Global Warming

Global Warming

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Thought of the Day

What is Ihsan?The Prophet (PBUH) said, 'That you worship Allah as if you see Him, for if you don't see Him then truly He sees you.‘

Hadith

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It’s alright to be confused

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What do scientists know that the rest of us don’t?

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The Earth Systems

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Global Climate System Components

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The Basic Questions

What controls Earth’s temperature?How is climate changing?Is Global Warming due to humans?What will it be like in your lifetime?

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Three ways to change the temperature of a planet

Change inputa) Solar variability

Change outputb) Earth reflectivity (albedo)c) Greenhouse gas concentrations

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The Greenhouse EffectNatural greenhouse gases make the

Earth warm and moderate enough for life (water).

The atmosphere absorbs and re-radiates outgoing Earth radiation.

Some Greenhouse gases• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)

• Water vapor (H2O)

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Atmospheric Absorption Bands

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The Atmospheric Window

• CO2 absorbs outgoing IR radiation and re- radiates back to Earth

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The Story of Planets

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/wallpaper/art/pia06890-1600-1200.jpg

Earth (~150 million km)

Mars (~229 million km)

Venus (~108 million km)

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The Story of Planets

Venus Earth Mars

450°C 15°C -55°C(would be -18°C without natural greenhouse effect)

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The Keeling Curve

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The Present CO2 Level

• March 2013:397.34 ppm

• March 2012:

394.45 ppm

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How CO2 concentration is measured

(left) CO2 Extraction Rack. (middle) Researchers at the lab measure the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in air sent in weekly from sites that are part of an international air sampling network. (right) locations of stations for flasks collected for CO2 and CO2 isotope measurements.

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Past relationships between atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature

• earth climate sensitivity to past variations in atmospheric CO2 by drilling into ice sheets

• Ice sheets record past concentrations of atmospheric CO2 by trapping bubbles of ancient air as the ice sheet forms

• The figure shows the relationship between CO2 in the atmosphere and surface temperatures over Antarctica spanning the last 150,000 years

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Ice Core containing tiny bubbles of Ancient Air

Scientists collecting ice core samples in Antarctica. An Antarctic ice core. A slice of ice core containing tiny bubbles of ancient air.

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Ice Core Data from Antarctica going back 800,000 YBP

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WHEN WAS CO2 LAST AT TODAY’S LEVEL, AND WHAT WAS THE WORLD LIKE THEN?

• most recent estimates suggest that between 5.2 and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene)

• the CO2 conc.in atm reached between 330-400 ppm • global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now• sea levels higher by 10 – 25 meters • implying that global ice volume was much less than

today

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Lake sediments, Tree rings and Coral reefs for CO2 concentration records

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Multi-Model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming

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Ice Core Era contains no periods with concentrations of CO2 comparable to those of the next century

(left) Atmospheric CO2 conc as observed at Mauna Loa from 1958 to 2008 (black dashed line) and projected under the 6 SRES marker and illustrative scenario (IPCC). (right) CO2 conc derived from EPICA and Vostok ice cores. Red bar indicates Mauna Loa measureents.

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Projection of CO2 and Temperature to 2100

• projection of the magnitude of future CO2 levels due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use changes

• Note that global CO2 levels will be doubled from the pre-Industrial value (~290 ppm) in about 70 years or by ~2075.

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Where CO2 comes from and goes to

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Emissions & Sinks

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Global Warming• Global warming increased emissions

of greenhouse gases. • Scientists agree that earth's surface

has warmed by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years.

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the earth's surface temperature

• Increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas

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Kyoto Protocol• The result of negotiations at the third

Conference of the Parties (COP-3) in Kyoto, Japan, in December of 1997.

• Sets binding greenhouse gas emissions targets for countries that sign and ratify the agreement.

The gases covered under the Protocol include • carbon dioxide• methane• nitrous oxide• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)• pduorocarbons (PFCs)• sulfur hexafluoride

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Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms

1. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

2. Joint Implementation (JI)

3. International Carbon Trading (ICT)

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Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

• A Kyoto Protocol program that enables industrialized countries to finance emissions avoiding projects in developing countries and receive credit for reductions achieved against their own emissions limitation targets

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Joint Implementation (JI)

• Agreements made between two or more nations under the auspices of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) whereby a developed country can receive "emissions reduction units' when it helps to finance projects that reduce net emissions in another developed country (including countries with economies in transition)

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Emissions Trading/Carbon Trading• The creation of surplus emission

reductions at certain stacks, vents, or similar emissions sources

• the use of this surplus to meet or redefine pollution requirements applicable to other emission sources

• allows one source to increase emissions when another source reduces them

• maintaining an overall constant emission level

• Facilities that reduce emissions substantially may "bank" their "credits" or sell them to other industries

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Carbon FootprintTotal amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases such as • methane (CH4), • nitrous oxide (N2O), • hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), • perfluorocarbons (PFCs), • sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) • emitted directly and indirectly to

support human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, livestock raising, and agricultural production

Ten Signs of a Warming World

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1 Air Temperature over Land

• Weather stations on land show that average air temperature at the surface is going up.

• Consequently, we see an increase in the number of heat wave events and the area affected by drought.

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2 Air Temperature over Oceans

• Thermometers on ships and floating buoys show that air near the ocean's surface is getting warmer, increasing its ability to evaporate water.

• In turn, we see an increase in heavy precipitation events and flooding on land

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3 Arctic Sea Ice

• Satellite images show that the area covered by sea ice in the Arctic is getting smaller.

• Ice-free shipping routes and newly established access to oil resources increase the risk of damage to this sensitive environment, and habitat for marine animals is threatened

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4 Glaciers

• Historical paintings, photographs, and other long-term records show that most mountain glaciers are melting away.

• People who depend on water from melting glaciers for their living needs, crops, and livestock are facing potential shortages.

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5 Global Sea Level

• Tide gauges and satellites that measure the distance from their orbit to the ocean's surface both show that global sea level is getting higher.

• Rising waters threaten ecosystems, freshwater supplies, and human developments along coasts.

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6 Humidity

• Measurements over land and water show increasing humidity, more water vapor in the air.

• Air feels stickier when its hot and air conditioners have to work harder.

Water Vapor July 2002-March 2013

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7 Ocean Heat Content

• Temperature sensors on thousands of floats that move through the ocean show an increase in heat energy stored in the top half mile of water.

• Warmer ocean water damage coral reefs and change marine ecosystems, disrupting fisheries and people depending on them

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8 Sea Surface Temperatures

• Satellite sensors and thermometers on ships show that temperature of water at the ocean’s surface is rising.

• Warmer surface water can increase the destructive potential of tropical cyclones and hurricanes

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9 Snow

• Satellite images show that the area of land covered by snow during spring in the Northern Hemisphere is getting smaller.

• Snow is melting earlier, changing when and how much water is available for nature and people.

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10 Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere

• Measurements from satellites and weather balloons show that the lowest layer of the atmosphere—where we live is warming

• Greenhouse gases are building up in this layer, trapping heat radiated from Earth's surface and raising the planet's temperature.

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Climate Models

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Climate of PakistanRainfall Distribution

Monsoon (June, July, Aug, Sept) Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb)

65% of Annual Rainfall 25% of Annual Rainfall

Monsoonal Zone

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Climate of Pakistan

Pakistan is prone to Extreme Weather Events or Disasters, such as• Heavy Rains/River Flooding• Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding• Urban Flooding• Snow-melt Flooding• Cyclones/Coastal Flooding

In Pakistan, more than 70% Extreme Weather Events are associated with Monsoon SeasonIt is very important to focus on Monsoon Rainfall Changes and Weather patterns of the region

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Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall ShiftMONSOON – Rainfall Distribution (1961-1990)

MonsoonalZone

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Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall ShiftMONSOON – Rainfall Distribution (1991-2010)

MonsoonalZone

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Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall ShiftMONSOON – Rainfall Trend (Westward Shift)

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Earth DayApril 22, 2013

Thank You