

Current Equity Market Focus Has Shifted from Current Equity Market Focus Has Shifted from Financial Risk to Macroeconomic RiskFinancial Risk to Macroeconomic Risk

Performance in the Last 12 MonthsPerformance in the Last 12 Months

Source: Bloomberg as of 25-Nov-2008(a) TED-spread is the difference between the 3m Libor and 3m T-Bills.

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

DJ Stoxx 600 FTSE 100 CAC 40 Nikkei 225 S&P 500

US growth deterioration Financials writedowns

Inflation concerns Oil price rally and subsequent easing Weakening consumer spending

Fed emergency 75bps cut

Banks writedowns and capital raisings Bear Stearns collapse Increased fears of financial meltdown Co-ordinated liquidity measures Intense pick-up in volatility

Easing inflation expectations Mounting concerns over Euroland and UK growth

Coordinated rate cuts UK and EU banks bailout Treasury ss$250bn recap plan VW / P orsche situation

(44.1)%

(40.5)%

(44.4)%

(41.9)%

(33.4)%

Aug-2008

Oct-2008

J un/J ul-2008

Dec/J an-2007

J an/Feb-2008

Mar-2008

Nov-2007 J an-2008 Mar-2008 May-2008 J ul-2008 Sep-2008 Nov-2008

Sep-2008 US GSEs taken into conservatorship Lehman / Merrill Lynch AIG's $85bn bailout by Fed Massive surge in volatility Breakdown in confidence JP Morgan acquires WaMu Fortis, Glitnir, Dexia B&B and Hypo Real Estate bailed out by governments Wells Fargo acquires Wachovia Revised TARP passed

Page 15: Goldman Sachs Presentation

15

No Place to Hide: Where Have the “Defensive No Place to Hide: Where Have the “Defensive Sectors” Gone?Sectors” Gone?

Source: Bloomberg. Analysis based on DJ Stoxx 600 Sector Indices; data as of 26-Nov-2008Source: Bloomberg. Analysis based on DJ Stoxx 600 Sector Indices; data as of 26-Nov-2008

European Sector PerformanceEuropean Sector Performance Key ThemesKey Themes

““Cash is king” as it cushions cyclicality Cash is king” as it cushions cyclicality and allows opportunistic investmentsand allows opportunistic investments

Scepticism over analysts models: buy-Scepticism over analysts models: buy-side more realistic than sell-side?side more realistic than sell-side?

Strength of end-markets more important Strength of end-markets more important than bottom-up analysisthan bottom-up analysis

Floors on value becoming lessFloors on value becoming lessclear – doubts over earnings, dividend clear – doubts over earnings, dividend policy and book valuepolicy and book value

Leveraged companies underLeveraged companies underpressure – refinancing riskpressure – refinancing risk

Large-cap companies less-exposed – (a) Large-cap companies less-exposed – (a) more liquid; (b) more defensive; (c) less more liquid; (b) more defensive; (c) less Europe-centricEurope-centric

International exposure debate – which International exposure debate – which geographies are best?geographies are best?

Commodities and Energy Markets Commodities and Energy Markets swinging negative? Oil driving wider swinging negative? Oil driving wider market?market?

11

22

33

44

55

66

77

88

Since H2 2008Since H2 2008H1 2008H1 2008Since July 2007Since July 2007

HealthcareHealthcare

Food & BevFood & Bev

TelecomTelecom

UtilitiesUtilities

Pers& HsHold GdsPers& HsHold Gds

Oil&GasOil&Gas

Auto&PartsAuto&Parts

RetailRetail

TechTech

Ind GdsInd Gds

Real EstarteReal Estarte

Trv&LsrTrv&Lsr

InsuranceInsurance

Cns&MatCns&Mat

Bas ResBas Res

BanksBanks

ChemicalsChemicals

MediaMedia

Fin SvcsFin Svcs

(27.4)%

(29.1)%

(29.6)%

(33.9)%

(41.2)%

(38.0)%

(47.0)%

(49.1)%

(53.4)%

(53.8)%

(64.5)%

(56.8)%

(58.0)%

(58.5)%

(68.5)%

(39.2)%

(48.0)%

(58.8)%

(61.4)%

(12.6)%

(20.2)%

(24.9)%

(16.7)%

(23.8)%

(6.5)%

(30.2)%

(30.1)%

(28.1)%

(20.0)%

(19.1)%

(26.6)%

(25.8)%

(26.3)%

(34.0)%

(5.8)%

(30.1)%

(25.6)%

4.7%

(8.3)%

(13.2)%

(12.9)%

(26.0)%

(19.8)%

(30.6)%

(16.2)%

(18.9)%

(26.8)%

(36.0)%

(40.8)%

(26.4)%

(34.3)%

(31.4)%

(42.1)%

(37.6)%

(14.7)%

(36.6)%

(61.9)%

Page 16: Goldman Sachs Presentation

16

Valuations Have Come Down DramaticallyValuations Have Come Down DramaticallyLast 12 MonthsLast 12 Months

Source: Goldman Sachs Research Nov-2008Source: Goldman Sachs Research Nov-2008

7.9

13.6

DJ Stoxx 600

(42)%

5.3

3.4

DJ Stoxx 600

1 Year Forward PE1 Year Forward PE

Dividend YieldsDividend Yields

17.4

12.3

16.914.9 14.1

12.9

15.8

10.2

19.617.3

10.48.9

7.29.7

7.6

11.5

8.26.9

12.511.3

Utilities Telecomservices

Materials Info Tech Industrials HealthCare

Financials Energy ConsumerStaples

ConsumerDisc

(40)%

3.1%

4.4%

2.2% 1.9%2.6% 2.9%

3.5% 3.8%

2.2% 2.2%

4.8%

6.5%6.1%

3.9%

5.0%

3.2%

5.2% 5.3%

3.3%3.7%

Utilities Telecomservices

Materials Info Tech Industrials HealthCare

Financials Energy ConsumerStaples

ConsumerDisc

Nov-2007 Nov-2008

Page 17: Goldman Sachs Presentation

17

Earnings Growth RevisionsEarnings Growth Revisions

Expected Earnings Growth and Earnings Revisions by Sector (%)Expected Earnings Growth and Earnings Revisions by Sector (%)

EPS GrowthEPS Growth EPS Revisions (One-month)EPS Revisions (One-month) EPS Revisions (YTD)EPS Revisions (YTD)

Sector Sector 2008E2008E 2009E2009E 2008E2008E 2009E2009E 2008E2008E 2009E2009E

Financial Services Financial Services (59.5)(59.5) 89.989.9 (16.4)(16.4) (6.3)(6.3) (37.7)(37.7) (23.3)(23.3)

Insurance Insurance (40.2)(40.2) 28.128.1 (20.4)(20.4) (13.3)(13.3) (35.2)(35.2) (25.3)(25.3)

Banks Banks (39.7)(39.7) 22.522.5 (16.3)(16.3) (17.9)(17.9) (48.8)(48.8) (43.5)(43.5)

Real Estate Real Estate 8.08.0 10.410.4 0.90.9 3.23.2 (8.0)(8.0) (15.4)(15.4)

Utilities Utilities (1.3)(1.3) 10.210.2 (0.2)(0.2) (2.8)(2.8) (4.1)(4.1) (3.5)(3.5)

Food & Beverage Food & Beverage 2.72.7 9.89.8 (0.4)(0.4) (2.0)(2.0) (7.0)(7.0) (8.3)(8.3)

Health Care Health Care 15.915.9 8.18.1 1.31.3 1.01.0 0.70.7 (2.6)(2.6)

Telecommunications Telecommunications 4.14.1 6.76.7 (0.9)(0.9) (1.7)(1.7) (1.2)(1.2) (3.8)(3.8)

Media Media 3.03.0 5.55.5 (1.1)(1.1) (3.5)(3.5) (7.3)(7.3) (11.6)(11.6)

Stoxx 600 Stoxx 600 (9.4)(9.4) 5.05.0 (6.9)(6.9) (11.7)(11.7) (18.3)(18.3) (21.8)(21.8)

Stoxx 600 ex Financials Stoxx 600 ex Financials 9.09.0 5.05.0 (2.7)(2.7) (9.9)(9.9) (1.7)(1.7) (11.8)(11.8)

Personal & Household Goods Personal & Household Goods 1.01.0 4.94.9 (4.4)(4.4) (7.9)(7.9) (10.8)(10.8) (15.2)(15.2)

Retail Retail (0.6)(0.6) 3.93.9 (1.5)(1.5) (4.3)(4.3) (12.1)(12.1) (18.5)(18.5)

Industrial Goods & Services Industrial Goods & Services 8.88.8 3.33.3 (2.3)(2.3) (11.1)(11.1) (4.0)(4.0) (19.8)(19.8)

Technology Technology 2.32.3 0.30.3 (5.1)(5.1) (14.1)(14.1) (27.9)(27.9) (31.9)(31.9)

Travel & Leisure Travel & Leisure (15.3)(15.3) (5.1)(5.1) (3.4)(3.4) (6.0)(6.0) (26.2)(26.2) (31.3)(31.3)

Chemicals Chemicals 19.319.3 (6.1)(6.1) (3.4)(3.4) (13.7)(13.7) 7.77.7 (6.0)(6.0)

Construction & Materials Construction & Materials (11.5)(11.5) (7.2)(7.2) (2.8)(2.8) (10.0)(10.0) (11.7)(11.7) (25.3)(25.3)

Basic Resources Basic Resources 25.725.7 (13.5)(13.5) (6.9)(6.9) (26.3)(26.3) 9.09.0 (6.9)(6.9)

Oil & Gas Oil & Gas 27.627.6 (14.4)(14.4) (1.8)(1.8) (11.8)(11.8) 18.718.7 1.31.3

Automobiles & Parts Automobiles & Parts (26.0)(26.0) (20.7)(20.7) (17.4)(17.4) (34.0)(34.0) (31.6)(31.6) (55.0)(55.0)

Source: IBES consensusSource: IBES consensus(a)(a) Upgrades less downgrades, as percentage of total estimates (last 4 weeks).Upgrades less downgrades, as percentage of total estimates (last 4 weeks).

Page 18: Goldman Sachs Presentation

18

Macro Outlook: Driving Equity Capital MarketsMacro Outlook: Driving Equity Capital Markets

Significant Growth Slowdown Expected in 2009Significant Growth Slowdown Expected in 2009

1.4%

0.8% 1.0% 1.2%

9.0%

6.4%

3.2%

0.8%

4.8%

7.5%

(1.6)%

(0.5)%(0.3)%

1.5%

(0.3)% (0.3)%

World France Germany UK Euro US China EM

2008E

2009E

GDP Annual Growth (in %)

%: Market Consensus%: GS Research

0.9%

0.5%

9.9%

1.4%1.0%0.8%

1.6%

8.8%

(0.1)%

(0.4)%(1.1)%

(0.3)%

Source: GS ResearchSource: GS Research

Page 19: Goldman Sachs Presentation

19

Analysis of Buy-Side CommunityAnalysis of Buy-Side Community

Hedge Fund AssetsHedge Fund Assets Mutual FundsMutual Funds

Source: Hedge Fund Research Global Hedge Fund Industry Report – Third Quarter 2008Source: Hedge Fund Research Global Hedge Fund Industry Report – Third Quarter 2008AMGAMG

2.82.82.82.93.33.43.43.43.53.5

0.91.11.21.3

1.41.41.31.31.31.4 3.94.0

4.2

4.74.84.84.9

3.7

4.64.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Oct-08

Sep-08

Aug-08

Jul-08

Jun-08

May-08

Apr-08

Mar-08

Feb-08

Jan-08

Eq

uit

y A

sset

s ($

tn)

US Funds Non-US Funds

$491$539

$626

$820

$973

$1,105

$1,465

$1,868

$1,722

$(100)

$300

$700

$1,100

$1,500

$1,900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q32008

($ in

bill

ion

s)

Net Asset Flow Assets

Page 20: Goldman Sachs Presentation

20

New Issuance Activity Continues, But More New Issuance Activity Continues, But More SelectivelySelectively

EMEA Volumes 2008 YTD ($bn)EMEA Volumes 2008 YTD ($bn)

15.3

65.2

3.4

14.711.7

23.1

70.4

3.3

16.1

2.5 2.43.19.5

13.53.0 16.1

26.4

5.6 0.1

7.82.2

0.2

0.0

5.2

3.0

1.2

0.40.3

5.9

29.4

2006 2007 2008YTD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

FO IPO

175.1

112.7

287.8

351.5

225.2

222.9 193.4

128.6

31.8

2008 YTD

Source: Dealogic, IFR and Bloomberg as of 26-NovSource: Dealogic, IFR and Bloomberg as of 26-Nov

Page 21: Goldman Sachs Presentation

B. Credit MarketsB. Credit Markets

Page 22: Goldman Sachs Presentation

22

Reduction in Market LiquidityReduction in Market Liquidity

Source: Goldman Sachs

Sub-prime

SIVs/Conduits

Monolines

CreditFunds

CLOs/CDOs

Credit

Banks

Banks

Banks

Mark to market losses CP funding evaporates Forced portfolio liquidations

CDS spreads widen dramatically Cash bonds underperform CDS Liquidation puts further pressure

on spreads IG Decompresses HY

Rating Agency downgrades

Emergency equity funding

Reduced risk appetite Limited underwriting Reduced balance sheet for flow Funding costs rise Counterparty risk increases

Senior financing hard to source Steep asset value falls Restructuring and liquidation

Knock-on from HF withdrawals

Money market fund liquidations

SIV/ConduitsSIV/Conduits

CreditCredit

Credit FundsCredit Funds

CLOs/CDOsCLOs/CDOs

BanksBanksMonolinesMonolines

Mark to market losses Capital write-downs Principal liquidations

BanksBanks

Page 23: Goldman Sachs Presentation

23

Global Policy Response in Q3 2008 Global Policy Response in Q3 2008 Stabilising Credit Spreads?Stabilising Credit Spreads?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan-2007 May-2007 Sep-2007 Feb-2008 Jun-2008 Nov-2008

iBoxx € Non-Financials A

iBoxx € Non-Financials BBB

iBoxx € Financials A

Credit Crunch Credit Crunch StartsStarts

UK Government UK Government Rescue PackageRescue Package

TARP AnnouncedTARP Announced

Lehman Lehman Bankruptcy / AIG Bankruptcy / AIG

BailoutBailout

BNP Freezes BNP Freezes MM MM

RedemptionsRedemptions

Monoline Monoline DowngradesDowngrades

Bear Stearns Bear Stearns BailoutBailout

Page 24: Goldman Sachs Presentation

24

Significant Bond MaturitiesSignificant Bond Maturitiesin 2009in 2009

Corporate redemptions 31% higher in 2009 vs. 2008Corporate redemptions 31% higher in 2009 vs. 2008 Significant competition from FIG and SSA issuers Significant competition from FIG and SSA issuers

Includes Redemptions from global issuers and transactions into the major currency markets (USD/GBP/EUR)Includes Redemptions from global issuers and transactions into the major currency markets (USD/GBP/EUR)Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic. Includes only European issues in USD/GBP/EUR with initial maturity higher than 18m Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic. Includes only European issues in USD/GBP/EUR with initial maturity higher than 18m and size higher than $100mand size higher than $100mNote: GBP redemptions converted into USD equivalent using an exchange rate of 2.0016 for 2007 and 1.9689 for 2008 Note: GBP redemptions converted into USD equivalent using an exchange rate of 2.0016 for 2007 and 1.9689 for 2008 and 2009. EUR redemptions converted into USD equivalent using an exchange rate of 1.3705 and 1.5336 for 2008 and and 2009. EUR redemptions converted into USD equivalent using an exchange rate of 1.3705 and 1.5336 for 2008 and 20092009

219180 186 189

251 217 238 209270

221 258186

113107 110 94

152150 122 158

208

107

196

142

8592 67 64

8986

5397

104

120

82

68

7152 65 58

7173

61

72

101

83

68

79

503

442 434410

572530

488

542

688

537

478

608

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Red

emp

tio

ns

Vo

lum

e (

US

D b

n E

qu

ival

ent)

SSA FIG Corporates Covered Bonds

Q1 2009 is one of the busiestQ1 2009 is one of the busiestredemption quarters everredemption quarters ever

2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009

Page 25: Goldman Sachs Presentation

25

New Issue Premiums Finding a New and Wider New Issue Premiums Finding a New and Wider EquilibriumEquilibrium

RWE (€1bn Jan-2019)(€1bn Nov-2013)

Philip Morris ($1.25bn

Mar-2014)

Altria ($1.4bn Nov-2008)

IBM (€750m Jan-2014)

GDF Suez (€900m Jan-2019)

Diageo ($1.5bn Jan-2013)

DSM (tap) (€200m Nov-15)

Saint Gobain (€750m Sep-2013)

Daimler (€750m Sep-2015)

Philip Morris (€750m Sep-2015)

Cargill (€500m Jul-2015)

Glencore (€750m Apr-2015)

Wolters Kluwer (€750m Apr-2018)

Diageo (€850m

Jul-2013)

KPN (€850m

Jan-2016)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

22-Feb-08 12-Apr-08 1-Jun-08 21-Jul-08 9-Sep-08 29-Oct-08 18-Dec-08

Sp

rea

d t

o C

DS

(B

as

is P

oin

ts)