Global Wood Products Trade - UNECE€¦ · Global Trade of Wood Products By Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section Geneva, Switzerland. International

International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China

Global Trade of Wood Products

By Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist

UNECE/FAO Timber SectionGeneva, Switzerland


Subjects

I. Overview of developmentsII. Global forest products market

trends (for roundwood)III. Trade flow trendsIV. Flooring market trendsV. Market driversVI. Future prospectsVII. Questions and discussion


Acknowledgements

• China National Forest Products Industry Association, especially– Mr. Zhang Senlin– Mr. Wu Shengfu

• Organizers and participants of this conference

• Reviewers in UNECE/FAO Timber Section, Geneva


Main sources of informationW

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

• UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2007-2008

• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database• FAO Statistics• State of Europe’s Forests 2007

by Ministerial Conference for the Protection of Forests in Europe/UNECE/FAO

• State of the World’s Forests 2009, FAO


• UN Comtrade validated by European Forest Institute• US Foreign Agricultural Statistics• Chinese Customs• State Forestry Agency, China• International Wood Markets Group• European Federation of the Parquet Industry

Main sources of information, continued


I. Overview of developments


Globalization of forest products trade

• Increasing affecting local economies, governments and organizations

• Positive for consumers• Negative for importing countries’

manufacturing


Global, with emphasis on major trade

• North America (Canada and US)• Latin America (Central and South

America only)• Europe• CIS (mainly Russian Federation)• Asia (mainly China)


UN Economic Commission for Europe region

Europe 42North America 2Commonwealth of Independent States, 12


II. Global forest products market trends


0

50

100

150

200

250

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006B

illio

n $

CIS North America Europe Asia Africa Latin America Oceania

Source: FAO, 2008.

+52%

$102billionEurope

Export Value of Wood and Paper Products Where do exports originate?


Source: National Association of Homebuilders, 2009.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

1000

hou

ses

Single family Multiple family

N. America’s dramatic downturn – US housing starts


Source: National Association of Homebuilders, 2009.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1000

hou

ses

Single family Multiple family

US housing starts

-33%


US New Single Family Homes: Starts & Inventories

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Source:

USCB

SF M

onth

ly H

ousi

ng S

tarts

(Bar

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mon

ths

Supp

ly (L

ine)

SF Housing StartsSF Unsold New Homes

US housing starts & unsold new houses

Source: US Census Bureau, via International Wood Markets Group, 2009.


Housing Starts:North America vs. Europe

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*

Source:CMHC / NAHB /

Euroconstruct

(Mill

ions

of U

nits

)

Europe

NorthAmerica

Housing starts: N. America vs. Europe

Sources: Canadian MNC, N. American Homebuilders Assn., Euroconstruct, via International Wood Markets Group, 2009.


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Non-wooden Post & beam Prefabricated 2 x 4

Japan’s housing starts

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation viaJapan Wood Products Information and Research Center, 2009


Russian wood and paper exports

0102030405060708090

100

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Mill

ion

m3

Roundwood Sawnwood Market pulp Paper and paperboard

Roundwood exports falling with taxes, forest sector reorganization

Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER database, 2008.


Import Value of Wood and Paper Products

0

50

100

150

200

250

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Bill

ion

$

CIS North America Europe Asia Africa Latin America OceaniaSource: FAOStat, 2008.

Where are importers?

China importsroundwoodand waste paper

Europe includes intra-regional trade


Trade Value Development by Major Region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

North America 1996

2006

Europe 19962006

Asia 19962006

Latin America 1996

2006

CIS 19962006

Bill

ion

$

Exports Imports Source: FAOStat, 2008.


China’s Wood and Paper Products Exports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Bill

ion

$

Source: International WOOD MARKETS Group, based on Chinese Customs, 2008.

Skyrocketing trend slowed in 2008in volume, but increased 6% in valuedue in part to RMB appreciation

Note: Includes sawnwood, panels, paper.


China’s Wood and Non-Wood Furniture Exports

Source: IBISWorld, 2008, and Tan, X. et al., 2007.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

*

$ bi

llion

Total furniture Wooden furniture* 2008 estimated


China’s Forest Products Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007M

illio

n m

3 or

m.t

Paper and paperboard Sawnwood Wood-based panels

Sources: FAOSTAT, 2008 and Tan, X. et al., 2007.


$5,653$3,157

$552

$237

$187

$147

$252

Source: FAO, 2008.

BrazilChile

ArgentinaUruguay

ColumbiaPeru

OtherS. American

forest products exports, 2006,

$ million

Brazil


III. Trade flow trends


Industrial Roundwood Trade Flows

05

1015202530354045

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006M

illio

n m3

Europe to Europe CIS to EuropeCIS to Asia Oceania to AsiaAsia to Asia Latin America to Europe

Source: UN Comtrade, FAO, 2008.

+300%


Industrial Roundwood Trade Flows

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006In

dex

(199

6=10

0)

Europe to Europe CIS to Europe CIS to AsiaOceania to Asia Asia to Asia Latin America to Europe

Source: UN Comtrade, FAO, 2008.


Global industrial roundwood vs. fuelwood

• Over half used as fuel– Domestic heating– Cooking

• Mostly in developing countries• Low value• Modern wood energy

– Small international trade– Growing market– Policy push in Europe


IV. Flooring market trends


Factors affecting demand and trade• Economic conditions,

mortgage (home loan) rates• Housing starts• Remodelling• Demand for wood flooring

vs. other flooring options


China's engineered flooring exports, value

Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

$ m

illio

n

US Japan Taiwan PoC Korea Rep Hong KongIsrael Spain UK Canada Other


China's engineered flooring exports, volume

* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

1000

m2

US Japan Taiwan PoC Korea Rep. Hong KongIsrael Spain UK Canada Other


China’s laminated flooring exports, value

050

100150200250300350400450

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

$ m

illio

n

US Korea Rep. Russia Canada TurkeyUkraine India Thailand S. Africa Other

* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.

Could shipments toCanadian ports bedestined for US?


China’s laminated flooring exports, volume

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

1000

m3

US Korea Rep. Russia Canada TurkeyUkraine India Thailand S. Africa Other

Converted from ton to m3 by 750kg/m3.Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.

* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.


China’s solid wood flooring exports, value

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

$ m

illio

nOtherHong KongKorea Rep.JapanUKCanadaUS

Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.

* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.

Could shipments toCanadian ports bedestined for US?


China’s solid wood flooring exports, volume

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

1000

tons

US Canada UK Japan Korea Rep. Hong Kong Other

Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.


China’s wood flooring production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mill

ion

m2

Laminated Engineered Solid BambooSource: State Forestry Administration, China, 2009.


Exporters of wood flooring and shaped wood

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$ m

illio

n

Africa China & Hong KongAsia CISEurope North AmericaSouth and Central America Other

Source: UN Comtrade, 2009.Note: Includes much more than flooring.


Importers of wood flooring and shaped wood

020406080

100120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$ m

illio

n

Africa China & Hong KongAsia CISEurope North AmericaSouth and Central America Other

Note: Includes much more than flooring. Source: UN Comtrade, 2009.


m2

Source: FEP, 2009.

European parquet production and consumption


European parquet consumption per capita

Source: FEP, 2009.


Mosaic3%

Multilayer76%

Lamparquet2%

Solid19%

Total parquet production per typePercentages for 2007

European parquet production, 2007

Source: FEP, 2009.


European species used, 2007

Source: FEP, 2009.


-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

overall construction industry

new

renovation

residential

non-residential

civil engineering

new residential

residential renovation

new non-residential

non-residential renovation

new civil engineering

civil engineering renovation

European construction sectors’ growth rates, 2007

Source: Euroconstruct, reported by FEP, 2009.


European construction market shares, 2007 civil

engineering renovation

7,2%

new residential 24,5%

residential renovation

22,8%new non-residential

18,7%

non-residential renovation

13,0%

new civil engineering

13,8%

Source: Euroconstruct, reported by FEP, 2009.


Source: USDA FAS, 2009.

US exports to Canada and Mexico

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ m

illio

n

US hardwood flooring exports to Canada and Mexico, value

Some shipments to Canadamay be re-shipped out of North America


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ m

illion

OceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaN. AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. AmericaCaribbean


US hardwood flooring exports to non-North America, value


US softwood flooring exports, value


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ 10

00

OceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaN. AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. AmericaCaribbeanN. America

Note softwood flooringexports to N. America may include re-export

Note softwood flooring1000 times less thanhardwood


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ m

illio

n

Oceania

SE Asia

S. Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

N. Africa

Middle East

E. Asia

CIS

Other Europe

EU-27

S. America

C. America

Caribbean

US hardwood flooring imports, value



US softwood flooring imports, value

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ m

illio

nOceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. AmericaN. America



US hardwood flooring exports to Canada and Mexico, volume

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1000

m2



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1000

m2

Oceania

SE Asia

S. Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

N. Africa

Middle East

E. Asia

CIS

Other Europe

EU-27

S. America

C. America

Caribbean

US hardwood flooring exports to non-North America, volume



US softwood flooring exports, volume


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1000

m2

Oceania

SE Asia

S. Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

N. Africa

Middle East

E. Asia

CIS

Other Europe

EU-27

S. America

C. America

Caribbean

N. America


US hardwood flooring imports from Canada and Mexico, volume

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1000

m2



US hardwood flooring imports from non-North American countries, volume


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1000

m2

OceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaN. AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. America


US softwood flooring imports, volume

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1000

m2

Oceania

SE Asia

S. Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East

E. Asia

CIS

Other Europe

EU-27

S. America

C. America

N. America



Russian flooring market• Parquet demand forecast to increase 84% by 2010• From 5.7 million m2 in 2007• To 10.5 million m2 in 2010• Market shares in 2007

– Tarkett (Germany) 17%– Grabo 7%– Woodpecker 7%

Source: Delovoi Petersburg, September 2008, as reported by Maskayu, of the Malaysian Timber Industry Board, September 2008.


IV. Market drivers

• Socio-economic factors• Currency rate variations• Green building programs• Public procurement• Social responsibility• Environmental consciousness• Climate change• Deforestation and afforestation• Alternative demands on forests


V. Future prospects

• Increased environmental consideration• Wood-based energy• Promotion of wood and paper products as

sustainable, recyclable materials• Continued long-term growth of forest products

markets


V. Future prospects (continued)

• CE marking for European Union flooring– March 2010– Certifies that product has met EU consumer

safety, health and environmental requirements

– Attention producers in EU and exporters to the EU!


V. Future prospects (continued)

• Laws, duties, tariffs, taxes, regulations

• Raw material costs

• Labour costs & benefits

• Manufacturing costs

• Goal: Raise standard of living and domestic consumption of wood products


V. Future prospects

• Greater harvests• Economic and trade recovery• Alternative demands on forestlands• Competition based on marketable attributes other than

price, for example corporate responsibility for– Social aspects– Environmental aspects, including certification of

sustainable supply sources• More research and development


VI. Discussion &

questions


Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist

UNECE/FAO Timber Section448 Palais des Nations

CH-1211 Geneva 10, SwitzerlandTel. +41 22 917 2872Fax +41 22 917 0041www.unece.org/[email protected]

Global Wood Products Trade - UNECE€¦ · Global Trade of Wood Products By Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section Geneva, Switzerland. International

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