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Global Warming: Concerns and Challenges for the Philippines The Third Jaime V. Ongpin Annual Memorial Lecture on Public Service in Business and Government Ateneo de Manila University 29 th September 2004
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Global Warming: Concerns and Challenges for the Philippines

Dec 31, 2015

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Global Warming: Concerns and Challenges for the Philippines. The Third Jaime V. Ongpin Annual Memorial Lecture on Public Service in Business and Government Ateneo de Manila University 29 th September 2004. Outline. Concerns: Problem of global warming & climate change - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Global Warming: Concerns and Challenges for the Philippines

The Third Jaime V. Ongpin Annual Memorial Lecture on Public Service in Business and

GovernmentAteneo de Manila University

29th September 2004

Page 2: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Outline

1. Concerns: Problem of global warming & climate change

2. Challenges: Responding to the problem

a) Types of responsesb) Role of the Citizenc) Role of the Stated) Role of the Market

Page 3: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

1. Problem of global warming & climate change

Page 4: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Historic Temperature Data

Page 5: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Adverse impacts of Climate Change

•Sea level riseMake many islands, coastal areas uninhabitable, displacing millions of people

•Wet seasons become wetter, dry seasons become drier

Disruption of water supplies, agriculture becoming unviable, famines

•More frequent and intense storms, heat waves, floods and droughts

Disasters that cause deaths, misery & economic damage

Page 6: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Adverse impacts of climate change

•Temperature extremesHuman health impacts (heat stress, more widespread vector-borne diseases like malaria & dengue, epidemics)

Health of ecosystems (e.g., forests & corals)

Page 7: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Climate Change and Environmental Impacts

Changes in temperature, weather patterns and sea level rise

Agriculture: Changes in crop yields

Irrigation demands,Productivity

Forests: Change in Ecologies,

Geographic range of species, and

Health and productivity

Coastal Areas: Erosion and flooding

InundationChange in wetlands

Water Resources: Changes in water supply

and water qualityCompetition/Trans-border

Issues

Human Health: Weather related

mortality Infectious disease

Air quality - respiratory illness

Industry and Energy:

Changes in Energy demand

Product demand & Supply

Page 8: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Visible ShortwavesTerrestrial Longwaves

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

H2O

CO2

CH4

N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

Page 9: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

150 100 50 0

Thousands of Years ago

Tem

per

atu

re c

han

ge

(oC

)

Car

bo

n d

ioxi

de

(pp

mv)

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature Change

Page 10: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Climate Change• Climate change is caused by both natural events (like

volcanic eruptions) and human activities

Page 11: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Human Sources of GHGs

Transportation

Energy GenerationIndustrial Processes

Land Use: Agriculture & Forestry

Carbon Dioxide (COCarbon Dioxide (CO22)) – Most prevalent GHGMethane (CHMethane (CH44)) – Second most common, 21x the potency of CO2

Nitrous Oxide (NNitrous Oxide (N22O)O) – 310x the potency of CO2

Other GasesOther Gases – HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 = range 600 – 23900x potency of CO2

Transport

Page 12: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

CO2

PhotosynthesisBurning

Page 13: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Waste as a source of GHG emissions

• Decaying solid waste in landfills emits methane

Page 14: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines
Page 15: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

24.8

25.0

25.2

25.4

25.6

25.8

26.0

26.2

26.4

26.6

26.8

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Tem

per

atu

re (

oC

)

Philippine temperatureshave been soaring

25.2

25.4

25.6

25.8

26.0

26.2

26.4

26.6

26.8

1901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40 1941-50 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90

Tem

per

atu

re (

C)

Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Page 16: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Vulnerability to Climate Change

El Niño - La Niña Vulnerability Map

Dry seasons becoming drier.

Wet seasons becoming wetter.

Page 17: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Philippine Rice Production. Arrows indicate El Niño events. (source: Food and Agricultural Organization)

Page 18: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Aerial Photo over DEM of Navotas at 0 m SLR

Navotas 1.0 m SLR

Aerial Photographs 1996 courtesy of NAMRIA, 3D Images generated by GeoView3D

Page 19: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

2. Responding to the problem of climate change

Page 20: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

2a. Types of responses

Page 21: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

AdaptationAdapt to the impacts of climate change which

are already presentExamples

• Coastal protection (sea walls?)• Better weather tracking and warning systems• Disaster preparedness• Disaster management• Better health care facilities• Better capabilities to manage epidemics• Improved irrigation systems• Insurance protection against natural disasters

Page 22: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Mitigation

• Reduce CO2 emissions from burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal) Transport Power generation Industries

• Capture GHG (CH4, N2O) emissions From solid waste From bio-mass

• Sequester carbon in forests

Page 23: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Sustainable Development

• Climate change as a problem of Sustainable

Development

• The poor as most vulnerable to the

negative impacts of climate change. Floods, droughts,

epidemics

• The poor are located in ecologically fragile areas

Page 24: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

2b. Role of the Citizen

Page 25: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

“Small things can stop something big like climate change” -- WWF

• Conserve energy.• Switch to compact

fluorescent lamps.• Use fans more,

airconditioners less.

• Take the bus or the MRT.

• Carpool.• Keep your vehicles

in tip-top shape.

• Support “green” electricity.

• Don’t leave water running.

• Don’t use narra. Support log bans.

• Reduce. Reuse. Recycle.

• Don’t burn your waste. Segregate.

• Save paper.

Page 26: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

2c. Role of the State

Page 27: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines
Page 28: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Mitigation

• Balancing the demands of economic growth and a less-carbon intensive economy

CO2 emissions

Economic Growth

Page 29: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Mitigation

• Promote the use of renewable energy sources

• Promote reforestation and afforestation• Promote solid waste management• Promote fuel-switching to less carbon-

intensive fuels (e.g., CNG, Coco-diesel)• Promote energy efficient electrictiy

transmission• Promote end-use energy efficiency

Page 30: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Adaptation

• Better weather tracking and warning systems

• Disaster preparedness• Disaster management• Better health care facilities• Better capabilities to manage

epidemics• Improved irrigation systems

Page 31: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

2d. Role of the Market

Page 32: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Lessening the discord between market & environment• Use market-based mechanisms to

achieve environmental goals Market-based mechanisms

• Achieving environmental goals• At least cost

• Emerging market mechanism: CDM Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

of the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change

Page 33: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Kyoto Protocol:Flexibility Mechanisms

Present day

2012 (BaU)

Assigned Amounts

Joint Implementation

Developed Country GHG EmissionsClean Development

Mechanism

2012 with KP

- 5%

1990 level

Domestic Actions

Emission Trading

Page 34: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Clean Development Mechanism

• Allows developed countries to invest in carbon emission reduction projects in developing countries

• These emission reduction projects must Assist developing countries in achieving

sustainable development Generate carbon reduction credits for

the investors from developed countries

Page 35: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Simplistic CDM example

Provide electricity for a barangay• “Business-as-usual” (baseline):

Diesel generator sets Cost of project $10 Emissions 1 tCO2

• Cleaner project (CDM-eligible): Micro-hydro Cost of project $13 Zero Emissions

Page 36: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Simplistic CDM example

• CDM Investor (e.g. Japan) Invests $3 ($13-$10, difference between

cleaner and business-as-usual project)

Gains Certificate of Emissions Reduction of 1 tCO2, which it can meet some of its Kyoto Protocol commitments to reduce emissions

Page 37: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Simplistic CDM example

WIN – WIN – WIN• WIN for the host country

Sustainable development benefit: Cleaner energy production technology

• WIN for the CDM investor country Credits for carbon emissions reduction

• WIN for the Global Environment Reduction of carbon emissions, a globe

pollutant

Page 38: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines
Page 39: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

39

Sustainability … means leaving Sustainability … means leaving something for our childrensomething for our children

Page 40: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

“The worst is not that we may be overwhelmed by disaster,

but to fail to live by principle.” - W. Beckett

Page 41: Global Warming:  Concerns and Challenges  for the Philippines

Daghang salamat!!

Roberto C. Yap, S.J., Ph.D.Environmental Economist

Institute on Church and Social Issues,klima Climate Change Center,and Department of Economics

Ateneo de Manila UniversityTel +63 2 426-6144Fax +63 2 426-6070

[email protected]